The_Global_Warmer Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The surface has been at record warmth and September will continue that. But the Lower Troposphere hasn't. It's been running 4th warmest since 2013 roughly. But the response is muted versus the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The surface has been at record warmth and September will continue that. But the Lower Troposphere hasn't. It's been running 4th warmest since 2013 roughly. But the response is muted versus the surface. I would imagine the lower troposphere will respond in a few months. However, it is well known that UAH and RSS both respond more heavily to changes in tropical anomalies. Given we are neutral in the tropics, it's no surprise we are not breaking records on the satellite datasets....this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 October has started out torching hard as well. It's definitely going to cool off per the GFS. But that is relatively cool versus the past week of global torching. Seeing CFS drop to around 0C or even below it to -.10C isn't hard to do. But getting a couple weeks of it is. CFS a has a significant cool-down over the next 10-15 days, mostly driven by a rising AAO and more cold in the northern mid-latitudes. Not surprising given our intraseasonal starting point (-AAO, +AAM). Very likely that we see a drop-off in October, as expected. The NPAC hasn't cooled off very much while ENSO is warming but also the Indian Ocean which is a large equatorial basin itself has started warming steadily. It's cooled by ~ 0.55C on the NESDIS data, which is a pretty rapid rate of decline. Keep in mind our starting point..at this rate the N-PAC will fall to neutral by December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 The surface has been at record warmth and September will continue that. But the Lower Troposphere hasn't. It's been running 4th warmest since 2013 roughly. But the response is muted versus the surface. I highly doubt October will be breaking any records, just looking at the intraseasonal tropical forcings, not to mention the SSTs dropping above 30N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 CFS a has a significant cool-down over the next 10-15 days, mostly driven by a rising AAO and more cold in the northern mid-latitudes. Not surprising given our intraseasonal starting point (-AAO, +AAM). Very likely that we see a drop-off in October, as expected. It's cooled by ~ 0.55C on the NESDIS data, which is a pretty rapid rate of decline. Keep in mind our starting point..at this rate the N-PAC will fall to neutral by December. You also predicted a drop off in September. Even though the NPAC cooled, parts of the western US warmed in place. While the data is not out yet, it seems unlikely that September will be cooler anomaly-wise versus August meaning your prediction was incorrect. Also, It's impossible to predict a single month's anomaly with much accuracy when the month first begins. I still believe we will average over 70 for SOND on GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 You also predicted a drop off in September. I absolutely did not...please quote the post you're referring to. I predicted September would finish warmer than August, actually. Even though the NPAC cooled, parts of the western US warmed in place. While the data is not out yet, it seems unlikely that September will be cooler anomaly-wise versus August meaning your prediction was incorrect. Except I did not make that prediction...quite the opposite, actually. Quote the post you're referring to, please. Also, It's impossible to predict a single month's anomaly with much accuracy when the month first begins. I still believe we will average over 70 for SOND on GISS. Not specifically, but the OLR data is a very good precursor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think August was probably the peak, with the Autumn months coming in progressively cooler overall as the NH SSTs gradually cool, especially once we get into October/November/December. Here. It's no big deal. Just a prediction. We all make them and we will all be wrong time to time. But that doesn't mean we can't call out Noone knows that more than Friv, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Here. It's no big deal. Just a prediction. We all make them and we will all be wrong time to time. But that doesn't mean we can't call out Except that quote doesn't state what you claim it does, and I was referring to the global aggregate (satellite + surface), which you would have known if you'd read a bit deeper into that discussion. I have a huge pet peeve when it comes to people taking me out of context. I specifically referred to O/N/D, as well, and did not mention September. You're really pulling teeth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think August was probably the peak, with the Autumn months coming in progressively cooler overall as the NH SSTs gradually cool, especially once we get into October/November/December. StudentOfClimatology, on 15 Sept 2014 - 8:17 PM, said: Though I do think September will also run quite warm on the surface datasets. Maybe another 0.70 if it reaches max potential? I don't think the warmth be able to hold on through October. How is .70C+ max potential? 2005: .74C 2012: .68C 2013: .74C SSTS are much warmer than 2005, 2012, and 2013. That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Warmest Octobers on GISS: 2005: .77C 2003: .73C 2012: .73C 2013 came in at .62C. Again ssts are warmer than all of those years. Warmest Novembers on GISS: 2013: .76C 2010: .75C 2009: .72C 2005: .71C 2012: .69C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 - On the GISS baseline that'd hold true, but I'm speaking relative to the more widely used 1961-1990 Hadley Centre baseline.Translate the figures from my prediction onto your preferred baseline, if you must. - The correlation coefficient between SSTs above 30N and Hemispheric temperature is much stronger from May-September than it is from October-April. Given the lackluster ENSO (actually cooled last update) you're going to need another source of thermal forcing to make up for the cooling NH SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 We can nitpick, but what Student, myself, and maybe another couple people generally predicted is that the fall would likely come in cooler than the late summer, as the NH late summer peak drops off. Some disagreed. My specific prediction was that Oct/Nov would likely be cooler than Aug/Sep. Based primarily on NH SST cooling (from very elevated levels, of course). So it's way too soon for anyone to really claim anything either way about about cooling (or not cooling) anomalies in fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 - On the GISS baseline that'd hold true, but I'm speaking relative to the more widely used 1961-1990 Hadley Centre baseline.Translate the figures from my prediction onto your preferred baseline, if you must. - The correlation coefficient between SSTs above 30N and Hemispheric temperature is much stronger from May-September than it is from October-April. Given the lackluster ENSO (actually cooled last update) you're going to need another source of thermal forcing to make up for the cooling NH SSTs That is complete bull****. Maybe another 0.70 if it reaches max potential? Another huh? The last monthly .70C+ on Hadcrut was December 2006. You are lying out of your rear-end because you were/are to unfamiliar with GISS temp anomalies when you thru that out there. Only hadcrut uses 1961-1990. It's not widely used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 That is complete bull****. Another huh? The last monthly .70C+ on Hadcrut was December 2006. You are lying out of your rear-end because you were/are to unfamiliar with GISS temp anomalies when you thru that out there. Only hadcrut uses 1961-1990. It's not widely used. This is some high-caliber nonsense, even by your standards. Why the hell would I use the 1951-1980 GISS baseline when I've been openly opposed to it since joining here? September could very well pull a +0.7C on HADCRUT4 under optimal conditions...as you said, global SSTs are/were smashing all-time records, and September happens to hold the highest correlation coefficient w/ SSTs outside ENSO. Of all people, you're usually the one hyping this stuff. Get it together, man. There's no conspiracy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Yes, 0.2 on the CFSv2 generally means a GISS value between 0.7-0.8. Best guess is 0.75C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 Here's a great unisys SST animation from July - Present. Note the significant drop in SSTs over the last few weeks. The NATL has almost reversed, probably due to the vortex present up there: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 This is some high-caliber nonsense, even by your standards. Why the hell would I use the 1951-1980 GISS baseline when I've been openly opposed to it since joining here? September could very well pull a +0.7C on HADCRUT4 under optimal conditions...as you said, global SSTs are/were smashing all-time records, and September happens to hold the highest correlation coefficient w/ SSTs outside ENSO. Of all people, you're usually the one hyping this stuff. Get it together, man. There's no conspiracy here. You are just full of ****. It's not a conspiracy. You are just a liar. Now you are making up some ridiculous crap about baselines. BLAH BLAH BLAH. StudentOfClimatology, on 29 Sept 2014 - 10:18 PM, said: Just FWIW, I presented the study to a few oceanographers I know at U.M.D today, just out of curiosity. They both agree the paper should not have passed peer review. nflwxman, on 30 Sept 2014 - 3:21 PM, said: Which oceanographers? I know a few from UMD from my time working at the department at Rutgers. I'd love to discuss this topic at length with them as I'm not well versed. Answer the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 You are just full of ****. It's not a conspiracy. You are just a liar. Now you are making up some ridiculous crap about baselines. BLAH BLAH BLAH. Answer the question. Honestly, are you drunk? If not, you're a very, very stupid individual. I don't usually throw insults at people, but I don't know how else to respond to you...take a breather. Furthermore, I'm not going to drag any hard-working, professional scientists into this mud-slinging fiesta. Any further discussions on this matter must be done via PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 No one is slinging mud. You are a just a liar. Your lying about your temp prediction and you are totally lying about giving a presentation to oceanographers at UMD. I don't need to PM you about it. A red tagger pro met has already asked you multiple times about it and you won't answer. Haven't had a drink of booze in over 3 years. Just calling you out for the fraud you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 No one is slinging mud. You are a just a liar. Your lying about your temp prediction and you are totally lying about giving a presentation to oceanographers at UMD. I don't need to PM you about it. A red tagger pro met has already asked you multiple times about it and you won't answer. Haven't had a drink of booze in over 3 years. Just calling you out for the fraud you are. I'm honestly concerned for you. Seriously, you're wrong in all of your accusations of me. Do you want a photo-copy of my transcript? A picture of my student ID? You need to take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 I'm through with this nonsense..a complete waste of my time. Not sure why I took this guy off ignore, but I'll be taking care of that in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Just say who the oceanographers who you presented to are. nflwxman, on 30 Sept 2014 - 3:21 PM, said: Which oceanographers? I know a few from UMD from my time working at the department at Rutgers. I'd love to discuss this topic at length with them as I'm not well versed. You either gave a presentation to them or you didn't. I know NFLwxman has asked you about it and you won't answer him. You have no reason to not answer the question. No one needs to see your ID or transcripts. If you won't answer you are lying. It's pretty simple. While we are at it: The_Global_Warmer, on 12 Aug 2014 - 2:57 PM, said: Can we get some information on this "orbital drift" thing? Orbital decay on isle 5. Can we please get some backup for this crackpot bs? please? You need to relax. When I can get to a computer I'll post the email exchange I had with NOAA. Ok?All SST sources are very warm right now. No one is denying that. Your commentary here is uncalled for. Yeah that never happened either. We would all love to see what NOAA personally told you????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 Just say who the oceanographers who you presented to are. You either gave a presentation to them or you didn't. I know NFLwxman has asked you about it and you won't answer him. You have no reason to not answer the question. No one needs to see your ID or transcripts. If you won't answer you are lying. It's pretty simple. Check your inbox. I just PM'ed you this information in totality. Please do not drag them into this. Okay? While we are at it: Yeah that never happened either. We would all love to see what NOAA personally told you????? How do you remember stuff like this? If I still have those emails, they're way back of my inbox now. Either way, the ESRL site is down for maintenance at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I would never publically name any scientist I had a conversation with as it pertains to someone else's peer reviewed literature unless it was clear the conversation wasn't off the record. Not sure why ya'll are obsessing over it. Discuss the actual science of the paper(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I would never publically name any scientist I had a conversation with as it pertains to someone else's peer reviewed literature unless it was clear the conversation wasn't off the record. Not sure why ya'll are obsessing over it. Discuss the actual science of the paper(s). Most scientists will make it publicly known when they disagree with another scientists work (especially if the results clash with their work) without much qualm. I wouldn't want to put it in such a way as "shouldn't have passed peer review" but if I had a nickel for every time i've heard something like "Dr. X's work has some flaws" at a seminar I'd be a rich man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Most scientists will make it publicly known when they disagree with another scientists work (especially if the results clash with their work) without much qualm. I wouldn't want to put it in such a way as "shouldn't have passed peer review" but if I had a nickel for every time i've heard something like "Dr. X's work has some flaws" at a seminar I'd be a rich man. Right, that is their choice when to publically disagree with literature. It's not my decision to do it for them which is why I'd never do it. But then again, these opinions do not mean much anyway unless they are supported by solid evidence. If they disagree with a paper, then write a rebuttal, which happens a lot. If they can't write one or pass one through peer review, then their ideas are probably unsound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Right, that is their choice when to publically disagree with literature. It's not my decision to do it for them which is why I'd never do it. But then again, these opinions do not mean much anyway unless they are supported by solid evidence. If they disagree with a paper, then write a rebuttal, which happens a lot. If they can't write one or pass one through peer review, then their ideas are probably unsound. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Here's a great unisys SST animation from July - Present. Note the significant drop in SSTs over the last few weeks. The NATL has almost reversed, probably due to the vortex present up there: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif Yeah, an impressive change in the North Atlantic for sure. Would wager to say the AMO value for September will be quite a bit lower than August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Looks like the southern hemisphere has warmed up a decent amount in the CATL and Indian Ocean if that imagine is to be believed. Off topic, but that Atlantic cold cool pool might have ridge orientation implications come winter if it sticks around. Particularly in western Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I keep hearing a German accent when I read this thread. NAMES! GIVE ME ZA NAMES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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