tacoman25 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 You seem to miss the point that the temp can drop but that doesn't mean the anomaly will follow suit. No one here (AFAIK) ever disputed the ocean would get cooler. That is simply a seasonal fluctuation. Above normal in OND doesn't have to be warmer than JAS to be above normal by the same magnitude. You're missing the difference between SSTA and SST. The sea surface anomalies have dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 You're missing the difference between SSTA and SST. The sea surface anomalies have dropped. No, I am not. I'm aware that SSTA have dropped. I'm talking about surface temperatures anomalies which have not dropped even thought they incorporate the lower SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 No, I am not. I'm aware that SSTA have dropped. I'm talking about surface temperatures anomalies which have not dropped even thought they incorporate the lower SSTs. Then why were you just talking about the ocean in that post? It wasn't very clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Then why were you just talking about the ocean in that post? It wasn't very clear. I was talking about the ocean because SOC has stated that he believes that the cooling in the oceans would be reflected in surface temps. The both are very obviously related so I'm not sure why you're surprised when both are mentioned or discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Found a nice plot of the 50-day change in SST anomaly in the AmWx modeling center. Cooling in the northern oceans has been balanced by warming elsewhere. The progression to El Nino/+PDO is also evident. Note the map projection overemphasizes high latitudes so the relative extent of warming in the tropics is understated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Found a nice plot of the 50-day change in SST anomaly in the AmWx modeling center. Cooling in the northern oceans has been balanced by warming elsewhere. The progression to El Nino/+PDO is also evident. Note the map projection overemphasizes high latitudes so the relative extent of warming in the tropics is understated Not balanced. The cooling has out-weighed warming by 0.33C last time I checked the OISST/NESDIS/STAR compilation, and continues to do so. Not sure why you decided to make eyeball guesstimates instead of looking at the raw numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Great find. The tropics are very warm all over the entire Earth. CFS is running at 0.162C+ for the month with about a week left. That is a 0.71C+ GISS equivalent. AMSU channel 6 temps are currently warmer than every year between 2005-2012. Virtually tied with 2002-04 and 2013. Given we are at the start of the nino. I expect quite a bit more warming to make it's way up in the mid levels as this cool season unfolds. Warmth has expanded on TAO. First 3C+ anomaly over the CPAC sub-surface in a while. The other warm pool over the EPAC has also expanded. Winds are favorable for more warming over ENSO 1-2 -3. Not shown below but another decent positive anomaly is modeled into November between 130-100W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Not balanced. The cooling has out-weighed warming by 0.33C last time I checked the OISST/NESDIS/STAR compilation, and continues to do so. Not sure why you decided to make eyeball guesstimates instead of looking at the raw numbers? There is zero chance global ssta on OISST have cooled .33C. Can you post where you are getting these raw numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The pacific anomalies have vaporized. pretty amazing flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Not balanced. The cooling has out-weighed warming by 0.33C last time I checked the OISST/NESDIS/STAR compilation, and continues to do so. Not sure why you decided to make eyeball guesstimates instead of looking at the raw numbers? Yeah, that's not right. There has not been a fall like that since the plunge into the 2011 La Nina. The tropics are quite a bit larger and the southern hemisphere is waking up as well. Global SSTas fall every year starting in September and this is not usual- but nothing even close to 0.3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Ironically CFS dailies have jumped to 0.33C+ today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 There is zero chance global ssta on OISST have cooled .33C. Try reading the post again. Who said anything like that? Edit: I meant NH, not global. My fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Yeah, that's not right. There has not been a fall like that since the plunge into the 2011 La Nina. I meant to write NH, so that's my fault. Still don't understand why you're posting the August-September differential? Not exactly relevant. Almost all of the global SST cooling has occurred in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Where are you getting this raw data for OISST? Nomad is down. KNMI only updates monthly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I meant to write NH, so that's my fault. Still don't understand why you're posting the August-September differential? Not exactly relevant. Almost all of the global SST cooling has occurred in October. I posted the graph as a diagram to show previous drops in global SSTas. I'd buy 0.3C cooling in the NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Where are you getting this raw data for OISST? Nomad is down. KNMI only updates monthly. OMG, dude. Yes, it's down...but the numbers can be found through ESRL. The cooling has out-weighed warming by 0.33C last time I checked the OISST/NESDIS/STAR compilation, and continues to do so. Not sure why you decided to make eyeball guesstimates instead of looking at the raw numbers? I was referring to the NH in this post, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I meant to write NH, so that's my fault. Still don't understand why you're posting the August-September differential? Not exactly relevant. Almost all of the global SST cooling has occurred in October. Your missing the pattern of changes. Cooling in the weat Pacific and warming in the east indicates trades are weak and movement to El Nino continues. Thats not a cool signal.for global temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 I posted the graph as a diagram to show previous drops in global SSTas. I'd buy 0.3C cooling in the NPAC. Some of the SST data diverges..WINDSAT (microwave analysis) has cooled more than OISST (IR interpolation). The STAR/NESDIS data on the OSPO site sits in between. When the site comes back up I'll link it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Your missing the pattern of changes. Cooling in the weat Pacific and warming in the east indicates trades are weak and movement to El Nino continues. Thats not a cool signal for global temps. Correct, it's a torch pattern. Isn't that what I posted here a week or so ago? Did a lot of digging today. This is now appears to be the big contributor to our recent warmth, taking over torch duty from the SSTs. Strong E-PAC tropical forcing & the coinciding weak Walker Cell = weak global winds, high AAM, & a global torch/fest. This signal dominated 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Yeah post that data please. The last update for September had the NH warming versus August. There is no way the October update is going to be at least 0.33C cooler than the September one. We would all love to have a source to the raw data. Bob Tisdale would surely like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Yeah post that data please. The last update for September had the NH warming versus August. There is no way the October update is going to be at least 0.33C cooler than the September one. We would all love to have a source to the raw data. Bob Tisdale would surely like that too. If you'd read: Some of the SST data diverges..WINDSAT (microwave analysis) has cooled more than OISST (IR interpolation). The STAR/NESDIS data on the OSPO site sits in between. When the site comes back up I'll link it. The STAR site is down, so is OSPO. I get WINDSAT data via subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 lol, always an excuse. Once again you got nothing. No better than "eye balling" it as you put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Correct, it's a torch pattern. Isn't that what I posted here a week or so ago? Only objection is your claim that it suddenly happened out of the blue the Pacific has been moving in this direction all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Only objection is your claim that it suddenly happened out of the blue been moving in this direction all year You're looking at two different things. The high frequency, high amplitude forcings have been quite variable despite favoring warmth overall..see 200mb velocity potential. The underlying, low frequency tropical forcing has indeed been trending towards the E-PAC. The big jump in the calculated, low-frequency averages occurred in mid-August: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Again nothing unusual for a slowly developing El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Correct, it's a torch pattern. Isn't that what I posted here a week or so ago? You're missing the part where you have to explicitly state we're torching our brains out in every post you make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You're missing the part where you have to explicitly state we're torching our brains out in every post you make. All of these below are essentially 100% locks at this point to break their yearly records. Hadcrut4 Hadsst3 OISST Reynolds ssta NCDC NCDC Ocean ssta GISStemp isn't as certain. But at the lowest it's coming in 3rd warmest on it's record. But the chances for GISS to be tied for 1st or 2nd or have it's outright record are very high. Assuming October comes in above 0.70C+ prospects become much better for record territory. UAH is going to finish 3rd or 4th on it's all time list. With things looking like 2015 is a lock for 3rd at the minimum right now and will likely challenge it's record barring a full reversion to NINA during the second half of next year. Which right now is not expected. CFS today has risen to 0.33C+. A daily GISS equivalent of 0.88C+. That is huge torching. Tomorrow CFS will likely get close to or hit 0.40C+. With another 0.35C+ on Sunday. Even with a decently sized chunk of Eurasia under cold to very cold anomalies this is happening. That is some pretty nasty warmth. Then if we look out at the start of November. The Eurasian cold pool gets ate up a lot. A 0.72C this far out is huge. That pattern depicted on the models right now has 0.50C+ on CFS written all over it. Which is a 1.0C+ daily giss equivalent. We saw that last year around this time. So yeah it's torching. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 You're missing the part where you have to explicitly state we're torching our brains out in every post you make. Lol. I have to admit, it seems that way. I'm not sure why either..I try to stay unbiased and call things as I see them but it's almost like people are hoping the Earth goes up in flames, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 All of these below are essentially 100% locks at this point to break their yearly records. That's total garbage. I'd give HADCRUT4 a 50/50 chance, NCDC a 30/70 chance...GISS almost zero chance. I think OISST will do it, not sure about OSPO/NESDIS...and WINDSAT definitely won't. Even with a decently sized chunk of Eurasia under cold to very cold anomalies this is happening. That is some pretty nasty warmth. I don't understand why you hang your hat on day 7 GFS prognostications when you can predict global temperature variations by merely analyzing the progression of the tropical forcings. I figured this out a few weeks ago, myself. The tropical forcings alone suggest overall warmth until mid November, based on the ECMWF a weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Again nothing unusual for a slowly developing El Nino What on Earth are you referencing here? The 850mb U-wind anomalies don't depict even the high frequency forcing well, let alone the underlying low-frequency forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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