The_Global_Warmer Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 A note about UAH. October tied 2012 as the warmest on it's record. Also the tropics didn't drive the warmth at all. So the furnace hasn't even been turned up yet. YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.3862013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.1952013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.2432013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.1652013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.1122013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.2202013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.0742013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.0092013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.1902013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.0312013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.0202013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.0572014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.0292014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.1032014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.0012014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.0922014 5 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.1752014 6 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.5102014 7 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.4512014 8 +0.199 +0.244 +0.153 +0.0612014 9 +0.294 +0.187 +0.401 +0.1812014 10 +0.367 +0.335 +0.399 +0.191 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 RSS also increased somewhat in October but unlike UAH was higher earlier this year 2014 1 0.2605 2014 2 0.1606 2014 3 0.2134 2014 4 0.2508 2014 5 0.2863 2014 6 0.3458 2014 7 0.3510 2014 8 0.1925 2014 9 0.2056 2014 10 0.2724 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 HADSST had a seasonal decrease to 0.529 in October. Remains at record monthly levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like the upcoming -AO event in tandem with subtle tropical forcing emerging in the W-PAC may lead to a drop in NH temperatures. Climate re-analyzer shows a decent fall-off, with the largest contributions occurring over North America and Eurasia. The Arctic roasts under the ridge, though, so we'll see what effect that has on things up there: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 So far November is running about 0.200C+ on CFS. But with the big chill coming to North America and Antarctica we will see at least a few days possibly reaching -0.10C to -0.15C on CFS. On the flip side the SH oceans will continue to warm. Also AMSU channel six temps are now way above every other year. Given how warm the ssts are. It's very possible for UAH to set it's November record. http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch06.r003.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 So far November is running about 0.200C+ on CFS. But with the big chill coming to North America and Antarctica we will see at least a few days possibly reaching -0.10C to -0.15C on CFS. On the flip side the SH oceans will continue to warm. Also AMSU channel six temps are now way above every other year. Given how warm the ssts are. It's very possible for UAH to set it's November record. http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch06.r003.txt Why should this matter, since apparently the seasonal cooling of NH oceans doesn't matter? Just going off what several posters have said this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Why should this matter, since apparently the seasonal cooling of NH oceans doesn't matter? Just going off what several posters have said this fall. Who said the seasonal cooling doesn't matter? People just said it's impact wouldn't be much if at all with the tropics warming. It's also relative. Seasonal cooling coming from crushing record highs isn't the same as cooling running along climo. The NPAC between 20-65N cooled about 0.4C in October. Yet the global ssta barely dropped at all. Which has been the argument all along. The extreme weather pattern combined with a +AAO is going to use land effects to bring a solid cool regime for a little while. But it has nothing to with the ssts cooling. Cooling has been thrown around here since August and we are a 1/3rd of the way thru November and we have continued to run at record warmth without interruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 SST change over the last week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Because I am not able to count pixels and because even the pixels don't' represent the same area everywhere I don't understand why so many people on this site try to make points with maps. I prefer the graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Did the globe cool off some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Did the globe cool off some? If this verifies, then yes, relatively speaking. Would be the coldest period in 7-8 months: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Did the globe cool off some? When there are crickets on this thread you always know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GLOBAL COOLING COMMENCING, run for the hills! Seriously though, the CFSv2 is around 0.175 for the month, which is still over 70 on GISS. We all knew this was going to happen, the continents are experiencing severe cold shots due to the -AO, -NAO combo. These things are generally transient worldwide as I'm sure we will find out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GLOBAL COOLING COMMENCING, run for the hills! Seriously though, the CFSv2 is around 0.175 for the month, which is still over 70 on GISS. We all knew this was going to happen, the continents are experiencing severe cold shots due to the -AO, -NAO combo. These things are generally transient worldwide as I'm sure we will find out again. -AO usually warms the arctic up.... Cold continents have to be offset somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 -AO usually warms the arctic up.... Cold continents have to be offset somewhere. Well the specific heat over land is much lower than that of ice and water. In a way, that makes the 15+C anomalies over the arctic even more impressive. However, the continents can drastically impact global anomalies on a sub-monthly basis more than the tiny portion of the earth that is the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 GLOBAL COOLING COMMENCING, run for the hills! Seriously though, the CFSv2 is around 0.175 for the month, which is still over 70 on GISS. We all knew this was going to happen, the continents are experiencing severe cold shots due to the -AO, -NAO combo. These things are generally transient worldwide as I'm sure we will find out again. Some of the cooling is related to the return of west-Pacific tropical forcing. In a -AO, mid-latitude cooling is usually offset by high latitude warming. January/February 2010 were some of the warmest months of all-time despite both expansive snowcover and a deep -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GISS came in at 0.76C+ for October. Tied with 2005 for the warmest October on record. So far on the year GISS is averaging .664C+. 2010 averaged .661C+ on the year. 2010 finished with a .74C+ in November and a .44C+ in December. Which is a .59C+ average for the two months. Pending more revisions. 2014 is now nearly 100% clinched to break the GISS record. The talk of cooling from August onwards has not materialized one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Some of the cooling is related to the return of west-Pacific tropical forcing. In a -AO, mid-latitude cooling is usually offset by high latitude warming. January/February 2010 were some of the warmest months of all-time despite both expansive snowcover and a deep -AO. 1. January of 2010 was the 6th warmest January on record. Which is putrid given the ONI index at the time. February was the 2nd warmest on record. The ONI index from Nov-Feb 09-10. 1.4 1.6 2010 1.6 1.3 2. High latitude warming did not off-set mid latitude cooling in January of 2010. The raging torch over the tropics kept the month decently warm for such a nino. Nor did that happen in February of 2010. Where once again the tropics carried the month. 60-90 North is WAYYYYY to small of an area to off-set even half of any mid latitude cooling during an -AO. '' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Reynolds OISST data is in for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 GISS came in at 0.76C+ for October. Tied with 2005 for the warmest October on record. So far on the year GISS is averaging .664C+. 2010 averaged .661C+ on the year. 2010 finished with a .74C+ in November and a .44C+ in December. Which is a .59C+ average for the two months. Pending more revisions. 2014 is now nearly 100% clinched to break the GISS record. The talk of cooling from August onwards has not materialized one bit. 2014 will very likely be among the three warmest years barring a fairly unlikely substantial cooling and could make a run at the record. FWIW, 2010 had an anomaly of 0.675° during the January-October period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The global light wind regime continued in October ftp://ftp.remss.com/wind/monthly_1deg/ws_v07r00_198801_201410.time_series.txt wind speed anomaly (m/s) 60N-60S 20N-20S 2014 1 -0.031 -0.047 2014 2 -0.085 -0.068 2014 3 -0.070 -0.112 2014 4 -0.138 -0.085 2014 5 -0.093 -0.118 2014 6 0.037 0.133 2014 7 -0.012 0.248 2014 8 -0.338 -0.394 2014 9 -0.485 0.050 2014 10 -0.403 -0.282 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 No update on November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 No update on November? Not much else to know at this point. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 No update on November? Looks like temps bottom out next week on Tuesday or Wednesday before rising again. However, it doesn't look like they'll be going above 0.1C on the CFS anytime soon. The cooling next week would drop temps to -0.15C on the CFSR: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not much else to know at this point. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png He knows how to find the weatherbell CFS graphics. Is trying to bait us because the global temps are cooler now than they have been in a long while. But it hasn't cooled off as much as it looked like it was going to a few days ago. The monthly is still equal to a 0.70C+ on GISS. With the daily back up above 0C on CFS. We are reaching the point where near record warm is some sort of "cooling". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 He knows how to find the weatherbell CFS graphics. Is trying to bait us because the global temps are cooler now than they have been in a long while. But it hasn't cooled off as much as it looked like it was going to a few days ago. The monthly is still equal to a 0.70C+ on GISS. With the daily back up above 0C on CFS. We are reaching the point where near record warm is some sort of "cooling". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not much else to know at this point. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png Access forbidden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like temps bottom out next week on Tuesday or Wednesday before rising again. However, it doesn't look like they'll be going above 0.1C on the CFS anytime soon. The cooling next week would drop temps to -0.15C on the CFSR: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ Cool, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 The current cooling has been confined solely to the Southern Hemisphere, and appears to be a result of a shift in tropical forcing, rather than the -AO. Next week, the Northern Hemisphere is indeed progged to cool, but not to a large extent. Rather, the tropics and Southern Hemisphere contribute to about 70% of the cooling. As long as tropical forcing stays out of Nino mode, global temperatures will probably remain depressed, at a lower baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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