2014 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

On the subject of the remaining part of the year, it is logical to conclude that the SST's will cool and thus there will be cooling because of that. However, it remains that the latter portion of the calendar year has warmed faster than the rest of the year and there is some history there to suggest that this will continue to warm.

I don't believe El Nino needs to actively warm the atmosphere, either. The warm anomaly seres to close a pipeline for heat into the ocean, and simply doing that will lead to more warmth in the atmosphere.

The bottom line is that I doubt we have much skill in figuring out what the anomaly will be in coming months down to the point of hundredths of a degree anyway. There are reasons to guess in either direction so we'll see.

The problem is surface datasets largely incorporate/interpolate those SSTs to substitute for station data over the oceans. That's why there's such a diversion between the satellite data and the surface data. Those SSTs are being fed right into the averages, and they have a significant impact because there's little in the way of a diurnal cycle over the waters.

If those SSTs cool, they'll be taking the averages down with them, directly. The warmth will need to be made up elsewhere.

[StudentOfClimatology]

On the subject of the remaining part of the year, it is logical to conclude that the SST's will cool and thus there will be cooling because of that. However, it remains that the latter portion of the calendar year has warmed faster than the rest of the year and there is some history there to suggest that this will continue to warm.

I don't believe El Nino needs to actively warm the atmosphere, either. The warm anomaly seres to close a pipeline for heat into the ocean, and simply doing that will lead to more warmth in the atmosphere.

The bottom line is that I doubt we have much skill in figuring out what the anomaly will be in coming months down to the point of hundredths of a degree anyway. There are reasons to guess in either direction so we'll see.

The problem is surface datasets largely incorporate/interpolate those SSTs to substitute for station data over the oceans. That's why there's such a diversion between the satellite data and the surface data. Those SSTs are being fed right into the averages, and they have a significant impact because there's little in the way of a diurnal cycle over the waters.

If those SSTs cool, they'll be taking the averages down with them, directly. The warmth will need to be made up elsewhere.

If anything, the satellite data will warm as those warm SSTs accelerate evaporation/latent heat release in the troposohere.

[Msalgado]

Sure but the point remains that this happens every year and the following months are still posting very high anomalies.  Accurately saying the record won't happen this year is trying to predict the difference between a .65 anomaly and a .7 which I don't think is feasible.  I completely understand your viewpoint, but I also understand that this is typically what happens (even if the SSTs are higher this year) every year at this point.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Sure but the point remains that this happens every year and the following months are still posting very high anomalies. Accurately saying the record won't happen this year is trying to predict the difference between a .65 anomaly and a .7 which I don't think is feasible. I completely understand your viewpoint, but I also understand that this is typically what happens (even if the SSTs are higher this year) every year at this point.

Thanks for the reply.

Only year I can think of that did this was 2013, with the big IO & W-PAC warming associated with the large scale lift/Hadley Cell explosion/typhoon activity that preceded the development of the first KW/WWB regime (tropics were already relatively cool with a strong Walker Cell and -AAM, and that began to unravel in autumn of 2013).

How is that going to repeat itself this year when we're already on the other side of the spectrum, so to speak?

[tacoman25]

Sure but the point remains that this happens every year and the following months are still posting very high anomalies.  Accurately saying the record won't happen this year is trying to predict the difference between a .65 anomaly and a .7 which I don't think is feasible.  I completely understand your viewpoint, but I also understand that this is typically what happens (even if the SSTs are higher this year) every year at this point.

 

But again, the huge difference between satellite and surface data sets this year is not typical. The SST-based warmth on the surface data sets is just not feeding into the lower atmosphere.

[The_Global_Warmer]

But again, the huge difference between satellite and surface data sets this year is not typical. The SST-based warmth on the surface data sets is just not feeding into the lower atmosphere.

 

 

Quote

2005 was .66C on GISS and  .65C on NCDC, and  .29C on UAH.

 

When compared to each data sets record years difference wise: Giss: .01C, NCDC: .01C, UAH: .17C.

 

 

 

 

 

2013 was .61 on GISS, .63 in NCDC, and .23C on UAH.

 

Difference:  Giss: .06C, NCDC: .03C, UAH: .19C.

 

2008 was .49C on GISS, .52C on NCDC, -.01C on UAH.

 

Difference: GISS: .18C, NCDC: .14C, UAH: .43C.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005 is a record year on GISS and NCDC but not even close on UAH.

 

2008 was way colder on UAH versus it's warmest year compared to the surface data sets.  A much larger difference then 2014 currently is.

 

Clearly the tropics play a large role in the lower troposphere at large.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think it's just time to rely on satellite data only.  There's too much room for era & too many other factors come into play that can be misleading with the land data: urban effect, tons of missing data, etc. etc. 

 

But the point is satellite data is not even coming close to showing a record August or even remotely close to showing a record warm year. So, why make bogus announcements that are clearly not painting the whole picture & mislead the public.  It's clearly headline attention. 

 

That was the same point that I made with Gavin's curious adjustment taking August 2011 from 0.70 to 0.69 & raising August 2014 raw data from 0.68 to 0.70 making August the hotter.  There's no way that was just pure honest, objective adjusting.  And the disagreement between satellite data & what surface data is conveniently showing is just bogus...no matter who it comes from: Japanese, NASA or anyone else.

 

I'm clearly not a denier of AGW but I'm just sick & tired of the dishonest fudging of data & facts from both sides of those who exaggerate AGW & from those who downplay AGW.

 

GISS has been revised cooler WAY WAY WAY MORE over the last couple of years.

 

So where have you been during that?

 

It has already happened many times this year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I wasn't referring to a small specific period of time.

 

Just in general. 

 

 

You keep saying the fall is going to cool.

 

 

August came in at .70C+ on GISS and .75C+ on NCDC.  September on CFS currently = a .73C+ on GISS. 

 

 

Why not throw out some numbers you think GISS will put up for OND?

 

2013 averaged a .74, .62, .73, .63 for OND good for a .680C+ average on GISS.

 

2014 so far on GISS is averaging a .6525C+ anomaly.  September will likely come in above .70C+.  Definitely not progressively cooler from August.

 

 

 

 

The top plot is 2013 SSTA up to this point.  The middle plot is 2014 so far.  As of the second week of September ssta are running about .10C above the same time in 2013.

 

The bottom plot is all of 2013.  You can see how 2013 plummeted into October before rising back up in November then falling again in December to close out the year.

 

Last year the ONI hovered around -0.3C until falling further at the end of the year.  It was 0.0C last month and it's expected to slowly rise into at least the 0.3-0.7C+ range or higher as the year finishes out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again.  Everyone has different opinions on what max potential is.  But considering 2013 and 2005 both had Septembers reach .74C+ on GISS.

 

2005 had a slightly higher ONI over the summer leading into September but a 0.0C for Sept.  2013 had a -0.2/-0.3C in summer and in Sept.

 

 

Global monthly  sst anomaly for September:

 

 

2005: 0.255C+

2013: 0.285C+

2014: 0.432C+

 

So far 2014 is averaging way above the two other .70C+ years on GISS.  Looking at it now.  It appears 2014 will probably average around 0.400C+ for the month of September ssta wise.  It hasn't cooled off very much.

 

So in that regard I can't see how you can say if it reaches max potential. 

 

 

Like NFLwxman said big kudos to you if you are right about there being a cool down to where GISS doesn't get the record.

 

I just simply don't see how the Earth is going to cool like you think it is.

 

 

Doesn't look like the NPAC is going to cool off very much. 

 

With NA torching hard.

[stadiumwave]

Doesn't look like the NPAC is going to cool off very much. 

 

With NA torching hard.

 

 

 

To get a  better understanding as to what is going on in the 500mb forecast map you keep posting you need to engross yourself in this ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR thread:

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&st=40

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS now between .23-.25c on the dailies. Record September pace continues

[The_Global_Warmer]

To get a  better understanding as to what is going on in the 500mb forecast map you keep posting you need to engross yourself in this ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR thread:

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&st=40

 

To get a better understanding of reality.  Immerse yourself in it.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

 

Quote

 

 

2005 is a record year on GISS and NCDC but not even close on UAH.

 

2008 was way colder on UAH versus it's warmest year compared to the surface data sets.  A much larger difference then 2014 currently is.

 

Clearly the tropics play a large role in the lower troposphere at large.

 

 

Cheque please

[stadiumwave]

To get a better understanding of reality.  Immerse yourself in it.

 

 

 

Oh believe me...I have.  Jet is just relaxing as new harmonic wave progresses. Just as forecasted.

 

BTW...Joe Renken....known as JD & his long-range forecasts are just really, really good.  Follow his blog:

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

 

In the West Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Fung-wong approaching the island of Luzon as it curves Northerly barely missing Taiwan due to being latched into a trough over East Asia.  Y’all know that means Central Missouri will experience a cooler period around the 26^th before another quick ridge develops as evident by the cyclone not making another curve to the Northeast until the 23^rd. Then another trough picks it up.  This will translate to Central Missouri experiencing a slight warm up around the 27^th into the 29^th before another cooler period hits us for October.  My thoughts are still that it will be roughly October 2^nd when that happens. Then zonal flow follows for a moderation of temperatures.

 

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and won’t let go until the 23^rd of September for the Bering Sea Rule.  We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25^th.  This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26^th and 27^th continuing into the beginning of October.  This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over.  Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

 

 

 

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssta have dropped to 0.377C+.  This is the first time in six weeks they have been below 0.40C+.  This is the coolest they have been in 7 weeks.

 

In-spite of that.  They are still the warmest on record for the 3rd week in September by a lot versus all years.

 

.10C over 2013 and .12C over 2005 the warmest Septembers on NCDC and GISS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

I've read through a number of posts suggesting that the closing months of 2014 will see cooler global land and ocean anomalies. I'm not so sure. In recent emergent El Niño cases, the September-December period has had an average anomaly comparable or slightly warmer than the June-August anomaly. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming September-December anomaly winds up in the +0.62°C-+0.67°C range on GISS while not dismissing +0.60°C or +0.70°C figures (average figure for the four months in question). I also suspect that the UAH lower troposphere figures may start to reflect the emergent El Niño toward the latter part of the September-December period. Of course, all this assumes that the emergent El Niño does, in fact, materialize. Needless to say, should such an El Niño develop, 2015 would likely set a new record high anomaly on GISS and NCDC.

[stadiumwave]

I've read through a number of posts suggesting that the closing months of 2014 will see cooler global land and ocean anomalies. I'm not so sure. In recent emergent El Niño cases, the September-December period has had an average anomaly comparable or slightly warmer than the June-August anomaly. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming September-December anomaly winds up in the +0.62°C-+0.67°C range on GISS while not dismissing +0.60°C or +0.70°C figures (average figure for the four months in question). I also suspect that the UAH lower troposphere figures may start to reflect the emergent El Niño toward the latter part of the September-December period. Of course, all this assumes that the emergent El Niño does, in fact, materialize. Needless to say, should such an El Niño develop, 2015 would likely set a new record high anomaly on GISS and NCDC.

Indeed!!

[icebreaker5221]

Can someone please throw me the link to UAH temps table.  I can only seem to find the old broken one atm.

[tacoman25]

 

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see if that low spinning off the west coast the next few days drops those SSTA some.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Will be interesting to see if that low spinning off the west coast the next few days drops those SSTA some.

SSTs are already falling at a steady pace. I think it's a near certainty.

[tacoman25]

I've read through a number of posts suggesting that the closing months of 2014 will see cooler global land and ocean anomalies. I'm not so sure. In recent emergent El Niño cases, the September-December period has had an average anomaly comparable or slightly warmer than the June-August anomaly. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming September-December anomaly winds up in the +0.62°C-+0.67°C range on GISS while not dismissing +0.60°C or +0.70°C figures (average figure for the four months in question). I also suspect that the UAH lower troposphere figures may start to reflect the emergent El Niño toward the latter part of the September-December period. Of course, all this assumes that the emergent El Niño does, in fact, materialize. Needless to say, should such an El Niño develop, 2015 would likely set a new record high anomaly on GISS and NCDC.

 

I understand you are looking at things from a statistical standpoint, Don, but I think it's important to look at the reasoning behind suggestions that we could easily cool.

 

1) There is only weak +ENSO at this point, and it has developed later than many other years that actually had Ninos. Plus, ENSO changes take a few months to kick in, even for surface anomalies.

 

2) The warmth the past few months on the surface data sets has indisputably been driven by very warm SSTA in the Northern Hemisphere. We know these will almost certainly cool over the next few weeks (they already have started to).

 

3) With how elevated the surface anomalies have been the past couple months, it wouldn't take much to see "cooler" anomalies. We could see anomalies above the 10 year average and they could still be cooler than Aug/Sep.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah September should still run very warm on the surface datasets. But the Oct-Dec period will have trouble unless the El Nino can pick itself up off the floor and fight.

[Isotherm]

I understand you are looking at things from a statistical standpoint, Don, but I think it's important to look at the reasoning behind suggestions that we could easily cool.

 

1) There is only weak +ENSO at this point, and it has developed later than many other years that actually had Ninos. Plus, ENSO changes take a few months to kick in, even for surface anomalies.

 

2) The warmth the past few months on the surface data sets has indisputably been driven by very warm SSTA in the Northern Hemisphere. We know these will almost certainly cool over the next few weeks (they already have started to).

 

3) With how elevated the surface anomalies have been the past couple months, it wouldn't take much to see "cooler" anomalies. We could see anomalies above the 10 year average and they could still be cooler than Aug/Sep.

 

 

Couldn't agree more, on all counts.

[chubbs]

I don't see much cooling with El Nino slowly developing and trade winds light. If Wxbell is right September is going to be very warm at the surface.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't see much cooling with El Nino slowly developing and trade winds light. If Wxbell is right September is going to be very warm at the surface.

 

 

I agree...I don't see much cooling coming with perhaps the exception of December being a wildcard. That month can come in cool if we have an expansive snow cover in the NH. But Oct/Nov have been warm in recent years...whether it is an El Nino or not.

[bluewave]

I think that we could approach a tie with the 2010 67 record in the 65-67 range for the annual temperature  on GISS.

 

I calculated where this year would finish on GISS with each September to December 

period since 2005 averaged out with January to August 2014.

 

2013....+66

2012....+65

2011....+61

2010....+64

2009....+65

2008....+63

2007....+62

2006....+66

2005....+67

[ORH_wxman]

I think that we could approach a tie with the 2010 67 record in the 65-67 range for the annual temperature  on GISS.

 

I calculated where this year would finish on GISS with each September to December 

period since 2005 averaged out with January to August 2014.

 

2013....+66

2012....+65

2011....+61

2010....+64

2009....+65

2008....+63

2007....+62

2006....+66

2005....+67

 

 

 

2005 is probably the path...though looking at that year, its not a total cakewalk...it put up some big numbers. We'll probably at least come close to matching 2005's 0.74 anomaly in September...but then it goes 0.77, 0.71, and 0.64 for the final 3 months. December is the wildcard to me. I think we'll stay fairly close to 2005 one way or the other going into December...but that is a month where I could see us putting up a 0.52 or a 0.80...its pretty volatile.

[nflwxman]

2005 is probably the path...though looking at that year, its not a total cakewalk...it put up some big numbers. We'll probably at least come close to matching 2005's 0.74 anomaly in September...but then it goes 0.77, 0.71, and 0.64 for the final 3 months. December is the wildcard to me. I think we'll stay fairly close to 2005 one way or the other going into December...but that is a month where I could see us putting up a 0.52 or a 0.80...its pretty volatile.

 

Yep, December is linked to snowcover and ENSO much more than the months prior.  I can see a low-mid 70s for SON, then December can be a determinate month.  Either way, HadCrut4 and NCDC seem very likely to break their records.  GISS seems like a 60/40 proposition since 2010 was revised to 0.67 in the last update.

[chrisf97212]

I agree...I don't see much cooling coming with perhaps the exception of December being a wildcard. That month can come in cool if we have an expansive snow cover in the NH. But Oct/Nov have been warm in recent years...whether it is an El Nino or not.

 

With the initial warmer NPAC and Nino, I expect an early active storm track quickly dropping temps on the west coast as well as the NPAC.

[nflwxman]

With the initial warmer NPAC and Nino, I expect an early active storm track quickly dropping temps on the west coast as well as the NPAC.

That's probably true.  And it would support a nino-like storm track, but NPAC cooling likely means the ridge is displaced elsewhere (potentially land).  The NPAC will cool.  There is really no question about that, but another place will warm as a result of that ridge displacement.  Also the southern hemisphere SSTs are beginning to increase as we head towards boreal winter (typical behavior).  In the end, it could be a wash as far as anomalies go this fall.

 

Let's hope the GOA warm pool doesn't cool too much.  The mid-atlantic could use that come winter 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah September should still run very warm on the surface datasets. But the Oct-Dec period will have trouble unless the El Nino can pick itself up off the floor and fight.

 

Can you explain your reasoning when considering ssta are .10C+ warmer then 2013?

 

 

 

I wasn't referring to a small specific period of time.

 

Just in general. 

 

 

You keep saying the fall is going to cool.

 

 

August came in at .70C+ on GISS and .75C+ on NCDC.  September on CFS currently = a .73C+ on GISS. 

 

 

Why not throw out some numbers you think GISS will put up for OND?

 

2013 averaged a .74, .62, .73, .63 for OND good for a .680C+ average on GISS.

 

2014 so far on GISS is averaging a .6525C+ anomaly.  September will likely come in above .70C+.  Definitely not progressively cooler from August.

 

 

 

 

The top plot is 2013 SSTA up to this point.  The middle plot is 2014 so far.  As of the second week of September ssta are running about .10C above the same time in 2013.

 

The bottom plot is all of 2013.  You can see how 2013 plummeted into October before rising back up in November then falling again in December to close out the year.

 

Last year the ONI hovered around -0.3C until falling further at the end of the year.  It was 0.0C last month and it's expected to slowly rise into at least the 0.3-0.7C+ range or higher as the year finishes out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again.  Everyone has different opinions on what max potential is.  But considering 2013 and 2005 both had Septembers reach .74C+ on GISS.

 

2005 had a slightly higher ONI over the summer leading into September but a 0.0C for Sept.  2013 had a -0.2/-0.3C in summer and in Sept.

 

 

Global monthly  sst anomaly for September:

 

 

2005: 0.255C+

2013: 0.285C+

2014: 0.432C+

 

So far 2014 is averaging way above the two other .70C+ years on GISS.  Looking at it now.  It appears 2014 will probably average around 0.400C+ for the month of September ssta wise.  It hasn't cooled off very much.

 

So in that regard I can't see how you can say if it reaches max potential. 

 

 

Like NFLwxman said big kudos to you if you are right about there being a cool down to where GISS doesn't get the record.

 

I just simply don't see how the Earth is going to cool like you think it is.