2014 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

And somehow this conclusion can be made from 2 weeks of relatively cold global temperatures?

I know you're following the modeling. Come on, we all do.

The GFS is forecasting another downturn beginning this weekend, which would take us into mid-December. That and the forecasted MJO suggests the cooler regime should continue for awhile, if I'm interpreting things correctly

[chubbs]

This is the definition of a straw man. No one claimed anything of the sort.

 

There were two camps going into this fall/early winter. Those that thought we'd likely stay at/above the temperature levels seen in late summer, and those that thought it was more likely we'd see cooling from those levels. It's looking like the latter camp will probably be more correct. Big deal.

 

I do think what's happened should be instructive for those that thought weak +ENSO would suddenly "kick in" and be a major factor towards the end of 2014. There was simply no historical evidence for that.

 

A little bit of revisionist history here. In late August you and SOC started talking about cooling based on unusually warm SST.  As I recall you mentioned GISS temperatures of 60 as a target. Since then we've had 10 weeks of warm temperatures and two weeks of cool temperatures. On average Fall has been just as warm as August. Nobody said this weak ENSO cycle was going to have a big warming effect. What we said was that it was unlikely we would see much cooling at this point in the ENSO cycle. I can't speak for others but my outlook was for 12-month running averages to continue to work upwards in an uneven manner until this ENSO cycle peaks. That prediction is still on track.

[chubbs]

I know you're following the modeling. Come on, we all do.

The GFS is forecasting another downturn beginning this weekend, which would take us into mid-December. That and the forecasted MJO suggests the cooler regime should continue for awhile, if I'm interpreting things correctly

 Looks mild to me with a return to positive AO next week and Pacific replacing Arctic air in NA.

[ORH_wxman]

This whole last page of debate is an example of why I thought it fruitless to try and predict monthly temps to hundredths of a degree. I get that predicting the temps is part of the fun in this thread which is fine but I also get the feeling that more skill is implied than actually exists in predicting these temps.

This cool down in latter half of November only reinforces that thought since if anything, I was on the much warmer November bandwagon. But I can't say I'm surprised that it was a tenth colder than I thought it would be. The variance is high month to month so arguing 0.64 vs 0.72 seems like arguing over statistical noise unless I'm missing something. If someone was predicting 0.45 vs 0.80 it would be a different story.

[nflwxman]

Fwiw, Sorry about my spelling errors on my last post. I often type from my phone and was in a hurry. I want to tell you I am a believer in AGW. I am not a believer in catastrophic AGW like many alarmists on here. I think you have a lot to offer this forum and are a smart person. That said please don't accuse me or passive aggressively suggest I am calling for global warming cancel. As tacoman said that's a big strawman and we have enough of those on here without someone who knows better adding to it. Thank you.

My apologies, I did not mean to take your comments out of context.  I guess, I was just shocked at the hand waving going on over 2 weeks of relatively cool temperatures (primarily not for you).  But as you know, 2 weeks or even 2 months is very very small sample size to draw conclusions.  Who is right/who is wrong is based on a few hundredths of a degree Celsius. 

 

Agreed with ORH's comments above.  It is just for fun, however, as indicated before. 

[chubbs]

This whole last page of debate is an example of why I thought it fruitless to try and predict monthly temps to hundredths of a degree. I get that predicting the temps is part of the fun in this thread which is fine but I also get the feeling that more skill is implied than actually exists in predicting these temps.

This cool down in latter half of November only reinforces that thought since if anything, I was on the much warmer November bandwagon. But I can't say I'm surprised that it was a tenth colder than I thought it would be. The variance is high month to month so arguing 0.64 vs 0.72 seems like arguing over statistical noise unless I'm missing something. If someone was predicting 0.45 vs 0.80 it would be a different story.

 Agree. This cool down was also a surprise to me as was the extent of the warmth that preceded it. A lot of the banter in August and September was in imprecise qualitative terms that tends to magnify the differences. I bet if we had all given # on 9/1 the outlooks wouldn't have been that different and no one would have gotten the details right.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looks mild to me with a return to positive AO next week and Pacific replacing Arctic air in NA.

Nope, at least not into mid-December:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

[StudentOfClimatology]

A little bit of revisionist history here. In late August you and SOC started talking about cooling based on unusually warm SST. As I recall you mentioned GISS temperatures of 60 as a target. Since then we've had 10 weeks of warm temperatures and two weeks of cool temperatures. On average Fall has been just as warm as August. Nobody said this weak ENSO cycle was going to have a big warming effect. What we said was that it was unlikely we would see much cooling at this point in the ENSO cycle. I can't speak for others but my outlook was for 12-month running averages to continue to work upwards in an uneven manner until this ENSO cycle peaks. That prediction is still on track.

The oceans make up almost 75% of the global surface interface and hold 99.999% of the planetary energy budget. The drop in mid/high latitude SSTs is a major contributor to the colder globe.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Notice how we lost the lower frequency, east pacific forcing that had dominated since March/April, right before the global temperature began cooling. There's your culprit:

[Msalgado]

This whole last page of debate is an example of why I thought it fruitless to try and predict monthly temps to hundredths of a degree. I get that predicting the temps is part of the fun in this thread which is fine but I also get the feeling that more skill is implied than actually exists in predicting these temps.

This cool down in latter half of November only reinforces that thought since if anything, I was on the much warmer November bandwagon. But I can't say I'm surprised that it was a tenth colder than I thought it would be. The variance is high month to month so arguing 0.64 vs 0.72 seems like arguing over statistical noise unless I'm missing something. If someone was predicting 0.45 vs 0.80 it would be a different story.

 

Agree 100%

[chubbs]

The oceans make up almost 75% of the global surface interface and hold 99.999% of the planetary energy budget. The drop in mid/high latitude SSTs is a major contributor to the colder globe

 

 Global SST are still running much higher than last year and well above the previous annual HADSST record of 0.42

 

[tacoman25]

A little bit of revisionist history here. In late August you and SOC started talking about cooling based on unusually warm SST.  As I recall you mentioned GISS temperatures of 60 as a target. Since then we've had 10 weeks of warm temperatures and two weeks of cool temperatures. On average Fall has been just as warm as August. Nobody said this weak ENSO cycle was going to have a big warming effect. What we said was that it was unlikely we would see much cooling at this point in the ENSO cycle. I can't speak for others but my outlook was for 12-month running averages to continue to work upwards in an uneven manner until this ENSO cycle peaks. That prediction is still on track.

 

No, it really isn't. SOC was talking about cooling in late August. The only comparison statement I made was, repeatedly, that I thought we'd see cooling temperatures as we went through the fall, and specifically that Oct/Nov would likely be cooler than Aug/Sep.

 

As far as ENSO, several posters actually did say they thought we'd see +ENSO warming start to kick in more late in the year, since ENSO began warming in late summer/early fall.

[tacoman25]

This whole last page of debate is an example of why I thought it fruitless to try and predict monthly temps to hundredths of a degree. I get that predicting the temps is part of the fun in this thread which is fine but I also get the feeling that more skill is implied than actually exists in predicting these temps.

This cool down in latter half of November only reinforces that thought since if anything, I was on the much warmer November bandwagon. But I can't say I'm surprised that it was a tenth colder than I thought it would be. The variance is high month to month so arguing 0.64 vs 0.72 seems like arguing over statistical noise unless I'm missing something. If someone was predicting 0.45 vs 0.80 it would be a different story.

 

In this case, though, the .10/difference could easily determine whether 2014 is a record year or not for some temperature sources. So I think that's why there was so much speculation.

[tacoman25]

 Agree. This cool down was also a surprise to me as was the extent of the warmth that preceded it. A lot of the banter in August and September was in imprecise qualitative terms that tends to magnify the differences. I bet if we had all given # on 9/1 the outlooks wouldn't have been that different and no one would have gotten the details right.

 

Sure, very possible. It's really not that big of a deal either way.

 

However, some people don't seem to want to acknowledge the fact that a drop from the level of warmth we saw late summer/early fall was to be expected. They insisted that the weak emerging Nino would make a difference (despite no evidence for this), and also thought that since global SSTA were so warm, that would make it harder for temps to drop off. There was no historical precedent for any year maintaining the anomalous warmth we were seeing all the way through the end of the year, or even just through November, unless it was a strong +ENSO event that developed early.

 

We're all wrong sometimes. There's nothing wrong with learning from those mistakes...instead, a certain poster decided to deride those who were talking about the recent cooling and what it meant. It's just annoying, and detracts from reasonable conversation about what's going on.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Global SST are still running much higher than last year and well above the previous annual HADSST record of 0.42

SSTOct.png

Definitely, but they've dropped by more than 0.2C since. That's the point I'm trying to make. That drop is roughly equal to the drop in global surface temperatures since September/October.

[chubbs]

Definitely, but they've dropped by more than 0.2C since. That's the point I'm trying to make. That drop is roughly equal to the drop in global surface temperatures since September/October.

Any support for that claim. Don't see much evidence over at tropical tidbits.

[chubbs]

No, it really isn't. SOC was talking about cooling in late August. The only comparison statement I made was, repeatedly, that I thought we'd see cooling temperatures as we went through the fall, and specifically that Oct/Nov would likely be cooler than Aug/Sep.

 

As far as ENSO, several posters actually did say they thought we'd see +ENSO warming start to kick in more late in the year, since ENSO began warming in late summer/early fall.

 Thats why I said we should have used #. You predicted that Oct+Nov would be cooler than 72.5 on GISS (73.5 prior to recent adjustments) . Thats not exactly going out on a limb. Looks like its going to come in around 70 if Wxbell is accurate so the cooling has been modest still one of the warmest Oct+Nov ever.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Any support for that claim. Don't see much evidence over at tropical tidbits.

I meant since August, somehow forgot to add that word in there. My bad.

Based on NESDIS and OISST3.

[tacoman25]

 Thats why I said we should have used #. You predicted that Oct+Nov would be cooler than 72.5 on GISS (73.5 prior to recent adjustments) . Thats not exactly going out on a limb. Looks like its going to come in around 70 if Wxbell is accurate so the cooling has been modest still one of the warmest Oct+Nov ever.

 

I agree. But it was in response to those who thought any cooling was unlikely, and that further warming was more likely.

[Msalgado]

I agree. But it was in response to those who thought any cooling was unlikely, and that further warming was more likely.

 

Who were those?

[FPizz]

Who were those?

Go back and read over the thread

[nflwxman]

Who were those?

It's strange because most of us realize that from month to month, swings can occur related to many internal climate factors.  Noone claimed that every single month would be warmer than the previous one because of ENSO or what have you.  Like chubbs said, it's the rolling average that really matters.  We can expect it to keep rising in tandem with internal tropical forcing.

 

Not every month will be warmer than the last, but what's telling is that November..the "cool" month of the season is still likely to come in close to 65 on GISS.

[StudentOfClimatology]

It's strange because most of us realize that from month to month, swings can occur related to many internal climate factors. Noone claimed that every single month would be warmer than the previous one because of ENSO or what have you. Like chubbs said, it's the rolling average that really matters. We can expect it to keep rising in tandem with internal tropical forcing.

Not every month will be warmer than the last, but what's telling is that November..the "cool" month of the season is still likely to come in close to 65 on GISS.

If you're referring to the satellite datasets, I agree. The problem was/is that the earlier warmth on the surface datasets had essentially nothing to do with ENSO, rather it was a result of an anomalous circulation regimen that did not significantly affect the satellite data. So, the question is whether or not you think a weak El Nino can make up for that?

[tacoman25]

It's strange because most of us realize that from month to month, swings can occur related to many internal climate factors.  Noone claimed that every single month would be warmer than the previous one because of ENSO or what have you.  Like chubbs said, it's the rolling average that really matters.  We can expect it to keep rising in tandem with internal tropical forcing.

 

Not every month will be warmer than the last, but what's telling is that November..the "cool" month of the season is still likely to come in close to 65 on GISS.

 

 

Right, but in this thread you, myself, and several others were all speculating months ago about how the upcoming months' anomalies would come in, and how that would influence the chances of a record year on GISS, etc. There were reasons given on both sides why some of us expected some cooling and therefore less chance of a global temp record, and others did not.

 

Why did we have those discussions at all, if month to month swings are irrelevant? Honest question - after all, you were very much a part of those discussions, but now it sounds like you're just saying "who cares" about month to month.

[tacoman25]

For Msalgado.

 

August came in at .70 on GISS and September will likely be very similar. 

 

The average for October on GISS the past 8 years is .63. 

 

The average for November the past 8 years is .66. 

 

The average for December the past 8 years is .54.

 

Oct-Dec avg: .61

 

Even if the next three months come in warmer than that average, say .65, that would still be cooler  than what we've seen in Aug/Sep. Remember, we've had people throw out guesstimates of mid .70s for the rest of 2014, based on how warm we've been lately.

 

 

Based on averages, it is unlikely we match 2005's .74 for Oct/Nov.

 

 

I feel like that is the right thing to do (projecting mid .70s for the rest of 2014).  You can't lump 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 into your projections.  .  If you average Jan-August in the last 8 years (excluding 2014) you get an average of 0.58.  This year has averaged 0.66 so far.  So clearly, that is not the right method of projection. The end of 2014 is a different year than many of the last 8 since we are now ENSO positive and well...global warming.

 

 

Again, what I have said is that I think there is a good chance Oct/Nov are cooler than Aug/Sep. NFLwxman thinks there is a good chance we are even warmer than Aug/Sep.

[Msalgado]

Fair enough, Taco.

[nflwxman]

taco,

Not to sweat the details, but your post of mine refers to SOND as a whole. Not simply October and november. I'm not sure why you'd think otherwise. Mid 70s in fact may end up being high for SOND, but you took my post out of context here. sorry.

[tacoman25]

taco,

Not to sweat the details, but your post of mine refers to SOND as a whole. Not simply October and november. I'm not sure why you'd think otherwise. Mid 70s in fact may end up being high for SOND, but you took my post out of context here. sorry.

 

It wasn't out of context. Your post that I quoted was a direct response to my first quote in that post. Go back and look if you'd like. Without putting up 10 quotes, I tried to provide the context of the conversation.

 

But yeah, whether it's SOND or just OND, it's clear now mid .70s for the rest of 2014 was a stretch. There just wasn't the support for that kind of prediction - no offense.

[skierinvermont]

Taco also thought October would be colder. I think ORH is more on point in that month to month variations are tough to predict.

[AvantHiatus]

Long-term regime is very 2011'ish, with the return of warm continents. May be enough to seal warmest on almost all datasets.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120812/gfs_T2ma_global.html