Jonger Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think this thread is jumping the shark. You can always tell if its a good day or bad day by who posted first on the day. When I see certain names on the "New Post" line at 6am, I know whether temps jumped or fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Starting to look like a breed of 2009 and 1997 as far as the orientation of the warm pool goes, only we're months ahead of where we were during both of those cases..in fact the the coupling between perhaps the strongest KW in modern history, and the various atmospheric parameters (Walker cell migration, MJO, and the QBO transition to negative which will cool the equatorial stratosphere) is unprecedented since our observations of this stuff began. I think this entails something significant...exactly what..I'm not sure. Hopefully this isn't another abrupt climate shift reminiscent of the early Holocene..that would not be good for humanity.. It will just increase the baseline by another 5/100th of a degree C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Can anyone give us a weatherbell update? It's gotta be pretty high at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 ENSO continues to inch towards surface warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Parts of Russia are getting the March of 2012 treatment. 20C+ daily means are pretty damn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Weather bell dailies still hovering around +.35c since last update month is at +.061c ill try to do update at least once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Did the weatherbell CFS maps go premium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Weather bell dailies still hovering around +.35c since last update month is at +.061c ill try to do update at least once a week. Thanks really appreciate at it man. I expected March to get warm the 2nd half but not this much. The Russian torch dies down towards the end of the month so that should offer some relief on the global scale. The AAO really goes very positive too which should cool down Antarctica as well. However in return the Southern Ocean should warm up + ENSO warming + NH Spring warming. GISS had a .60C+ last year for March and a .48C+ for April. The way it looks right now I'd say March will be around .65C+. AMSU channel 6 temps are now warmest on record for this date. So there is definitely lower troposphere warming going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thanks really appreciate at it man. I expected March to get warm the 2nd half but not this much. The Russian torch dies down towards the end of the month so that should offer some relief on the global scale. The AAO really goes very positive too which should cool down Antarctica as well. However in return the Southern Ocean should warm up + ENSO warming + NH Spring warming. GISS had a .60C+ last year for March and a .48C+ for April. The way it looks right now I'd say March will be around .65C+. AMSU channel 6 temps are now warmest on record for this date. So there is definitely lower troposphere warming going on. No problem month should push over +.100c within a few days on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That is pretty crazy. There is a cold shot coming over the CONUS which will help off set some of the warming. amsu channel 6 temps had another big jump today. Well out in front now. which is not surprising given the ridging over Eurasia and the warm ssta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That is pretty crazy. There is a cold shot coming over the CONUS which will help off set some of the warming. amsu channel 6 temps had another big jump today. Well out in front now. which is not surprising given the ridging over Eurasia and the warm ssta. Definitely a sustained warm. I don't recall Weatherbell CFS ever hovering beyond 0.30c for more than a few days. Makes you wonder how warm it will become under a weak or moderate el nino condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't recall Weatherbell CFS ever hovering beyond 0.30c for more than a few days. Makes you wonder how warm it will become under a weak or moderate el nino condition. Looks like the last time we saw sustained of +.3K was back in 2010, probably related to that big El Niño..so it's been awhile. It'll be interesting to see how long this warm spell lasts, and whether or not it's the start of something more significant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Massive ongoing global torch. You can also see new interesting patterns in the ENSO regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is probably caused IMO. It was about 10 years of AGW upper ocean warming in 2 years. It would have taken close to a decade for the heat to dissipate from the upper ocean whether the earth was in an imbalance in not. In fact, the positive energy imbalance meant that we returned to equilibrium faster because on the one hand the heat was dissipating naturally and on the other, AGW was increasing RF, and eventually the two met in the middle. It would have taken even longer to cool back down to a pre-1998 state. Yeah that was kinda my point. I guess if you want to say that the 1998 ENSO sped up the warming in the oceans over that period of then I'm fine with it but I have a problem with that being referred to as causing a climate shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 These are amsu channel 6 temps from 2002-2014. 03/20 -999.000 237.360 237.439 237.337 237.267 237.191 236.896 237.092 237.769 236.956 237.202 237.175 237.528 I was wrong about it being the warmest I overlooked 2010. It is 2nd to 2010 and is still on a upward trend attm. March and April of 2010 were .88C and .83C on GISS. This year March won't be anywhere near that. But it's looking likely to be around .70C+ on GISS even with the very cool start to March. The Trimonthly ONI index average before March of 2010 was 1.5C+. February isn't out as far as I can see but Dec was -0.4C and Jan was -0.7C. Feb will probably be around -0.6C. Last year March was .60C and April was .48C on GISS. So 2013 and 2014 are tied. But 2014 is about to pull way ahead by the time we get threw April. Eurasian Snow Cover is in terrible shape. The current anomalies are pretty large themselves but they do little justice to how bad the snow pack over there is. NA attm has a surplus but it won't stay that way or stay in a manner to help off set the Eurasian yearly decline. Last April had a great pattern in NA to stay relatively cool that is not looking anywhere near the case this year. The arctic is progged to continue to blow torch. Luckily Eurasia is expected to cool off. Maybe this will help the snow cover not get decimated before we barely get into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 CPC updated. And the sub surface continues to rapidly warm and spread East. OHC is about 1.275C+. IIRC it reached around 0.9C+ in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah that was kinda my point. I guess if you want to say that the 1998 ENSO sped up the warming in the oceans over that period of then I'm fine with it but I have a problem with that being referred to as causing a climate shift. Skierinvermont is correct, it did cause a major shift in the Hadley and Ferrel Circulations around the globe. That is undeniable. It doesn't take much at all to force abrupt climate change, looking at history. If you don't think shifts in ENSO and the related tropical forcings were part of the great climate swings of the early-middle Holocene, what do you think caused them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Global ssta have started to warm substantially. They are actually slightly lower than this time last year. But that is going to change by the next update. Unless it's an error over the last 3-4 days a huge region of the tropical equatorial belt on the Earth has warmed up big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looks exactly the same as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looks exactly the same as last year. Weatherbell CFS is starting to pull away from last year, and by a large margin. SSTA should respond in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Just as I would expect with the northern hemisphere and artic warming the most and the southern hemisphere and antartic not nearly as much due to much less land area with more ocean with strong cold currents around antartica soaking up the extra heat and keeping the antartic cut off from the rest of the worlds climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Just as I would expect with the northern hemisphere and artic warming the most and the southern hemisphere and antartic not nearly as much due to much less land area with more ocean with strong cold currents around antartica soaking up the extra heat and keeping the antartic cut off from the rest of the worlds climate. Interesting post, the Antarctica region experiences various cycles like most other areas. It has been warm and cold this year, up to 1.30c at times and as low as 0.20c. It seems the Arctic continues to torch more every year while the Antarctic hangs around 1.00c above baseline. There is definitely a growing contrast between temperatures in the Northern and Southern hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere will require more time to respond to CO2 and other GHG forcings as it contains a larger amount of water surface area. Keep in mind, these temperature anomalies are derived on a 1979-2000 baseline. In reality, the arctic is actually at record temperatures and is about 5c warmer than it was during pre-industrial times as of March 25th. This would be massive and unprecedented on any time scale outside of a human lifetime. Good news is that things look to cool down a bit globally next week, including the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Interesting post, the Antarctica region experiences various cycles like most other areas. It has been warm and cold this year, up to 1.30c at times and as low as 0.20c. It seems the Arctic continues to torch more every year while the Antarctic hangs around 1.00c above baseline. There is definitely a growing contrast between temperatures in the Northern and Southern hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere will require more time to respond to CO2 and other GHG forcings as it contains a larger amount of water surface area. Keep in mind, these temperature anomalies are derived on a 1979-2000 baseline. In reality, the arctic is actually at record temperatures and is about 5c warmer than it was during pre-industrial times as of March 25th. This would be massive and unprecedented on any time scale outside of a human lifetime. Good news is that things look to cool down a bit globally next week, including the arctic. Why is 5C above average in the arctic on March 25 massive and unprecedented? That's just a single day. What's unprecedented is receiving such anomalies for an entire month and the ~2.5C of warming that has occurred since 1900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Why is 5C above average in the arctic on March 25 massive and unprecedented? That's just a single day. What's unprecedented is receiving such anomalies for an entire month and the ~2.5C of warming that has occurred since 1900. Seems to be a record for the date, forgive me for not being able to pull up the data to prove it. Indeed I agree with your latter points about the arctic situation. I recall some studies calling for a +13C rise by 2100 in the arctic, seems a bit conservative when you factor in fast and slow feedbacks. http://www.rtcc.org/2014/02/21/arctic-temperatures-could-increase-by-13c-by-2100/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 Why is 5C above average in the arctic on March 25 massive and unprecedented? That's just a single day. What's unprecedented is receiving such anomalies for an entire month and the ~2.5C of warming that has occurred since 1900. I assume you're referring to the rate of warming since 1900? Current temperatures in the Arctic are not (yet) remarkably warm compared to the early-middle Holocene. Though at this rate it won't be long..maybe by 2050-2075: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162?np=y Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies generally suggest a reduction in sea ice during parts of the early and middle Holocene (∼6000–10,000 years BP) compared to present day conditions. This sea ice minimum has been attributed to the northern hemisphere Early Holocene Insolation Maximum (EHIM) associated with Earth's orbital cycles. Here we investigate the transient effect of insolation variations during the final part of the last glaciation and the Holocene by means of continuous climate simulations with the coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean column model CCAM. We show that the increased insolation during EHIM has the potential to push the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover into a regime dominated by seasonal ice, i.e. ice free summers. The strong sea ice thickness response is caused by the positive sea ice albedo feedback. Studies of the GRIP ice cores and high latitude North Atlantic sediment cores show that the Bølling–Allerød period (c. 12,700–14,700 years BP) was a climatically unstable period in the northern high latitudes and we speculate that this instability may be linked to dual stability modes of the Arctic sea ice cover characterized by e.g. transitions between periods with and without perennial sea ice cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Wxbell dailies slowly came down from last update sitting around +.20c month to date is +.096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059520/abstract The influence of different El Niño types on global average temperature Abstract[1] The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to influence surface temperatures worldwide. El Niño conditions are thought to lead to anomalously warm global average surface temperature, absent other forcings. Recent research has identified distinct possible types of El Niño events based on the location of peak sea surface temperature anomalies. Here we analyze the relationship between the type of El Niño event and the global average temperature anomaly, using three historical temperature datasets. Separating El Niño events into types reveals that the global average surface temperatures are anomalously warm during and after traditional Eastern Pacific El Niño events, but not Central Pacific or Mixed events. Historical analysis indicated that slowdowns in the rate of global surface warming since the late-1800 s may be related to decadal variability in the frequency of different types of El Niño events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 OHC was revised slightly upwards for the week of the 19th from 1.275C+ to near 1.4C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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