Jonger Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The NPAC has cooled by 0.8C on NESDIS after September 22nd. The WPAC has also cooled...so has the SATL..the entire NH has cooled, as a matter of fact. Only the IO & ENSO domains have warmed. OISST: Versus: I had to double take on the dates, the warming subsided so much that I thought I was looking at an old linked image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 With respect to GISS: 2014 (year-to-date) has had the 4th warmest January-September period: 1. +0.674°C, 2010 2. +0.657°C, 1998 3. +0.653°C, 2007 4. +0.651°C, 2014 The three warmest years on record are: 1. +0.658°C, 2010 2. +0.652°C, 2005 3. +0.619°C, 2007 2014 will very likely wind up warmer than 2007. The kind of cool down that would be required to see the temperature fall to or below the 2007 figure has not been very common in recent years. In the face of a possible emergent El Niño event, such a cool down is very unlikely. Whether 2014 will wind up as warm as 2005 or 2010 remains to be seen. Below are the average October-December anomalies needed to reach each of those years and the percentage of months and percentage of months in the October-December timeframe that saw such anomalies since 2009. To reach +0.658°C: October-December anomaly: +0.680°C 28% months since 2009 had an anomaly of +0.680°C or above 33% of months in the October-December timeframe had an anomaly of +0.680°C or above To reach +0.652°C: October-December anomaly: +0.653°C 29% months since 2009 had an anomaly of +0.680°C or above 42% of months in the October-December timeframe had an anomaly of +0.680°C or above To fall to +0.619°C: October-December anomaly: +0.523°C 25% months since 2009 had an anomaly of +0.523°C or below 33% of months in the October-December timeframe had an anomaly of +0.523°C or below Based on above need to be a little warmer than last years Oct-Dec anomaly of 0.65 to break record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I had to double take on the dates, the warming subsided so much that I thought I was looking at an old linked image. CFS jumped back up over 0.20C+ today up to around 0.23C+ on the dailies. The monthly is 0.157C+ or a 0.71C+ GISS equivalent almost half way thru October. It hasn't cooled as much as you think. Just looked at Madagascar to Australia. That area is way larger than the far NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 The NPAC above 5N has cooled by over 0.8C now on NESDIS. There has been very little change over the rest of the global aggregate. Why'd you stop posting the OISST dailies over the NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 In order for October to have a chance for a 0.60C anomaly on GISS now. The second half of the month will have to average roughly a -0.06C on CFS. I am going with slim to none on the chances of that. There is a good chance CFS reaches 0.30C+ today's update as well as Thursdays and close on Friday. The 18z update will also be very warm between .25 and .30C+. So we will easily be in the 0.175C+ range by this weekend a this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The NPAC above 5N has cooled by over 0.8C now on NESDIS. There has been very little change over the rest of the global aggregate. Why'd you stop posting the OISST dailies over the NH? The cooling that so many predicted is pretty impressive. The warm blobs retreat and vanish. Hopefully that continues or at least holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 In order for October to have a chance for a 0.60C anomaly on GISS now. The second half of the month will have to average roughly a -0.06C on CFS. How'd that work out in July? Sub-seasonal tropical forcings could very well mask the atmospheric cooling for a little while longer, as this stuff is hard to predict. However lot of the warmth is completely SST-derived so you're still relying on other factors. If the positive anomaly on CERES decreases substantially it would indicate strengthening Nino forcing..but we have yet to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 The cooling that so many predicted is pretty impressive. The warm blobs retreat and vanish. Hopefully that continues or at least holds serve. I'm in the process of running a statistical analysis between NH SSTs and temperatures on a 2 week resolution. I presume there's a lag and underlying noise but I want to be sure I'm not missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Change in weekly SST anomalies over past 4 weeks from this weeks CPC ENSO update. Cooling in northern oceans is balanced by warming in tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 How'd that work out in July? Sub-seasonal tropical forcings could very well mask the atmospheric cooling for a little while longer, as this stuff is hard to predict. However lot of the warmth is completely SST-derived so you're still relying on other factors. If the positive anomaly on CERES decreases substantially it would indicate strengthening Nino forcing..but we have yet to see that. Yes, if the CERES begins trending negative it would be a sign of nino chucking more heat into the atmosphere. However, you have to remember that we have been in la nina conditions relevantly constantly with increased trades that have likely kept the imbalance higher than it would otherwise be recently. It will take time to smooth out that imbalance with atmospheric warmth. The proverbial natural ENSO faucet has turned to luke warm in the atmosphere, but it won't warm the air quickly immediately. Not for nothing, the CERES does have a pretty high uncertainty on a monthly basis. I don't recall what the exact bandwidth is, but it's probably not the best procrastinator for month by month temperatures for that reason. Would you disagree? Like I said last month and the month before, a displacement of the ridge in the NPAC will ultimately mean very little for Global Temperatures as the jet stream will ebb and flow and displace that additional heat (from AGW and natural factors) elsewhere. I believe that chubbs' graphic above is one example of that. Other examples would be the persistent ridges that have moved over the land masses of western europe and NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Change in weekly SST anomalies over past 4 weeks from this weeks CPC ENSO update. Cooling in northern oceans is balanced by warming in tropics and Southern Hemisphere. very nice find. The Indian ocean and ENSO are definitely going to continue to get warmer over the next week. Then next week. North America is under the gun for warm anomalies. The sub-surface over the central equatorial Pacific has already started to respond to the on going favorable winds. We should see a decently sized blob of 3-4C+ anomalies blow up and spread Eastward next week. After a few relatively cool days to start off next week. CFS is showing a big warm anomaly on day 8. That is pretty impressive to be so far out there. Recently at least the GFS has had a cool bias in the medium range. The last cool period and current warm period were both modeled way to cool 4-5 days ago. And have been moderated/warmed up big time as they unfolded and arrived where we are today. The 06z update on CFS today has the daily around 0.26-0.27C+. It's being driven by the tropics/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Change in weekly SST anomalies over past 4 weeks from this weeks CPC ENSO update. Cooling in northern oceans is balanced by warming in tropics and Southern Hemisphere. sstdelta.png Massive cooling in the PAC NW. Very, very impressive cooling in the Northern Oceans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Massive cooling in the PAC NW. Very, very impressive cooling in the Northern Oceans. It's impressive how hot they became in the first place, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It's impressive how hot they became in the first place, really. Agreed there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yeah massive cooling so impressive the Earth is still rolling along at record warmth. So massive that it takes up like 10-15% of the NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 ENSO appears to be making it's push towards a weak nino with decreased trades and EKW surfacing. The atmosphere needs to continue to cooperate and it appears as SOI values will stay primarily negative for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 ENSO appears to be making it's push towards a weak nino with decreased trades and EKW surfacing. The atmosphere needs to continue to cooperate and it appears as SOI values will stay primarily negative for the next few weeks. All of the tropical/subtropical basins except the tropical SATL and just South of ENSO 1-2-3. have warmed recently and are still warming. It's been pretty rare during the warmth of 2014 for the tropics to be warmer than the world anomaly. The Eastern part of NA on this graphic really shows off the impact land has in the short term as well. Nothing like that warm or cold over the waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yes, if the CERES begins trending negative it would be a sign of nino chucking more heat into the atmosphere. However, you have to remember that we have been in la nina conditions relevantly constantly with increased trades that have likely kept the imbalance higher than it would otherwise be recently. It will take time to smooth out that imbalance with atmospheric warmth. The proverbial natural ENSO faucet has turned to luke warm in the atmosphere, but it won't warm the air quickly immediately. Not for nothing, the CERES does have a pretty high uncertainty on a monthly basis. I don't recall what the exact bandwidth is, but it's probably not the best procrastinator for month by month temperatures for that reason. Would you disagree? Like I said last month and the month before, a displacement of the ridge in the NPAC will ultimately mean very little for Global Temperatures as the jet stream will ebb and flow and displace that additional heat (from AGW and natural factors) elsewhere. I believe that chubbs' graphic above is one example of that. Other examples would be the persistent ridges that have moved over the land masses of western europe and NA. Just a glance at that CFS a graphic reveals how the high latitude warmth has been nearly 100% SST driven. Warming SSTs in the tropics will warm the lower troposphere a lot more via convectively governed latent heat release , but that doesn't have nearly as much effect at the surface. If the low latitude SSTs (30-60S) can warm enough to offset the warmth, then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Did a lot of digging today. This is now appears to be the big contributor to our recent warmth, taking over torch duty from the SSTs. Strong E-PAC tropical forcing & the coinciding weak Walker Cell = weak global winds, high AAM, & a global torch/fest. This signal dominated 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Did a lot of digging today. This is now appears to be the big contributor to our recent warmth, taking over torch duty from the SSTs. Strong E-PAC tropical forcing & the coinciding weak Walker Cell = weak global winds, high AAM, & a global torch/fest. This signal dominated 1997-98. Don't understand your point. The tropics haven't changed much recently with a continuing slow trend to weak El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Don't understand your point. The tropics haven't changed much recently with a continuing slow trend to weak El Nino. This is false. We're talking about intraseason tropical forcings that cycle regularly (think MJO, Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, etc). These traveling waves of subsidence & divergence migrate slowly west over the equatorial regions, altering the global circulations through the Hadley and Walker Cells. Over the last three weeks, we've seen a large increase in lift/divergence aloft from the E-PAC, and subsidence over the W-PAC, implying a weaker Walker Cell. This type of tropical forcing regimen is very Nino and favors a warm globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 This is false. We're talking about intraseason tropical forcings that cycle regularly (think MJO, Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, etc). These traveling waves of subsidence & divergence migrate slowly west over the equatorial regions, altering the global circulations through the Hadley and Walker Cells. Over the last three weeks, we've seen a large increase in lift/divergence aloft from the E-PAC, and subsidence over the W-PAC, implying a weaker Walker Cell. This type of tropical forcing regimen is very Nino and favors a warm globe. This should be expected though during a period of ENSO stregnthening. A lot of us figured that the N PAC would cool (which it did) but then be offset by a strengthening El Nino look in the tropics. While there's minor variances in the exact pattern that are hard to predict, the overall idea of a slowly strengthening ENSO and weakening of the N PAC warm pool isn't strange to me. Going as planned for the most part IMHO for global temps...I expect a warm Oct/Nov....we'll see about December. That month is a wildcard as it has been pretty volatile in the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 This should be expected though during a period of ENSO stregnthening. A lot of us figured that the N PAC would cool (which it did) but then be offset by a strengthening El Nino look in the tropics. While there's minor variances in the exact pattern that are hard to predict, the overall idea of a slowly strengthening ENSO and weakening of the N PAC warm pool isn't strange to me. Going as planned for the most part IMHO for global temps...I expect a warm Oct/Nov....we'll see about December. That month is a wildcard as it has been pretty volatile in the past decade. The intraseasonal forcings led to/are leading to the recent WWB activity, though. These unchained tropical forcings drive ENSO SSTs and often couple with them, but are not bound by them either if the state aloft is unfavorable (observe how the atmosphere behaved earlier in the year, baffling some experts). Global temps are what you make of them. I've laid out my prediction for an overall cooling from Sep-Dec based on satellite observations of the radiation budget and the cooling of global SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 CFS is up to 0.30C+ for the daily. 0.166C+ on the monthly Giss equiv of 0.72C+ for the 1st half of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 This should be expected though during a period of ENSO stregnthening. A lot of us figured that the N PAC would cool (which it did) but then be offset by a strengthening El Nino look in the tropics. While there's minor variances in the exact pattern that are hard to predict, the overall idea of a slowly strengthening ENSO and weakening of the N PAC warm pool isn't strange to me. Going as planned for the most part IMHO for global temps...I expect a warm Oct/Nov....we'll see about December. That month is a wildcard as it has been pretty volatile in the past decade. The cold snow cover effect to help reduce land temp is coming in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Cold snowcover effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 That pacific trough is really going to destroy my warm anomaly... I guess there was a really early snow in the Hawaiian island peaks today. That's one heck of a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Hadley sea surface temperature dropped to 0.578 in September but remained much higher than last year. The last four months are all well above the previous monthly record of .526 set in the 1998 nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Hadley sea surface temperature dropped to 0.578 in September but remained much higher than last year. The last four months are all well above the previous monthly record of .526 set in the 1998 nino. hadsst.png Whats hadley on the year now compared to it's record? It's cooler than GISS becuase the warm September poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The effect of the incredible snow cover extent on temps is real and it can be pretty large regionally. Solar insolation is still a bit over 150w/m2 at 60N. There is still insolation between 60-70N. And with snow cover already taking up residence below 60S well ahead of normal is most definitely effects local surface temps. It's understandable that such a simple concept like this would be to hard for some folks to grasp. A Negative feedback taking center stage for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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