2014 Global Temperatures

[StudentOfClimatology]

On the money graph. A prime example of why we should be taking 10 year trends as indicative of the magnitude of AGW.

I assume you meant to say "shouldn't"?

[nflwxman]

I assume you meant to say "shouldn't"?

Yes Thanks.  Context below on the record high SSTs.

 

[chubbs]

SST response to ENSO seems unusually large in this 3-year upswing. 

[nflwxman]

SST response to ENSO seems unusually large in this 3-year upswing. 

Might just be playing "catchup" due to an increasing imbalance from all the ENSO negative periods of the last 10 years.

[Snow_Miser]

WxBell CFS is starting September off very warm with an anomaly of +0.3.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not much of an upswing. 

 

If anyone knows how to properly format this stuff.  Let me know.

 

 

 

2010

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.1

-0.4

-0.9

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

2011

-1.4

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

2012

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.2

-0.3

2013

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

2014

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.1

0.1

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

WxBell CFS is starting September off very warm with an anomaly of +0.3.

It should cool off over the next week.  It's going to ebb and flow at a higher baseline than earlier this year due to warm SSTs.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Might just be playing "catchup" due to an increasing imbalance from all the ENSO negative periods of the last 10 years.

Unlikely that ENSO is responsible, as the overall trend in Niño 3.4 since 2012 is actually negative. The system doesn't just wake up one morning and say "hey, I think I'll warm my high latitude SSTs today in response to my long term imbalance". Every domain is constrained within it's boundary state.

It appears that something triggered a huge shift in the Hadley Cells. We'll need to see if it's a semi-permanent shift, or an anomalous event that does not return in 2015.

[StudentOfClimatology]

It should cool off over the next week. It's going to ebb and flow at a higher baseline than earlier this year due to warm SSTs.

You can see that while the tropics have been cooling since early summer, the high latitude SSTs have taken over in terms of conducting heat to the atmosphere.

Red = tropics

Black = global

This is definitely not ENSO:

[nflwxman]

Unlikely that ENSO is responsible, as the overall trend in Niño 3.4 since 2012 is actually negative. The system doesn't just wake up one morning and say "hey, I think I'll warm my high latitude SSTs today in response to my long term imbalance". Every domain is constrained within it's boundary state.

It appears that something triggered a huge shift in the Hadley Cells. We'll need to see if it's a semi-permanent shift, or an anomalous event that does not return in 2015.

Atmospheric heat is distributed around the world and not every ocean basin is entirely in isolation.  Sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature are very closely linked.  That's why Ninos are often associated with even non-equatorial basins heating up as well.  You keep referring to the NPAC and that's great and all, but i'm talking about the globe.  ENSO is not the only part of this, but I believe it's the main key to our "hiatus," and thus will be a main contributor to breaking the "hiatus."

 

Since the pacific is not sucking up heat at the same rate of 2011 and 2012, some additional energy is available to heat your other basins.  Remember, I'm talking about relative to the near past.  At the moment, there is less heat going into the oceans and more at the surface versus 2011, 2012.  Everything will ebb and flow seasonally of course, but I highly doubt we'd be at an SST record with MEI negative.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Unlikely that ENSO is responsible, as the overall trend in Niño 3.4 since 2012 is actually negative. The system doesn't just wake up one morning and say "hey, I think I'll warm my high latitude SSTs today in response to my long term imbalance". Every domain is constrained within it's boundary state.

It appears that something triggered a huge shift in the Hadley Cells. We'll need to see if it's a semi-permanent shift, or an anomalous event that does not return in 2015.

 

 

The problem is their is much more surface and OHC uptake in these regions.  Potentially altering global weather patterns for a while or maybe a major shift. 

 

Also this heat is being dumped directly into the currents that will take into the arctic.  Most of this will be impacts under the ice in the arctic circulations itself.

 

 

One major noticeable one is the current that goes up the West coast of GIS around the Baffin and back down the NE coast of NA has warmed up enough that it has slowed down.  Warm water has started to pile up over the N. Baffin Sub-surface as well as the water that comes back down towards New England is not as cold now. 

 

It's also impacting the local land ice on all sides.  Speeding up it's melt.  Most noticeably on gis. 

 

And while this is fresh water run off.  By the time it reaches the Baffin.  Especially over Western GIS it's reaching upwards of 10C.  This was literally unheard of a decade ago. 

 

This will obviously have effects on currents with salinity.  Potentially decreasing the current speed by lowering the gradient and salinity between the cold fresh water and warmer salt water. 

 

It can be a problem when the new fresh water is immensely warmer then the warm salt water current I would presume it would be less prone to causing sinking and allow the warmer saltier water to keep pressing further North.  Possibly causing atmospheric changes. 

 

It seems for now at least in this area the end result is the lowering of GIS albedo, increasing ice melt, increasing the warmth and amount of warm fresh water run-off.  Ultimately warming the regional atmosphere.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Atmospheric heat is distributed around the world and not every ocean basin is entirely in isolation.  Sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature are very closely linked.  That's why Ninos are often associated with even non-equatorial basins heating up as well.  You keep referring to the NPAC and that's great and all, but i'm talking about the globe.  ENSO is not the only part of this, but I believe it's the main key to our "hiatus," and thus will be a main contributor to breaking the "hiatus."

 

Since the pacific is not sucking up heat at the same rate of 2011 and 2012, some additional energy is available to heat your other basins.  Remember, I'm talking about relative to the near past.  

 

I agree that enso is a bit part of the hiatus. 

 

But the hiatus would end even if enso didn't change.

 

Remember this has been going on for a few years now even with enso being in a negative state.

[nflwxman]

I agree that enso is a bit part of the hiatus. 

 

But the hiatus would end even if enso didn't change.

 

Remember this has been going on for a few years now even with enso being in a negative state.

Agreed.  But, a rebalance of climate system energy could speed or slow the end of hiatus.  In this case, it appears the indicators are working finally to speed the end of the hiatus (as in 2014-2015)

[StudentOfClimatology]

Atmospheric heat is distributed around the world and not every ocean basin is entirely in isolation. Sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature are very closely linked. That's why Ninos are often associated with even non-equatorial basins heating up as well. You keep referring to the NPAC and that's great and all, but i'm talking about the globe. ENSO is not the only part of this, but I believe it's the main key to our "hiatus," and thus will be a main contributor to breaking the "hiatus."

No, I'm referring to the SSTs above 25N across the NH. The SST warming above 25N during the last 6 months has little or nothing to do with ENSO. Suggesting otherwise is just willfully ignorant, and flies in the face of both the CERES data and actual SSTs in the Niño domain.

See the the effect the strong 2009-10 Niño had on the NPAC. That's the ENSO effect. What's happening here has nothing to do with ENSO.

This nonsense has been spread all over the blogosphere and it's time to put it to rest.

Since the pacific is not sucking up heat at the same rate of 2011 and 2012, some additional energy is available to heat your other basins. Remember, I'm talking about relative to the near past. At the moment, there is less heat going into the oceans and more at the surface versus 2011, 2012.

ENSO has cooled in the means since early 2012, so I'm sure what you're suggesting. Your scenario of a slight ENSO warming (which did not occur) should lead to a gradual warming in SSTs roughly at the same magnitude witnessed within the ENSO domain. There is no magical "lid" that a weakly negative ENSO will put on SSTs. Soneow

You sometimes have to look beyond ENSO, GHGes, and TSI to get to root of short term variability, internal to the system and often resonance-based

[nflwxman]

No, I'm referring to the SSTs above 25N. The SST warming above 25N during the last 6 months has little or nothing to do with ENSO. Suggesting otherwise is just willfully ignorant, and flies in the face of both the CERES data and actual SSTs in the Niño domain.

By domain-based boundary states, I'm referring to mechanistic interaction between forcings and the heat transfer (think, Cells, SSTs, MJO, QBO, ENSO). They're all connected.

ENSO has cooled in the means since early 2012, so I'm sure what you're suggesting. Your scenario of a slight ENSO warming (which did not occur) should lead to a gradual warming in SSTs roughly at the same magnitude witnessed within the ENSO domain. There is no magical "lid" that a weakly negative ENSO will put on SSTs.

You sometimes have to look beyond ENSO, GHGes, and TSI to get to root of short term variability, internal to the system and often resonance-based

Your graph is updated to March 2014, before the spring Kelvin wave warmed the ENSO regions.  ENSO has most certainly not trended negative from the beginning of 2012.  I'm not sure what we are debating otherwise.  The 25N warming is probably tangentially related to a little additional heat in the atmosphere versus the deeper ocean, but I'm talking about global ocean surface temperatures.  Big picture.

 

There has never been a record monthly SST anomaly in the midst La Nina conditions (MEI or ONI).  The only way that would happen is if you go long periods of time without a Nino and the additional anthropogenic forcing takes over and overwhelms the old record.  It's incredible that we are breaking records now in ENSO neutral, but that's a product of not having many Ninos over the past 8 years or so. Hadley cells and the QBO are just modulations internally and only are slightly related to the deep ocean/surface heat transfer.  They can impact regional climate very dramatically but global statistics are a different story.  You are missing the forest for the trees, IMO.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Your graph is updated to March 2014, before the spring Kelvin wave warmed the ENSO regions. ENSO has most certainly not trended negative from 2012. I'm not sure what we are debating otherwise. The 25N warming is probably tangentially related to a little additional heat in the atmosphere versus the deeper ocean, but I'm talking about global ocean surface temperatures. Big picture.

See my update. Yes, ENSO has trended negative since May of 2012. We have yet to see any sort of Niño

See the the effect the strong 2009-10 and 1997-98 Niños had on the NPAC. That's the ENSO effect. Weak to moderate Niños rarely have any significant effect here

What's happening here has nothing to do with ENSO. The CERES data verifies this. It is solely due to the unusually broad and poleward oriented Hadley Cells we've seen since 2013, leading to stable, sinking air, and dry air aloft

This ENSO nonsense has been spread all over the blogosphere and it's time to put it to rest. It's pure garbage

[AvantHiatus]

See my update. Yes, ENSO has trended negative since May of 2012. We have yet to see any sort of Niño

See the the effect the strong 2009-10 and 1997-98 Niños had on the NPAC. That's the ENSO effect. Weak to moderate Niños rarely have any significant effect here

What's happening here has nothing to do with ENSO. The CERES data verifies this. It is solely due to the unusually broad and poleward oriented Hadley Cells we've seen since 2013, leading to stable, sinking air, and dry air aloft

This ENSO nonsense has been spread all over the blogosphere and it's time to put it to rest. It's pure garbage

 

Interesting, El Nino events are supposed to cause Hadley Cell contraction? If true, this makes no sense. I agree with you however in hindsight. Your reasoning is sound, just trying to reconcile these conflicting climate signals. It would appear that record-warm global SSTA is a recipe for massive positive feedbacks down the road. 

 

Rising air and elevated 500mb heights are ideal for trapping heat.

 

 

This study seeks a deeper understanding of the causes of Hadley Cell (HC) expansion, as projected under global warming, and HC contraction, as observed under El Niño. Using an idealized general circulation model, the authors show that a thermal forcing applied to a narrow region around the equator produces “El Niño–like” HC contraction, while a forcing with wider meridional extent produces “global warming–like” HC expansion. These circulation responses are sensitive primarily to the thermal forcing’s meridional structure and are less sensitive to its vertical structure. If the thermal forcing is confined to the midlatitudes, the amount of HC expansion is more than three times that of a forcing of comparable amplitude that is spread over the tropics. This finding may be relevant to recently observed trends of rapid tropical widening.

The shift of the HC edge is explained using a very simple model in which the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) circulation acts to diffuse heat meridionally. In this context, the HC edge is defined as the downward maximum of residual vertical velocity in the upper troposphere ; this corresponds well with the conventional Eulerian definition of the HC edge. In response to a positive thermal forcing, there is anomalous diabatic cooling, and hence anomalous TEM descent, on the poleward flank of the thermal forcing. This causes the HC edge () to shift toward the descending anomaly, so that a narrow forcing causes HC contraction and a wide forcing causes HC expansion.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00598.1

[StudentOfClimatology]

Interesting, El Nino events are supposed to cause Hadley Cell contraction? If true, this makes no sense.

It's very interesting, for sure. The abnormal behavior in both the Hadley and Walker cells may explain why the system has been unable to maintain El Niño conditions in recent years. Both attempts at an El Niño (2012-13, 2014-15) were complete fails due to an unfavorable global circulation network.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I remember in 2013 how I was sitting with my mouth gaping at how broad the Hadley Cells were on the sigma charts. I thought that was a once in a lifetime event...but 2014 has been even crazier. The descending branches have surpassed 60N at times. That's just ridiculous.

I hope this is just temporary, otherwise I really don't like the looks of this. We may not be able to recover by winter, which would make snow weenies unhappy during November and December.

[bluewave]

I agree that enso is a bit part of the hiatus. 

 

But the hiatus would end even if enso didn't change.

 

Remember this has been going on for a few years now even with enso being in a negative state.

 

The hiatus wont really end until we the IPO shifts positive again. A record high year or two over the next

few years won't end the hiatus. The hiatus is defined by a slower rate of rise relative to 77-97. 

GISS would probably have to have a +.80 to +.85 year or two which isn't in the cards for 2014-2015.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Isn't in the cards until when? 

[ORH_wxman]

The hiatus wont really end until we the IPO shifts positive again. A record high year or two over the next

few years won't end the hiatus. The hiatus is defined by a slower rate of rise relative to 77-97.

GISS would probably have to have a +.80 to +.85 year or two which isn't in the cards for 2014-2015.

 

 

Well by some..others defined it as basically a flat line in the sfc temps...so in the latter case, these next two years will probably "end" the hiatus from a standpoint of no sfc warming since 2001 or 2002 (depending on the dataset). But I agree with you that we'll need much more to resume a warming on the scale of 0.2C per decade or more.

[nflwxman]

The hiatus wont really end until we the IPO shifts positive again. A record high year or two over the next

few years won't end the hiatus. The hiatus is defined by a slower rate of rise relative to 77-97. 

GISS would probably have to have a +.80 to +.85 year or two which isn't in the cards for 2014-2015.

It depends how you define "hiatus."  If you believe statistically significant warming is needed than really any given 5 year period could be considered a hiatus.  Additional heat will be applied to the system and surface temperatures will warm even if the world is in a constant La Nina state.  In addition, you will have other feedbacks that will add to the warming outside of the trade wind tropics.  One should not also make the mistake in believing the temperature flatline of 1945-1975 was caused entirely by the PDO.

 

I think the rate of warming from when the PDO flipped (2008) to 2023 should be approximately the same as the rate of warming 15 years prior.  The baselines just changed.

[nflwxman]

It's very interesting, for sure. The abnormal behavior in both the Hadley and Walker cells may explain why the system has been unable to maintain El Niño conditions in recent years. Both attempts at an El Niño (2012-13, 2014-15) were complete fails due to an unfavorable global circulation network.

Agreed.  Hadley cell size has been very anomalous the last few years.  Anomalous trade winds may have been the result of that.  I truly believe you and I were talking about two different things above, by the way.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Well by some..others defined it as basically a flat line in the sfc temps...so in the latter case, these next two years will probably "end" the hiatus from a standpoint of no sfc warming since 2001 or 2002 (depending on the dataset). But I agree with you that we'll need much more to resume a warming on the scale of 0.2C per decade or more.

I think a legitimate Niño is the key to ending the hiatus in a rapid fashion, though we didn't need a Niño to end the 1945-1975 slowdown..so maybe the system will end this one without using ENSO.

As of right now, I don't think the hiatus has ended, but we'll need to see how things play out per the next 12-18 months before any assumptions are made.

NCDC

HADCRUT4

GISS

[StudentOfClimatology]

Agreed. Hadley cell size has been very anomalous the last few years. Anomalous trade winds may have been the result of that. I truly believe you and I were talking about two different things above, by the way.

I see, maybe I misunderstood you. No hard feelings.

I've just been referred to blog-after-blog-after-blog, all of which seem to value their pre-determined conclusions over actual data analysis.

[bluewave]

Well by some..others defined it as basically a flat line in the sfc temps...so in the latter case, these next two years will probably "end" the hiatus from a standpoint of no sfc warming since 2001 or 2002 (depending on the dataset). But I agree with you that we'll need much more to resume a warming on the scale of 0.2C per decade or more.

 

Yeah, I would consider a flat line or a slow rise a hiatus. It probably won't happen until we see another great Pacific

climate shift like we had in the late 70's.

 

[ORH_wxman]

I think a legitimate Niño is the key to ending the hiatus in a rapid fashion, though we didn't need a Niño to end the 1945-1975 slowdown..so maybe the system will end this one without using ENSO.

As of right now, it doesn't look like the hiatus has ended, but we'll need to see how things play out before we make any assumptions.

NCDC

HADCRUT4

GISS

 

 

 

The big spike occurred in 1977...which was an El Nino...albeit a fairly modest one. The huge change in the Pacific occurred that year..actually it started in 1976, but was really felt globally by 1977.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Isn't in the cards until when? 

 

Secondly what would this "hiatus" look like without the biggest decline in solar forcing in a century?

 

The last hiatus which you described as 46-76 happened when solar forcing was ramping up and continued to so so until the 1960s. 

 

The start of it coincides with the end of World War 2.   Where large portions of global industry would have been crippled.  As well as the dawn of mass nuclear testing. 

 

 

This one has taken place during the PDO bottoming out. Sub tropical and tropic region aerosol production sky rocketing and the sun going quite like it hasn't since the early 20th century. 

 

But even with those things coming together over the same period.  NH Spring and Summer snow cover has plummeted regardless of how much falls in winter.  Land ice everywhere on Earth has seen a rapid acceleration of ice loss.  Global ssts have crushed previous records only held during major nino events without a nino.  NH sea ice has been crippled. 

 

 

It seems to me the effects of GHG forcing continuing to grow faster and faster are accumulating. 

 

If we are using 30 year periods for a hiatus.  We have about 20 more years to go. 

 

By 2030-2035 I'd bet GISS is putting out 1.0C+ on average or warmer

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

So if the Hadley cell thing returns to whatever is normal we should expect more Nino's and the arctic to be roasted more?