2014 Global Temperatures

[FoggyO]

Interesting Study published earlier this month (sorry it was mentioned before) entitled "Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss" by a team of Korean and American scientists.

 

The finding stated:

 

Abnormally warm waters in the tropical Atlantic travel up the Gulf Stream toward Europe in the late summer and fall months, motivating exceptional sea ice melt in the Barents-Kara seas north of Scandinavia. When that area is ice free, the open water releases heat into the atmosphere during November and December, and sets up an anomalous blocking pattern over the Ural Mountains. By midwinter, as more and more heat is being transferred to the Arctic, the troposphere and stratosphere can link up, destabilizing the polar votex, weakening the jet stream, and sending waves of cold air southward.

 

 

Link to article summarising the study along with a link to the study (which costs money)

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/03/new_study_links_polar_vortex_to_climate_change.html

[tacoman25]

I agree...I don't see much cooling coming with perhaps the exception of December being a wildcard. That month can come in cool if we have an expansive snow cover in the NH. But Oct/Nov have been warm in recent years...whether it is an El Nino or not.

 

August came in at .70 on GISS and September will likely be very similar. 

 

The average for October on GISS the past 8 years is .63. 

 

The average for November the past 8 years is .66. 

 

The average for December the past 8 years is .54.

 

Oct-Dec avg: .61

 

Even if the next three months come in warmer than that average, say .65, that would still be cooler  than what we've seen in Aug/Sep. Remember, we've had people throw out guesstimates of mid .70s for the rest of 2014, based on how warm we've been lately.

[tacoman25]

2005 is probably the path...though looking at that year, its not a total cakewalk...it put up some big numbers. We'll probably at least come close to matching 2005's 0.74 anomaly in September...but then it goes 0.77, 0.71, and 0.64 for the final 3 months. December is the wildcard to me. I think we'll stay fairly close to 2005 one way or the other going into December...but that is a month where I could see us putting up a 0.52 or a 0.80...its pretty volatile.

 

Based on averages, it is unlikely we match 2005's .74 for Oct/Nov.

[nflwxman]

August came in at .70 on GISS and September will likely be very similar. 

 

The average for October on GISS the past 8 years is .63. 

 

The average for November the past 8 years is .66. 

 

The average for December the past 8 years is .54.

 

Oct-Dec avg: .61

 

Even if the next three months come in warmer than that average, say .65, that would still be cooler  than what we've seen in Aug/Sep. Remember, we've had people throw out guesstimates of mid .70s for the rest of 2014, based on how warm we've been lately.

I feel like that is the right thing to do.  You can't lump 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 into your projections.  .  If you average Jan-August in the last 8 years (excluding 2014) you get an average of 0.58.  This year has averaged 0.66 so far.  So clearly, that is not the right method of projection. The end of 2014 is a different year than many of the last 8 since we are now ENSO positive and well...global warming.

[ORH_wxman]

August came in at .70 on GISS and September will likely be very similar. 

 

The average for October on GISS the past 8 years is .63. 

 

The average for November the past 8 years is .66. 

 

The average for December the past 8 years is .54.

 

Oct-Dec avg: .61

 

Even if the next three months come in warmer than that average, say .65, that would still be cooler  than what we've seen in Aug/Sep. Remember, we've had people throw out guesstimates of mid .70s for the rest of 2014, based on how warm we've been lately.

 

 

We'll need to cool in December IMHO. I don't see Oct/Nov cooling much.

 

But I am also not saying it is a lock like some others...there is no way we can forecast the temps precise enough to guarantee enough warmth for a new record on GISS. Oct could easily be like 0.68 instead of 0.75....we cannot forecast that difference, despite what anyone thinks. The margin for error on just the monthly calculation is several hundreths by itself.

 

 

But on the whole, I am skeptical of much cooling for those months. Whether its 0.67 or 0.70 or 0.77, I don't know, but I wouldn't predict 0.55 for October if you asked me right now.

[tacoman25]

I feel like that is the right thing to do.  You can't lump 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 into your projections. 

 

2012 actually had warmer ENSO leading up to the fall than 2014. Fall 2010, a developing Nina, was actually warmer temp-wise than 2009, a major developing Nino.

 

There simply isn't as much correlation with fall temps to ENSO as there is to winter/spring. Especially with weak/neutralish ENSO as we have now.

[tacoman25]

We'll need to cool in December IMHO. I don't see Oct/Nov cooling much.

 

But I am also not saying it is a lock like some others...there is no way we can forecast the temps precise enough to guarantee enough warmth for a new record on GISS. Oct could easily be like 0.68 instead of 0.75....we cannot forecast that difference, despite what anyone thinks. The margin for error on just the monthly calculation is several hundreths by itself.

 

 

But on the whole, I am skeptical of much cooling for those months. Whether its 0.67 or 0.70 or 0.77, I don't know, but I wouldn't predict 0.55 for October if you asked me right now.

 

Neither would I.

 

But a .65 would still be cooler than Aug/Sep, and take us off the record pace for GISS.

 

Again, what I have said is that I think there is a good chance Oct/Nov are cooler than Aug/Sep. NFLwxman thinks there is a good chance we are even warmer than Aug/Sep.

[nflwxman]

2012 actually had warmer ENSO leading up to the fall than 2014. Fall 2010, a developing Nina, was actually warmer temp-wise than 2009, a major developing Nino.

 

There simply isn't as much correlation with fall temps to ENSO as there is to winter/spring. Especially with weak/neutralish ENSO as we have now.

You are right, but the trajectory of ENSO was different. I would imagine that would impact December more than SON, but I agree it's tough to find a true analog. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Where is this cooling coming from?

 

Global ssts are going to be likely be the warmest on record going into October.

[icebreaker5221]

Can someone please throw me the link to UAH temps table.  I can only seem to find the old broken one atm.

 

Bump.

[ORH_wxman]

Bump.

 

 

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

[icebreaker5221]

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

 

Thanks!

[GaWx]

Where is this cooling coming from?

 

Global ssts are going to be likely be the warmest on record going into October.

 

Friv,

 Please specify what datasets to which you're referring. Are you including RSS and UAH in your prediction? I'm assuming not.

[nflwxman]

Friv,

 Please specify what datasets to which you're referring. Are you including RSS and UAH in your prediction? I'm assuming not.

He is talking about the surface datasets.  GISS (NASA), HadCrut4 (Hadley), JMA (Japanese Met Agency), and NCDC.

[GaWx]

He is talking about the surface datasets.  GISS (NASA), HadCrut4 (Hadley), JMA (Japanese Met Agency), and NCDC.

 

Thanks!

[tacoman25]

Where is this cooling coming from?

 

Global ssts are going to be likely be the warmest on record going into October.

 

This has been addressed multiple times. What has been driving global SSTs so warm? The NH ocean anomalies. These should cool over the coming weeks. It's possible that land anomalies may warm enough to offset that, but there is no guarantee of that.

[Jonger]

This has been addressed multiple times. What has been driving global SSTs so warm? The NH ocean anomalies. These should cool over the coming weeks. It's possible that land anomalies may warm enough to offset that, but there is no guarantee of that.

 

I don't know why it has been so hard for some to grasp.

[StudentOfClimatology]

We'll need to cool in December IMHO. I don't see Oct/Nov cooling much.

But I am also not saying it is a lock like some others...there is no way we can forecast the temps precise enough to guarantee enough warmth for a new record on GISS. Oct could easily be like 0.68 instead of 0.75....we cannot forecast that difference, despite what anyone thinks. The margin for error on just the monthly calculation is several hundreths by itself.

But on the whole, I am skeptical of much cooling for those months. Whether its 0.67 or 0.70 or 0.77, I don't know, but I wouldn't predict 0.55 for October if you asked me right now.

Just to clarify, I'm not predicting a plunge or anything, but I suspect Oct-Dec will average between 0.60 and 0.65.

I've done a lot of investigating on the surface warmth this year, and it appears to be solely SST forced. Statistically speaking, if/when SSTs drop even .2C, it will probably bring readings down by about 0.1 assuming little to no change in ENSO. Obviously if the El Niño strengthens notably, then this premonition can be thrown into the water.

[JBG]

I agree...I don't see much cooling coming with perhaps the exception of December being a wildcard. That month can come in cool if we have an expansive snow cover in the NH. But Oct/Nov have been warm in recent years...whether it is an El Nino or not.

There wasn't much warm about October or November 2009 or 2012.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The ssts aren't going to drop very much unless the patterns change.

 

If that happens then land areas will warm up.

 

The models continue to show a warm pattern thru September into the Start of October.

 

 

SSTA are currently .10C and .13C above the two warmest Septembers on GISS.

 

 

 

-

 

 

The far NPAC has cooled some now.  But the central pacific basin wide continues to warm up a lot.  The CPAC is much larger in area. 

 

The Southern Hemisphere has reached it's yearly low and starts to go up in a month.

 

 

Oct-Dec 2013.  Featured big ridging over the oceans.

 

GISS still averaged something like .65-.66C for OND with SSTS again that will likely be at least .10C cooler than 2014 thru the same period this year.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Oct-Dec 2013. Featured big ridging over the oceans.

GISS still averaged something like .65-.66C for OND with SSTS again that will likely be at least .10C cooler than 2014 thru the same period this year.

Unless you're predicting similarly strong ridging over the oceans for OND 2014 (less likely in a Nino) the mid/high latitude SSTs may actually cool to or below 2013 levels. The Pacific ridging in 2013 was responsible for those SSTs. If we replace it with an Aleutian Low, that often correlates to a negative AO/NAO. So the idea that the landmasses will torch without N-PAC ridging isn't factually rooted, either.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Things have started to come down over the past two weeks:

[nflwxman]

Unless you're predicting similarly strong ridging over the oceans for OND 2014 (less likely in a Nino) the mid/high latitude SSTs may actually cool to or below 2013 levels. The Pacific ridging in 2013 was responsible for those SSTs. If we replace it with an Aleutian Low, that often correlates to a negative AO/NAO. So the idea that the landmasses will torch without N-PAC ridging isn't factually rooted, either.

Large portions of Russia, the Steppe, and southern Europe can torch during negative NAO events. As can Geenland and much of northern Canada.  I wouldn't think that the NAO has a strong correlation of absolute global temperature anomalies.  In fact, recent history has -NAO (DJFM 2009-2010) tied with some of the highest monthly global land anomalies. 

 

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/AO_NAO.htm

[StudentOfClimatology]

Large portions of Russia, the Steppe, and southern Europe can torch during negative NAO events. As can Geenland and much of northern Canada. I wouldn't think that the NAO has a strong correlation of absolute global temperature anomalies. In fact, recent history has -NAO (DJFM 2009-2010) tied with some of the highest monthly global land anomalies.

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/AO_NAO.htm

Sure, they can, but whether or not they do depends on the overall NAM (AO) more than the NAO. The December AO is actually a fairly big wild card this year, IMO. Some signals pointing to a sustained -AO beginning in late November, others suggest we wait until January. If the latter occurs, it'd suggest a warmer outcome may be in the cards.

[tacoman25]

Oct-Dec 2013.  Featured big ridging over the oceans.

 

GISS still averaged something like .65-.66C for OND with SSTS again that will likely be at least .10C cooler than 2014 thru the same period this year.

 

 

Sep 2013 had a .74 anomaly on GISS. Oct dropped to .62. Why do you think that happened?

 

It really isn't outrageous at all to suggest there being a good chance of this fall being cooler than late summer. A very warm September doesn't mean temps will continue to stay that warm.

 

Years that saw a drop from Sep to Oct on GISS: 2013, 2009, 2007, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1998...it's happened many times.

 

Years where either Oct or Nov was at least .05 cooler than Sep: 2013, 2009, 2007, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000...

 

Years where either Oct or Nov saw a .08 or greater monthly drop from the previous month: 2013, 2011, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2000...

 

Clearly, it's not unusual to see a drop in fall anomalies, and that chance is elevated when late summer has been running so warm with only weak +ENSO support.

[tacoman25]

Things have started to come down over the past two weeks:

 

 

Yup, you can clearly see the cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and I expect the next update will continue to show that. The trough off the west coast right now is undoubtedly stirring up the water and cooling surface anomalies there.

[ORH_wxman]

Just to clarify, I'm not predicting a plunge or anything, but I suspect Oct-Dec will average between 0.60 and 0.65.

I've done a lot of investigating on the surface warmth this year, and it appears to be solely SST forced. Statistically speaking, if/when SSTs drop even .2C, it will probably bring readings down by about 0.1 assuming little to no change in ENSO. Obviously if the El Niño strengthens notably, then this premonition can be thrown into the water.

I'd probably take the over at this point on 0.60-0.65...I guess I could see 0.65, esp if Dec comes in fairly cool.

 

I do agree that some of this warmth is due to the N PAC ridging pattern, but as it breaks down, I expect some offset to occur given that ENSO is slowly strengthening (granted, its still pretty weak right now).

 

As I said before, I don't think anyone can really tell the difference of whether the final 3 months comes in at 0.71 (which would produce a record) or 0.67 (which would not)...or any numbers slightly in either direction. The data itself is a bit too volatile.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Sep 2013 had a .74 anomaly on GISS. Oct dropped to .62. Why do you think that happened?

 

It really isn't outrageous at all to suggest there being a good chance of this fall being cooler than late summer. A very warm September doesn't mean temps will continue to stay that warm.

 

Years that saw a drop from Sep to Oct on GISS: 2013, 2009, 2007, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1998...it's happened many times.

 

Years where either Oct or Nov was at least .05 cooler than Sep: 2013, 2009, 2007, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000...

 

Years where either Oct or Nov saw a .08 or greater monthly drop from the previous month: 2013, 2011, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2000...

 

Clearly, it's not unusual to see a drop in fall anomalies, and that chance is elevated when late summer has been running so warm with only weak +ENSO support.

 

 

Because global ssta dropped.

 

Global ssta are currently running .10C above 2013 with stronger ENSO support.

 

They are still at record levels crushing every other year at this point.

 

And there is stronger ENSO support then 2013.

 

October dropped to .62C and November came in at .76C with December at .63C.

 

For an OND average of .67C+

 

All with an ONI of -0.3 to .-0.4C.

 

Given global ssts are .10C above 2013 and have been for a long time with better ENSO support I can't see how it makes any sense that OND will be cooler than 2013.

 

 

 

I c

[StudentOfClimatology]

Because global ssta dropped.

Global ssta are currently running .10C above 2013 with stronger ENSO support.

They are still at record levels crushing every other year at this point.

And there is stronger ENSO support then 2013.

Remember though, the ridging over the SSTs in 2013 prevented a more significant cooling.

Tropical temperatures are very similar to where they were in 2013, too, despite the weak Niño. The huge +NAM in November/December also added to the warm anomaly over the Mid-Latitudes outside the U.S. It was a mathematical wash at best.

[nflwxman]

Remember though, the ridging over the SSTs in 2013 prevented a more significant cooling.

Tropical temperatures are very similar to where they were in 2013, too, despite the weak Niño. The huge +NAM in November/December also added to the warm anomaly over the Mid-Latitudes outside the U.S. It was a mathematical wash at best.

This subject has been beaten to death. Let's just see what the next 3 months brings. At the end of the day, hadcrut4 and NCDC will likely break their records and let's say GISS is conservatively a coin flip.