2014 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

While I'm sure there are intricacies of the flow of radiation through the atmosphere that such a satellite based project could discover, OHC measurement are absolutely sufficient to provide a reasonable measure of the energy imbalance of the earth.

 

I believe researchers in the field would give you something like 90% confidence that the energy balance of the earth the last 5 years has been between .4-.7W/m2. The odds of rapid short term warming are probably low if the earth is that close to radiative balance already. 

 

As I said before, it's possible over the last 5 years that the imbalance has been growing and is now closer to 1W/m2 but because we can't measure it in real time very well we don't know this. That's not out of the question though given the slow rate of surface warming and solar maximum.

[StudentOfClimatology]

While I'm sure there are intricacies of the flow of radiation through the atmosphere that such a satellite based project could discover, OHC measurement are absolutely sufficient to provide a reasonable measure of the energy imbalance of the earth.

I believe researchers in the field would give you something like 90% confidence that the energy balance of the earth the last 5 years has been between .4-.7W/m2. The odds of rapid short term warming are probably low if the earth is that close to radiative balance already.

As I said before, it's possible over the last 5 years that the imbalance has been growing and is now closer to 1W/m2 but because we can't measure it in real time very well we don't know this. That's not out of the question though given the slow rate of surface warming and solar maximum.

Thanks for the reply.

Based on my studies in paleoclimate, I do not believe a smoothed multi-year imbalance is necessary to throw the system into a feedback loop, because the true imbalance actually varies by over 50W/m^2 from solstice to solstice, given our elliptical orbit. Large, abrupt global climate swings have occurred repeatedly in the past, and our current imbalance is FAR greater than what likely occurred then. This is a ticking time bomb.

The most recent abrupt climate shift, often referred to as the 8200kyr event, is evident in various proxies around the world. Our orbital parameters at the time (neutral precession and greater eccentricity) imply a very stable radiative budget relative to that of today, even when factoring out today's anthropogenic forcing of 1.7W/m^2 (and growing). Obviously, the climate went haywire, and it did not take a significant trigger. No evidence of excessive volcanic activity or significant freshwater drainage.

Given what we're doing to the atmosphere, I think the threat of a significant climate shift today is as real as it has ever been. Unfortunately it seems many people choose to stick their heads in the sand rather than acknowledge that we have to do something.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like weatherbell daily temp is trying to approach a 0 anomaly again after a couple weeks below below that. Monthly sitting at -0.13C so we'll see if that rises back above -0.10 over the next few days.

 

 

 

Ya'll should really discuss the idea of a catastrophic climate shift in another thread other than 2014 temps.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global temps have probably bottomed out in terms of this "cool spell".

 

The arctic was scorching so far but it's very small vs NA and Eurasia. 

 

In typical fashion during the last few winters the Earth has seen it's coolest global temps of the year during major blocking scenarios. 

 

This is because during winter and especially during a month like February when the NH sun angle is rising rapidly.  Having extensive snow cover and arctic air dumped South.  This helps amplify the anomalies. 

 

We can see a huge region of -4 to -5C to as cold as -9C over North America.

 

And a region twice as large of -4 to -5C all the way to a very very very impressive -12 to -13C. 

 

I am not sure if we call this a feedback or just circumstances of the weather pattern. 

 

But is unique because snow cover is required to drive it because of the ALBEDO effect.  This is predominant in February and potentially March when the solar insolation is increasing dramatically.

 

 

So even with the pretty substantial ENSO cooling and the incredibly favorable pattern for land locked cold during a period of well above normal snow cover.  And a +AAO helping keep Antarctica below normal. 

 

So far the weather-bell GISS equivalent would be .42C+ for February.

 

That is not very cold.  Outside of a major NINA.  It doesn't get better than this for cold than having 2/3rds of the major NH land masses in the deep freeze. 

 

 

It seems people are always extremely skeptical of a NINO happening this year.  But there is quite the gathering of warm water sub surface enso.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

 

 

 

 

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for January was the warmest since 2007 and the fourth warmest on record at 12.7°C (54.8°F), or 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is ± 0.08°C (± 0.14°F).
• The global land temperature was the highest since 2007 and the fourth highest on record for January, at 1.17°C (2.11°F) above the 20^th century average of 2.8°C (37.0°F). The margin of error is ± 0.18°C (± 0.32°F).
• For the ocean, the January global sea surface temperature was 0.46°C (0.83°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.5°F), the highest since 2010 and seventh highest on record for January. The margin of error is ± 0.04°C (± 0.07°F).

 

 

 

 

NCDC came in at .65C for January which is 4th warmest on it's records.

 

Weatherbell is back up to .-.10C for the month with a week left.

 

will probably finish around -0.080C.  Which would equal about a .47C on GISS.

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The mid Spring on will depend on how much heat builds and is then released.  This will probably continue to grow quickly with the anomalies being so warm at this point.

 

 

[bluewave]

This new long range El Nino forecasting method is going for an El Nino to develop

in 2014, but it doesn't get into the potential strength. They say their method correctly

predicted the absence of the El Nino development in later 2012 when the warming

peaked in September.

 

 

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-sounds-el-nino-alarm-for-2014-17052

 

The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.

 

 

The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.

“Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water  temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.”

The most important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'd say they may be on to something.  TAO/TRITON is often "cooler" than the CPC graphics.  But it's showing some major warmth still growing and heading East. 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

[The_Global_Warmer]

ENSO subsurface continues to warm and slowly expand East and North.

 

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

FWIW, New Jersey is colder than Greenland and Norway. That is something like 39N vs 65N...quite ridiculous even when you consider the regional onshore wind. Parts of interior Alaska were also warmer than very southern regions back in January. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

weatherbell dropped back down around -.10C again but came back up to near 0C and back down. 

 

Never the less on the month it is at -.092C with 3 days left. 

 

That equates to a .46C+ on GISS.

 

Global SSTA have slowly risen the last month.  Now back to .235C+

 

I am not sure how it will ultimately play out but if this continues much longer.  We are going to see some dramatic enso warming the next month.  So far the heat that is sliding East and now starting to move towards the surface has continued to build and not get shredded like we have seen most of the time since early 2010.

 

That is a pretty fat area of 4-5C+

 

More importantly TAO/TRITON continues to warm and head East and now starting to move surface bound a bit.

 

I fully expect the next OHC update to show either the highest in the last 12 months or right at it.  Probably going to explode by that.  This one has built up rather fast and furious.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has plummeted to -.20C on the dailes inspite AMSU channel 6 temps being in the top 3 warmest since 2002 at this time and the global ssta being warm.

 

February is going to definitely be around .45C or os on GISS.

[donsutherland1]

This new long range El Nino forecasting method is going for an El Nino to develop

in 2014, but it doesn't get into the potential strength. They say their method correctly

predicted the absence of the El Nino development in later 2012 when the warming

peaked in September.

 

 

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-sounds-el-nino-alarm-for-2014-17052

 

The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.

 

 

The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.

“Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water  temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.”

The most important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.

That's an interesting paper. Moreover, in the paper itself, it appears that the methodology is forecasting the development of a strong El Niño late this year.

[nzucker]

CFS has plummeted to -.20C on the dailes inspite AMSU channel 6 temps being in the top 3 warmest since 2002 at this time and the global ssta being warm.

 

February is going to definitely be around .45C or os on GISS.

Cold over the continents/landmasses.

[AvantHiatus]

CFS has plummeted to -.20C on the dailes inspite AMSU channel 6 temps being in the top 3 warmest since 2002 at this time and the global ssta being warm.

 

February is going to definitely be around .45C or os on GISS.

Not trying to derail your point but is the NASA Aqua satellite still useful? I read that the calibration is all messed up. Regardless global temps are still warm in light of the ENSO state.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Weatherbell finished at -0.099C for February.

 

and March is at -.199 thru four days.  A combo of a +AAO and continued very cold temps over land in parts of NA and Eastern Eurasia has led this march.

 

AMSU channel 6 temps have been running about 4th to 5th warmest out of 13 years the last couple of weeks. This is definitely a ground up cool spell enhanced by polar air and the snow albedo effect during late Winter in the Northern Hemisphere really laying out the cold anomalies.  Quite impressive.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not trying to derail your point but is the NASA Aqua satellite still useful? I read that the calibration is all messed up. Regardless global temps are still warm in light of the ENSO state.

 

 

Yeah the operational channels are still functional.

[AvantHiatus]

The cold air is draining out of the continents, a return to a strongly positive AO would give the US much deserved warmth and prevent the arctic ice from being obliterated.

[LakeEffectKing]

lands and sats on a few month divergence...

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4gl/last:132/offset:-0.146/plot/uah/last:132/plot/rss/last:132/plot/gistemp/last:132/offset:-0.238

[skierinvermont]

lands and sats on a few month divergence...

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4gl/last:132/offset:-0.146/plot/uah/last:132/plot/rss/last:132/plot/gistemp/last:132/offset:-0.238

 

 

Ehh not really, you can see that the sats have had lower anomalies throughout that chart because of the different base periods. 

 

The only time the anomalies are similar are during moderate and strong El Nino periods because the lower-tropospheric temperatures rise more during El Ninos than surface temperatures. 

 

The lack of significant ENSO variability has meant reduced temperature variability for the last year which makes the different base periods more obvious. During the big ups and downs from El Nino to Nina and back to Nino the differences are obscured.

[LakeEffectKing]

IMO, I see a decidedly divergent graph starting around this time last year....

The above graph includes offsets, so to be able to compare trends of the various datasets more easily, regardless of the different base periods.

Variability is to be expected, as you've correctly pointed out...but at some point, one can view a trend in variability, and over the last year or so, I think you can.

[skierinvermont]

IMO, I see a decidedly divergent graph starting around this time last year....

The above graph includes offsets, so to be able to compare trends of the various datasets more easily, regardless of the different base periods.

Variability is to be expected, as you've correctly pointed out...but at some point, one can view a trend in variability, and over the last year or so, I think you can.

 

Yes and the offsets aren't big enough. To put on the same base period the offset for GISS is .39 not .238. 

 

 

The correct offset (putting both on the 1981-2010 base period) makes things much easier to see. You can see that sometimes UAH is above GISS and sometimes it is below GISS. The current period of being below GISS is actually not even that big. There are longer/larger divergences in many other places in the graph.

 

It appears your graph was created to be deliberately deceptive by using an offset that made the current period of low variability to make it look like a divergence was taking place. It's a trick of the eye. Two lines can be exactly .2C apart but when they are moving up and down a lot they look closer together than when they are flat. 

[skierinvermont]

The Kelvin waves in the Pacific have been impressive. Odds of an El Nino are increasing. It could even be a strong one, which would likely shatter the global temperature record by a significant margin this year and/or next year.

 

Right now i'd give 40% chance neutral, 30% chance weak Nino, and 30% mod Nino by October. 60-70% chance ONI will be above .5 by October.

 

Unlike last year, the PDO is now slightly positive similar to 2009.

[StudentOfClimatology]

lands and sats on a few month divergence...

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4gl/last:132/offset:-0.146/plot/uah/last:132/plot/rss/last:132/plot/gistemp/last:132/offset:-0.238

I wouldn't have expected the surface and LT to warm in sync over the past 10yrs due to significant shifts in seasonal snow/ice cover, and the season circulations. These are prevalent in the higher latitudes of the NH, which happens to be where most of the divergence is occurring. It also is occurring during NH summer, for the most part.

Furthermore, a time length of 10 years is exceedingly small. If I had the time, I'd combine all of the data (UAH/RSS/NCDC/GISS/HADCRUT4) and use this for a global temperature average.

[skierinvermont]

I wouldn't have expected the surface and LT to warm in sync over the past 10yrs due to significant shifts in seasonal snow/ice cover, and the season circulations. These are prevalent in the higher latitudes of the NH, which happens to be where most of the divergence is occurring. It also is occurring during NH summer, for the most part.

Furthermore, a time length of 10 years is exceedingly small. If I had the time, I'd combine all of the data (UAH/RSS/NCDC/GISS/HADCRUT4) and use this for a global temperature average.

 

As I show above there is no divergence (at least as far as the precision of our methods allows us to detect). GISS and UAH have warmed at the exact same rate. RSS is probably a bit slower. But we really don't have the precision to say which is correct. 

[AvantHiatus]

Dang, Weatherbell CFS dailies jumped by about .23c in a 24 hour period. One of the largest jumps of the year. I suspect this is due to the ongoing Eurasian torch and departing of the North American PV.

[SVT450R]

UAH +0.17 for February so far to date it's cooler then last year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Dang, Weatherbell CFS dailies jumped by about .23c in a 24 hour period. One of the largest jumps of the year. I suspect this is due to the ongoing Eurasian torch and departing of the North American PV.

 

 

Not good with the impending Nino.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I wouldn't have expected the surface and LT to warm in sync over the past 10yrs due to significant shifts in seasonal snow/ice cover, and the season circulations. These are prevalent in the higher latitudes of the NH, which happens to be where most of the divergence is occurring. It also is occurring during NH summer, for the most part.

Furthermore, a time length of 10 years is exceedingly small. If I had the time, I'd combine all of the data (UAH/RSS/NCDC/GISS/HADCRUT4) and use this for a global temperature average.

 

 

Precisely.