2014 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

Because the accelerated latent/sensible heat flux from the oceans explains why the temp drop was confined to the landmasses. We're talking about the lower troposphere here, not the surface. Those scorching SSTs don't just vanish. A portion of them is mixed into the deeper waters, while another portion is released into the atmosphere, both through conversion to latent heat and direct conduction. That kind of heat doesn't just vanish in to thing air.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS dailies have gone back up to 0.30C on the dailies.  The monthly is up to 0.185C+.  A 0.74C+ giss equivalent.

 

We now have a solid chance to finish October above 0.20C+.

 

Which would be higher than September.

 

Tomorrow we should expect CFS to reach 0.35C+ and on Friday finish the month of October around 0.45C+.  Then back down around 0.40C on Saturday. 

 

So November is going to start out very very warm.  And the current forecast beyond November 1st shows:

 

Nov 2nd: 0.73C

Nov 3rd: 0.71C

Nov 4th: 0.72C

Nov 5th: 0.75C

 

 

Basically verbatim thru November 5th CFS will be averaging between 0.30C and 0.40C on the monthly.  Which is way early still.

 

But last year plummeted by the end of the 1st week.  This year isn't going to do that.  Of course it won't stay at 0.30 to 0.40C for the entire month.

 

In 2013 November finished 0.170C on CFS but a 0.75C on GISS.  The CFS equivalent was for 0.67C on GISS.

In 2012 November finished at .188C on CFS and a 0.69C on GISS. The equivalent was 0.68C so almost a perfect match.

In 2011 November finished at -0.095C on CFS and 0.50C on GISS.  The equivalent was 0.46C.

 

 

So there is likely a small bias for CFS to project to cool in November because the climo for the poles hash changed a lot.  In other words the 0.55C correlation is not evenly spread across the world.  When you are translating that correlation to GISS and it's 1951-1980 climo there would have to be a correction to make up for how much colder the arctic was back then versus during the 1981-2010 cimo.  If the global average conversion is .55C but say the arctic itself converts with a 2.5C certain temp regimes will inherently be bias towards being warmer than what CFS correlates too.

 

With that said right now I feel decently confident GISS in November has a chance to finish above 0.80C.  The current record is 0.75C in 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

YTD

[nflwxman]

Interestingly enough that .114 anomaly on the CFSv2 correlates nearly perfectly to where GISS sits for the year.  Around 0.665. (Adding the .55 as the normal conversation).

[chubbs]

September was a record breaking month for the surface temperature series keeping them on track for annual records. An adjustment to prior GISS values lowered 2014 a little more than the record year.

 

[Msalgado]

Sorry, but anyone feeling decently confident about a guess is still just making a guess.  Saying that November will be .8, .6, or .75 is simply a guess as there's no skill involved.  November is starting out warm, and I am not sure where that warmth is going to go considering ENSO, but that still leaves a wide range of possibilities which are below or far below .8.

[nflwxman]

Sorry, but anyone feeling decently confident about a guess is still just making a guess.  Saying that November will be .8, .6, or .75 is simply a guess as there's no skill involved.  November is starting out warm, and I am not sure where that warmth is going to go considering ENSO, but that still leaves a wide range of possibilities which are below or far below .8.

 

I think there could be some skill on a monthly basis.  Climate, like weather, can have monthly analogs going back into the near past.  Let's look at the last 5 Novembers:

 

2009: 0.71C- Budding El Nino: a solid analog, but also 5 years in the past (thus likely 0.08-0.1C warmer all else being the same).

 

2010: 0.74C- Faltering El Nino: Not a good analog, but still outwardly warm compared to the months surrounding it

 

2011: 0.50C- Strong La Nina: Not a good analog

 

2012: 0.69C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

2013: 0.75C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

Given the above, we can say with some confidence that we would at least see a 0.69C anomaly on GISS.  Obviously, we all understand there are very high uncertainties with these, as monthly outliers can occur.

 

Personally, I like the 2009 analog (with added anthropogenic warming), thus I would put a 0.76-0.81C range on November.

 

It's not strong science, but it's fun nonetheless.

[chubbs]

I think there could be some skill on a monthly basis.  Climate, like weather, can have monthly analogs going back into the near past.  Let's look at the last 5 Novembers:

 

2009: 0.71C- Budding El Nino: a solid analog, but also 5 years in the past (thus likely 0.08-0.1C warmer all else being the same).

 

2010: 0.74C- Faltering El Nino: Not a good analog, but still outwardly warm compared to the months surrounding it

 

2011: 0.50C- Strong La Nina: Not a good analog

 

2012: 0.69C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

2013: 0.75C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

Given the above, we can say with some confidence that we would at least see a 0.69C anomaly on GISS.  Obviously, we all understand there are very high uncertainties with these, as monthly outliers can occur.

 

Personally, I like the 2009 analog (with added anthropogenic warming), thus I would put a 0.76-0.81C range on November.

 

It's not strong science, but it's fun nonetheless.

In addition SST are warmer than previous years and we appear to have switched to a light global wind regime so expect warmth to be favored until something changes to break the trend.

[nflwxman]

In addition SST are warmer than previous years and we appear to have switched to a light global wind regime so expect warmth to be favored until something changes to break the trend.

Yeah.  I think we have begun to overwhelm all the natural cooling factors of the last 10 years, as indicated by the recent shallow OHC uptick.  "Normal" to "above normal" warming rates should ensue over the next decade assuming the PDO doesn't crash further than it already has IMO.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS is finishing October with a 0.195C+ which is a GISS equivalent of 0.75C+

 

GISS might be a few hundredths cooler than September.  But NCDC and Hadley will both be warmer.

 

 

Looking at the models no sign of any cool down is coming.  The first third of November is going to torch hard.

 

Then below we can see another push of warm sub-surface temps is moving across the EPAC.  With 4C+ now showing up. That is very impressive.

 

We will see this continue to press towards the SA coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Msalgado]

I think there could be some skill on a monthly basis.  Climate, like weather, can have monthly analogs going back into the near past.  Let's look at the last 5 Novembers:

 

2009: 0.71C- Budding El Nino: a solid analog, but also 5 years in the past (thus likely 0.08-0.1C warmer all else being the same).

 

2010: 0.74C- Faltering El Nino: Not a good analog, but still outwardly warm compared to the months surrounding it

 

2011: 0.50C- Strong La Nina: Not a good analog

 

2012: 0.69C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

2013: 0.75C- ENSO NEUTRAL: A decent analog

 

Given the above, we can say with some confidence that we would at least see a 0.69C anomaly on GISS.  Obviously, we all understand there are very high uncertainties with these, as monthly outliers can occur.

 

Personally, I like the 2009 analog (with added anthropogenic warming), thus I would put a 0.76-0.81C range on November.

 

It's not strong science, but it's fun nonetheless.

 

I definitely believe there is some skill involved, just not to the point where we can make calls within a margin of error of under ,1.  I don't see any reason to believe that there is going to be much cooling, but I also don't see a reason to suspect an anamoly of over .8.

 

This is all definitely very fun.

[chubbs]

Roy Spencer has a blog post on possible cloud and water contamination of satellite data. Also discusses differences between uah and rss in response to a comment. Sounds like a minor update to uah is still in the cards.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

[chubbs]

UAH ticked up to 0.37 in October warmest this year

[GaWx]

Folks,

If the US and much of Eurasia were to get a solidly cold winter, I wonder if it would have enough weight to knock temp.'s down to more than counter the warming from El Niño and possibly actually allow for some cooling of global temperatures between now and the winter. Any opinions? What happened to global temp.'s between Oct. of 1976 and Feb. of 1977, for example? Anyone know?

[ORH_wxman]

Folks,

If the US and much of Eurasia were to get a solidly cold winter, I wonder if it would have enough weight to knock temp.'s down to more than counter the warming from El Niño and possibly actually allow for some cooling of global temperatures between now and the winter. Any opinions? What happened to global temp.'s between Oct. of 1976 and Feb. of 1977, for example? Anyone know?

 

 

Temperatures rose rapidly from early autumn 1976 into early 1977...that was the period of a huge PDO shift. Not just for one season, but the decadal shift is marked at 1976.

 

OTOH, temperatures fell from autumn 1977 into early 1978 despite the El Nino redeveloping that autumn.

[GaWx]

Temperatures rose rapidly from early autumn 1976 into early 1977...that was the period of a huge PDO shift. Not just for one season, but the decadal shift is marked at 1976.

 

OTOH, temperatures fell from autumn 1977 into early 1978 despite the El Nino redeveloping that autumn.

Will,

Thanks. So, perhaps 1977-8 is an analog to consider especially since the PDO is already high (so, supposedly less room to move too much higher anytime real soon). It looks to me that the University of Washington Oct. PDO has a pretty good chance to end up being 3rd highest Oct, PDO since 1900 and be ~+1.75. So, if much of the US and Eurasia really do end up getting the really cold winter that analogs suggest is a realistic possibility, perhaps we'll see some cooling rather than warming between now and early 2015.

[nflwxman]

Will,

Thanks. So, perhaps 1977-8 is an analog to consider especially since the PDO is already high (so, supposedly less room to move too much higher anytime real soon). It looks to me that the University of Washington Oct. PDO has a pretty good chance to end up being 3rd highest Oct, PDO since 1900 and be ~+1.75. So, if much of the US and Eurasia really do end up getting the really cold winter that analogs suggest is a realistic possibility, perhaps we'll see some cooling rather than warming between now and early 2015.

Jet stream placement can impact global temperatures on a monthly scale, but their impact becomes a bit blurrier on a yearly and certainly multi-year time scale.  Remember how little land the continental US is compared the rest of the world. Some of our coldest winters have come during periods of heightened global temperatures.

 

Perfect example, Feb 2010.  Look at how cold Eurasia and the US is.  Yet the monthly GISS anomaly was 0.75, or the warmest Feb on record.  The tropics can tend to overwhelm everything in that sense.

 

[GaWx]

Jet stream placement can impact global temperatures on a monthly scale, but their impact becomes a bit blurrier on a yearly and certainly multi-year time scale.  Remember how little land the continental US is compared the rest of the world. Some of our coldest winters have come during periods of heightened global temperatures.

 

Perfect example, Feb 2010.  Look at how cold Eurasia and the US is.  Yet the monthly GISS anomaly was 0.75, or the warmest Feb on record.  The tropics can tend to overwhelm everything in that sense.

 

 

nflwxman,

 However, 2009-10 was a strong El Nino. 2014-5 is expected to be a much weaker one than 2009-10. Therefore, I don't think comparing to 2009-10 is apples to apples. What about 1977-8? That one was another weak El Nino.

 

Table of ENSO Nino 3.4 trimonthly SST anomalies since 1950:

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[ORH_wxman]

nflwxman,

 However, 2009-10 was a strong El Nino. 2014-5 is expected to be a much weaker one than 2009-10. Therefore, I don't think comparing to 2009-10 is apples to apples. What about 1977-8? That one was another weak El Nino.

 

'77-'78 was kind of weird...it did warm in late winter, but it cooled in the autumn and early winter. 1976-1978 was a back to back El Nino that waned in the spring/early summer of 1977 before redeveloping in autumn, but there was only a brief warming in Feb/Mar that year. It started warming in November, but then cooled in Dec/Jan before finally warming again for that brief spike.

 

It depends what dataset you use too. GISS showed a bit more warming in Feb/Mar 1978 than Hadcrut4 does. Hadcrut4 shows almost no warming that winter at all.

[nflwxman]

If you look at 1977 and 1978, winter temperatures were certainly elevated over the surrounding years.  It's tough to look at that period in terms of statistics because it's right after the PDO flipped and substantial warming took over.

[GaWx]

If you look at 1977 and 1978, winter temperatures were certainly elevated over the surrounding years.  It's tough to look at that period in terms of statistics because it's right after the PDO flipped and substantial warming took over.

 

nflwxman,

 I'm only talking about what it did from Oct. of 1977 to, say, Jan. or Feb. of 1978 just to give me an idea of what may happen between now and early 2015 if the US and Eurasia do, indeed, get a really cold winter. Will has addressed the comparisons between fall 1977 and early 1978.

 I have a feeling that Friv may be in a for a global temp. cooling surprise this winter because he seems to have warming blinders on due to El Nino. With this not being a strong El Nino, it is a far different story vs, 1997-8 or even 2009-10. Not only does the tropical Pacific not get as warm, but also the US ans Eurasia tend to be colder (with 2009-10 being a cold exception). We'll see!

[chubbs]

Just eyeballing recent years with high Eurasian snow like 2002, 2006 + 2009 there doesn't appear to be much correlation with global winter temperatures.

[nflwxman]

Just eyeballing recent years with high Eurasian snow like 2002, 2006 + 2009 there doesn't appear to be much correlation with global winter temperatures.

Agreed. I'm not seeing a strong correlation on a seasonal scale.  A single month (ie December), perhaps there is more there.  Expect global temperature anomalies to continue elevated and closely tied with the tropics.

[GaWx]

Just eyeballing recent years with high Eurasian snow like 2002, 2006 + 2009 there doesn't appear to be much correlation with global winter temperatures.

 

 2009 is not apples to apples as already mentioned since it was a strong El Nino. Also, 2006-7 and 2002-3 aren't apples to apples since they weren't overall cold US winters like 2009-10, 1977-8, and 1976-7. Actualy, 2006-7 was downright warm! Furthermore, 2002-3 was a stronger El Nino than 2014-5 is likely to be. In addition, whereas the Eurasian snowcover for 2002 and 2006 were pretty high, it wasn't as high as 2014 (though 2002 close).

 Bottom line: I'd like to know how likely it is that we cool down between now and Jan/Feb. if it ends up being a cold US and Eurasian winter and assuming just a weak El Nino.

[ORH_wxman]

You wont find a correlation with Eurasian snow cover in the fall for winter global temps I wouldnt think. Maybe a really tiny one.

 

Look at the total NH snow cover for winter months instead. If you filtered for ENSO, I'm pretty sure you'll find a correlation, though it won't be overwhelming.

 

The effect of global snow cover on sfc temps should be instantaneous.

 

 

I know Jan 2007's huge 0.92 anomaly on GISS must have been helped by very low snow cover that month in NH. Obviously ENSO helped too, but it blows away the record January and it is far from the strongest ENSO in the past 15 years. Likewise Feb 2002...nearly having the same anomaly as Feb 2010 despite 2002 not even being a +ENSO winter and 2010 being a strong El Nino. But snow cover that February of 2002 was 2nd lowest on record...which almost certainly helped in the warmth. Ditto for March 2002. The record March global temp is in the year 2002...not 2010. 2nd lowest snow cover on record in 2002.

 

It would be interesting to run some sort of a filter on ENSO and see how snow cover influenced temps. I'd bet there is some correlation...but I can't quantify it until setting up a simple model.

[chrisf97212]

UAH ticked up to 0.37 in October warmest this year

UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2014_v5.png

 

One would expect a lagged atmospheric response from the record SST's this year.

[bluewave]

The wild card over the last decade or so has been the cold NH land temperatures 

during the winter relative to the warmer pattern the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Reynolds SSTA data is not out yet for October 2014.

 

But the ERSST data is.  And it shows the claims of "cooling" have been SUBSTANTIALLY exaggerated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Reynolds data will be updated early next week for October 2014.  Currently the entire equatorial Pacific is running very warm. 

 

 

We are still running at record high ssta and the nino is still well below where it's going to peak at.

 

TAO is showing another decent warm push

 

 

 

 

 

We will have to wait and see how accurate the models are with the equatorial winds next week between 150W and the SA coast.

 

Looking like this thing is gonna pop off.

 

 

[LithiaWx]

There is no reason to believe we are going to be cooling in December, correct?

Also the Weatherbell CFs is torching for the start of November.

[The_Global_Warmer]

There is no reason to believe we are going to be cooling in December, correct?

Also the Weatherbell CFs is torching for the start of November.

 

 

None.

 

The only wildcard is that NH land masses in December can wildy swing very cold in the 30-50N belt which could cool global temps at the surface a lot from November.

 

This impact is much stronger over Asia than North America.

 

 

Last December featured big big cold anomalies over NA and the African/Asian tropical regions. 

 

 

But December was still pretty warm.

 

 

This year ENSO will be much warmer so it will take a lot more to off-set that to even 2013s level.

 

 

Now 2012 on the other hand had a cool ENSO region but it was the astronomical cold over Eurasia that pushed that December towards relatively cool.