2014 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

the sub tropical Npac and Natl continue to warm as well as the entire far NPAC. 

 

I think 0.50C+ ssta come Mondays update are possible with 0.475C+ more likely. 

 

It takes a few months for this heat to saturate itself in the lower troposphere.  But what is really interesting is how long this heat is holding at this level. 

 

And now we know another warm burst from ENSO is coming.  I expect record warmth from August(now) thru Feb and March at least.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's a shame that row of buoys the sub surface warmth is pressing into is out of order.

 

 

 

 

One thing that is noticeable is that the subsurface warmth is very long.  There isn't very much cool water either out front of it on either chart. 

 

 

 

We have matched last years fall peak in OHC down here and we are likely to easily blow by it and at least reach the 1.0C mark by mid to late September.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Will the NPAC come in about 1.0C? 

 

I mean damn like 80% of the NPAC on this graphic is 0.5C+ are warmer.  How about the sub tropical North Atlantic?

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

GISS/NCDC will likely see a record warm August based off of how warm the WxBell CFS is.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssta didn't go up as much as I speculated they might because off off-setting cooling in the Southern Hemisphere.  But they set another record at .45C+.  Bob Tisdale should have the preliminary August ssta data which will show August absolutely demolishing the next closest monthly value:

 

Top three warmest ssta months:

 

1. December 1997: 0.355C+

2. June 2014: 0.350C+

3. July 2014: 0.341C+

 

 

 

 

So in addition the 3rd record setting week this month alone.  With all 4 August weekly updates being warmer then the previous weekly record as well as crushing the 2nd highest previous weekly record.  All four weekly updates so far in August have been above .40C+.

 

August for the month has come in at .415C+.  Now the warmest on record.

 

 

 

To take how astonishing what is happening even further.  If we excluded NINO months from the list.  The top 6 warmest months on record would be:

 

1.  August 2014

2. June 2014

3. July 2014

4. May 2014

5. August 2013

6. April 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Northern Hemisphere SSTA weeklies demolished the 4 previous weeks that were also all record highs.  I left the graphic larger so it's easier to see.

 

 

 

 

This is just 2014 weeklies for the NH with a black line showing where the previous record in 2005 was.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are starting September with record warm global and Northern Hemisphere ssta.  With the Southern Hemisphere toiling mildly above normal.

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

August 2014 had the highest Sea Surface Temperature anomaly ever on record. Yikes. And this is without even a weak Niño.

[Isotherm]

The recent record high global SST's are due in large part to the very anomalous warmth of the NPAC. This warmth can be traced to the record sea level pressures across the north pacific over the past year. These pressure anomalies have been greater than anything we've seen since 1980.

 

 

 

 

Not surprisingly - where are the impressive SST anomalies located?

 

 

 

 

 

 

This anomalous pressure pattern in the NPAC can in fact be traced to a precursor +ENSO regime which I've discussed on the forum before. Enhanced Rossby wave activity has promoted strong ridging throughout the north Pacific over the past 15 months. This has occurred in prior years before El Nino's; however, not to the extent of the present year.

 

North Pacific SSTA was essentially stable / very little warming trend over the 1980-2010 period by the way. The large spike of the past year is indicative of an anomalous regime shift in the northern hemispheric pressure pattern.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

August 2014 had the highest Sea Surface Temperature anomaly ever on record. Yikes. And this is without even a weak Niño.

 

My post may be a little off-topic but this new record is very noteworthy. It would appear that this imbalance would likely lead to increased moisture transport poleward and more NH blocking as we head into winter. Would anyone venture to guess what this means to NH landmass weather anomalies?

[Isotherm]

My post may be a little off-topic but this new record is very noteworthy. It would appear that this imbalance would likely lead to increased moisture transport poleward and more NH blocking as we head into winter. Would anyone venture to guess what this means to NH landmass weather anomalies?

 

 

Generally warmer than normal SST's in the northern hemisphere promote or positive feedback with mid level ridging patterns. The anomalously warm SSTA of the north pacific and north atlantic could lead to enhanced blocking episodes in the northern hemisphere for the ensuing cold season. There's a chance the ++SSTA diminishes toward winter, but more likely we will see the warmth remain in the northern oceanic basins. Atmospheric drivers are also very important, and can often contradict what the SSTA regime would suggest as far as the pattern.

 

Warmer SST's along the coasts of continents also tend to promote enhanced cyclogenesis and precipitation events.

[Jonger]

Generally warmer than normal SST's in the northern hemisphere promote or positive feedback with mid level ridging patterns. The anomalously warm SSTA of the north pacific and north atlantic could lead to enhanced blocking episodes in the northern hemisphere for the ensuing cold season. There's a chance the ++SSTA diminishes toward winter, but more likely we will see the warmth remain in the northern oceanic basins. Atmospheric drivers are also very important, and can often contradict what the SSTA regime would suggest as far as the pattern.

 

The temps spike around this time every year, but it spiked higher this time because of a high pressure that has almost permanently setup over the north pacific. Last winter had a similar setup and we know what that resulted in. 

[Snow_Miser]

Curious to see how much higher the SST anomaly will climb once we actually get some sort of a Niño.

[Jonger]

Curious to see how much higher the SST anomaly will climb once we actually get some sort of a Niño.

 

They might, but don't expect the north pacific to stay this warm permanently. 

[Isotherm]

They might, but don't expect the north pacific to stay this warm permanently. 

 

 

 

Agree. I think as ENSO warms the north pacific will generally cool, so the two regions essentially cancel each other out, though there might be some lag with the north pacific. Certainly by this time next year I anticipate a significantly colder NPAC SSTA wise.

[nflwxman]

They might, but don't expect the north pacific to stay this warm permanently.

SSTs are likely on a seasonal peak and the North Pacific will cool as we head into winter. The Niño would act to keep SSTs high and offset some of the seasonal drop we see into fall.

But guys..SSTs are record high because of AGW. You can't blame it on some sort of natural fluctuation because there is no Niño AND we are talking about a worldwide measure. You can't overblow the arctic sea ice season, which represents <10% of the earth and than just write off a worldwide SST record as "natural fluctuation." That takes some pretty warped logic

[Jonger]

SSTs are likely on a seasonal peak and the North Pacific will cool as we head into winter. The Niño would act to keep SSTs high and offset some of the seasonal drop we see into fall.

But guys..SSTs are high because of AGW. You can't blame it on some sort of natural fluctuation because there is no Niño AND we are talking about a worldwide measure. You can't overblow the arctic sea ice season, which represents <10% of the earth and than just write off a worldwide SST record as "natural fluctuation." That takes some pretty warped logic

 

AGW might create a background warming, albeit slight, but the north pacific is warm because of a pattern that is rather stagnant. Autumn will bring large scale storms that will mix out the top stagnant layer rather quickly.

[StudentOfClimatology]

AGW leads to a warming of SSTs on a decadal scale. The abrupt spike witnessed in the last six months looks to be related to anomalously broad Hadley Cells and dry air aloft (based on both CERES and NCEP Reanalysis). A very unique radiative signature is showing up in the satellite data.

Now, whether or not this rapid shift in circulation is some sort of semi-permanent, warm season threshold-feedback to AGW remains to be seen. However, this sort of circulation could only operate during the boreal-summer configuration of the dominant cells, as the entire transport network shrinks and propagates southward during the winter season.

[Isotherm]

SSTs are likely on a seasonal peak and the North Pacific will cool as we head into winter. The Niño would act to keep SSTs high and offset some of the seasonal drop we see into fall.

But guys..SSTs are high because of AGW. You can't blame it on some sort of natural fluctuation because there is no Niño AND we are talking about a worldwide measure. You can't overblow the arctic sea ice season, which represents <10% of the earth and than just write off a worldwide SST record as "natural fluctuation." That takes some pretty warped logic

 

 

 

Just over a year ago SST anomalies were on par with many years in the 90s. AGW would cause a longer-time scale gradual warming of said anomalies, but the very sharp spike of the past 12-15 months is due largely to a shorter-term mechanism like the ones identified here w/ the pressure / circulation patterns.

 

Can you point me to a study suggesting that severe SSTA spikes over time spans of a year would be induced by AGW? That argument tends to contradict the behavior of AGW in my view.

[StudentOfClimatology]

However, it must be known that in the geologic past, abrupt climate change was often preceded by rapid circulatory re-arrangement and shifts in high-latitude SSTs. It could be that AGW is pushing the system past a threshold, and that abrupt climate change will ensue. We'll have to watch this because it has happened before..

[Isotherm]

Anyone have any thoughts on the recent Mt. Tavurvur eruption in Papua New Guinea and its potential effects on global temperatures? At this point it doesn't seem to be anywhere near as severe as the Pinatuba eruption, so I'm doubting much impact on global temps right now. Though admittedly I haven't dug into it significantly.

 

Due to stratospheric circulation, tropical volcanoes are much more effective than mid latitude/polar eruptions in dispersing ash throughout the global atmosphere. Ash has already been shot up into the stratosphere with this eruption. I'm not sure how this one compares to past Mt. Tavurvur eruptions however. Will be interesting to see if there are any impacts going forward in terms of global albedo change or global temperatures.

[bluewave]

There doesn't appear to be any long term trend with the North Pacific SST's.

While 2013 set a record as a result of the record blocking high pressure

centered over that area, annual temperatures have been quite variable 

going back to the 1950's. The other interesting thing to note is that

temperature spikes there are often associated with changes in the 

AMO. We saw very warm NP SST's during the last 10 years of the

early to mid century long +AMO phase. The next significant SST

rise was in the early 90's which preceded the 1995 +AMO shift.

So it's quite possible that the current record breaking SST's 

there in 2013-14 are signaling that the current +AMO phase may

entering its last decade like we saw during the 50's into the

early 60's. 

 

[nflwxman]

However, it must be known that in the geologic past, abrupt climate change was often preceded by rapid circulatory re-arrangement and shifts in high-latitude SSTs. It could be that AGW is pushing the system past a threshold, and that abrupt climate change will ensue. We'll have to watch this because it has happened before..

I'd second this, but I don't believe we are on the brink of abrupt climate change. I believe extra forcing along with high heights over the pacific has cause the NPAC to torch.  But the NPAC can't do it alone, the whole world is generally well above average save for a few areas.

 

Isotherm, you are correct- it's the trends that are important.   Breaking a record that has likely been held for thousands of years is far far more significant than having the 8th lowest arctic sea ice extent and/or area. But the trend has clearly been up, despite the strong la ninas of the past 10 years.  A spike in SSTs can be caused by natural fluctuation, but a record of this magnitude would be very unlikely without AGW, IMO.

[nflwxman]

Anyone have any thoughts on the recent Mt. Tavurvur eruption in Papua New Guinea and its potential effects on global temperatures? At this point it doesn't seem to be anywhere near as severe as the Pinatuba eruption, so I'm doubting much impact on global temps right now. Though admittedly I haven't dug into it significantly.

 

Due to stratospheric circulation, tropical volcanoes are much more effective than mid latitude/polar eruptions in dispersing ash throughout the global atmosphere. Ash has already been shot up into the stratosphere with this eruption. I'm not sure how this one compares to past Mt. Tavurvur eruptions however. Will be interesting to see if there are any impacts going forward in terms of global albedo change or global temperatures.

The recent eruption was 10s of magnitudes smaller than Pinatubo, which means if it has an impact of global temperatures, it would be very very small.

[AvantHiatus]

However, it must be known that in the geologic past, abrupt climate change was often preceded by rapid circulatory re-arrangement and shifts in high-latitude SSTs. It could be that AGW is pushing the system past a threshold, and that abrupt climate change will ensue. We'll have to watch this because it has happened before..

As an aside, persistent warm anomalies in the NPAC coupled with a different summer regime than 2013 and 2014 could be a massive blow to the Arctic System.

 

I think we are no more than 20 years away from abrupt climate change and that the SST factor is being overlooked. The vast majority of arctic sea ice has melted from below by warm ocean currents and winter flushing patterns have made the situation worse.

 

We've been exceptionally lucky in regards to ice preservation, hence why none forecasted two back-to-back ideal years in a world being overwhelmed by GHG forcing. Global Oceans are reaching their carrying capacity for heat. This is why the study posted recently has removed the possibility for Hiatus after 2030.

 

Paleotemperatures behave more like a hysteresis than a steady upward or downward trend.

 

 

 

 

Experiments with simplified ocean-circulation and climate models have helped to discover the possible hysteresis behavior of the atmosphere-ocean system. As shown in Box 3.1, hysteresis is one manifestation of multiple equilibria in a nonlinear system. The existence of hysteresis for the THC was first shown by Stocker and Wright (1991), who used a simplified model. For some values of the freshwater balance of the North Atlantic, the THC can be either in a strong or in a collapsed state. Numerous studies with a variety of ocean models coupled to simple representations of the atmosphere have demonstrated the existence of hysteresis (e.g., Mikolajewicz and Maier-Reimer, 1994; Rahmstorf and Willebrand, 1995); this is a robust property of such models. Obviously, in more-complex models, the hysteresis can consist of a number of sub-branches nested in a complicated way. However, it is unclear whether the hysteresis behavior would persist in more-realistic coupled models, particularly if the ocean component has spatial resolution believed to be necessary to be quantitatively consistent with observations. Likewise, it is unclear where the climate system is now on the hysteresis curve of the Atlantic THC: What is its structure? Does it have thresholds? If so, how close is the threshold? The following discussion demonstrates how model- and parameter-dependent the answer can be.

[The_Global_Warmer]

SSTs are likely on a seasonal peak and the North Pacific will cool as we head into winter. The Niño would act to keep SSTs high and offset some of the seasonal drop we see into fall.

But guys..SSTs are record high because of AGW. You can't blame it on some sort of natural fluctuation because there is no Niño AND we are talking about a worldwide measure. You can't overblow the arctic sea ice season, which represents <10% of the earth and than just write off a worldwide SST record as "natural fluctuation." That takes some pretty warped logic

 

The arctic ocean covers 2.8% of the Earths surface area.  This is counting about 14 million km2 of ocean area.  So right now less than 1% of the arctic ocean is covered in ice. 

 

Anywhere covered in sea ice is counted as land in the ssta anomalies.  So these anomalies probably cover about 65% of the Earths water surface right now considering global sea ice area is about 19 mil km2 right now. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Just over a year ago SST anomalies were on par with many years in the 90s. AGW would cause a longer-time scale gradual warming of said anomalies, but the very sharp spike of the past 12-15 months is due largely to a shorter-term mechanism like the ones identified here w/ the pressure / circulation patterns.

 

Can you point me to a study suggesting that severe SSTA spikes over time spans of a year would be induced by AGW? That argument tends to contradict the behavior of AGW in my view.

 

 

That is completely false.

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'd second this, but I don't believe we are on the brink of abrupt climate change. I believe extra forcing along with high heights over the pacific has cause the NPAC to torch.  But the NPAC can't do it alone, the whole world is generally well above average save for a few areas.

 

Isotherm, you are correct- it's the trends that are important.   Breaking a record that has likely been held for thousands of years is far far more significant than having the 8th lowest arctic sea ice extent and/or area. But the trend has clearly been up, despite the strong la ninas of the past 10 years.  A spike in SSTs can be caused by natural fluctuation, but a record of this magnitude would be very unlikely without AGW, IMO.

 

It would be impossible.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The +3C sub surface anomaly is starting to show up on TAO right thru an area of observational buoys.  Unfortunately East of there no observations for such a large region.

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

I'd second this, but I don't believe we are on the brink of abrupt climate change. I believe extra forcing along with high heights over the pacific has cause the NPAC to torch.  But the NPAC can't do it alone, the whole world is generally well above average save for a few areas.

 

Isotherm, you are correct- it's the trends that are important.   Breaking a record that has likely been held for thousands of years is far far more significant than having the 8th lowest arctic sea ice extent and/or area. But the trend has clearly been up, despite the strong la ninas of the past 10 years.  A spike in SSTs can be caused by natural fluctuation, but a record of this magnitude would be very unlikely without AGW, IMO.

 

For the record, there have been two strong Ninas in the past 10 years, and one strong Nino. However, neither Nina was as strong as the 2009-10 Nino.

[chubbs]

For the record, there have been two strong Ninas in the past 10 years, and one strong Nino. However, neither Nina was as strong as the 2009-10 Nino.

 Looking at a running 3-year average, La Nina  has had the upper hand since 2007 but its influence is fading. 

[nflwxman]

 Looking at a running 3-year average, La Nina  has had the upper hand since 2007 but its influence is fading. 

On the money graph.  A prime example of why we should be taking 10 year trends as indicative of the magnitude of AGW.