2014 Global Temperatures

[nflwxman]

An important point to remember is that the lower troposphere temperature datasets such as RSS and UAH utilize data above the oceans while the surface temperature datasets like GISS actually incorporate sea surface temperatures into the final numbers. So it's no surprise that the highly anomalous warm water across the NPAC and NATL has contributed to the GISS record. That excessive warmth in the SST's has not been realized in the lower troposphere as of yet. And as a number of us have discussed, the surface datasets are liable to decline in the coming months as the mean jet shifts equatorward and begins to upwell colder waters in the NPAC / NATL, and without forcing from a mod/strong El Nino, the peak on GISS is probably right now. RSS and UAH may not peak until mid or late winter depending upon the eventual timing / magnitude of the peak of this weak-mod el nino event. Their peak is liable to be lower than the surface temperature datasets due to the lesser heat release from a weaker ENSO event.

I disagree.  The southern hemisphere and tropics should both warm in response to hadley cell retreat for boreal winter.  This is in isolation to the ENSO heating event that inevitably will occur over the 6 weeks.  I would be surprised if September came in cooler than August. 

 

If you look at the NPAC in a vacuum, I agree with you, but NPAC cooling inevitably has other impacts.

If the NPAC cools, that means the ridge is more liable to shift at least partially over land.  Being that land heats faster than water will cool given the heat carry capacity,  I expect the high anomalies to continue through November (with a potential December drop off) before the thermal release of the nino event helps lift us back up in the heart of winter.  I see a likely outcome of all surface datasets tying or exceeding their global temperature record for the aforementioned reasons (NCDC and HADCRUT are extremely likely to).

 

It certainly was not a coincidence that the SON period for 2013 was so warm despite the fact that SSTs in the NPAC tanked (but remained relatively warm) in the fall.  The ridging shifted and landmasses were particularly warm.  There is no reason to believe this will be any different than last year in that sense.

 

[Jonger]

I wasn't sure if this was posted yet or not.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/are-record-ocean-surface-temperatures-due-to-record-low-wind-speeds/#comments

 

 

 

Are Record Ocean Surface Temperatures Due to Record Low Wind Speeds?

 

[nflwxman]

I wasn't sure if this was posted yet or not.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/are-record-ocean-surface-temperatures-due-to-record-low-wind-speeds/#comments

 

 

 

Are Record Ocean Surface Temperatures Due to Record Low Wind Speeds?

 

That's a great post by roy spencer, but I think he's a bit off target.

 

Wind speeds can be lower on continental landmasses when the jet stream is very meridonal and "stuck."  As you know, frontal passages give landmasses their best wind speeds on a seasonal basis.  I suspect the record low wind speeds are due to the decreasing gradient between the poles and equator, potentially with the help of the expanding hadley cells.  

 

It would be interesting to see that same analysis for just the southern hemisphere.

[stadiumwave]

The maps either may be calculated slightly differently or they are more updated than the text which is only updated once per month. The difference between those numbers is completely meaningless though...it is so small. 0.02C is smaller than the margin of error for GISS.

 

 

In reality...yes I know that; however, it is the difference between a big headline & no headline.

[Jonger]

That's a great post by roy spencer, but I think he's a bit off target.

 

Wind speeds can be lower on continental landmasses when the jet stream is very meridonal and "stuck."  As you know, frontal passages give landmasses their best wind speeds on a seasonal basis.  I suspect the record low wind speeds are due to the decreasing gradient between the poles and equator, potentially with the help of the expanding hadley cells.  

 

It would be interesting to see that same analysis for just the southern hemisphere.

 

Whatever the cause, it's an actual phenomenon. I also wonder if this will slow deep ocean heat uptake, considering the main mechanism for mixing is slowing down.

[stadiumwave]

The only year 2014 will be close to for SOND is 2005 you can take that to the bank. 

 

So far 2014 has been completely driven by the oceans and the poles.

 

We have never had a non ENSO driven year this warm yet. 

 

 

The largest cold anomaly in 2014 on Earth is over land.  Right in our backyard centered over North America.

 

When the pattern flips.  Which it is in the process of doing over North America the land anomalies are going to swing much more than the ocean.

 

Beyond that an even larger region of the NPAC is expected to continue to warm sst wise plus increasing warmth from ENSO, the Indian Ocean, and South Central NATL.

 

On top of that the NPAC hasn't cooled off much at all so far.

 

 

 

 

 

It's just the jet relaxing before a new 500mb pattern occurs.  It's too early to know what that will be as of yet.

 

[ORH_wxman]

In reality...yes I know that; however, it is the difference between a big headline & no headline.

 

 

Well the "headlines" are mainly for trivial purposes in the end...and for those who want to press an agenda, they are nice too. The warmest year on record actually has changed a few times in the past couple years on GISS...it flipflops between 2005 and 2010...with 2010 being a bit more frequent as warmest. Warmest months probably change a bit more if they are close.  

 

But it doesn't change the statistical analysis of the temperature record. If we warm, for example, at a paltry rate of like 0.05C per decade, we should be setting a new annual temperature record a couple times per decade. The magnitude of the warming is really what matters.

[chubbs]

An important point to remember is that the lower troposphere temperature datasets such as RSS and UAH utilize data above the oceans while the surface temperature datasets like GISS actually incorporate sea surface temperatures into the final numbers. So it's no surprise that the highly anomalous warm water across the NPAC and NATL has contributed to the GISS record. That excessive warmth in the SST's has not been realized in the lower troposphere as of yet. And as a number of us have discussed, the surface datasets are liable to decline in the coming months as the mean jet shifts equatorward and begins to upwell colder waters in the NPAC / NATL, and without forcing from a mod/strong El Nino, the peak on GISS is probably right now. RSS and UAH may not peak until mid or late winter depending upon the eventual timing / magnitude of the peak of this weak-mod el nino event. Their peak is liable to be lower than the surface temperature datasets due to the lesser heat release from a weaker ENSO event.

 

I expect continued warming on a running 12-month average basis until this ENSO cycle peaks. The northern oceans aren't the only regions that are warm and monthly anomalies are always shifting from one region to another. 

[Jonger]

I expect continued warming on a running 12-month average basis until this ENSO cycle peaks. The northern oceans aren't the only region that is warm and monthly anomalies are always shifting from one region to another. 

 

True, but northern hemisphere anomalies drop every year like clockwork around now... and just like clockwork, they are beginning to fall. 

 

PS: Keep that big blob off the pacific coast, I will be just find heading into winter with that there.

[chrisf97212]

I suspect the actual outcomes may have to do with the ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is not sufficiently understood. As the oceans store vast amounts of energy, as stronger El Niños develop, it's plausible that the warming would show up first on the land-ocean surface data rather than the lower atmosphere. Following the peak of an El Niño, the peak in lower tropospheric temperatures might occur a little after land-surface data following an ENSO peak. The two recent super El Niño events may hint at such an outcome:

 

1982-83:

ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 began warming in March 1982. UAH bottomed out in March 1982 (-0.36°C) but fell back to (-0.35°C in October). GISS had a clear bottom in March 1982.

 

ENSO Region 1+2 peaked in December 1982 and Region 3.4 peaked in January 1983. UAH peaked in March 1983 and GISS peaked in January 1983.

 

1997-98

ENSO Region 1+2 began warming in April 1996 and Region 3.4 began warming in October 1995. UAH bottomed out in April 1997. GISS bottomed out in September 1996.

 

ENSO Region 1+2 peaked in August 1997 and Region 3.4 peaked in December 1997. UAH peaked in April 1998 while GISS peaked in February 1998.

 

I realize that there were some fluctuations, as ENSO Region warming was not in a straight-line fashion, but the experience with the super El Niños hints that such events may create outcomes that differ from the theory.

 

I haven't found any papers that try to address the differences in warming between what the theory suggests and what has occurred. Nevertheless, the experience with the super El Niños hints that ocean-atmosphere coupling may provide an explanation and perhaps the theory deals with oversimplified assumptions that are negated by such coupling.

Thanks for the response Don.

[chubbs]

Whatever the cause, it's an actual phenomenon. I also wonder if this will slow deep ocean heat uptake, considering the main mechanism for mixing is slowing down.

 

In general lighter winds should slow down ocean heat uptake and mixing into the atmosphere but would allow the surface to warm. It depends though on where these wind field changes are occurring. Will be interesting to look at all the data with the benefit of hindsight.

[tacoman25]

The only year 2014 will be close to for SOND is 2005 you can take that to the bank. 

 

So far 2014 has been completely driven by the oceans and the poles.

 

We have never had a non ENSO driven year this warm yet. 

 

 

The largest cold anomaly in 2014 on Earth is over land.  Right in our backyard centered over North America.

 

When the pattern flips.  Which it is in the process of doing over North America the land anomalies are going to swing much more than the ocean.

 

Beyond that an even larger region of the NPAC is expected to continue to warm sst wise plus increasing warmth from ENSO, the Indian Ocean, and South Central NATL.

 

On top of that the NPAC hasn't cooled off much at all so far.

 

 

 

I have serious doubts about this.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I have serious doubts about this.

Yeah, going to be hard to warm the N-PAC anoms in any winter, let alone a Niño which favors troughing out there.

[tacoman25]

An important point to remember is that the lower troposphere temperature datasets such as RSS and UAH utilize data above the oceans while the surface temperature datasets like GISS actually incorporate sea surface temperatures into the final numbers. So it's no surprise that the highly anomalous warm water across the NPAC and NATL has contributed to the GISS record. That excessive warmth in the SST's has not been realized in the lower troposphere as of yet. And as a number of us have discussed, the surface datasets are liable to decline in the coming months as the mean jet shifts equatorward and begins to upwell colder waters in the NPAC / NATL, and without forcing from a mod/strong El Nino, the peak on GISS is probably right now. RSS and UAH may not peak until mid or late winter depending upon the eventual timing / magnitude of the peak of this weak-mod el nino event. Their peak is liable to be lower than the surface temperature datasets due to the lesser heat release from a weaker ENSO event.

 

100% agree. The anomalies this summer have been at least 80% driven by NH SSTAs. Those have an immediate effect on GISS, etc, surface anomalies, while ENSO takes more time (right now we're looking at a very weak +ENSO event anyway). There is a good likelihood those NH SSTs will cool before any ENSO warming kicks in. And SH SSTA's tend to run much cooler than NH, even in SH summer.

 

This year, I think there is a good chance Oct/Nov come in cooler for the surface data sets than Aug/Sep. Obviously, what happens over land will definitely play a role, but lately that has tended to even out more than the oceans.

[StudentOfClimatology]

In general lighter winds should slow down ocean heat uptake and mixing into the atmosphere but would allow the surface to warm. It depends though on where these wind field changes are occurring. Will be interesting to look at all the data with the benefit of hindsight.

Well, broad, slow Hadley Cells would be the main culprit for changes like this. Again, this has been ongoing since January 2013. Question is whether or not these Hadley Cell changes are a feedback to AGW, or a natural resonance of some sort.

[tacoman25]

I wasn't sure if this was posted yet or not.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/are-record-ocean-surface-temperatures-due-to-record-low-wind-speeds/#comments

 

 

 

Are Record Ocean Surface Temperatures Due to Record Low Wind Speeds?

 

 

Seems pretty obvious the two are related. Several of us have been pointing out for awhile that the NH pattern has been very stagant, and that's been the main reason NH SSTA have reached the level they have over the past year. Obviously, AGW plays an underlying role, but without the unusually low wind speeds over the past 12+ months, there is no way SSTA would have been able to warm that much.

[GaWx]

I wasn't sure if this was posted yet or not.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/are-record-ocean-surface-temperatures-due-to-record-low-wind-speeds/#comments

 

 

 

Are Record Ocean Surface Temperatures Due to Record Low Wind Speeds?

 

Very interesting. As mentioned, lighter winds favor warmer SST's. Also, they favor greater diurnal variations in SST's. I wonder how the greater diurnal variations, themselves, could be affecting SST comparisons to the past. Are the record low winds due to global warming as I think nflwxman may be wondering or something else? If it is from something else, there'd be a good chance of it rising back later due to it likely being due to something cyclical as per Spencer. I wonder if it could somehow be related to the start of the solar grand minimum. Any chance for that?

[nflwxman]

Way too early to make a call like that.

Well, I'm ready to make that call qualitatively.  However, it will take years before the "statistically significant" end of the hiatus.  I still think that may not be until 2016-2017 or so.  

 

I like to use anologs to calculate global temperature for the rest of the year.  2006 appears to be a decent one as TSI was about the same as current and ENSO was generally on the same track.  2006 ended the last 4 months at 67 on GISS.  If you apply a warming rate of 0.015/yr that would give you about a 78.  I'd guess the next 4 months will end up averaging in the mid 70s on GISS due to a bit later start for the nino though.  Of course the nino could just not happen, in which case, 2006 would not be a great analog anymore.

[nflwxman]

Very interesting. As mentioned, lighter winds favor warmer SST's. Also, they favor greater diurnal variations in SST's. I wonder how the greater diurnal variations, themselves, could be affecting SST comparisons to the past. Are the record low winds due to global warming as I think nflwxman may be wondering or something else? If it is from something else, there'd be a good chance of it rising back later due to it likely being due to something cyclical as per Spencer. I wonder if it could somehow be related to the start of the solar grand minimum. Any chance for that?

It's probably a bit early to attribute the lower winds to AGW at this point.  In theory, expanding hadley cells in the N-hemisphere could be a feedback from AGW.  This can cause a more meridonal/wobbly jet stream.  You may have noticed in an anecdotal manner that we have been getting "stuck" in patterns for longer periods of time the last couple of years.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Well, I'm ready to make that call qualitatively. However, it will take years before the "statistically significant" end of the hiatus. I still think that may not be until 2016-2017 or so.

I like to use anologs to calculate global temperature for the rest of the year. 2006 appears to be a decent one as TSI was about the same as current and ENSO was generally on the same track. 2006 ended the last 4 months at 67 on GISS. If you apply a warming rate of 0.015/yr that would give you about a 78. I'd guess the next 4 months will end up averaging in the mid 70s on GISS due to a bit later start for the nino though.

I highly doubt Oct-Dec can average warmer than 0.65, though September should hit 0.68-0.72. We'll see, though.

We're losing the SSTs that drove the surface warmth all summer, and statistical guidance peaks ENSO at about 0.7-0.8. Unless big warmth can pop up somewhere else, there's no mechanism that'll give you +0.75 readings in Oct-Dec.

Also, TSI is much higher now vs 2006-07, though we're coming down off of peak. The 2006-07 year was essentially in the big solar minimum:

[nflwxman]

Of course it's not exact.  No analog ever is, but it's best to use something with in 10 years clearly. 

 

I just outlined above what mechanism is needed to maintain higher anomalies.  Anomalies are representation of averages, SSTs cool pretty much every year around this time.  2013 ended warm as heck.  The NPAC heat eroded this time last year and we all freaked out since the ridging was creeping off the ocean basin.  In reality though, when NPAC anomalies eroded last year it just shifted the ridge and anomalies elsewhere. I'm not sure what else you need.  This NPAC cooling (that hasn't happened yet, by the way) doesn't just happen in a vacuum, it has downstream consequences.

 

But good luck.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Of course it's not exact. No analog ever is, but it's best to use something with in 10 years clearly.

I just outlined above what mechanism is needed to maintain higher anomalies. Anomalies are representation of averages, SSTs cool pretty much every year around this time. 2013 ended warm as heck. The NPAC heat eroded this time last year and we all freaked out since the ridging was creeping off the ocean basin. In reality though, when NPAC anomalies eroded last year it just shifted the ridge and anomalies elsewhere. I'm not sure what else you need. This NPAC cooling (that hasn't happened yet, by the way) doesn't just happen in a vacuum, it has downstream consequences.

But good luck.

Okay, we'll have to disagree on this. My take on this is, unlike last year, the warmth is solely dependent on SSTs (l2013 had a arge warming in IO/W-PAC in 2013 along with a generally strong PV and warm tropical upper troposphere as the AAM fell).

The satellites and surface data are diverging this year because the surface SSTs are driving the warmth. The tropics are not, and are a already in a full Niño mode of circulation (Weak Walker Cell, high AAM).

[chrisf97212]

Of course it's not exact.  No analog ever is, but it's best to use something with in 10 years clearly. 

 

I just outlined above what mechanism is needed to maintain higher anomalies.  Anomalies are representation of averages, SSTs cool pretty much every year around this time.  2013 ended warm as heck.  The NPAC heat eroded this time last year and we all freaked out since the ridging was creeping off the ocean basin.  In reality though, when NPAC anomalies eroded last year it just shifted the ridge and anomalies elsewhere. I'm not sure what else you need.  This NPAC cooling (that hasn't happened yet, by the way) doesn't just happen in a vacuum, it has downstream consequences.

 

But good luck.

 

I remember a monstrous record breaking ridge over the NPAC last autumn.

[Jonger]

I remember a monstrous record breaking ridge over the NPAC last autumn.

 

The general storminess will mix the warm surface temps under, just watch those start popping up in the coming weeks.

[Jonger]

Okay, we'll have to disagree on this. My take on this is, unlike last year, the warmth is solely dependent on SSTs (l2013 had a arge warming in IO/W-PAC in 2013 along with a generally strong PV and warm tropical upper troposphere as the AAM fell).

The satellites and surface data are diverging this year because the surface SSTs are driving the warmth. The tropics are not, and are a already in a full Niño mode of circulation (Weak Walker Cell, high AAM).

 

I don't think this surface warmth can lead to much more than temporary warm conditions, the depth of the warm anomaly is nowhere near a super el nino... 

[HailMan06]

Whatever the cause, it's an actual phenomenon. I also wonder if this will slow deep ocean heat uptake, considering the main mechanism for mixing is slowing down.

That sounds a lot like the IPO recent studies have theorized are a major contributor to the multidecadal global temp fluctuatons.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS dailies back up over 0.20C+ things getting nasty again!

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Joe Bastardi knows exactly which data sets are what.

 

It's called being a fraud, liar, and manipulator with no integrity.

[GaWx]

Joe Bastardi knows exactly which data sets are what.

 

It's called being a fraud, liar, and manipulator with no integrity.

I, myself, don't trust JB when it comes to what maps/graphs he decides to show and how he presents them due to a perception that he's too biased. At the same time, is it possible that the NOAA CFS based global temp graphs he's shown that suggest cooling over the last couple of years could be closer to reality than the data consensus? I have my doubts but do still wonder.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I, myself, don't trust JB when it comes to what maps/graphs he decides to show and how he presents them due to a perception that he's too biased. At the same time, is it possible that the NOAA CFS based global temp graphs he's shown that suggest cooling over the last couple of years could be closer to reality than the data consensus? I have my doubts but do still wonder.

 

No.  Both(relatively) global temp sets(UAH and GISS) say otherwise.  Both of them are backed by NCDC, Hadley, and RSS, and the Berkley teams data.

 

Plus, Sea level rise, OHC, and SSTA.

 

 

But the main thing about Bastardi is that he is very intelligent.  He doesn't say ignorant or inaccurate things because of actual ignorance or lack of understanding.