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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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I'm seriously not making it up. :D

 

But hey, I "won" the last storm...you'll win this one. We're even now. :)

:lol: banding does look better on this side of town. Gonna finish the pancakes and eggs I just made, then gonna head out and measure and get a head start on shoveling. 

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IWX update. So want to put up that Blizzard Warning, but...

 

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST/HEADLINES THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER THE AREA WITH CYCLOGENESIS WELL
UNDERWAY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
IMPRESSIVE...AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING...CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. PHASING OF INTENSE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL FORCE
FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
THIS EVENING. 12Z MODELS CONTINUED EARLIER NOTED TREND OF JUST A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WEST...NOT UNUSUAL WITH THESE STRONGLY
PHASED...NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT EXPECT MAINLY
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
EXCEPTIONAL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FGEN AXIS WITH MIXING RATIOS
APPROACHING 4 G/KG IS ALREADY GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2"/HOUR
IN THE HEAVIEST BAND. VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...STILL EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OUR
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BRING LIGHTER
WINDS AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS TO OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
BUT NORTHWEST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...COULD SEE ENOUGH
WIND/FLUFFIER SNOW TO GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HI-RES MODELS
ALSO STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT BAND TO
MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING THAT COULD FURTHER DECREASE VISIBILITIES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
AN UPGRADE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
EFFECT BAND DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HARD IN WSW AND RE-EVALUATE WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AGAIN...BEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN OUR
NORTHWEST THIRD FROM ROUGHLY 00-06Z THIS EVENING.

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Got 1" last night from the fgen band, lol.

My final call fOr YYZ, 1". Take it or leave it! And if it ends up raining, which it will, I retire being a Toronto weather enthusiast.

It will end up raining over the GTA but to say that we will get nothing this evening/tonight just makes little sense based on surface OBS and short range modelling. I understand your frustration, but common.

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