2014 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

This subject has been beaten to death. Let's just see what the next 3 months brings. At the end of the day, hadcrut4 and NCDC will likely break their records and let's say GISS is conservatively a coin flip.

We'll find out eventually. If ENSO strengthens, and/or SH SSTs warm enough to offset the NH cooling, I could see a record. Otherwise, I think we'll have to wait until 2015, barring a Niña.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yup, you can clearly see the cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and I expect the next update will continue to show that. The trough off the west coast right now is undoubtedly stirring up the water and cooling surface anomalies there.

 

Every single year has fallen right now without a strong NINO taking over.  And even those years where that may have been present had cooler ssts then this year still does.

 

 

 

The NPAC has cooled off some.  Over the last 4-5 days the Central and Subtropical Pacific has exploded upwards in ssta.  I am sure that will be a factor as well.

 

The Southern Hemisphere has been dropping seasonally and is plateauing now. 

 

 

 

 

The NEPAC hasn't cooled off very much.  There is that large ridge over the South Central NPAC that is helping bring a large area of big ssta.  The strong SLPs break down with the large ridge weakening and spreading ENE.

 

I bet a larger area of big warm anomalies emerges from the SWNPAC eastward and NE thru the Pacific.

 

 

 

The Atlantic is going to warm up again as well with the lows contained up by GIS with the +AO.

 

 

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Because global ssta dropped.

 

Global ssta are currently running .10C above 2013 with stronger ENSO support.

 

They are still at record levels crushing every other year at this point.

 

And there is stronger ENSO support then 2013.

 

October dropped to .62C and November came in at .76C with December at .63C.

 

For an OND average of .67C+

 

All with an ONI of -0.3 to .-0.4C.

 

Given global ssts are .10C above 2013 and have been for a long time with better ENSO support I can't see how it makes any sense that OND will be cooler than 2013.

 

 

 

I c

Friv,

   Please stop wish-casting. There will be a drop in surface temps, we are already seeing it.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Over the last 4-5 days the Central and Subtropical Pacific has exploded upwards in ssta. I am sure that will be a factor as well.

Exploded? :lol:

You've got maybe 0.01C there, with equal or greater cooling in the Atlantic.

[AvantHiatus]

Exploded? :lol:

You've got maybe 0.01C there, with equal or greater cooling in the Atlantic.

 

Just stop please, whatever happens will happen. I can see your a details kind of guy and cannot see the big picture. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Just stop please, I can see your a details kind of guy and cannot see the big picture.

Huh? This makes no sense...at all.

I don't understand why people can't accept the reality of AGW without letting underlying biases cloud their judgement. I enjoy posts from folks like ORH_Wxman, who have truly mastered scientific objectivity.

[nflwxman]

Friv,

   Please stop wish-casting. There will be a drop in surface temps, we are already seeing it.

This is not a correct observation at all. The CFSv2 has been elevated for the entire month and really hasn't dropped much at all.  In fact, it's in the midst of another rise in the next few days according to the GFS surface depiction.  Please share any data that shows otherwise for global surface temperatures.

 

[tacoman25]

As I said before, I don't think anyone can really tell the difference of whether the final 3 months comes in at 0.71 (which would produce a record) or 0.67 (which would not)...or any numbers slightly in either direction. The data itself is a bit too volatile.

 

I think fair reasoning has been given, though, for why .71 should not be expected. Both looking at statistics and the primary driver of recent warmth, everything points to a drop off below that as more likely.

[nflwxman]

I think fair reasoning has been given, though, for why .71 should not be expected. Both looking at statistics and the primary driver of recent warmth, everything points to a drop off below that as more likely.

No, that's just not correct.  Everything certainly does not show that, tacoman.  The statistics actually show the exact opposite of what you are suggesting for SOND.

 

I'm willing to give StudentofClimatology some benefit in his physical analysis.  He may be correct, who knows, but I would strong argue the statistics that Friv placed in several post ago point against a cooler SOND. 

[tacoman25]

Because global ssta dropped.

 

Global ssta are currently running .10C above 2013 with stronger ENSO support.

 

They are still at record levels crushing every other year at this point.

 

And there is stronger ENSO support then 2013.

 

October dropped to .62C and November came in at .76C with December at .63C.

 

For an OND average of .67C+

 

All with an ONI of -0.3 to .-0.4C.

 

Given global ssts are .10C above 2013 and have been for a long time with better ENSO support I can't see how it makes any sense that OND will be cooler than 2013.

 

Yes, exactly. Global SSTs dropped, and dropped quickly early last fall. And the same is happening this year. Sure, Sep is at record warm SSTA, but we are rapidly dropping from the peak. If 2013 could drop over .1 from Sep to Oct, the same could happen this year.

 

Again, weak ENSO has little effect month to month, especially in the fall. It's not like there has been a huge change in ENSO over the past few months.

[StudentOfClimatology]

No, that's just not correct. Everything certainly does not show that, tacoman. The statistics actually show the exact opposite of what you are suggesting for SOND.

You need to apply them correctly, though. There've been numerous occasions of ENSO-independent cooling over the OND period on the surface datasets, and they're almost always SST-driven.

So, you're either forecasting a strengthening of ENSO and/or enough warming in the SH to counteract the cooling over the NH waters.

Could happen, but it's too early to tell.

[tacoman25]

No, that's just not correct.  Everything certainly does not show that, tacoman.  The statistics actually show the exact opposite of what you are suggesting for SOND.  

 

I already thoroughly broke down the statistics. They show that over the past 15 years, there is a drop in Oct/Nov from Sep roughly half the time. Sometimes a significant drop. And when you consider the warmth of Aug/Sep this year has been driven primarily by NH summer SST heating and not ENSO, there is even less support for continued warmth at the levels we've seen the past couple months.

 

Could it happen? Of course. But given all the info we have, my opinion (and others) that we are more likely to see cooling has validity. 

 

I'd give about 30% chance of GISS breaking their record.

[nflwxman]

I already thoroughly broke down the statistics. They show that over the past 15 years, there is a drop in Oct/Nov from Sep roughly half the time. Sometimes a significant drop. And when you consider the warmth of Aug/Sep this year has been driven primarily by NH summer SST heating and not ENSO, there is even less support for continued warmth at the levels we've seen the past couple months.

 

Could it happen? Of course. But given all the info we have, my opinion (and others) that we are more likely to see cooling has validity. 

 

I'd give about 30% chance of GISS breaking their record.

 

Here is a concept that I think is being lost here.  ENSO does not just vanish if it's not in a La Nina or El Nino state.  In a way, it's always a primary drive of internal variability.  Whether it's releasing or absorbing more heat than "average" is constantly changing, thus constantly impacting the amount of heat in the atmosphere globally to disperse among other regions.  The trade winds modulating ENSO have weakened somewhat the last few months,  so yes, I'm expecting a weak nino later this fall to form.  Since we have been in an ENSO positive regime for the past 4 months or so, we now have more heat in the atmosphere than we did in 2013.  While it has not shown up strong in UAH data, I'm sure it will shortly due to lag of tropospheric dissemination.  

 

This also applies to SSTs in general. ENSO is not the only region that dumps heat into the atmosphere more or less than average.  The higher SSTs this summer allow for more heat to be available to keep the fall warm. Even if the SSTs themselves are cooling.  

 

But I am leaving room for doubt.  In a few month span, there are some natural cooling and ridge orientations that could lead to lower anomaly. I'm not saying it's a lock for GISS.  I just think it's very likely.

[tacoman25]

Look, it's fine to disagree. This isn't really a big deal at all. But to accuse me of not being objective, when I have actually provided plenty of evidence for why I think cooling is more likely, I find annoying. 

 

What reasoning has been given for why we should continue at .7+ levels through the fall, other than that's where we've been at the past couple months and we have (weak) +ENSO? I've explained why neither of those should give you any certainty on the warmth continuing at these levels.

[tacoman25]

Here is a concept that I think is being lost here.  ENSO does not just vanish if it's not in a La Nina or El Nino state.  In a way, it's always a primary drive of internal variability.  Whether it's releasing or absorbing more heat than "average" is constantly changing, thus constantly impacting the amount of heat in the atmosphere globally to disperse among other regions.  The trade winds modulating ENSO have weakened somewhat the last few months,  And yes, I'm expecting a weak nino later this fall to form.  Since we have been in an ENSO positive regime for the past 4 months or so, we now have more heat in the atmosphere than we did in 2013.  While it has not shown up strong in UAH data, I'm sure it will shortly due to lag of tropospheric dissemination.  

 

I just don't see any evidence that weak +ENSO is a reason to believe we sustain the anomalies. Weak ENSO years tend to have a lot of variation month to month. We've already seen that plenty in 2014 with GISS...Jan was .70, then Feb .45, then Mar .70 again. May shot up to .79 and then two months later July was all the way down to .53. There hasn't really been any defined trend. You'll find the same thing with many other neutral/weak ENSO years.

 

Look at late 2001-early 2002, for example. That whole period was weak ENSO, and you saw GISS go from .48 in Oct to .68 in Nov all the way back down to .52 in Dec. Then Jan came in at .72 and Mar then saw .89! There was absolutely no way to predict that sequence based on the ENSO changes over that period.

[ORH_wxman]

Here are JAS (July-August-September) vs OND (Oct-Nov-Dec) anomalies in the 4 Ninos since 2000 on GISS:

 

 

Year.....JAS....OND

 

2002....0.58...0.52

2004....0.38...0.59

2006....0.58...0.70

2009....0.64...0.63

 

 

I'd favor warmer based on this...but it is clear that it is far from high certainty too...I'd call it quite uncertain, but lean warmer. Obviously this is just in vacuum without any other info.

 

FWIW, if we say Sep 2014 comes in around 0.73 since it is running at 0.18 on wxbell, then that would put JAS in 2014 at 0.65. That would mean we would need to average 0.68C for the final 3 months to tie 2010. That is at the moment though because GISS revises values every month and they can change.

[tacoman25]

Here are JAS (July-August-September) vs OND (Oct-Nov-Dec) anomalies in the 4 Ninos since 2000 on GISS:

 

 

Year.....JAS....OND

 

2002....0.58...0.52

2004....0.38...0.59

2006....0.58...0.70

2009....0.64...0.63

 

 

I'd favor warmer based on this...but it is clear that it is far from high certainty too...I'd call it quite uncertain, but lean warmer. Obviously this is just in vacuum without any other info.

 

JJA ENSO ONI for those years.

 

2002: .8

2004: .5

2006: .2

2009: .5

 

2014: .0

 

Though ENSO has warmed some since that last trimonthly number, we still aren't close to where those years were at this point. Especially 2002 and 2009. I'm not sure why some have been calling this a Nino when it simply isn't, at least yet.

 

Also, what does it tell you that 2002 and 2009 saw more ENSO warming through the fall, and yet they didn't warm on GISS like 2004 and 2006 did? Like I said, there just isn't a great correlation between ENSO and fall anomaly trends. It's much greater in winter/spring.

[ORH_wxman]

JJA ENSO ONI for those years.

 

2002: .8

2004: .5

2006: .2

2009: .5

 

2014: .0

 

Though ENSO has warmed some since that last trimonthly number, we still aren't close to where those years were at this point. Especially 2002 and 2009. I'm not sure why some have been calling this a Nino when it simply isn't, at least yet.

 

Also, what does it tell you that 2002 and 2009 saw more ENSO warming through the fall, and yet they didn't warm on GISS like 2004 and 2006 did? Like I said, there just isn't a great correlation between ENSO and fall anomaly trends. It's much greater in winter/spring.

Definitely agree with that...the correlation is weak. Which is one reason I'm far from certain on any of these predictions.

[ORH_wxman]

Thank you for the link.

 

 

If you want to read more about TCR and IPCC AR5 and CMIP5 models...here's an article by Nic Lewis...coauthor of the Otto et al. 2013 paper:

 

http://climateaudit.org/2013/12/09/does-the-observational-evidence-in-ar5-support-itsthe-cmip5-models-tcr-ranges/

 

I had linked this climateaudit post by Nic Lewis about IPCC forcing and TCR...the ideas in here are now published:

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2342-y

 

non-paywall: http://niclewis.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/lewiscurry_ar5-energy-budget-climate-sensitivity_clim-dyn2014_accepted-reformatted-edited.pdf

 

 

[JBG]

Large portions of Russia, the Steppe, and southern Europe can torch during negative NAO events. As can Geenland and much of northern Canada.  I wouldn't think that the NAO has a strong correlation of absolute global temperature anomalies.  In fact, recent history has -NAO (DJFM 2009-2010) tied with some of the highest monthly global land anomalies. 

 

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/AO_NAO.htm

Something I have pointed out to my AGW-skeptic friends (I am a skeptic) during the 2009-10 winter was that the major snowtorm that affected the DCA and BAL area during December 2009 was matched by temperatures in Iqaluit, Nunavut that exceeded those prevailing in the Washington DC area.  Granted that was extreme but it demonstrates that below-normal local weather does not prove that it's cold everywhere.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Literally all data pertaining to reality is being ignored except by ORH.

 

But I am wish-casting.

 

As Alek would say:

 

Denierboard.

 

Looking forward to the magical fall of global ssta.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv,

   Please stop wish-casting. There will be a drop in surface temps, we are already seeing it.

 

Yeah I am sure you can see it.

 

Would you please break it down for the board?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Literally all data pertaining to reality is being ignored except by ORH.

But I am wish-casting.

As Alek would say:

Denierboard.

Looking forward to the magical fall of global ssta.

I don't deny science. A lot of false accusations and/or hyperbolic reasoning from you lately.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The NPAC is having issues with having a major cool down.  Or much of one at all.

 

 

 

Now the vortex is quickly breaking down with a large ridge sliding East further South covering more ground where the large area of ssta is expanding with a 2C+ region expanding.  Latitude wise this is a much larger region then the far NW/N/NE PAC.  Which it self hasn't cooled off very much.

 

 

 

 

And it's not going too. 

 

 

 

Here is OHC at 30 meters for AMJ.  You can see the N/NE PAC has a very warm and deep pool of heat.  You can also see the NATL doesn't.  Funny the NATL has cooled off pretty quickly.

 

What needs to be noted is how warm the Indian ocean sub-surface is.  It has been the largest OHC gainer of any ocean basin on Earth with near surface OHC recently. won't take much of a wind change to get her rolling.

 

 

 

Go down to 100M and it's still there. 

 

 

Even with the sub-surface pool essentially in neutral.  There is plenty of gas in the tank. 

 

 

 

Gotta watch the equatorial Indian Ocean. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The shift in main ridging also happens to coincide with a period where consistent insolation over the far NPAC is losing it's ability to push the ssta.

 

Further South between 30-50N this is much less of an issue.

 

 

[tacoman25]

Literally all data pertaining to reality is being ignored except by ORH.

 

But I am wish-casting.

 

As Alek would say:

 

Denierboard.

 

Looking forward to the magical fall of global ssta.

 

Nothing magical about it, and your own updates are already showing global SSTA falling at a rapid rate for the past couple weeks.

[nflwxman]

Nothing magical about it, and your own updates are already showing global SSTA falling at a rapid rate for the past couple weeks.

Yeah, SSTs will fall.  They almost always do this year.  But if you look at it in a relative sense, they will likely stay elevated versus previous years at this time.

[tacoman25]

The NPAC is having issues with having a major cool down.  Or much of one at all.

 

 

Hmm. Looks to me as though that area with the greatest anomalies in the northeastern Pacific has eroded a fair amount over just the past two days.

 

 

[tacoman25]

Yeah, SSTs will fall.  They almost always do this year.  But if you look at it in a relative sense, they will likely stay elevated versus previous years at this time.

 

Why?

 

Even if they stay elevated, they are still dropping. Which mean there's a good chance global temps will follow and not stay as high as they've been recently.

[tacoman25]

That area of 3C+ anomalies off the west coast of North America is just about gone (the 3C+ part). Was a huge blob a few days ago.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS dailies are back up to .26-.27C+