2014 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Familiar trend that now reoccurs around the solstice in both hemispheres. It seems the AGW forcing is amplified during the summer.

 

 

The Indian ocean is going to be roasting as we go into January.

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

The Indian ocean is going to be roasting as we go into January.

 

Possible connection to the recent historic flooding in Malayasia?

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/severe-flooding-hits-malaysia-forcing-record-evacuations-n275216

[chubbs]

UK met office is predicting another record-breaking year for 2015 with central estimate of 0.64. Through November this year is averaging 0.56 vs last years  Met Office estimate of 0.57.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

[nflwxman]

UK met office is predicting another record-breaking year for 2015 with central estimate of 0.64. Through November this year is averaging 0.56 vs last years  Met Office estimate of 0.57.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

Thanks for the link chubbs.  That central estimate represents a pretty large jump between 2014 and 2015.  The met office essentially must believe the hiatus is coming to a close with that type of projection.

[chubbs]

Thanks for the link chubbs.  That central estimate represents a pretty large jump between 2014 and 2015.  The met office essentially must believe the hiatus is coming to a close with that type of projection.

Just checking the past couple of years, they were close this year but too high in 2013

[frontranger8]

Just checking the past couple of years, they were close this year but too high in 2013

 

I believe they have a history of mostly being too high.

[csnavywx]

I believe they have a history of mostly being too high.

Actually, of the last 5 years, 2013 was the only one that was off by any significant margin whatsoever. So, please clarify this statement. Personally, I don't consider an error of .03 to be meaningful at all.

 

So far this year (through Nov), they're dead on.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think they're predicting a multi-year El Niño. The statistical modeling on the CPC page doesn't really support that idea, though.

If we can maintain the El Niño, I could see another record. If not, then I don't think it's going to happen.

[chubbs]

We are headed into 2015 with warmer ENSO and SST vs. last year. So another record is likely in 2015 unless a La Nina develops next summer

[nflwxman]

We are headed into 2015 with warmer ENSO and SST vs. last year. So another record is likely in 2015 unless a La Nina develops next summer

Agreed. We should probably set up a 2015 global temperatures contest.  2014 looks to be heading for .67 on GISS.

[StudentOfClimatology]

We are headed into 2015 with warmer ENSO and SST vs. last year. So another record is likely in 2015 unless a La Nina develops next summer

Are you referring to the satellites or surface datasets? The former tends to lag ENSO.

If the statistical modeling is correct, ENSO will be cooling through 2015, below 2014 levels. What's going to counteract that?

[frontranger8]

Actually, of the last 5 years, 2013 was the only one that was off by any significant margin whatsoever. So, please clarify this statement. Personally, I don't consider an error of .03 to be meaningful at all.

 

So far this year (through Nov), they're dead on.

 

There's nothing to clarify. They have a history of guessing high, even if it's not by much some years. 

 

Go back and look at the past 10-15 years of their forecasts. You will see I am correct.

[csnavywx]

There's nothing to clarify. They have a history of guessing high, even if it's not by much some years. 

 

Go back and look at the past 10-15 years of their forecasts. You will see I am correct.

Sure there is. Add in coverage sparse areas and I would bet dollars to donuts that they'd end up low. No way to twist out of that one. In fact, they've mentioned that explicitly in the past.

 

Cowtan and Way are already doing just that.

[frontranger8]

Sure there is. Add in coverage sparse areas and I would bet dollars to donuts that they'd end up low. No way to twist out of that one. In fact, they've mentioned that explicitly in the past.

 

Cowtan and Way are already doing just that.

 

Uh, shouldn't they be factoring their coverage area into their forecast, since it's for their data?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, if metoffice is forecasting for their own global temp metric, then there is no real excuse to say "they had lower data coverage in the arctic than GISS"...they know that already.

[csnavywx]

Yeah, if metoffice is forecasting for their own global temp metric, then there is no real excuse to say "they had lower data coverage in the arctic than GISS"...they know that already.

 

I'm uncertain on their exact methods of coming up with the forecast myself, but I assume it includes their in-house climate model as input. Unless they're purposefully adjusting their forecasts down to account for coverage bias, it's gonna be too high when using HADCRUT as verification. I kinda doubt this is reflected in the actual forecast based on comments they've made in the past when questioned about being "too warm". The magnitude and sign of error is sufficiently small to be explained by that alone.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Indian ocean is roasting.

 

Looks like December is going to come in around a 0.75C on GISS.

 

Would be the 7th month this year at or above 0.70C+ on GISS.

 

September is now at .81C+.

 

 

GISS, NCDC, and hadley are all locks for a new record now pending future revisions.

 

UAH is likely to end up 3rd warmest.

 

[frontranger8]

I'm uncertain on their exact methods of coming up with the forecast myself, but I assume it includes their in-house climate model as input. Unless they're purposefully adjusting their forecasts down to account for coverage bias, it's gonna be too high when using HADCRUT as verification. I kinda doubt this is reflected in the actual forecast based on comments they've made in the past when questioned about being "too warm". The magnitude and sign of error is sufficiently small to be explained by that alone.

 

Regardless, my original point was correct. They have a history of forecasting too warm of anomalies, compared to their own data set. If that's because they failed to account for data coverage or whatever, that's on them.

[chrisf97212]

Thanks for this data.

 

This year's data highlights anew that the hypothesis that the atmosphere warms before surfaces (land/ocean) is probably not correct. Instead, there's a somewhat lagged response with the surfaces leading the way.

 

Moreover, once the heat reaches the lower troposphere, it is more readily dispersed. Hence, one finds the 1998 Super El Niño as the record year for such data sets and the moderate El Niño 2010 second. Barring a moderate or strong El Niño, it is probably unlikely that the lower troposphere will set new records through perhaps the next decade, even if the land/ocean surface temperatures set new records. As a result, the lower troposphere is probably not a very good proxy for what's happening on the surface.

 

If GISS, Hadcrut4, and NCDC all set new records, which is plausible, that outcome will be an unambiguous argument for a record warm year since the beginning of each of those datasets. Even if 2 of those datasets achieve records, it will be a noteworthy outcome.

 

The hypothesis made intuitive sense, since that's where the CO2 is.  Observational data doesn't support it.  I wonder if they'll revise their modeling to reflect this.

[nflwxman]

The hypothesis made intuitive sense, since that's where the CO2 is.  Observational data doesn't support it.  I wonder if they'll revise their modeling to reflect this.

I believe there was some evidence that the reason why UAH and RSS are warming slower than the surface datasets is primarily due to tropical forcing and convective overturning near the ITCZ.  That particular forcing (ENSO mostly) has trended pretty negatively from 1979-Present.  

 

If thats true, the Sat datasets should warm more vigorously than the surface datasets once the PDO cycle flips back positively.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I believe there was some evidence that the reason why UAH and RSS are warming slower than the surface datasets is primarily due to tropical forcing and convective overturning near the ITCZ. That particular forcing (ENSO mostly) has trended pretty negatively from 1979-Present.

Uh, that actually warms the lower troposphere via latent heat release and direct transport. The lack of convection & associated surface winds is what led to record warm SSTs and surface temps this year, and the subsequent absence of lower tropospheric warming. The oceans cool primarily via evaporation, so the lack of surface winds are going to slow that cooling process down. This reduces the rate and magnitude of conversion to latent heat, and the transport of this heat into the lower troposphere.

If thats true, the Sat datasets should warm more vigorously than the surface datasets once the PDO cycle flips back positively.

The PDO is already raging positive. In fact, the November PDO was one of the highest on record for that month.

[nflwxman]

Uh, that actually warms the lower troposphere via latent heat release and direct transport. The lack of convection & associated surface winds is what led to record warm SSTs and surface temps this year, and the subsequent absence of lower tropospheric warming. The oceans cool primarily via evaporation, so the lack of surface winds are going to slow that cooling process down. This reduces the rate and magnitude of conversion to latent heat, and the transport of this heat into the lower troposphere.

The PDO is already raging positive. In fact, the November PDO was one of the highest on record for that month.

 

Please reread the statement above.  Notice how I said "Cycle."  This is in regards to the literature defined 15-30 year cycle. This recent spike in PDO would not change a multi-decadal trend value very quickly. Notice how the PDO has trended negative since the beginning of the remote sensing era (1979) even despite the recent spike. IF this recent spike is indicative of a longer term change to +PDO conditions, the remote sensing agencies would probably begin seeing the multi-decadal trend increase faster than the surface datasets.

 

[Snow_Miser]

WeatherBell CFSv2 will finish at +0.18. That means we can expect a GISS temperature anomaly to be between +0.73 and +0.78. It is extremely likely that this December will be either the warmest or second warmest on record on GISS, extremely likely that 2014 will finish as the warmest year on record on GISS/NCDC and likely warmest on HadCruT4.

[chubbs]

RSS first to report - 0.284 Dec and 0.26 for the year vs 0.22 last year

 

[wolfpackmet]

JMA puts 2014 at warmest on record over 1998.  0.63 C above the 20th century baseline (image uses 1981-2010).   http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

[chubbs]

UAH 0.32 for December - 0.28 for 2014 vs 0.24 for 2013

 

 

[bluewave]

We probably need to be talking about an Arctic temperature hiatus now as temperatures

have been relatively steady after the steep rise between 1995-2005.

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

In the hindsight, 8 years of stabilized temperatures is not exactly a textbook example of hiatus. The recent post-2012 downturn can be attributed to the +PDO/+AO combination are well within the realm of natural variability.

[bluewave]

In the hindsight, 8 years of stabilized temperatures is not exactly a textbook example of hiatus. The recent post-2012 downturn can be attributed to the +PDO/+AO combination are well within the realm of natural variability.

 

There is no solid definition for hiatus anyway. I was just bringing up that the rapid increase in temperatures from 1995-2005 has leveled off.

[The_Global_Warmer]

In the hindsight, 8 years of stabilized temperatures is not exactly a textbook example of hiatus. The recent post-2012 downturn can be attributed to the +PDO/+AO combination are well within the realm of natural variability.

 

 

There hasn't been a downturn.