2014 Global Temperatures

[nflwxman]

UAH accuses RSS of overcorrecting for orbital drift, while RSS also accuses UAH of various faulty equations and assumptions on sensor degradation. I spoke with some folks from RSS back in 2013 and they were adamant that UAH is wrong. Though Dr. Spencer has said the same thing in the past about RSS, so who knows

My guess is the truth lies somewhere in between. Dr. Spencer & Christy are working on version 6 of UAH, which they say will cool the post-1998 data closer to RSS, though

If I get the chance, I'll ask them if they have an ETA

Yeah, they've delayed the release of V6 for a while now. They state it won't affect the long term trend, however.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah, they've delayed the release of V6 for a while now. They state it won't affect the long term trend, however.

Apparently it's a very detailed, high-resolution revision in the fundamentals of their processing method, and it's taking them a lot longer to complete than they expected. These interpolations are not easy when you have to correct for external variables, but if done correctly, it's by far the best way to measure global temperature.

If what Dr. Spencer has said turns out to be true, there will probably be more warming in the new dataset between 1990 and 2001, with less warming afterwards, which would fall more in line with RSS.

[nflwxman]

I guess the next question once we gain more confidence in the LTS measurements is why is the surface warming up quicker than the lower troposphere? It's clearly not UHI.

[AvantHiatus]

I guess the next question once we gain more confidence in the LTS measurements is why is the surface warming up quicker than the lower troposphere? It's clearly not UHI.

Something is preventing the heat from reaching the lower troposphere. I think land heat escapes to the atmosphere faster through radiational cooling. The warmest anomalies are over the water at the moment. Another empirical illusion to overcome.

 

The surface is where we live, albeit troposphere temps are important for dictating upper-level patterns.

[ORH_wxman]

Something is preventing the heat from reaching the lower troposphere. I think land heat escapes to the atmosphere faster through radiational cooling. The warmest anomalies are over the water at the moment. Another empirical illusion to overcome.

 

The surface is where we live, albeit troposphere temps are important for dictating upper-level patterns.

 

If this was true, then land sfc temps would be lower and the lower troposphere would be warmer. This is the opposite of what is measured.

[AvantHiatus]

If this was true, then land sfc temps would be lower and the lower troposphere would be warmer. This is the opposite of what is measured.

Wasn't sure if it was true, just making an effort to figure this out as it needs to be explained. Perhaps just forget about the radiational cooling bit. It is definitely related to the warmest anomalies occuring over water.

 

Is it possible for GISS and other surface datasets to measure the 10m air temp over the global ocean?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Something is preventing the heat from reaching the lower troposphere. I think land heat escapes to the atmosphere faster through radiational cooling. The warmest anomalies are over the water at the moment. Another empirical illusion to overcome.

The surface is where we live, albeit troposphere temps are important for dictating upper-level patterns.

If you're referring to the divergence in 2014, it's that surface datasets use SSTAs over the oceans to substitute for station measurements, in large part. The warm high latitude SSTs are the reason the surface datasets are running so warm, not ENSO.

ENSO is a larger factor in the satellite data because those warm tropical SSTs evaporate into the Hadley Cells/ITCZ, where the latent heat is then released in large quantities in the troposohere upon condensation (convection is the largest form of latent heat release).

You don't have those dynamics operating as much at the horse latitudes, where sinking/stable air dominates. The extreme broad/poleward nature of the Hadley Cells this year has resulted in warm high latitude SSTs and sinking air...the dry air aloft observed by CERES gives this away.

[AvantHiatus]

If you're referring to the divergence in 2014, it's that surface datasets use SSTAs over the oceans to substitute for station measurements, in large part. The warm high latitude SSTs are the reason the surface datasets are running so warm, not ENSO.

ENSO is a larger factor in the satellite data because those warm tropical SSTs evaporate into the Hadley Cells/ITCZ, where the latent heat is then released in large quantities in the troposohere upon condensation (convection is the largest form of latent heat release).

You don't have those dynamics operating as much at the horse latitudes, where sinking/stable air dominates. The extreme broad/poleward nature of the Hadley Cells this year has resulted in warm high latitude SSTs and sinking air...the dry air aloft observed by CERES gives this away.

Thank you for answering my questions. So the lack of troposphere heat is due to the absence of condensation in the tropics and sub-tropical areas of elevated SST? This would be required to transport the heat from the ocean surface.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Thank you for answering my questions. So the lack of troposphere heat is due to the absence of condensation in the tropics? This would be required to transport the heat from the ocean surface.

The deep tropics are behaving normally.

It's more due to excessive amounts of dry/stable air over the NH as a result of the extremely broad, poleward-oriented Hadley Cells. Those SSTs warmed as a result of the dry, sinking air, and thus, this retained heat has not really gone anywhere except to warm the near-surface airmass via conduction. So this heat is being maximized at/near the surface.

The ENSO/tropical SSTs are located under a zone of net lift/divergence (ITCZ between the Hadley Cells) so that heat is released and carried around both Hemispheres via the Hadley Cells very easily. The tropical circulations are a latent-heat driven machine.

You don't have that dynamic over the high latitudes.

[nflwxman]

Weatherbell dailies are still hovering around 0.3 C.  This has been the case for about 2 weeks now.  Quite an impressive warm up.

 

Monthly is around 0.3 as well.  While I expect a drop in the next few days, this month is starting extremely warm at the surface if the CFSv2 is to be believed.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yes, surface datasets go through a ton of adjustments and revisions...something that should be kept in mind when people point out any revisions made to satellite data.

 

GISS switched their entire SST dataset in January 2013 (with no explanation too) which lowered the anomalies for 2011 and 2012 by several hundreths and raised many anomalies in the 1980s/1990s...and since that time of the switch, I have noticed that GISS's initial readings have been consistently revised downward months later. If UAH did that, I bet some here would throw a tantrum. The two datasets measure different things as well which has been pointed out several times.

 

 

If GISS revised upwards some would throw a tantrum.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We will probably see a new record at the surface if the CFS correlation holds for this month. UAH measures the LT. Two different things.

 

 

4th day into the month and CFS is at .302C+ for the month.  A giss equivalent of .85C+ and September has typically warmed anomaly wise recently as the month goes on.

 

 

ENSO sub-surface continues to warm with large depth as well to the warming.

 

 

 

[chubbs]

UAH accuses RSS of overcorrecting for orbital drift, while RSS also accuses UAH of various faulty equations and assumptions on sensor degradation. I spoke with some folks from RSS back in 2013 and they were adamant that UAH is wrong. Though Dr. Spencer has said the same thing in the past about RSS, so who knows

My guess is the truth lies somewhere in between. Dr. Spencer & Christy are working on version 6 of UAH, which they say will cool the post-1998 data closer to RSS, though

If I get the chance, I'll ask them if they have an ETA

It is interesting to look at the difference between RSS and UAH over the past 15 years. There is steady drift over the entire period. Since 2009, there has also been cyclic behavior where the two series are alternatively warmer and cooler relative to each other. Certainly doesn't look like random fluctuation.

[tacoman25]

That's pretty speculative.  I'm not sure there would be a tantrum here.  I'd argue direct measurements in the place humans inhabit will always be the way to go, but the reason why tacoman brings this up is because all the surface datasets are running quite warm.  As many have pointed out, UAH/RSS are measuring different entities than the surface.  It can take months for ocean heat to make it's fingerprints known in lower troposphere relative to the surface (at Dr. Spencer pointed out above).  UAH will become warm later this year.

 

Since UAH and RSS are proxy measurements that use a single piece of scanning remote sensing equipment, it's fair to be critical of the dataset.  If their is orbital drift on the device, it can impact a trend pretty starkly.  Contrast that to our global network of thermometers, even if you have several hundred in error, it barely makes a dent in a long term trend.  Repetition in that way helps give many in the scientific community confidence even if the spatial coverage is lacking.

 

Regadless, this is why we have many datasets. Just because one doesn't match the other does not mean that one is in error as tacoman is suggesting.

 

1. First bolded part: false assumption. I have always been happy to point out the reasons for differences in surface and LT data. Do you also assume that Phillip brought up the satellite stuff just because they are running much cooler? After all, that's what I was responding to - he brought it up.

 

2. Second bolded part: Seriously...did you even read what I wrote? I was NOT suggesting one was in error over the other. Please read again. 

 

I would appreciate it if you would make an effort to actually comprehend the points I make, instead of just blindly assuming what I mean because of the camp you put me in. This isn't the first time you have misinterpreted or completely missed what I was saying.

[tacoman25]

I guess the next question once we gain more confidence in the LTS measurements is why is the surface warming up quicker than the lower troposphere? It's clearly not UHI.

 

See my post on previous page about how NH ssta have a much greater effect on surface anomalies than LT. That seems to be what is driving the warmth at the surface data sets at the moment.

[tacoman25]

Something is preventing the heat from reaching the lower troposphere. I think land heat escapes to the atmosphere faster through radiational cooling. The warmest anomalies are over the water at the moment. Another empirical illusion to overcome.

 

The surface is where we live, albeit troposphere temps are important for dictating upper-level patterns.

 

And yet, we don't live on the water...

[The_Global_Warmer]

It is interesting to look at the difference between RSS and UAH over the past 15 years. There is steady drift over the entire period. Since 2009, there has also been cyclic behavior where the two series are alternatively warmer and cooler relative to each other. Certainly doesn't look like random fluctuation.

 

 

Pretty much confirms the thought that RSS is running to cool.

 

It could also have somewhat to do with the data at the poles being less for RSS but it's not that much less.

[The_Global_Warmer]

After the surface temp records get smashed this year. Things are gearing up for UAH to break it's record in 2014 as well as all of the surface data sets breaking their 2014 records. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAWX had some excellent analysis of the current ENSO situation. 

 

 

GaWx, on 04 Sept 2014 - 12:37 PM, said:

 

 

 If the TAO buoy based graphic is reflecting reality, there has been pretty substantial warming in 3.4 over the last few days. If this doesn't reverse quickly and if NOAA goes pretty much with TAO's warming, the Monday weekly will likely be even warmer than the prior week's +0.4. By the way, the early August Euro weeklies predicted the 3.4 warming of the last couple of weeks quite well.

 This recent warming is certainly consistent with the current 32 day string of SOI's (7 days longer than the one from early in 2014). The strongest warming was in late August, which is consistent with a rather common couple of weeks lag after a downturn in the SOI around this time of year. There is a chance that the 32 day -SOI string will be broken tomorrow. It will be close. If it stops at 32 days, how does that stack up with other long -SOI strings during the last half of the year with an oncoming Nino (since 1991-2)?

 

Oncoming Nino: # days -SOI

'09: 28 days

'06: 16

'04: 19

'02: 31

'97: 72

'94: 34

'91: 31

 

 So, the only Nino since 1991-2 that had a significantly longer longest -SOI string late in the oncoming year was the super Nino of 1997-98, which had a 72 day string.

 

 In contrast, the late 2012 Nino false alarm had only a 13 day string for its longest. 

 

 What were the longest non-Nino last half of year -SOI strings since 1991?

 

Non-Nino: # days -SOI

'92: 39

'93: 38

'01: 22

 

 So, the Nino -SOI strings tell me that an oncoming Nino is quite likely. However, at the same time, the 1992 and 1993 strings tell me to still be wary of another false alarm like 2012.

 

 The August 2014 SOI came in at -10.1. I counted 26 of 36 Augusts (72%) with SOI of -7 or lower ended up preceding (or were already within) a Nino. So, August 2012's -10.1 tells me El Nino is quite likely about to start.

[AvantHiatus]

And yet, we don't live on the water...

Come visit and I'll show you the effects of high SSTA. This would include storm-related damages, coastal flooding, and SLR from thermal expansion.

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/

[tacoman25]

After the surface temp records get smashed this year. Things are gearing up for UAH to break it's record in 2014 as well as all of the surface data sets breaking their 2014 records. 

 

No way UAH sets a record this year. You mean 2015? If so, way too far out to speculate. We don't even have a Nino yet.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Pretty much confirms the thought that RSS is running to cool.

It could also have somewhat to do with the data at the poles being less for RSS but it's not that much less.

What? Both UAH and RSS share nearly identical trends from 1979-present. The "shape" of the trend is the only difference.

The new Version-6 UAH will not feature a significant change in the overall trend line from 1979-present. However, as has been confirmed by Dr. Spencer, the post-1998 trend-line will look more like RSS, with downward adjustment predominating after 2001.

[tacoman25]

Come visit and I'll show you the effects of high SSTA.

 

Yeah, I see all that boiling water is clearly warming the air in your neck of the woods.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Come visit and I'll show you the effects of high SSTA.

 

 

You can just reference the surface data sets about to pummel any ENSO neutral year in their records as well as break their all time records going back 120-140 years.

 

Or UAH beating 2013 as it's warmest neutral ENSO year.

 

What is even crazier is that 2013 was as close to a weak NINA year as it gets.

 

2014 started out with three months of weak Nina ONI status. we haven't even gone above a month of 0.1C.

 

What happens when we go 8-10 months of 0.5C to 1.5C?

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

What? Both UAH and RSS share nearly identical trends from 1979-present. The "shape" of the trend is the only difference.

The new Version-6 UAH will not feature a significant change in the overall trend line from 1979-present. However, as has been confirmed by Dr. Spencer, the post-1998 trend-line will look more like RSS, with downward adjustment predominating after 2001.

 

Didn't Spencer and Christy say RSS has a cool bias?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Didn't Spencer and Christy say RSS has a cool bias?

Yes, but they were referring to the period from 1998-present.

The upcoming UAH update could close the gap between them significantly, based on the latest information.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No way UAH sets a record this year. You mean 2015? If so, way too far out to speculate. We don't even have a Nino yet.

 

Yes I meant 2015.

 

I don't think we need a big nino to make this happen.

 

Even with temporary nina conditions or a prolonged negative neutral UAH has set the 4th and 5th warmest on record with 2013 and 2014. 

 

Even half a year with a weak nino would likely push that year into the .35C+ range on UAH. 

 

 

 

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 20 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009

2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190

2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031

2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020

2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057

2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029

2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103

2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001

2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092

2014 5 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175

2014 6 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.510

2014 7 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.451

2014 8 +0.199 +0.244 +0.154 +0.060

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

TAO shows an expanding area of 2C+ over the ENSO 1+2 region about to surface.

 

It also shows the region of deeper sub surface expanding it's 3C+ range very fast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

It's amazing that UAH has only gotten within 0.10 of 1998.

[nflwxman]

1. First bolded part: false assumption. I have always been happy to point out the reasons for differences in surface and LT data. Do you also assume that Phillip brought up the satellite stuff just because they are running much cooler? After all, that's what I was responding to - he brought it up.

 

2. Second bolded part: Seriously...did you even read what I wrote? I was NOT suggesting one was in error over the other. Please read again. 

 

I would appreciate it if you would make an effort to actually comprehend the points I make, instead of just blindly assuming what I mean because of the camp you put me in. This isn't the first time you have misinterpreted or completely missed what I was saying.

 

My apologies if I misunderstood you.  We can disagree and stay civil.

 

Surface temperatures have their own problems.  Measurement coverage in particular.  No doubt about that.  Have you read much about the hybrid satellite/surface method in Cowtan and Way?  I hope the big 3 (Hadley, NASA, and JMA) move towards something like that in the future.  The important thing is, in the multi-decadal sense, that all the trends match up; and they generally do.

[nflwxman]

You can just reference the surface data sets about to pummel any ENSO neutral year in their records as well as break their all time records going back 120-140 years.

 

Or UAH beating 2013 as it's warmest neutral ENSO year.

 

What is even crazier is that 2013 was as close to a weak NINA year as it gets.

 

2014 started out with three months of weak Nina ONI status. we haven't even gone above a month of 0.1C.

 

What happens when we go 8-10 months of 0.5C to 1.5C?

 

 

 

 

 

That is the point I've been making here pretty nonestop since 2011.  Wait until a true stretch of ENSO positive before crapping all over the long term multi-decadal models.  2009-2010 was ENSO positive for all of about 11 or 12 months and sandwiched by moderate/strong ninas.  I know people are getting sick of me harping about ENSO, but there is a lot of research that suggests the PDO's true effect on climate is dependent almost entirely with trade winds that impact ENSO magnitude and frequency on a decadal time scale.

 

While dynamical ENSO models are generally poor in the cross seasonal range, I find it interesting how the CFS and Euro are show a pretty consistent weak/moderate nino carrying into next summer.  That would be a telling test to see if we can have a 12+ month period of Nino or Nino like conditions.  We have not accomplished this feat in 10 years.