2014 Global Temperatures

[bluewave]

The big question is how long will the Western Pacific record SST's persist that

are helping to drive the record trade winds associated with the hiatus? The 

97-98 Super El Nino was truly an historic climate event for the modern era.

Notice how the Western Pacific dramatically warmed following this event

and the trade winds reached record levels. It seems like this regime can

continue as long as the Western Pacific remains so warm.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/michael.alexander/han.et.al.sea.level.varaibility.Climate.Dyn.2013.pdf

 

As discussed earlier, in addition to the TIO warming, the 1999–2010 negative IPO phase is associated with WTP warming, whereas the 1945–1977 negative IPO phase is associated with WTP cooling (Fig. 10a, c). The WTP warming enhances east–west SST gradient and western equatorial convection, and therefore strengthens the equatorial easterlies in the central-western equatorial basin. It is unclear, however, whether this SST pattern change is part of the IPO natural variability, or it is affected by anthropogenic warming.

 

 

[chubbs]

NOAA confirms September's record warmth.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/9

 

 

"The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1998, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014."

The NOAA 12-month running average shown below is likely to continue its upward trend as it laps cooler values from last year. Still have a way to go in this ENSO cycle so may separate from previous El Nino peaks in 1998 and 2010.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv,

 However, despite this, the land areas alone seem to be more balanced overall per eyeballing thanks in large part to the extensive and solid cold in Russia/E. Europe in general. Ahhhh, the glory of extensive and way above normal snowcover!

 

The snow cover and subsequent cold air over it and it's negative feedback properties are probably helping prevent and all out continuous record level global torch-fest.

 

But we are literally still in the preliminary rounds just starting to get ready for the big show.

 

The prelims have carried 2014 at the surface and sea to records despite the tropics being neutral. 

 

Now the tropics are gearing up for a knock out blow.

 

 

Even though the current Nino is relatively weak.(yeah it's not classified yet) but we have stable weak nino conditions.  However other areas of the Earths oceans are UN-naturally warm. 

 

 

As we head into winter maybe the "cool" area in the NPAC running along 40-50N will become a lot colder anomaly wise but that huge area around the Hawaiian Island chain of 0.5-2.0C anomalies is a straight furnace relatively speaking.

 

It really extends down thru the equatorial region(ENSO 4) into the SPAC.  That is just a huge area to be above normal.

 

Then there is the NATL.  Besides the major warm anomalies along the NA East coast and Europe.  Now the entire NATL from the GOM/Caribbean to Africa is above normal from the equator to 30N.  The cool pool over the SATL has vanished.

 

Lastly almost the entire Indian Ocean is above normal. The Indian covers 20% of the Earths surface. 

 

 

 

 

 

So even with a damn cold Euro-Russia it only keeps things from being way above record warmth.

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Absolute monster warmth ssta wise this year.  Nasty.  IIRC this is at least the 2nd time the global temp monthly record has been beaten this year.

 

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest on record for September, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F), the sixth highest for September on record. For the ocean, the September global sea surface temperature was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), the highest on record for September and also the highest on record for any month.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–September period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), tying with 1998 as the warmest such period on record.

 

[LithiaWx]

NOAA confirms September's record warmth.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/9

 

 

"The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1998, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014."

 

That is some pretty incredible warmth.  I'm excited to see how fast this trend will continue upwards.

[chrisf97212]

That is some pretty incredible warmth.  I'm excited to see how fast this trend will continue upwards.

 

0.02F? What's the margin of error?  Still though, its not getting any cooler.

[ORH_wxman]

0.02F? What's the margin of error?  Still though, its not getting any cooler.

 

 

Definitely greater than the difference. Most of these metrics have error bars near 0.1C once you account for the imprecision of GHCN.

 

It's why basically any year over 0.60C on GISS is indistinguishable from the record highest. Though we tend to only really focus on the highest 3 or 4 hundreths (2010, 2005, 2007) when in reality more years could potentially be higher...but everyone wants to rank things, so we do it.

[LithiaWx]

0.02F? What's the margin of error?  Still though, its not getting any cooler.

 

Not sure on the MoE.  Regardless we are in the top warmest 12-month periods in our recorded history.  Very impressive.

[tacoman25]

That is some pretty incredible warmth.  I'm excited to see how fast this trend will continue upwards.

 

Oct/Nov unlikely to be as warm as Aug/Sep.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Oct/Nov unlikely to be as warm as Aug/Sep.

Yes, but October has been boosted by a strong E-PAC based tropical forcing and a falling AAO. That's the best intraseasonal torch combo you can get, despite falling SSTs.

This will likely progress in November with the W-PAC Hadley Cell strengthening along with the Walker Cell, based on the ECMWF a weeklies. So couple that with the falling SSTs overall and the gradual temperature drop should continue overall.

Overall, SSTs have dropped quite a bit since late September. The recent E-PAC forcing/ W-PAC subsidence has led to some SSTA warming in the IO/W-PAC, but this is likely temporary. The N-PAC warm pool is being eaten away very quickly.

[GaWx]

Yes, but October has been boosted by a strong E-PAC based tropical forcing and a falling AAO. That's the best intraseasonal torch combo you can get, despite falling SSTs.

This will likely progress in November with the W-PAC Hadley Cell strengthening along with the Walker Cell, based on the ECMWF a weeklies. So couple that with the falling SSTs overall and the gradual temperature drop should continue overall.

 

 I'd think that the large area of much below over the massive (for this time of year) extent of Eurasian snowcover could have a bit of a say for Oct. though China has been pretty warm I think.

[tacoman25]

 I'd think that the large area of much below over the massive (for this time of year) extent of Eurasian snowcover could have a bit of a say for Oct. though China has been pretty warm I think.

 

The weather Moscow is seeing right now is about what they usually see in mid December. Think about that...imagine Chicago seeing mid-December weather now. But the coldest anomalies for the month are going to be further east in north/central Russia.

[Msalgado]

Whether or not the globe cools actually isn't relevant.  What matters is the size of the anomaly.  Of course the SST have gone down.  The annual peak time is already passed.  A cooling trend with SSTs happens nearly every year at this time.  What is important is whether the global temps are warm relative to the baseline as opposed to the previous month's readings.

[StudentOfClimatology]

On the Sfc datasets, the SSTs are technically incorporated over the oceans largely as a substitution for station measurements. The SSTs really are the governor of near-ocean sfc temps, and that's 70-75% of the globe

[Msalgado]

You seem to miss the point that the temp can drop but that doesn't mean the anomaly will follow suit.  No one here (AFAIK) ever disputed the ocean would get cooler.  That is simply a seasonal fluctuation.  Above normal in OND doesn't have to be warmer than JAS to be above normal by the same magnitude.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You seem to miss the point that the temp can drop but that doesn't mean the anomaly will follow suit.  No one here (AFAIK) ever disputed the ocean would get cooler.  That is simply a seasonal fluctuation.  Above normal in OND doesn't have to be warmer than JAS to be above normal by the same magnitude.

 

This is a great point.

 

Right now CFS is currently at 0.158C+ for the month which is a GISS equivalent of 0.71C+.

 

But a huge warming trend pretty much explodes on the scene today.

 

 

 

 

[chubbs]

Yes, but October has been boosted by a strong E-PAC based tropical forcing and a falling AAO. That's the best intraseasonal torch combo you can get, despite falling SSTs.

This will likely progress in November with the W-PAC Hadley Cell strengthening along with the Walker Cell, based on the ECMWF a weeklies. So couple that with the falling SSTs overall and the gradual temperature drop should continue overall.

Overall, SSTs have dropped quite a bit since late September. The recent E-PAC forcing/ W-PAC subsidence has led to some SSTA warming in the IO/W-PAC, but this is likely temporary. The N-PAC warm pool is being eaten away very quickly.

  There is nothing unusual this month in the tropics, just the uneven slow progression to weak El Nino. The Pacific has a warm +PDO look indicating weak trades and weak upwelling in the E Pacific. Waters in the E and tropical N Pacific are likely to be warm all winter.

[nflwxman]

Oct/Nov unlikely to be as warm as Aug/Sep.

Based on?  We are still waiting for that big cool down that never came.  October very may wind up warmer than August.  Even with lower SST anomalies.

 

There has been no "gradual drop in temperature anomalies."  SSTas should begin to rebound slightly from their current levels as the southern hemisphere and tropics warm up.  This is not unusual as SSTas also rebounded in late october the past 2 years. The CFSv2 monthly average has literally been between 0.15-0.2 since August.  So this idea that October/November is going to have significantly cooler anomalies than August/September is wishful thinking, IMO.

[StudentOfClimatology]

You seem to miss the point that the temp can drop but that doesn't mean the anomaly will follow suit. No one here (AFAIK) ever disputed the ocean would get cooler. That is simply a seasonal fluctuation. Above normal in OND doesn't have to be warmer than JAS to be above normal by the same magnitude.

What do you mean the "anomaly"? The SSTA anomaly is dropping as well, as it always does at this time of year. It's be much more difficult to envision your scenario playing out, especially on the sfc datasets. The reasoning here is pretty straightforward, if you ask me.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Based on? We are still waiting for that big cool down that never came. October very may wind up warmer than August. Even with lower SST anomalies.

There has been no "gradual drop in temperature."

Yes there has, but it's been focused over the oceans thus far in the midst of both a falling AAO and heavy E-PAC forcing (weak WC). I admit I didn't see this progression in the MJO but otherwise it looks pretty straightforward to me.

The CERES anomaly reveals this well.

SSTs should begin to rebound slightly from their current levels as the southern hemisphere and tropics warm up.

No, they won't, unless the Nino strengthens notably. The W-PAC/IO warming is intraseasonally forced (MJO-driven subsidence), nothing more.

[nflwxman]

Yes there has, but it's been focused over the oceans thus far in the midst of both a falling AAO and heavy E-PAC forcing (weak WC). I admit I didn't see this progression in the MJO but otherwise it looks pretty straightforward to me.

The CERES anomaly reveals this well.

No, they won't, unless the Nino strengthens notably. The W-PAC/IO warming is intraseasonally forced (MJO-driven subsidence), nothing more.

 

1) Thought you said this anomaly was dropping, indicating higher tropical internal forcing on the atmosphere?

 

2) I'll keep that quote above here for posterity (I'll be sure to bring it back   ).  Southern hemisphere has a regional warming during boreal winter similar (but far less magnitude) as the northern hemisphere during boreal summer.  Could be related to slight hadley cell expansion in recent years even down south?  But again, just look to the near past to predict what happens in the near future.

 

By the way, noone was arguing with you that the NPAC would cool.  We all universally agreed that cooling would occur 30N+ after September as it has in years past.  Many of us just didn't think it would have a dramatic impact on global temperature anomalies.  It's proven to have not thus far.  A lot of the ridging that was over the NPAC has shifted more over land, increasing the anomalies there for the time being.

 

[Msalgado]

What do you mean the "anomaly"? The SSTA anomaly is dropping as well, as it always does at this time of year. It's be much more difficult to envision your scenario playing out, especially on the sfc datasets. The reasoning here is pretty straightforward, if you ask me.

 

 

The global temperature anomalies, of course.  I'm not so sure why its so difficult to envision that scenario playing out considering its currently happening.

[StudentOfClimatology]

The global temperature anomalies, of course. I'm not so sure why its so difficult to envision that scenario playing out considering its currently happening.

On what dataset are global SSTs increasing? Both OISST & NESDIS are decreasing. The whole thing is semantical, but I'd like my prediction to verify so I'm going to go balls to the wall over the next 3 months.

[StudentOfClimatology]

1) Thought you said this anomaly was dropping, indicating higher tropical internal forcing on the atmosphere?

Correct, but it's still positive. The CO2 bands are dampening though, as photosynthesis is shutting down in the NH. Effect is minor on this scale but it's still fun to watch.

2) I'll keep that quote above here for posterity (I'll be sure to bring it back ). Southern hemisphere has a regional warming during boreal winter similar (but far less magnitude) as the northern hemisphere during boreal summer. Could be related to slight hadley cell expansion in recent years even down south? But again, just look to the near past to predict what happens in the near future.

Haha, cool with me. Agreed on the Hadley Cells, seems to be AGW-related for sure to me but some scientists disagree. The Hadley Cell changes have been much greater in the NH, though, so those anomalies tend to dominate.

[chrisf97212]

Correct, but it's still positive. The CO2 bands are dampening though, as photosynthesis is shutting down in the NH. Effect is minor on this scale but it's still fun to watch.

Haha, cool with me. Agreed on the Hadley Cells, seems to be AGW-related for sure to me but some scientists disagree. The Hadley Cell changes have been much greater in the NH, though, so those anomalies tend to dominate.

 

Any theories on how the Hadley Cells are tied to CO2?   They were both at records in the NH but I'm at a loss to explain the correlation.

[Msalgado]

On what dataset are global SSTs increasing? Both OISST & NESDIS are decreasing. The whole thing is semantical, but I'd like my prediction to verify so I'm going to go balls to the wall over the next 3 months.

 

Who said anything about increasing?  I've stated several times that SSTs are dropping.  This has yet to be reflected in the surface temperature anomaly even though SSTs are such a large component is the point.  SSTs are definitely cooling, but they're not cooling ENOUGH.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Who said anything about increasing? I've stated several times that SSTs are dropping. This has yet to be reflected in the surface temperature anomaly even though SSTs are such a large component is the point. SSTs are definitely cooling, but they're not cooling ENOUGH.

What?

Global SSTs peaked in September on NESDIS & OISST..how do you figure they're not dropping enough when September (aka the peak) was the last data point? HADCRUT4 is only updated through August at this point.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Any theories on how the Hadley Cells are tied to CO2? They were both at records in the NH but I'm at a loss to explain the correlation.

There at least a half-dozen viable theories. Really hard to pin it down..

[Msalgado]

What?

Global SSTs peaked in September on NESDIS & OISST..how do you figure they're not dropping enough when September (aka the peak) was the last data point? HADCRUT4 is only updated through August at this point.

 

I'm going off of the correlation with CFS.  You are correct that it may be off, though.

[tacoman25]

Based on?  We are still waiting for that big cool down that never came.  October very may wind up warmer than August.  Even with lower SST anomalies.

 

There has been no "gradual drop in temperature anomalies."  SSTas should begin to rebound slightly from their current levels as the southern hemisphere and tropics warm up.  This is not unusual as SSTas also rebounded in late october the past 2 years. The CFSv2 monthly average has literally been between 0.15-0.2 since August.  So this idea that October/November is going to have significantly cooler anomalies than August/September is wishful thinking, IMO.

 

You added the "significantly". Subjective term, anyway. I've always just said cooler was likely, and still no reason to doubt that.