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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Sounds fair. Hopefully it's a nice finish for you. What a nice great run you've been on lately. Incredible really.

 

 

yep, kind of feels like its' been snowing for weeks. 

 

snow definitely of the lighter fluffier variety than what was falling last night. Nice little band flaring up again.

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My latest p&c has 9-15" totals. Beautiful. 

 

Today: Snow with areas of blowing snow. Temperature falling to around 22 by 5pm. West wind 6 to 16 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. 

Tonight: Snow with areas of blowing snow before 1am, then areas of blowing snow and scattered snow after 1am. Low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -38. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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Might be tight for a brief period for Indy. Latest Aviation discussion talking about the possibility of [expletive] mixing in. Other than that, all systems go.

 

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER WILL CREATE EXTREMELY POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW NOW FALLING AT ALL TERMINALS. SNOW WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND GRADUALLY HEAVIER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER TODAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH THE SNOW OR EVEN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THE MIXED PRECIP IS KBMG AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH
RAIN/SNOW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIR
COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO KIND THAT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WITH SLEET
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KBMG.

SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING ALOFT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNDER THE HEAVIEST
BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE 1/4SM AND +SN AT ALL BUT KBMG FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY THEN
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH
SNOW COMING TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT. EVEN AS SNOW ENDS...THE
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN BLOWING SNOW ALL NIGHT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERSISTING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.

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3" so far.

 

Rap has -30 -40 UVV for 2-3 hours centered on H5 with an epic band from 10-1pm.

 

with elevated cape 200mb deep.

 

So I feel confident with my 15-17" call.

 

 

I'm changing my call to 17-20" for my backyard.

 

Good luck everyone.

don't back down now.

u nailed this storm! CONGRATS!

 

edit: and roger smith who made a drive by post, making bold predictions and then disappeared....lol

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lol I wasn't sure what I said.  Picked up 1.5" in the last hour.  Vis down to 500FT now.

 

 

The vort max is about to go berserk.

 

Lightening now picking up to my SW in the monster band the RAP is showing developing the next few hours.

 

If ratios get to 20-1 by 10AM.  I think 17" will be attained.

 

17-1 so far.

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