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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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  On 1/5/2014 at 5:02 AM, GordoFabulous said:

You're heading up.  I'm heading down.  I was thinking 10-12" in MIE earlier, but looking at the 0z models and the fact that we are 3C warmer than modeled right now, I think 6-8" is more likely.  Hopefully the precip rates will deal with the warm layer, but 850 warmth always seems to be undermodeled, and I don't put much faith in precip rates.

 

I've never experienced a 1'+ snowfall, and this looks like it may be another epic miss for Muncie.

 

 

Yeah man, it's so close.  Good luck there.

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  On 1/5/2014 at 4:50 AM, blizzardof96 said:

Tough to tell with the 12 hours maps. 0z CMC looks slightly east of its track and has a major gradient setup. 4-6" for the GTA with near 12" up towards Barrie.

attachicon.gifcmc_snow_acc_toronto_8.png

 

Is there any way you can put up that map for Northern Ohio? I was about to write this off where I live but extrapolating the heavy snow area downward, it looks like I might luck out after all if the CMC verifies. It would be much appreciated.

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  On 1/5/2014 at 4:26 AM, Jonger1150 said:

I'm thinking that total is very possible here too... This band tonight is overachieving.

 

 

Yep.

Models are finally picking up on pre big dog snows with snow blowing up just South of the stl metro and moving ENE.

 

RAP is finally pick up on pre big dog FGEN band here the next 6-8 hours.

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decent amount in north central IL

 

RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
1111 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2014  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
1100 PM SNOW SOMONAUK 41.63N 88.68W  
01/04/2014 M4.4 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC  
 
STORM TOTAL SO FAR RELAYED VIA TWITTER.  
 

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  On 1/5/2014 at 5:19 AM, cyclone77 said:

Payback for that 3" of rain with temp of 33-36 a few weeks ago? 

 

I suppose. We're not really worthy. Seriously. Things have have gone very well in LAF with big storms in the past 7 years, for the most part. Not that I won't enjoy this immensely if it comes to fruition. :)

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  On 1/5/2014 at 5:37 AM, Stevo6899 said:

Millions are a comin. At a friends at 16 (metro pkwy) and garfield and I'm surprised its snowing here. Didn't think this band was going to come south of 59 until morning. looks like half an inch.

Yeah, true. I can't complain because I-94 has been doing amazing up to this point. Like a magnet.

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  On 1/5/2014 at 5:52 AM, The_Global_Warmer said:

RAP is wetter and slower every run.

 

Going to be a band of 15-22" from South St. Louis up towards LAF

 

 

RAP_255_2014010504_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

 

No there won't.  12-16" with isolated higher amounts, but 15-22" in a general band is overdone.  Ratios aren't high enough to support a forecast like that.  Could be some isolated reports with extreme amounts but nothing supports 15-22"  in the main swath.

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