LithiaWx Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 That area of 3C+ anomalies off the west coast of North America is just about gone (the 3C+ part). Was a huge blob a few days ago. navy-anom-bb.gif That huge blob is gone and we have seen some cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 26, 2014 Author Share Posted September 26, 2014 CFS dailies are back up to .26-.27C+ Running about +0.19C. Warm, but but not *that* warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 We could rename the NPAC The inferno of doom. The Equatorial SATL is warming nicely offsetting some of the cooling over the Eastern SPAC. The Equatorial Indian ocean is starting to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Virtually the entire ocean is cooling, right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Virtually the entire ocean is cooling, right on schedule. Temps.jpg I really can't tell from that graph. A lot of the cold anomalies (especially in the S. Atlantic) have moderated too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Virtually the entire ocean is cooling, right on schedule. That isn't very much cooling. Here is the most recently weekly ssta update covering all of 2013 to now. The meaning of each colored line on the graphic: Maroon is where 2013 was the same time a year ago. Orange is the peak monthly average during the 09-10 NINO(ONI of +1.6C) Green is the peak weekly average during the 09-10 NINO(ONI of +2.0C) Black is the 2013 weekly peak ssta(still lower than 2014s most recent update) Blue is where 2013 bottomed out in the second week of October(15 days from now) So cooling is pretty relative when the most recent update is still a top 5 warmest week on record if you don't count all of the 2014 record weeks when all of those occurred during strong to super nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Going by climate analyzer we should expect CFS to run between 0.20C to 0.35C+ the rest of the month into October. The annual torching arctic is starting up. The current CFS monthly average is 0.180. If CFS averages .25C the rest of the month it will finish about .192C+ around a 0.74C GISS equivalent. More importantly Climate analyzer shows CFS will probably start out October around .25 to .35C+ on the dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 The central Pacific warm pool continues to expand and warm. While the cooling over the NPAC has completely stopped for now. EDIT: CFS UP TO 0.29C+ on the dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Here is sea level rise data from NOAA covering the Southern Ocean. We can see the OHC data being completely verified. SSTS dropped hardcore after 2006 and have remained much lower since. While sea level rise ha risen about 30MM since then. SSTs dropping themselves would cause the sea level to drop all else being equal. But that didn't happen. The Southern Ocean has managed to pull out impressive SLR in the face of the ssts dropping off by about 0.3C Right now with CFS nearing .30C on the dailies it doesn't look very good going forward into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 CFS dailies have made it up to 0.34C+ today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 That N-PAC warmth is eroding very quickly now...NESDIS has it down 0.4C since September 22nd. Here's how it looked then, vs now on OISST: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Southern Hemisphere is starting to respond to increasing insolation. Should be an interesting race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Doesn't look much different. Which isn't going to have to be when you are at global sst records crushing the other years if you want a lot of cooling. The Indian ocean, S. Pacific, and Enso look warmer. According to the GFS we are going to start October around .40C+ on CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 The data is pretty straightforward, the N-PAC is down 0.40-0.54 since the 22nd depending on your dataset of choice and filter. With tropical forcings favoring an Aleutian low during the 1st part of October, it'll probably come down quite a bit over the next 4 weeks. El Niño tends to favor low heights in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 The site for global ssta weeklies and monthly anomalies is down and has been for over a day now. http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh I wish I would have saved the 27th graphic. the NPAC warmed up substantially over the N/NE side today. ENSO 1-2 and 3 have warmed up a lot the last 2-3 days. The arctic is warming up fast anomaly wise. But needs to go quite a bit higher before it starts to be a player in the global anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 No weekly ssta numerical data yet. but CFS has now reached 0.40C+ on the dailies. That is a daily GISS equivalent of 0.95C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 gee, i wonder why this thread is so dead and the antarctic sea ice thread is so active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 gee, i wonder why this thread is so dead and the antarctic sea ice thread is so active. Probably because there's a lot more to debate in terms of Antarctic climate versus global temperatures. This thread already went through the "active" phase..read back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 Drop in the AAO doing its dirty work...warmth on CFS a dailies has been solely driven by the Southern Hemisphere: Will be interesting to see how much warmer the SH can get with the AAO set to spike...currently warmest since May down there. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 gee, i wonder why this thread is so dead and the antarctic sea ice thread is so active. Because debating tenths of a degree above normal isn't the exactly exciting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Because debating tenths of a degree above normal isn't the exactly exciting? It's because September is ending on a flat out nasty global torch starting October with 0.40C+ CFS dailies. September is going to end with a CFS to GISS equivalent of 0.74C+ on GISS. While starting October with around a 0.95C+ daily equivalent. It's going to cool off quite a bit towards the middle and end of the first week of October tho. But the overall averages will be pretty damn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hadcrut4 records an August global temperature anomaly of 0.67C. This beats the former record by a whole 0.07C (the largest discrepancy of the months this year). Hadcrut4 is averaging 0.56C this year through August. For reference, the record for the entire year is 0.545C (2010). It appears increasingly likely that Hadcrut4 will break it's global temperature record in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hadcrut4 records an August global temperature anomaly of 0.67C. This beats the former record by a whole 0.07C (the largest discrepancy of the months this year). Hadcrut4 is averaging 0.56C this year through August. For reference, the record for the entire year is 0.545C (2010). It appears increasingly likely that Hadcrut4 will break it's global temperature record in 2014. In short, all three of the major datasets (GISS, HadCrut, and NCDC) reported a record high August temperature anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hadcrut4 records an August global temperature anomaly of 0.67C. This beats the former record by a whole 0.07C (the largest discrepancy of the months this year). Hadcrut4 is averaging 0.56C this year through August. For reference, the record for the entire year is 0.545C (2010). It appears increasingly likely that Hadcrut4 will break it's global temperature record in 2014. I wonder how much leaving 95% of Antarctica out of the equation affected this anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I wonder how much leaving 95% of Antarctica out of the equation affected this anomaly? It's possible leaving the actic (slightly below average) and antarctic inflated the value a bit for August versus GISS. That's generally the big critique of Hadcrut4, it does not infill missing data like GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 It's possible leaving the actic (slightly below average) and antarctic inflated the value a bit for August versus GISS. That's generally the big critique of Hadcrut4, it does not infill missing data like GISS. It works both ways tho. Here is July for GISS. GISS came in at .53C+ in July with both poles being being below normal. Here is May when GISS came in at an astounding .79C+. Here is August. The impact will be pretty negligible. This is only thru the 24th but for September Antarctica is going to come in blow torching on GISS. Probably going to push GISS towards the September record. Not that Antarctica hasn't been torching. It has with the dominant -AAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 It's possible leaving the actic (slightly below average) and antarctic inflated the value a bit for August versus GISS. That's generally the big critique of Hadcrut4, it does not infill missing data like GISS. So August 2014 was the hottest August globally that we have ever seen as long as records have been kept. That's a pretty big deal and fits well with AGW imo. I'm not sure how anyone could spin this any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 October has started out torching hard as well. It's definitely going to cool off per the GFS. But that is relatively cool versus the past week of global torching. Seeing CFS drop to around 0C or even below it to -.10C isn't hard to do. But getting a couple weeks of it is. The NPAC hasn't cooled off very much while ENSO is warming but also the Indian Ocean which is a large equatorial basin itself has started warming steadily. The S. Atlantic has warmed back up. The S/E SPAC is cool but not very cool. the W/C SPAC has started to warm up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 So August 2014 was the hottest August globally that we have ever seen as long as records have been kept. That's a pretty big deal and fits well with AGW imo. I'm not sure how anyone could spin this any other way. Yes, but it is just one month. Even a year is truly not significant in the grand scheme of things. Decades or more are a better measure of the true AGW signal due to natural variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 So August 2014 was the hottest August globally that we have ever seen as long as records have been kept. That's a pretty big deal and fits well with AGW imo. I'm not sure how anyone could spin this any other way. The only people who really spin it are those who want to deny that global warming exists or those who want to exaggerate the importance of the record. The rankings themselves are trivial statistics...the magnitude is what any hardcore scientist would be after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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