nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 That's total garbage. I'd give HADCRUT4 a 50/50 chance, NCDC a 30/70 chance...GISS almost zero chance. I think OISST will do it, not sure about OSPO/NESDIS...and WINDSAT definitely won't. I don't understand why you hang your hat on day 7 GFS prognostications when you can predict global temperature variations by merely analyzing the progression of the tropical forcings. I figured this out a few weeks ago, myself. The tropical forcings alone suggest overall warmth until mid November, based on the ECMWF a weeklies. A Zero percent chance, eh? You really should look at how HadCRUT, NCDC, and GISS are doing this year (not sure if you are familiar).. Your percentages are simply not defendable on those. It would require an anomalously cool November and December for something like that to hold up. It's likely based on the warm Octobe from the CFS that GISS will break its record. I'm not sure why that's so hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 No one here has seen these windsat numbers or NESDIS. Until you post some proof of these validated and historical data sets and their climo they don't exist. NCDC having a 30% chance to break it's record is a joke. Just to tie 2010 for the NCDC record Oct-Dec only has to match the 21st century average for the three months. 2010 got a 0.58C for October on NCDC. 2014 is going to be around 0.70C. 2010 got a 0.74C for November on NCDC. 2010 got a 0.44C for December on NCDC. So please enlighten us and tell us what you think NCDC will bring in for November and December>? After October comes in at .70C+ on NCDC. In order for 2014 to TIE 2010. Let alone come in below it. It will have to average around a .46 to .47C+ for November and December. A 30% chance eh? ] As far Hadcrut. Thru August 2010 and 2014 are tied. Who want's to bet September on Hadley comes in about 0.600C or warmer? This is how 2010 fared the rest of the way on Hadcrut: 2010/09 0.439 2010/10 0.493 2010/11 0.587 2010/12 0.339 Who wants to bet that October on Hadley comes in about 0.575C or warmer? Who wants to get that hadcrut in November and December is no where near cool enough to end up lower than 2010? For posting so much about this topic. It's quite funny that you don't even know what the historical precedents are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 A Zero percent chance, eh? You really should look at how HadCRUT, NCDC, and GISS are doing this year (not sure if you are familiar).. Your percentages are simply not defendable on those. It would require an anomalously cool November and December for something like that to hold up. It's likely based on the warm Octobe from the CFS that GISS will break its record. I'm not sure why that's so hard to believe. I keep track of everything. The straight, un-tuned statistical approach you're taking is wholly inapplicable. When tropical forcing returns to the W-PAC in November, what will drive the warmth? We'll have both a stronger Walker Cell and cooling SSTs. The models missed the coupling of the MJO 2 weeks ago, but now that we have a wave to work with, it's easy to analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I keep track of everything. The straight, un-tuned statistical approach you're taking is wholly inapplicable. When tropical forcing returns to the W-PAC in November, what will drive the warmth? We'll have both a stronger Walker Cell and cooling SSTs. El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 So please enlighten us and tell us what you think NCDC will bring in for November and December>? After October comes in at .70C+ on NCDC. For posting so much about this topic. It's quite funny that you don't even know what the historical precedents are. Or maybe I'm looking at data that you're not...CERES. All of the years you mentioned were ENSO-driven, and featured a negative radiative imbalance on CERES, centered between 20N-20S with a high AAM integral. To this point, 2014's warmth has been driven by higher latitude SSTs, and a large positive radiation imbalance is noted just about everywhere except over the E/C-PAC right now. You can order the CERES a data for yourself, if you must. http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/products.php?product=EBAF-TOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Feeling the love in here. Anyway, November has warmed the fastest of any month the last 20 years. This could be that the trades and ENSO are less impactful in the November time frame (since they have both been trending negative). One would think the major N. Hemispheric snowcover could cause a small negative temperature forcing this November. We shall see. I expect November to post another 0.7+ on GISS based on recent performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 So basically you can't post the windsat ssta data set and climo because you made it up? So basically you can't post the windsat ssta data set and climo because you made it up? Take it to PMs and rip each others throat out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 The data is available since 2003. If you can't decompress the files, try this: http://ghrsst.jpl.nasa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Take it to PMs and rip each others throat out. So folks can lie and trash others and it should just go to PMs? I doubt bold face lying over and over and over would be acceptable in one of your snow tracking threads. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 How did that work out for you in August? No good. How did that work out for you in September? No good. How did that work out for you in October? No good. NCDC and Hadley are locks. You won't even address it because you are full of BS. Please use your approach and give us your predictions for GISS, NDDC, and Hadcrut for November and December. You claimed that August was the peak of the warming. That was wrong. You said September might reach 0.70C on GISS if it maxes out. Didn't max out and reached 0.78C. You said October would be 0.60C on GISS. Currently GISS predicts to a 0.72C October. Not even close. Now you are claiming November and December will be radically colder than October. Because that is what it's going to take to give GISS no chance, NCDC a 30% chance, and Hadcrut a 50% of a new record. Would you like to try and redeem yourself and make a good prediction by putting out numerical predictions for the three data sets or November and December? You blow 90% of your predictions of temps AND ice, this is just comical you would go there with him. Mega 'copter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Take your windsat convo to PM, it's irrelevant in here unless we can use it operationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 So folks can lie and trash others and it should just go to PMs? No one is lying..just order the data and decompress the file. It's not hard..I'd teleport myself over there and do it for you if I could, just to put an end to this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 You blow 90% of your predictions of temps AND ice, this is just comical you would go there with him. Mega 'copter. Nailed it. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 So folks can lie and trash others and it should just go to PMs? I doubt bold face lying over and over and over would be acceptable in one of your snow tracking threads. Just saying. Be careful. You're standing on new ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You blow 90% of your predictions of temps AND ice, this is just comical you would go there with him. Mega 'copter. He admits it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Be careful. You're standing on new ice. I said he was making it up. And he still can't post it because he is making it up. He trashes me and that's cool? I didn't even use the word lying until the reply to you. I simply called him out on it. He failed to provide the data and then melts down trashing me still not able to provide the data and I am on thin ice? I think lying in a scientific forum should be unacceptable. I also thinking trashing someone the way SOC just trashed me is unacceptable. But taking someone to task for making things up puts one on thin ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 He admits it though. If I blow this one, I'll admit it as well. I don't think I will, but it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I said he was making it up. And he still can't post it because he is making it up. He trashes me and that's cool? I didn't even use the word lying until the reply to you. I simply called him out on it. He failed to provide the data and then melts down trashing me still not able to provide the data and I am on thin ice? I think lying in a scientific forum should be unacceptable. I also thinking trashing someone the way SOC just trashed me is unacceptable. But taking someone to task for making things up puts one on thin ice? #unhinged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 I said he was making it up. And he still can't post it because he is making it up. Again, you're full of crap. I linked the data to you, Dr. Spencer used it in a recent blog post. Yes, I'm attacking you, because you're being intentionally stupid. Knock it off. Send a PM my way if you must, otherwise please stop. I guess Dr. Spencer was making it up, too? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/2014-global-sst-not-looking-like-a-record-so-far/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 #unhinged Why don't you address his specific prediction with constructive thoughts? I'm essentially saying the same thing as him in that it's likely we break global temperature records. Do you disagree, and if so, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Again, you're full of crap. I linked the data to you, Dr. Spencer used it in a recent blog post. Yes, I'm attacking you, because you're being intentionally stupid. Knock it off. Send a PM my way if you must, otherwise please stop. I guess Dr. Spencer was making it up, too? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/2014-global-sst-not-looking-like-a-record-so-far/ July 2014 is pretty far back, 2009-2010 was fading out towards the end of the year. We now have a bolstering ENSO signal as we approach 2015, or so it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Why don't you address his specific prediction with constructive thoughts? I'm essentially saying the same thing as him in that it's likely we break global temperature records. Do you disagree, and if so, why? I think Friv's list of data sets that would break a record was ridiculous. He claimed with near 100% certainty it was a lock. It's just absurd, so absurd it doesn't deserve a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 #unhinged He's blown a gasket or something. Inventing data? Pure lolz. I mean, I can understand if he takes issue with my prediction, but navigating a dataset should be relatively easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Again, you're full of s**t. I linked the data to you, Dr. Spencer used it in a recent blog post. Yes, I'm attacking you, because you're being intentionally stupid. Knock it off and discuss with me over PM. I guess Dr. Spencer was making it up, too? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/2014-global-sst-not-looking-like-a-record-so-far/ I said he was making it up. And he still can't post it because he is making it up. He trashes me and that's cool? I didn't even use the word lying until the reply to you. I simply called him out on it. He failed to provide the data and then melts down trashing me still not able to provide the data and I am on thin ice? I think lying in a scientific forum should be unacceptable. I also thinking trashing someone the way SOC just trashed me is unacceptable. But taking someone to task for making things up puts one on thin ice? Seriously, drop it....either post the actual data SOC, or stop using it in this thread since nobody can actually use it operationally from a climo standpoint. I'm sure it exists...it is not made up as friv suggests, but there is no reason to talk intently about it unless some numbers are posted. And friv, get off your moderating high horse...the with insults you spewed at people in the past and the leniency you were given, I'm not sure why you'd even go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I think Friv's list of data sets that would break a record was ridiculous. He claimed with near 100% certainty it was a lock. It's just absurd, so absurd it doesn't deserve a response. Yet you respond to him everytime. Just not with data-more mirrored insults and copters'. See the issue with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Seriously, drop it....either post the actual data SOC, or stop using it in this thread since nobody can actually use it operationally from a climo standpoint. I'm sure it exists...it is not made up as friv suggests, but there is no reason to talk intently about it unless some numbers are posted. And friv, get off your moderating high horse...the with insults you spewed at people in the past and the leniency you were given, I'm not sure why you'd even go there. Huh? I already said from the beginning that it is not an operational dataset...that was never the issue...he said I made it up. Read my earlier post..the data outage is the reason why I mentioned it: The STAR site is down, so is OSPO. I get WINDSAT data via subscription. So, how am I in the wrong here? I brought it up casually, as a good 30-40% of all systems are non-operational. The dude just went off the rails for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Uh, I already said from the beginning that it is not an operational dataset...that was never the issue...he said I made it up. Read this: So, how am I in the wrong here? Well talking about those datasets doesn't seme very relevant when discussing the ongoing changes in temperatures unless we can actually see these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Well talking about those datasets doesn't seme very relevant when discussing the ongoing changes in temperatures unless we can actually see these numbers. Okay. Problem is the data outage has compromised most of the operation sites like OSPO..that's why I mentioned it. That doesn't excuse the crap that was thrown at me..like, who would invent an imaginary dataset? It's just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I'm not sure anyone is accusing you of making up the dataset. I think we just question it shows what you claim, is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 I'm not sure anyone is accusing you of making up the dataset. I think we just question it shows what you claim, is all. So you think I'm lying about the data? Really? Scientific integrity is, and has always been my core principle. It's funny, I've always been called an alarmist by my peers, but I almost feel a denier when I post here. Maybe I'm just treating this board like an academic circle when I should be treating it more like Twitter, but I'm a bit dumbfounded, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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