2014 Global Temperatures

[donsutherland1]

Unlikely, CFSv2 is already approaching a 0.65C GISS-equivalent anomaly with the remainder of the month being warm globally, save for perhaps the last few days. 

 

Besides that, we would have reached the 2010 record or exceeded it without requiring a moderate el nino.

I agree. Odds lean in favor of a new record on GISS.

[tacoman25]

 

The updates this month and the mild December have taken the suspense out of a GISS record for 2014. The Aug - Dec period is going to be very warm in 2014

2010    65   74   87   81   70   59   56   59   55   65   74   44     2011    45   44   57   60   47   53   69   68   52   59   49   47     2012    38   42   51   61   71   58   50   56   67   72   68   45     2013    61   52   59   47   55   60   52   60   72   60   75   60     2014    68   43   70   71   77   60   49   74   81   76   65 ****   

 

Always subject to future change, of course, but right now we're looking at a .16C drop from Sep to Nov. No other recent year saw a drop in the fall like that. Those of us that said temps were unlikely to remain as elevated as they were in late summer were indeed correct.

[chubbs]

Always subject to future change, of course, but right now we're looking at a .16C drop from Sep to Nov. No other recent year saw a drop in the fall like that. Those of us that said temps were unlikely to remain as elevated as they were in late summer were indeed correct.

Thats a bit of cherry picking. The variability in  NHem continent temperatures we've had in the past 6 weeks is just typical cool season noise.  Taking the early August to late December period as a whole temperatures have remained warm, record breaking on average, without much trend. October was record breaking and December will be warmer than any other recent year.

 

[skierinvermont]

Thats a bit of cherry picking. The variability in  NHem continent temperatures we've had in the past 6 weeks is just typical cool season noise.  Taking the early August to late December period as a whole temperatures have remained warm, record breaking on average, without much trend. October was record breaking and December will be warmer than any other recent year.

 

cdas_v2_hemisphere_2014.png

 

Mostly I agree with this. Nov-Dec averages a smaller anomaly than Sep-Oct anyways I think. Once December is factored in, the seasonal drop from Sep-Oct to Nov-Dec will be about average.

[tacoman25]

1. It's not cherry picking. My statements were always that I believed we see cooling this fall from the levels seen in late summer. We did.

 

2. December is almost half over. Careful about making assumptions this early...remember what happened in November.

[chubbs]

1. It's not cherry picking. My statements were always that I believed we see cooling this fall from the levels seen in late summer. We did.

 

2. December is almost half over. Careful about making assumptions this early...remember what happened in November.

 

1; Will have to disagree on  fall.vs late summer

 

2. Yes lets wait till Dec is over

[The_Global_Warmer]

If we had no cooling it would have been epic and unprecedented.

[AvantHiatus]

If we had no cooling it would have been epic and unprecedented.

Probably the likely outcome for Decemeber-February or some other upcoming three-month period. At the rate things are stair stepping, we should have another record in 2015.

[tacoman25]

If we had no cooling it would have been epic and unprecedented.

 

Yup. Yet it was still predicted by some.

[tacoman25]

1; Will have to disagree on  fall.vs late summer

 

2. Yes lets wait till Dec is over

 

It's not debatable. Oct/Nov was cooler than Aug/Sep.

[chubbs]

This is the only late summer prediction of yours I could find -

 

nflwxman, on 28 Aug 2014 - 11:22 AM, said:

 

2012 from A-D finished 0.62 on GISS

 

2013 from A-D finished 0.67 on GISS

 

Do you expect 2014 to finish the homestretch lower than 2013?  That's what it would take to avoid a record (at least on GISS, even less so on the others)

I do. Because tropical/ENSO SSTA were warmer in 2013 leading up to that period.

[chubbs]

Here are are my predictions from late Summer.  The 12-month running average is still in an upward trend and ENSO  hasn't changed much so will roll forward until the end of April. Expect 2015 to start out warmer than 2014.  Doesn't mean there can't be a cool winter month though.

 With fits and starts global temperatures have been increasing since La Nina ended in spring of 2012. Expect global avg temps to  continue to increase in a back and forth manner until La Nina returns.

Thanks for the clarification. Global temps did dip a little in June and July and have bounced right back. Once a trend in the 12-month moving average is established in an ENSO cycle it usually continues till conditions change. So I only expect minor setbacks if any through the end of the year. 

[tacoman25]

I already quoted what I said in Sep regarding Oct/Nov compared to Aug/Sep. Not going to go over it again. 

[chubbs]

I already quoted what I said in Sep regarding Oct/Nov compared to Aug/Sep. Not going to go over it again. 

 Just pulling your leg a little bit. You keep broadening the scope of your prediction.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has shot up quite a bit this week.

[nflwxman]

It seems like December will likely end up pretty warm based on the GFS progs.  Perhaps around 0.15-0.18 on the CFS (70-73 on GISS).

[tacoman25]

It seems like December will likely end up pretty warm based on the GFS progs.  Perhaps around 0.15-0.18 on the CFS (70-73 on GISS).

 

Probably depends some on when the likely -EPO/-AO pattern sets in, and how severe the resulting NH cold is. Looks like somewhere between Dec 25-30.

[chubbs]

Probably depends some on when the likely -EPO/-AO pattern sets in, and how severe the resulting NH cold is. Looks like somewhere between Dec 25-30.

Per GEFS NH  starts cooling off some the last week of Dec not enough though to keep the 2nd half of Dec from being warmer than the first.

[nflwxman]

Probably depends some on when the likely -EPO/-AO pattern sets in, and how severe the resulting NH cold is. Looks like somewhere between Dec 25-30.

Agreed.  The -AO can't come soon enough though. 

[chubbs]

NOAA came in at 0.65 for Nov. A mild December, possibly record-breaking, is going to leave 2014 comfortably above the previous record.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow CFS is torching hardcore.

The monthly is up to 0.15C with 10 days left.

The daily is somewhere around 0.50C.

December is looking like another 0.70C+ month.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Amsu channel 6 temps running at record levels too

[Msalgado]

NOAA came in at 0.65 for Nov. A mild December, possibly record-breaking, is going to leave 2014 comfortably above the previous record.

 

noaadec.png

 

Great Chart.  What does the month need to do on each of the datasets to set the record, do you know?

[chubbs]

Great Chart.  What does the month need to do on each of the datasets to set the record, do you know?

 Waiting for Nov. Hadley before updateing table. GISS + NOAA will break record.

[chubbs]

Transition to cooler NH begins around Xmas and continues the last week of the year.

[nflwxman]

Transition to cooler NH begins around Xmas and continues the last week of the year.

Yes, a major global cooloff seems likely within the next week with a temporary shift to a -AO.  However, this probably won't dent what has been a very warm December overall.

 

Northern Hemispheric temperatures are running the warmest they have all year.

 

[chubbs]

Hadley was 0.487 for November.  With December warmer than November on cfs2 looks like all three surface temperature series will break records. Hadley is the closest call and could fall short if prior month adjustments are negative enough. The satellites had a relatively warm November and are showing more warming relative to 2013. Biggest news this year is the big jump in SST with HADSST still running +0.10 vs last year.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Southern Hemisphere SSTA have exploded. 

[AvantHiatus]

Southern Hemisphere SSTA have exploded. 

Familiar trend that now reoccurs around the solstice in both hemispheres. It seems the AGW forcing is amplified during the summer.

[donsutherland1]

Hadley was 0.487 for November.  With December warmer than November on cfs2 looks like all three surface temperature series will break records. Hadley is the closest call and could fall short if prior month adjustments are negative enough. The satellites had a relatively warm November and are showing more warming relative to 2013. Biggest news this year is the big jump in SST with HADSST still running +0.10 vs last year.

 

temptablenov.jpg

Thanks for this data.

 

This year's data highlights anew that the hypothesis that the atmosphere warms before surfaces (land/ocean) is probably not correct. Instead, there's a somewhat lagged response with the surfaces leading the way.

 

Moreover, once the heat reaches the lower troposphere, it is more readily dispersed. Hence, one finds the 1998 Super El Niño as the record year for such data sets and the moderate El Niño 2010 second. Barring a moderate or strong El Niño, it is probably unlikely that the lower troposphere will set new records through perhaps the next decade, even if the land/ocean surface temperatures set new records. As a result, the lower troposphere is probably not a very good proxy for what's happening on the surface.

 

If GISS, Hadcrut4, and NCDC all set new records, which is plausible, that outcome will be an unambiguous argument for a record warm year since the beginning of each of those datasets. Even if 2 of those datasets achieve records, it will be a noteworthy outcome.