2014 Global Temperatures

[chubbs]

So far global surface and sea surface temperatures are running much warmer in 2014 - at record or near-record levels. Satellite temps have only increased moderately and are far from records. .

[nflwxman]

So far global surface and sea surface temperatures are running much warmer in 2014 - at record or near-record levels. Satellite temps have only increased moderately and are far from records. .

I thought the GISS record for J-D was 0.66 and not 0.67?

[chubbs]

I thought the GISS record for J-D was 0.66 and not 0.67?

You are correct. I had some old values in spreadsheet

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looking closely at the region(s) contributing to the current warmth, I'm really starting to doubt we see a record this year, though I think we'll hit 2nd or 3rd place on the surface datasets.

The question is whether the oncoming Nino can produce enough warming in the area between 30N and 30S to counteract the inevitable cooling that will occur above 30N as we head through Autumn. Unlike recent years, at this stage, the tropics and northern latitudes are torching, with a large contribution coming from the SSTs above 25-30N. These anomalies always peak in August/September, so unless we see the Niño strengthen significantly, there will likely be an overall decline in global temperatures from September to December.

Unlike recent years, the global tropics are already quite warm due to the El Nino circulations that have been present since March, despite the volatile nature of Nino 3.4. So, I'm not sure how much more warming can occur in the tropics, if any, unless the Niño reaches moderate strength.

[AvantHiatus]

So far global surface and sea surface temperatures are running much warmer in 2014 - at record or near-record levels. Satellite temps have only increased moderately and are far from records. .

Orbital drift

[StudentOfClimatology]

Orbital drift

I know you're trolling, but I suspect the SST warmth is not translating into the lower troposphere, as the OLR spike observed by CERES is heavily focused in the unimpeded wavelengths within the AW. Also suggestive of unusually stable air.

[AvantHiatus]

I know you're trolling, but I suspect the SST warmth is not translating into the lower troposphere, as the OLR spike observed by CERES is heavily focused in the unimpeded wavelengths within the AW. Also suggestive of unusually stable air.

That was what I was thinking. When there is a lack of confidence, you can always split the difference and come in 2nd or 3rd warmest. Satellite-derived products finally responding in the OND period would push us over the edge into record warmest.

 

The surface is where we live, so I would be inclined to hold GISS and other surface datasets with more water, assuming Urban Heat Island is not a massive influence.

 

We will probably see more Global Weirding, dry 500mb layers etc as the different components of the atmospheric system become more out of sync.

[nflwxman]

Looking closely at the region(s) contributing to the current warmth, I'm really starting to doubt we see a record this year, though I think we'll hit 2nd or 3rd place on the surface datasets.

The question is whether the oncoming Nino can produce enough warming in the area between 30N and 30S to counteract the inevitable cooling that will occur above 30N as we head through Autumn. Unlike recent years, at this stage, the tropics and northern latitudes are torching, with a large contribution coming from the SSTs above 25-30N. These anomalies always peak in August/September, so unless we see the Niño strengthen significantly, there will likely be an overall decline in global temperatures from September to December.

Unlike recent years, the global tropics are already quite warm due to the El Nino circulations that have been present since March, despite the volatile nature of Nino 3.4. So, I'm not sure how much more warming can occur in the tropics, if any, unless the Niño reaches moderate strength.

I'm not sure how much you follow 3.4...but it really hasn't been all that warm the last 2 months.  There will likely be a resurgence with a new EKW.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

I think you need to focus more on statistics and less on trying to micro-inspect every global circulation based on uncertain short term data.  You also seem to leave out the anthropogenic competent to your analysis and assume everything is steady state.  We are not in the same atmosphere as 2012 or 2013, let alone 2005.  There is little to no reason why the A-D period should be cooler than 2012 or 2013 given the main global vitals (TSI and ENSO).  I will grant you that the anomaly of a given individual month is subject to circulation variations. Perhaps I'm over simplifying a complex climate system, but when it comes to betting, statistics usually seem to win the day.

 

2012 from A-D finished 0.62 on GISS

 

2013 from A-D finished 0.67 on GISS

 

Do you expect 2014 to finish the homestretch lower than 2013?  That's what it would take to avoid a record (at least on GISS, even less so on the others)

[chrisf97212]

I know you're trolling, but I suspect the SST warmth is not translating into the lower troposphere, as the OLR spike observed by CERES is heavily focused in the unimpeded wavelengths within the AW. Also suggestive of unusually stable air.

 

Interesting.  AGW predicted more blocking.  The stable air increases SST allowing a mechanism for heat to escape the ocean.

[AvantHiatus]

Interesting.  AGW predicted more blocking.  The stable air increases SST allowing a mechanism for heat to escape the ocean.

Yeah, however heat would still be entering the system during the daytime. It would be a race between radiational cooling and GHG forcing.

[chubbs]

Looking closely at the region(s) contributing to the current warmth, I'm really starting to doubt we see a record this year, though I think we'll hit 2nd or 3rd place on the surface datasets.

The question is whether the oncoming Nino can produce enough warming in the area between 30N and 30S to counteract the inevitable cooling that will occur above 30N as we head through Autumn. Unlike recent years, at this stage, the tropics and northern latitudes are torching, with a large contribution coming from the SSTs above 25-30N. These anomalies always peak in August/September, so unless we see the Niño strengthen significantly, there will likely be an overall decline in global temperatures from September to December.

Unlike recent years, the global tropics are already quite warm due to the El Nino circulations that have been present since March, despite the volatile nature of Nino 3.4. So, I'm not sure how much more warming can occur in the tropics, if any, unless the Niño reaches moderate strength.

 

Disagree August is going to be a warm month. Don't see recent global temperature trends reversing until ENSO/PDO conditions change. 

[Mallow]

You don't take runaway global warming seriously, Jared?

 

My lack of concern over global warming should be very concerning.

 

Is this necessary?

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm not sure how much you follow 3.4...but it really hasn't been all that warm the last 2 months. There will likely be a resurgence with a new EKW.

Niño 3.4 itself does not control global temperatures. Those warm waters already exist west of the dateline without a Niño, and are pushed eastward during El Niño. The global temperature and SST spikes during El Niño are a result of shifts in tropical convection, latent heat release, and various circulations that constrain vertical heat transport in the Tropical Pacific, and are reflected in the tropical AAM budget. In El Niño, you reduce that longitudinal tension, weaken those surface winds, and spike the global temperatures. We've already seen the Niño reflected in the atmosphere, the problem for Nino 3.4 is the upwelling phase of the OKW was occurring while a new KW was developing in the West PAC.

I think you need to focus more on statistics and less on trying to micro-inspect every global circulation based on uncertain short term data. You also seem to leave out the anthropogenic competent to your analysis and assume everything is steady state. We are not in the same atmosphere as 2012 or 2013, let alone 2005.

The problem is your statistical application here is non-physical. CO^2 forcing is essentially the same now as it was in 2012, and ENSO is actually colder now than it was in 2012, at this time. Since 2005, CO^2 forcing has increased maybe 0.4-0.5W/m^2. You're acting as if ENSO and CO^2 forcing are the only factors that govern year-to-year variability in global temperatures. I can think of 8 forcings that are traceable and contribute significantly on short timescales.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Disagree August is going to be a warm month. Don't see recent global temperature trends reversing until ENSO/PDO conditions change.

I agree that August will be a warmth month, perhaps the warmest month yet relative to average. However, this warmth, largely focused north of 25N, does not appear to be related to ENSO or the "PDO". These SSTs will cool as we head deeper into Autumn, so unless tropical SSTs spike enough to counteract this cooling, a record is probably out of reach.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Interesting. AGW predicted more blocking. The stable air increases SST allowing a mechanism for heat to escape the ocean.

I disagree. The heat needs to be effectively transported into the atmosphere for maximum emission. To cool the ocean skin, you need surface winds. The skin cools primarily via evaporation (latent heating), which is then released in the low/middle troposphere upon condensation, and eventually emitted.

The stable air and lack of wind has resulted in continued warming of the SSTs.

[nflwxman]

Niño 3.4 itself does not control global temperatures. Those warm waters already exist west of the dateline without a Niño, and are pushed eastward during El Niño. The global temperature and SST spikes during El Niño are a result of shifts in tropical convection, latent heat release, and various circulations that constrain vertical heat transport in the Tropical Pacific, and are reflected in the tropical AAM budget. In El Niño, you reduce that longitudinal tension, weaken those surface winds, and spike the global temperatures. We've already seen the Niño reflected in the atmosphere, the problem for Nino 3.4 is the upwelling phase of the OKW was occurring while a new KW was developing in the West PAC.

The problem is your statistical application here is non-physical. CO^2 forcing is essentially the same now as it was in 2012, and ENSO is actually colder now than it was in 2012, at this time. Since 2005, CO^2 forcing has increased maybe 0.4-0.5W/m^2. You're acting as if ENSO and CO^2 forcing are the only factors that govern year-to-year variability in global temperatures. I can think of 8 forcings that are traceable and contribute significantly on short timescales.

I'm not sure if you meant to do this, but you essentially said Nino contributes greatly to global temperatures while having your opening statement say the exact opposite.  I find it interesting that you say we have seen the nino reflected in the atmosphere when there hasn't been a nino.  The vast majority of the higher anomalies from a nino come from a shift of the prominent ridging and latent heat release, which is a direct result of warmer waters and decreased trades.  Of course other natural factors impact global temperatures, as recent papers have discussed, but they certainly are as correlative or vital as ENSO and TSI.

 

Right about 2012, but ENSO is certainly higher now than it was in 2013.  Remember, we can generally expect a 0.016-0.020C/yr increase in temperatures all else being the same if mainstream climate sensitivity theory is correct.  Here we have a situation where ENSO is forcasted to ramp up relatively quickly in the next month.  While nothing is certain in a period as short as 5 months, I would suggest it's slightly better than the coin flip you are indicating.

 

A non-physical and statistical analysis is appropriate here.  The Foster paper in 2011 used a series of statistical methods to essentially filter out natural variability to show that the global warming signal has been nearly constant.  Was it perfect? No, but it was a pretty groundbreaking approach that really cut through all the abstract theory that was floating in the blogosphere. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm not sure if you meant to do this, but you essentially said Nino contributes greatly to global temperatures while having your opening statement say the exact opposite. I find it interesting that you say we have seen the nino reflected in the atmosphere when there hasn't been a nino. The vast majority of the higher anomalies from a nino come from a shift of the prominent ridging and latent heat release, which is a direct result of warmer waters and decreased trades. Of course other natural factors impact global temperatures, as recent papers have discussed, but they certainly are as correlative or vital as ENSO and TSI.

The SSTs in Niño 3.4 are not solely responsible for the link between ENSO and global temperatures. There are more important, large-scale reasons for that connection.

I tried to elaborate on this in my earlier post:

Niño 3.4 itself does not control global temperatures. Those warm waters already exist west of the dateline without a Niño, and are pushed eastward during El Niño. The global temperature and SST spikes during El Niño are a result of shifts in tropical convection, latent heat release, and various circulations that constrain vertical heat transport in the Tropical Pacific, and are reflected in the tropical AAM budget. In El Niño, you reduce that longitudinal tension, weaken those surface winds, and spike the global temperatures. We've already seen the Niño reflected in the atmosphere, the problem for Nino 3.4 is the upwelling phase of the OKW was occurring while a new KW was developing in the West PAC.

As for your next point:

Right about 2012, but ENSO is certainly higher now than it was in 2013. Remember, we can generally expect a 0.016-0.020C/yr increase in temperatures all else being the same if mainstream climate sensitivity theory is correct. Here we have a situation where ENSO is forcasted to ramp up relatively quickly in the next month. While nothing is certain in a period as short as 5 months, I would suggest it's better than the coin flip you are indicating.

Okay, so even if we assume the maximum suggested warming via CO^2 forcing since 2012 (0.04C), we still have a colder ENSO now than we did in 2012...so the two roughly cancel out. So why are global temperatures and SSTs so warm north of 25N?? I was intrigued by this, which is why I had to dive deeper into the CERES data to find out why. Now you're telling me to ignore this statistical deviation and go back to the faulty ENSO explanation?

A non-physical and statistical analysis is appropriate here. The Foster paper in 2011 used a series of statistical methods to essentially filter out natural variability to show that the global warming signal has been nearly constant. Was it perfect? No, but it was a pretty groundbreaking approach that really cut through all the abstract theory that was floating in the blogosphere.

I don't care about the hiatus because it's irrelevant to AGW. That extra energy exists somewhere and that's all that matters. I'm also not going to fool myself into believing I can figure out the mechanisms behind it.

[nflwxman]

The SSTs in Niño 3.4 are not responsible for the link between ENSO and global temperatures. There are more important, large-scale reasons for that connection.

Okay, so even if we assume the maximum suggested warming via CO^2 forcing since 2012 (0.04C), we still have a colder ENSO now than we did in 2012...so the two roughly cancel out. So why are global temperatures and SSTs so warm north of 25N?? I was intrigued by this, which is why I had to dive deeper into the CERES data to find out why. Now you're telling me to ignore this statistical deviation and go back to the faulty ENSO explanation?

I don't care about the hiatus because it's irrelevant to AGW. That extra energy exists somewhere and that's all that matters. I'm also not going to fool myself into believing I can figure out the mechanisms behind it.

 

MEI could be a more appropriate use, if you'd like.  It's still not all that high relative to past warm ENSO events.

 

The SSTs 30N may be warm for a couple of reasons. It could be constant ridging over the past few years in the area, it could be an AGW feedback, it could be an ocean circulation, or it could be a mix of everything.  I consider this somewhat irrelevant in calculating where global temperatures go from here.  The latent heat release 30N is quite a bit less than the ENSO regions given the same anomalies, thus the lower impact on temperatures.

 

2012 is not quite the same as 2014.  2012 was following a strong double dip nina event.  As you know, global temperatures as it relates to ENSO are a product of time and momentum.  A good example- An El Nino sandwiched by strong La Nina events (as 2009-2010) will be less effective in spiking global temperatures relative to the previous decade than an equivalently strong El Nino sandwiched by ENSO neutral events (2005).  This is where the PDO comes into play, IMO.

 

I know you look at this in a sound scientific manner, so I think we are just having a friendly debate about methodology to predict future warming.  It's interesting stuff.

 

EDIT: At least this will be testable in the next 5 months versus 5 decades

 

2003, 1998, and 2005 were all ninos following an ENSO neutral year.  2009-2010 which was a short ENSO event, did not lead to much of a spike in relative temperatures since it following a nina year (among other reasons).

 

[chubbs]

I agree that August will be a warmth month, perhaps the warmest month yet relative to average. However, this warmth, largely focused north of 25N, does not appear to be related to ENSO or the "PDO". These SSTs will cool as we head deeper into Autumn, so unless tropical SSTs spike enough to counteract this cooling, a record is probably out of reach.

 With fits and starts global temperatures have been increasing since La Nina ended in spring of 2012. Expect global avg temps to  continue to increase in a back and forth manner until La Nina returns.

[nflwxman]

 With fits and starts global temperatures have been increasing since La Nina ended in spring of 2012. Expect global avg temps to  continue to increase in a back and forth manner until La Nina returns.

Right.  It's a product of momentum in a way.  Until a nina or borderline nina comes around to temporarily derail the train, it will continue chugging forward.  The more La ninas there are, the more the train becomes derailed, lending a big hand to our current "hiatus."

[StudentOfClimatology]

MEI could be a more appropriate use, if you'd like. It's still not all that high relatively to past warm ENSO events.

I agree, it's better. I get the best results when I filter for the QBO and AAM base. The -QBO leads to elevated tropopause and warmer tropics overall. This year we saw the SST spike occur right when the negative QBO set in, so I think it's a player here.

The SSTs 30N may be warm for a couple of reasons. It could be constant ridging over the past few years in the area, it could be an AGW feedback, it could be an ocean circulation, or it could be a mix of everything. I consider this somewhat irrelevant in calculating where global temperatures go from here.

Why? That's exactly what I think is wrong with your analysis. I looked for the mechanism behind this warmth and found it. This warmth should fade overall from September to December if history has anything to say about it. So we'll need other areas of the globe to warm enough to counteract this decrease, and then some..

The latent heat release 30N is quite a bit less than the ENSO regions given the same anomalies, thus the lower impact on temperatures.

Sure, but for surface temperature datasets, SSTs are heavily incorporated/substituted for station measurements...hence those warm SSTs are the reason why the land surface datasets are near record highs, while the satellites aren't even close.

I would expect ENSO warming to contribute to warming in the satellite data, but if you want to maintain that warmth on the surface datasets, you're going to need a lot of ENSO warming to make up for the cooling of those high latitude SSTs

I know you look at this in a sound scientific manner, so I think we are just having a friendly debate about methodology to predict future warming. It's interesting stuff.

Thanks, agreed.

I enjoy your posts very much and apologize if I sound cold. Either way, I think this will be an interesting experiment, and a great learning experience for us.

[StudentOfClimatology]

With fits and starts global temperatures have been increasing since La Nina ended in spring of 2012. Expect global avg temps to continue to increase in a back and forth manner until La Nina returns.

Exactly, but there are reasons for the "wild swings" since then. I think we're at the peak of one of those upward swings now. I agree we'll see overall warming, but that isn't what the crux of the debate here is about, if I'm reading things correctly.

[chubbs]

Exactly, but there are reasons for the "wild swings" since then. I think we're at the peak of one of those upward swings now. I agree we'll see overall warming, but that isn't what the crux of the debate here is about, if I'm reading things correctly.

Thanks for the clarification. Global temps did dip a little in June and July and have bounced right back. Once a trend in the 12-month moving average is established in an ENSO cycle it usually continues till conditions change. So I only expect minor setbacks if any through the end of the year. 

[tacoman25]

 

2012 from A-D finished 0.62 on GISS

 

2013 from A-D finished 0.67 on GISS

 

Do you expect 2014 to finish the homestretch lower than 2013?  That's what it would take to avoid a record (at least on GISS, even less so on the others)

 

I do. Because tropical/ENSO SSTA were warmer in 2013 leading up to that period.

[tacoman25]

Is this necessary?

 

Is it necessary that every post in this forum has to be dead serious?

 

Serious question.

[tacoman25]

Right.  It's a product of momentum in a way.  Until a nina or borderline nina comes around to temporarily derail the train, it will continue chugging forward.  The more La ninas there are, the more the train becomes derailed, lending a big hand to our current "hiatus."

 

Seems so simple now, but it wasn't long ago that some climate scientists were claiming AGW was overwhelming ENSO tendencies.

[Mallow]

Is it necessary that every post in this forum has to be dead serious?

 

Serious question.

 

You know the answer to that question--of course not.

 

From my perspective, the exchange I quoted was a bit more than just joking around... it was done in poor taste at the very least. The kind of "gotcha" one-liner that is used to establish superiority over a (straw-man) position. Meh, whatever.

[nflwxman]

Seems so simple now, but it wasn't long aghttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/o that some climate scientists were claiming AGW was overwhelming ENSO tendencies.

I'm not sure what you are referring to, but I'm pretty sure no climate scientist said AGW can overwhelm ENSO over a sub decade period, which is essentially what we are talking about at this point.

 

Also 2014 SSTs colder than 2013, on what planet?

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[tacoman25]

You know the answer to that question--of course not.

 

From my perspective, the exchange I quoted was a bit more than just joking around... it was done in poor taste at the very least. The kind of "gotcha" one-liner that is used to establish superiority over a (straw-man) position. Meh, whatever.

 

Yeah...no. Just joking around, and yes, poking a bit of fun at the alarmists calling for impending doom. That's not a straw man, it's a very real segment. Calling it in "poor taste" seems absurdly over-sensitive.

 

I agree with your last sentence, however.

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what you are referring to, but I'm pretty sure no climate scientist said AGW can overwhelm ENSO over a sub decade period, which is essentially what we are talking about at this point.

 

Also 2014 SSTs colder than 2013, on what planet?

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Yeah, I was confused by that post, too. Over the past 100 years, I think it's fair to say AGW has "overwhelmed" ENSO. Over short time-scales, I don't think anyone would argue that.