2014 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

There's significant disagreement in the literature concerning the magnitude of OHC increase. A recent 2014 study indicates a 0.2 +/- 0.1 increase in OHC in the 1992-2011 period. Additionally, there is solid evidence that the deep oceans from 2000m down to 4000m --> bottom have cooled over the past two decades. What would be the cause of this? The top 100m of the oceans have slightly cooled according to this study. Most climate modeling suggested the top layer of the oceans would store heat first, but this does not seem to be occurring, at least yet.

 

 

SSTA is not a substitute for OHC.  But it's hard to believe anyone can look at these changes and think it's minimal.

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

SSTA is not a substitute for OHC.  But it's hard to believe anyone can look at these changes and think it's minimal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Couple of points:

 

1. You can't take only two points of data and utilize that as an argument for a trend. For example, I cannot say this - "Global temperatures were around +0.65C in the early months of 1998, and in the early months of 2008, global temperatures were near -0.25C. Therefore, we saw a significant global cooling over the 1998 to 2008 period." That statement is clearly untrue.

 

2. The scaling on those two images is significantly different. One ends at 2.4+ and the other ends at 1.5+.

 

Yes, the one image is still warmer than the other, but using only those images doesn't prove a warming trend occurred in SSTA. They are two snapshots in time.

[Msalgado]

There's significant disagreement in the literature concerning the magnitude of OHC increase. A recent 2014 study indicates a 0.2 +/- 0.1 increase in OHC in the 1992-2011 period. Additionally, there is solid evidence that the deep oceans from 2000m down to 4000m --> bottom have cooled over the past two decades. What would be the cause of this? The top 100m of the oceans have slightly cooled according to this study. Most climate modeling suggested the top layer of the oceans would store heat first, but this does not seem to be occurring, at least yet.

 

All OHC datasets aside, given sea level increases I think its pretty undeniable that the ocean is storing quite a bit of heat over that time frame.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssts have broken their own record multiple times in 2014 on multiple data sets.  August of 2014 is going to crush the monthlies in absurd fashion.

 

 

Since 2002 the warmest anomalies came in 2005 and at the end of 09/10.  Then 2013 beat those out during a enso neg nuetral period.

 

Now 2014 has crushed everyone with an unprecedented 3 straight weeks above .40C+ with this past week slightly above .44C+

 

 

 

 

We can go back to the super nino of 1997/98 and one week reached .40C with most around .35C+ as the peak during the peak of the super nino.

 

2014 without a nino at all has crushed every other year enso or not.

 

 

We are way past go now.  You believe the sun is the main climate driver but yet here we are.

 

[Jonger]

Troughing over the landmass and ridging over the ocean is most likely responsible. Last I checked, western europe was the only landmass that looked well above normal YTD.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Troughing over the landmass and ridging over the ocean is most likely responsible. Last I checked, western europe was the only landmass that looked well above normal YTD.

 

 

Not quite.

[nflwxman]

Troughing over the landmass and ridging over the ocean is most likely responsible. Last I checked, western europe was the only landmass that looked well above normal YTD.

You do realize if the ridging was over land versus over the ocean, we would likely be seeing much higher monthly anomaly values?  I agree the ridging over the ocean are somewhat responsible, but that in context with AGW are conspiring for the record breaking SSTs...without a nino.

 

I'd say the the end is near for the global temperature rise slowdown of the last decade.

[chubbs]

I see the WxBell CFSR temperature plot has come up again. The 2010 temp drop circled in red below is not present in other datasets. You have to question the technical skill or motive of anyone using this dataset  when other better suited long-term temperature series are available.

[nflwxman]

Hadcrut4 comes in the warmest for July of all the major datasets- 3rd warmest July.

 

[Jonger]

You do realize if the ridging was over land versus over the ocean, we would likely be seeing much higher monthly anomaly values?  I agree the ridging over the ocean are somewhat responsible, but that in context with AGW are conspiring for the record breaking SSTs...without a nino.

 

I'd say the the end is near for the global temperature rise slowdown of the last decade.

 

The ocean surface temps have crept upward at a slow pace for a decade.

 

We are warming as a planet, just slowly.

 

Next year could feature warmth over land and cool over the ocean, its why last winter was so cold in the US.

[Jonger]

Not quite.

 

 

YTD, not August 1st to August 28th.

[nflwxman]

The ocean surface temps have crept upward at a slow pace for a decade.

 

We are warming as a planet, just slowly.

 

Next year could feature warmth over land and cool over the ocean, its why last winter was so cold in the US.

You know just as well that ocean surface temperatures are very tied to ENSO.

 

Considering we've been ENSO negative about 75% of the time since 2008, even a slow creep up of ocean surface temperatures should be concerning.

 

One of the many reasons we are finally seeing some accelerated global warmth is because we are actually seeing ENSO neutral conditions for a extended period of time.  It's been about 2 years since the last deep La Nina.  You can expect the acceleration upward of global temperatures as ENSO continues to trend positive into next year.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Thing is the CERES data is tracking well with the SST spike, with record highs (Northern Hemisphere) in OLR set during May, June, and July. Looking at the spectral deviations, it appears the atmosphere over the NH has been quite stable overall since April/May, with wide Hadley Cells and reduced cloud cover above 30N leading to warm SSTs:

http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php

If this is true, SSTs will probably cool from September onward as we descend into boreal winter.

[StudentOfClimatology]

One of the many reasons we are finally seeing some accelerated global warmth is because we are actually seeing ENSO neutral conditions for a extended period of time. It's been about 2 years since the last deep La Nina. You can expect the acceleration upward of global temperatures as ENSO continues to trend positive into next year.

It has very little to do with ENSO, actually, if you're referring to the SSTs above 30N. When you look deeper into the spectral data, it appears what we're seeing is related to a seasonal migration/expansion of the NH Hadley Cells. This isn't really traceable to ENSO at all, and is probably temporary.

If you want to look beyond seasonal noise, follow the temperature trends along and equatorialward from the horse latitudes

[nflwxman]

It has very little to do with ENSO, actually. When you look deeper into the spectral data, it appears what we're seeing is related to a seasonal migration/expansion of the NH Hadley Cells. This isn't really traceable to ENSO at all, and is probably temporary.

So you disagree that if we had a lower Nina caliber ONI index, SSTs would be significantly lower?  I disagree with your point on a larger time scale. SST and global temps in general would be quite a bit lower with cooler water bubbling in the equatorial pacific.  Hadley cell size is just "noise" on probably on a seasonal basis at best, but as far as annual or biannual values they have very little impact, IMO.  The correlation below is pretty undeniable.  I assume we are only talking about SSTs and not global temperatures.

 

I'm with Trenberth on this issue- It's the pacific.

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

So you disagree that if we had a lower Nina caliber ONI index, SSTs would be significantly lower? I disagree with your point on a larger time scale. SST and global temps in general would be quite a bit lower with cooler water bubbling in the equatorial pacific. Hadley cell size is just "noise" on probably on a seasonal basis at best, but as far as annual or biannual values they have very little impact, IMO. The correlation below is pretty undeniable. I assume we are only talking about SSTs and not global temperatures.

I'm with Trenberth on this issue- It's the pacific.

Read my clarification...I said SSTs above 30N. The SSTs below ~25-30N will correlate better to ENSO. If you try to include high-latitude SSTs you're going to get a noisy, incoherent signal because you have different governing forcings up there (Hadley Cells, QBO, NAM, etc). Your graphic shows no trend in ENSO SSTs, so the high-latitude warming is not due to ENSO.

Also, your ENSO graphic only goes back to 1990, so it's biased towards cooling. Go back to 1979 and you get a different picture:

We have yet to see any significant ENSO warming this year, and in fact ENSO was much warmer 2 years ago. The SST spike above 30N is solely intra-seasonal, and not indicative of ENSO forcing, in any way:

We saw a large spike in ENSO during the summer of 2012, but did not see the surge in SSTs above 30N because the Hadley Cells were not as anomalously broad. The spectral data pretty much settles this.

[Jonger]

If we get some real storm action into the north pacific, you will see temps start to crash... Its been pretty dead calm over the north pacific since last fall.

 

Without looking, I would assume deeper north pacific waters have been quite flat to falling since this period of quiet began.

[nflwxman]

Read my clarification...I said SSTs above 30N. The SSTs below ~25-30N will correlate better to ENSO. If you try to include high-latitude SSTs you're going to get a noisy, incoherent signal because you have different governing forcings up there (Hadley Cells, QBO, NAM, etc). Your graphic shows no trend in ENSO SSTs, so the high-latitude warming is not due to ENSO.

Also, your ENSO graphic only goes back to 1990, so it's biased towards cooling. Go back to 1979 and you get a different picture:

We have yet to see any significant ENSO warming this year, and in fact ENSO was much warmer 2 years ago. The SST spike above 30N is solely intra-seasonal, and not indicative of ENSO forcing, in any way:

We saw a large spike in ENSO during the summer of 2012, but did not see the surge in SSTs above 30N because the Hadley Cells were not as anomalously broad. The spectral data pretty much settles this.

I agree.  Thanks for the clarification.  

[StudentOfClimatology]

I agree. Thanks for the clarification.

Thanks, no problem

[chrisf97212]

OHC updated for the AMJ

 

It is the highest on record for the April-June period beating out 2013s record.

 

 

 

 

What is the total OHC?  You frequently post the change but I'm wondering what that is as a percentage.

[chrisf97212]

There's significant disagreement in the literature concerning the magnitude of OHC increase. A recent 2014 study indicates a 0.2 +/- 0.1 increase in OHC in the 1992-2011 period. Additionally, there is solid evidence that the deep oceans from 2000m down to 4000m --> bottom have cooled over the past two decades. What would be the cause of this? The top 100m of the oceans have slightly cooled according to this study. Most climate modeling suggested the top layer of the oceans would store heat first, but this does not seem to be occurring, at least yet.

 

I thought the troposphere was supposed to warm up first.

[chrisf97212]

Read my clarification...I said SSTs above 30N. The SSTs below ~25-30N will correlate better to ENSO. If you try to include high-latitude SSTs you're going to get a noisy, incoherent signal because you have different governing forcings up there (Hadley Cells, QBO, NAM, etc). Your graphic shows no trend in ENSO SSTs, so the high-latitude warming is not due to ENSO.

Also, your ENSO graphic only goes back to 1990, so it's biased towards cooling. Go back to 1979 and you get a different picture:

We have yet to see any significant ENSO warming this year, and in fact ENSO was much warmer 2 years ago. The SST spike above 30N is solely intra-seasonal, and not indicative of ENSO forcing, in any way:

We saw a large spike in ENSO during the summer of 2012, but did not see the surge in SSTs above 30N because the Hadley Cells were not as anomalously broad. The spectral data pretty much settles this.

Any theory on why the Hadley Cells are anomalously broad? 

[chrisf97212]

Thing is the CERES data is tracking well with the SST spike, with record highs (Northern Hemisphere) in OLR set during May, June, and July. .....

 

Meaning high SST are energy leaving the ocean/system?

[Mallow]

I don't think he cherry-picked it. He's probably just ignorant of the fact that it cannot/should not be utilized as an accurate and reliable temperature database. Cherry-picking to me involves full knowledge that what you're doing is wrong, and thus purposely choosing to show false information to promulgate a certain agenda.

 

There are people on all sides of the climate debate cherry-picking. Let's be honest. Is JB cherry picking in this case? Maybe, but I think the real reason is ignorance.

 

That's not what cherry-picking is. Cherry-picking does not involve "full knowledge that what you're doing is wrong." It simply involves having (and knowing you have) several potential options available to you, and choosing to believe the minority option that supports your stance, in the face of the majority evidence to the contrary. One can be ignorant of WHY a dataset is wrong, and yet still be involved in cherry-picking.

 

There are only two ways you could argue that JB is not cherry-picking here. On one hand, he could be completely unaware of the existence of the other datasets (GISS, HadCRUT, etc). Chance of that? About 0%. On the other hand, he could have a solid, unbiased, and verifiable explanation for why all the other data sets are wrong, in which case the field as a whole should and would move to using the CFS dataset. Chance of that? About 0%.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Any theory on why the Hadley Cells are anomalously broad?

I'm not sure. I could be a feedback to AGW, or it could be some sort of natural oscillation. Or maybe it's both. Who knows at this point?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Meaning high SST are energy leaving the ocean/system?

An increase in overall outgoing radiation measured by the CERES satellite suite. The spectral specifics give clues to the mechanism(s)..

[HailMan06]

I'm not sure. I could be a feedback to AGW, or it could be some sort of natural oscillation. Or maybe it's both. Who knows at this point?

I'm curious to know what the global prevailing wind patterns were during the Earth's most recent greenhouse period.

[skierinvermont]

The CFSR is not an accurate indicator of global temperature. It contains spurious drops in model output. I'm not sure of the exact reason but could have something to do with model upgrades or simply the fact that it doesn't use observational data. 

 

Also, the idea that OHC has been rising at only .2W/m2 since 1992 is bogus. Numerous studies put it at around .6W/m2. In addition, it is impossible to explain the rise of the oceans without significantly rising OHC. 

 

You could link us the study Isotherm but I am very doubtful of its integrity. 

[tacoman25]

You don't take runaway global warming seriously, Jared?

 

My lack of concern over global warming should be very concerning.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Weatherbell monthly has reached 0.140C+ now.  A standard GISS equivalent of 0.69C+. 

 

The dailies are running between .25-.35C+.

 

 

The August record is .69C+ set in 2011.