2014 Global Temperatures

[nzucker]

The -AO wasn't responsible for the recent downturn, though. The AO itself isn't going to do much globally without a productive tropical forcing.

2014 is unique in that the Hadley Cells were extremely broad from March to mid October, as depicted by .2101 sigma streamfunction anomalies. This lead to weak global wind speeds and scorching SSTs above 30N, which allowed the surface datasets to run very warm. This year was essentially the anti-2008, which was almost opposite in every respect.

Yeah but the -AO is going to contribute to the Siberian/Asian cold responsible for next week's bigger drop.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah but the -AO is going to contribute to the Siberian/Asian cold responsible for next week's bigger drop.

Exactly. That is present with all the cold/snow NH cold season anomalies

[The_Global_Warmer]

This recent less warm spell with a +AO would have been status quo with the SH preventing record breaking warmth.

The tropics kept the NH warm where it could have been record torching.

CFS jumped back up to 0.30C+ yesterday.

It wont take much right now to torch hard with the tropics raging

[tacoman25]

November looks primed for around a 60-65 anomaly on the GISS dataset.  This would certainly be an outlier versus the last 8 years or so on the dataset.  This, however, does not mean a global temperature record would not be set.  It's nearly a lock on HadCrut4 and NCDC.  With the nino firing off in the pacific, it's only a matter of time until extra heat is distributed worldwide (perhaps the 2nd half of December).

 

GISS needs to average only a 0.6 C anomaly to break the global temperature record (revisions pending).  It still appears to be a likely proposition despite the cooler than expected November.  Perhaps December ends up being extremely cold, but I would not could on it.

 

Not unexpected to some of us. As was pointed out a couple months ago, it's difficult to sustain the type of anomalies the late summer/early fall produced, especially without a significant Nino. Regardless of recent trends for November having the warmest anomalies. Every year is different.

[tacoman25]

You are correct.  I was looking above an older post prior to recent revisions.  I agree with Skier that I don't expect a record warm December due to the AO, but the tropics will begin to have more of a pull on global temperatures.

 

Typically, late-blooming Nino events tend to have a much larger effect Jan-Mar, with negligible impact on Dec. See: 1976-77, 1986-87, 1991-92, 2002-03, and 2009-10. And most of those events were significantly stronger +ENSO than 2014.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Not unexpected to some of us. As was pointed out a couple months ago, it's difficult to sustain the type of anomalies the late summer/early fall produced, especially without a significant Nino. Regardless of recent trends for November having the warmest anomalies. Every year is different.

Exactly. Pretty much on par with expectations when accounting for the mechanisms that led to the earlier warmth. Those calling for a +0.75C OND appeared to be assuming that we'd suddenly shifted to a new baseline or something. Based on CERES alone, that does not appear to be the case.

As you mentioned, November has typically been a scorcher over the last decade, so we're likely going to break from that tendency this year, unlike the other front-running years.

[nflwxman]

Guys, you've had a week of cool anomalies. Chill out with the sweeping conclusions. It's unattractive. And frankly silly given the warmth we'd had for the past 10 months.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Guys, you've had a week of cool anomalies. Chill out with the sweeping conclusions. It's unattractive. And frankly silly given the warmth we'd had for the past 10 months.

What sweeping claims have been made? I'm relaying observational data. As of right now, the modeling suggests that depressed temperatures will continue into December, possibly as a result of the MJO wave. The circumstances that led to the earlier warmth are not present to the extent they were a few months back.

There is disagreement in regards to the speed and dynamics of the wave. If it persists, December will probably come in cold as well, presuming it doesn't progress too far beyond the dateline.

[tacoman25]

Guys, you've had a week of cool anomalies. Chill out with the sweeping conclusions. It's unattractive. And frankly silly given the warmth we'd had for the past 10 months.

 

What are you talking about? You said yourself that November looks like to be cooler than previous months. That's what my first point was about.

 

My second point was that late-blooming Ninos have demonstrated very little effect on December temps.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Saying it's been slightly less than record warmth because the NINO isn't strong enough is absurd.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Exactly. Pretty much on par with expectations when accounting for the mechanisms that led to the earlier warmth. Those calling for a +0.75C OND appeared to be assuming that we'd suddenly shifted to a new baseline or something. Based on CERES alone, that does not appear to be the case.

As you mentioned, November has typically been a scorcher over the last decade, so we're likely going to break from that tendency this year, unlike the other front-running years.

 

 

 

You said August would be the warmest month.  It wasn't.

 

You also said we would see a steady cooling trend after August thru December, didn't happen.

 

Then September could possibly reach 0.70C+ if it max's out.  It didn't max out and still eclipsed that mark.

 

Then you said October would certainly be cooler then around October 10th you predicted October being 0.60C+ it tied September at 0.76C+.

 

 

Now we sit at a 0.67C+ CFS to GISS conversion. Anything between 0.62C+ to 0.67C+ is the 9th warmest November out of 135 years on GISS. 

 

 

So things haven't gone all like your expectations according to your own words.

 

 

I don't recall anyone saying a 0.75C OND would happen.  I remember it being SON.

 

Myself, ORH, and NFLwxman all said back in late September or October that we could see abnormally cold snow/land combo to bring snow albedo feedback cooling that can put a serious dent into the warmth from the El Nino.

 

The ocean is certainly warm.  I bet November ssts are in the top 3 on record. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

What sweeping claims have been made? I'm relaying observational data. As of right now, the modeling suggests that depressed temperatures will continue into December, possibly as a result of the MJO wave. The circumstances that led to the earlier warmth are not present to the extent they were a few months back.

There is disagreement in regards to the speed and dynamics of the wave. If it persists, December will probably come in cold as well, presuming it doesn't progress too far beyond the dateline.

 

 

Cold as in top 10 warmest months on a 135 year record?

 

Sounds like those months would be in the record warmest percentile not anywhere near cold.

[tacoman25]

Saying it's been slightly less than record warmth because the NINO isn't strong enough is absurd.

 

Not sure what your point is. No one is disputing that, relatively speaking, we're still near record warmth.

 

However, whether or not we reach a record for the year on GISS and possibly other sources depends on the Nov/Dec anomalies. And Nov looks like it will be coming in cooler than previous months, which surprised nflwxman. He also thinks Dec will be affected more by the slowly strengthening +ENSO, so I pointed out to him that based on the history of such events, it's not likely the effect will be much.

 

So...what exactly about the discussion is absurd?

[StudentOfClimatology]

You said August would be the warmest month. It wasn't.

You also said we would see a steady cooling trend after August thru December, didn't happen.

Then September could possibly reach 0.70C+ if it max's out. It didn't max out and still eclipsed that mark.

Then you said October would certainly be cooler then around October 10th you predicted October being 0.60C+ it tied September at 0.76C+.

Now we sit at a 0.67C+ CFS to GISS conversion. Anything between 0.62C+ to 0.67C+ is the 9th warmest November out of 135 years on GISS.

So things haven't gone all like your expectations according to your own words.

I don't recall anyone saying a 0.75C OND would happen. I remember it being SON.

Myself, ORH, and NFLwxman all said back in late September or October that we could see abnormally cold snow/land combo to bring snow albedo feedback cooling that can put a serious dent into the warmth from the El Nino.

The ocean is certainly warm. I bet November ssts are in the top 3 on record.

So, I was 6 weeks off with the temperature response..who cares? Your "predictions" bust just as often as mine do. I could go back into the Arctic ice thread and pull up several gems you provided last August. This game you play detracts from the scientific discussion within the thread. Predictions don't always verify perfectly..it's a learning experience, all around. So please, knock it off.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Cold as in top 10 warmest months on a 135 year record?

Sounds like those months would be in the record warmest percentile not anywhere near cold.

Come on, you know what I meant.

[StudentOfClimatology]

New GFS is an icebox. Taken verbatim, it would drop temps to about -0.30C on the CFSR baseline, which would be more typical of a La Niña: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

Biggest question is how much to we warm up after early/mid December? Models are in disagreement regarding the propagation of the current MJO event. The ECMWF keeps the wave intact, allowing it to progress into the domain that favors a warmer globe. However, the GFS is less enthusiastic about its sustainability and tries to dissipate it. This could determine whether or not we break the record in 2014...

[LithiaWx]

The downward spiral of November global temps continues on the CFS as we close out November.

December may start out more similar to what temps on Hoth would be like.

[The_Global_Warmer]

With land cold ssta are warming.

Probably running at or above the record levels from 2009

[GaWx]

According to Levi Cowan's (Tropical Tidbits) map, 3.4 has cooled 0.25 C the last few days fwiw.

[chubbs]

GEFS day 8. Models are advertising a  change  to mild NH continents next week with Pacific flow into NA

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

December may start out more similar to what temps on Hoth would be like.

Haha.

I do suspect temps will warm overall through the first few weeks of December as the MJO progresses. Might not be enough to counter the cold start, but it'll be interesting to watch, in my opinion.

[LithiaWx]

The epic plunge continues :

 

 

[GaWx]

Marietta/all,

I've been wondering in prior posts here about what could happen to global temp.'s in a weak El Niño winter IF much of the US and Eurasia were to end up quite cold. I'm wondering if the current situation is a sign of what may come for much of this winter if it is, indeed, quite cold in the areas noted.

[nflwxman]

Marietta/all,

I've been wondering in prior posts here about what could happen to global temp.'s in a weak El Niño winter IF much of the US and Eurasia were to end up quite cold. I'm wondering if the current situation is a sign of what may come for much of this winter if it is, indeed, quite cold in the areas noted.

It could impact them in some sense, but one would have to have a sustained -AO and -AAO in order to see a huge difference.  Seasonal global temperatures are still mostly tied to ENSO, and Solar, just not quite as much as annual basis.  On a monthly temporal scale is generally where you can see more swings based on colder continents (ie. this November, which is not really all that cold in the grand scheme of things).  Nino will begin to show a larger signature on global tempatures, IMO.

 

Another great example of this is Jan 2010, when tropics were scorching yet the globe came in relatively cooler.

[LithiaWx]

Marietta/all,

I've been wondering in prior posts here about what could happen to global temp.'s in a weak El Niño winter IF much of the US and Eurasia were to end up quite cold. I'm wondering if the current situation is a sign of what may come for much of this winter if it is, indeed, quite cold in the areas noted.

 

Weak el nino looks like a lock now.  I guess we shall see.

[GaWx]

It could impact them in some sense, but one would have to have a sustained -AO and -AAO in order to see a huge difference.  Seasonal global temperatures are still mostly tied to ENSO, and Solar, just not quite as much as annual basis.  On a monthly temporal scale is generally where you can see more swings based on colder continents (ie. this November, which is not really all that cold in the grand scheme of things).  Nino will begin to show a larger signature on global tempatures, IMO.

 

Another great example of this is Jan 2010.

Nflwxman,

Thanks for your reply. Regarding the Niño having a larger influence later, don't forget that the 2009-10 Niño was much stronger than this one is projected to be. So, isn't that a bit of an apples to oranges comparison? That's why I'm emphasizing the weak aspect of this niño. The weak ones are the coldest for much of the US on average (especially when there are a +PDO and -NAO/-AO) and the increased warming from the tropics isn't as strong. The last cold US weak El Niño was way back in 1977-8!

[nflwxman]

Nflwxman,

Thanks for your reply. Regarding the Niño having a larger influence later, don't forget that the 2009-10 Niño was much stronger than this one is projected to be. So, isn't that a bit of an apples to oranges comparison? That's why I'm emphasizing the weak aspect of this niño. The weak ones are the coldest for much of the US on average (especially when there are a +PDO and -NAO/-AO) and the increased warming from the tropics isn't as strong. The last cold US weak El Niño was way back in 1977-8!

Aside from the US, do you know if weak El Nino events have a similar impact in Russia and Siberia?  Are weak el ninos generally colder in all northern hemispheric land bodies than say ENSO neutral?

[GaWx]

Aside from the US, do you know if weak El Nino events have a similar impact in Russia and Siberia?  Are weak el ninos generally colder in all continents than say ENSO neutral?

That's a great question. To be fair, I don't know about Russia. I'd have to see if I could research it. Do you have any idea where one can get temperature anomaly maps from past winters (say from 1970's and earlier) for outside the US?

[RCNYILWX]

DonS will probably start at projection thread at some point, but if we are doing that here to start...

Predictions for 2014

GISS: .65 Above 1950-1980 baseline

UAH: .3 Above 1980-2010 baseline

I expect neutral conditions until late summer in which then we MIGHT be able to have a weak nino by october. This is all speculative of course.

Now that we're in the new year of 2014, someone mentioned a new temp thread should be started. So, what are your thoughts?

My prediction is if we develop a moderate niño or higher, we will set a new global temp record on UAH or GISS.

Any updates one how 2014 has started out?

[StudentOfClimatology]

as video even e6v deed bvvw7x vs bvwbbyb we bwbv vs 7wk2bv es bbbb h2 we switch es 7b ed ee8 bw ed w

Ceeeeeeee

Sent from my SM-G900V