StudentOfClimatology Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 The correct interpolation methods/equations are being reached, and there's a good consensus now on the accuracy of the satellite data, though there are a few scientists still going rogue. Here's some further research if you're interested: Wang/Zou et al 2014: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JAtOT..31..808W The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A, 1998–present) not only continues but surpasses the Microwave Sounding Unit’s (MSU, 1978–2006) capability in atmospheric temperature observation. It provides valuable satellite measurements for higher vertical resolution and long-term climate change research and trend monitoring. This study presented methodologies for generating 11 channels of AMSU-A-only atmospheric temperature data records from the lower troposphere to the top of the stratosphere. The recalibrated AMSU-A level 1c radiances recently developed by the Center for Satellite Applications and Research group were used. The recalibrated radiances were adjusted to a consistent sensor incidence angle (nadir), channel frequencies (prelaunch-specified central frequencies), and observation time (local solar noon time). Radiative transfer simulations were used to correct the sensor incidence angle effect and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-15 (NOAA-15) channel 6 frequency shift. Multiyear averaged diurnal/semidiurnal anomaly climatologies from climate reanalysis as well as climate model simulations were used to adjust satellite observations to local solar noon time. Adjusted AMSU-A measurements from six satellites were carefully quality controlled and merged to generate 13+ years (1998–2011) of a monthly 2.5° × 2.5° gridded atmospheric temperature data record. Major trend features in the AMSU-A-only atmospheric temperature time series, including global mean temperature trends and spatial trend patterns, were summarized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Thanks for the information. I'll look at it a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Well yes, tropospheric temps and surface temps are different though. Just because UAH shows a particular slope or trend does not mean GISS has to. I'm still not sold on UAH or RSS period. The revision history is abundant and the equipment has been problematic. It is nice to have multiple measurements. This shouldn't be a valid reason to dismiss the satellite temps in favor of the sfc temps because the sfc temp revisions are extremely frequent...more than the satellites. If there is a reason to be skeptical of the satellites, it should be solely due to the equipment/calibration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 This shouldn't be a valid reason to dismiss the satellite temps in favor of the sfc temps because the sfc temp revisions are extremely frequent...more than the satellites. If there is a reason to be skeptical of the satellites, it should be solely due to the equipment/calibration. It's valid for me simply due to magnitude of revision related to equipment. I think this just a semantics error on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 It's valid for me simply due to magnitude of revision related to equipment. UAH had a large revision way back in the day (early 2000s maybe) which corrected satellite drift...but since then, the revisions have been relatively small. There is really no reason to doubt the validity since that time simply because the revisions are "frequent"....they are actually infrequent compared to the revisions we accrue in the surface temperature dataset. RSS seems to have more issues with drift...at least according to Christy and Spencer. But I am unaware of this being referenced in the literature yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 UAH had a large revision way back in the day (early 2000s maybe) which corrected satellite drift...but since then, the revisions have been relatively small. There is really no reason to doubt the validity since that time simply because the revisions are "frequent"....they are actually infrequent compared to the revisions we accrue in the surface temperature dataset. RSS seems to have more issues with drift...at least according to Christy and Spencer. But I am unaware of this being referenced in the literature yet. Right. However, it appears that UAH is working on a major V.6 revision coming up that could slightly change the long term trend. I would like to see RSS under the microscope a bit more as it seems to have been dropped as a temperature source in a lot of literature recently. That's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Right. However, it appears that UAH is working on a major V.6 revision coming up that could slightly change the long term trend. I would like to see RSS under the microscope a bit more as it seems to have been dropped as a temperature source in a lot of literature recently. That's a shame. It wouldn't be a huge shift, but the post-1998 years will be cooled a bit...not down to RSS levels, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 UAH had a large revision way back in the day (early 2000s maybe) which corrected satellite drift...but since then, the revisions have been relatively small. There is really no reason to doubt the validity since that time simply because the revisions are "frequent"....they are actually infrequent compared to the revisions we accrue in the surface temperature dataset. RSS seems to have more issues with drift...at least according to Christy and Spencer. But I am unaware of this being referenced in the literature yet. It's an interesting dilemma. UAH claims RSS is suffering from drift, while RSS claims it is UAH that is in error with their interpolation equations. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 It's an interesting dilemma. UAH claims RSS is suffering from drift, while RSS claims it is UAH that is in error with their interpolation equations. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I'd bet UAH is closer to correct....maybe 70/30 or something? Either way, the surface datasets have their own issues as well. The bizarre change in SST data on GISS without any real explanation is one of them. It's probably why we use a bunch of datasets rather than just one...as any individual dataset can be scrutinized...we probably sometimes do it to a fault forgetting that there are error bars in these datasets. We obsess over like 0.02C when the error is more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Weatherbell dailies have shot back up to .18C. The monthly is right at 0.10C. ENSO appears to be gearing up another push of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Global SSTA came in ever so slightly cooler at .41C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 NCDC comes in at the 4th warmest July. This is a drastic difference from the 9th warmest July on GISS. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 RSS up to 0.35 for July warmest this year. Little bit of role reversal for RSS + GISS. 2014 1 0.26162014 2 0.16182014 3 0.21452014 4 0.25142014 5 0.28582014 6 0.34462014 7 0.3503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 RSS up to 0.35 for July warmest this year. Little bit of role reversal for RSS + GISS. 2014 1 0.2616 2014 2 0.1618 2014 3 0.2145 2014 4 0.2514 2014 5 0.2858 2014 6 0.3446 2014 7 0.3503 Shows how having the poles in the data source can make a pretty large difference on a monthly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 Shows how having the poles in the data source can make a pretty large difference on a monthly basis. It's more than just the poles, in this case. There are also notable differences over the oceans, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 For the ocean, the July global sea surface temperature was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), tying with 2009 as the warmest July on record. Orbital Drift? More orbital drift? Even more orbital drift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's more than just the poles, in this case. There are also notable differences over the oceans, once again. Graphics? I'm talking about UAH v RSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 From the main ENSO thread. Having even a weak to moderate NINO central or East based in terms of global temps in Fall-Spring means the NH ssts won't drop much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Graphics? I'm talking about UAH v RSS. I thought you were referencing the July anomaly between NCDC/GISS. The numbers are readily available...just adjust for the different baselines used. UAH covers a bit more of the Arctic than RSS, but the differences in their temperature trends are largely due to other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 From the main ENSO thread. Having even a weak to moderate NINO central or East based in terms of global temps in Fall-Spring means the NH ssts won't drop much at all. What makes you say that? Didn't happen in 2009 despite the Niño. The reason for the late-summer peak in the NH SSTA appears to be related to loss of sea ice and expanded Hadley Cells, leading to reduced wind/cloudiness over the high latitude waters. This can be verified in the CERES data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The vortex over the NPAC has had only a minimal effect on ssts there. Now with ridge displaced further South. Big warm ssts are blowing in the 25-40N belt where there is much more surface area. A stout ridge has developed over the South central NATL as well where a new band of warm ssts is emerging. The Indian Ocean has steadily warmed or held it's ground. Don't be surprised if we stay above .40C+ the next week even with ENSO cooling at the surface. But the sub-surface is warming again. The SOND period is looking like it could be a record warm one. Weatherbell monthly is at 0.10C+ with the dailies running around the same. Don't be surprised if it warms up with the big heat returning to the CONUS. This is from GAWX in the main nino thread. big inplications for winter weather fans and AGW trackers. Friv, It is a go for a continued mainly -SOI period, which gets us toward the end of August. We're in the midst of the longest daily -SOI streak since March. August will almost certainly end up as the most negative -SOI month since March's -12. I'm currently thinking within the -7 to -10 range, which is negative enough to be consistent with a developing weak to perhaps lower end moderate Nino. The 0Z 8/13 Euro predicted the most recent period well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Holy Crap. That is just wild. With the AAO tanking we will likely see Weatherbell spike into the .20-.35C range as we close out the month. Global ssta for the NH set a new weekly record in back to back weeks. The most recent week was slightly cooler but it is still higher than any other anomaly as well from a different year. I think there is a good chance we go back above .80C and possibly up to .85C+ on the next update in the NH. That is getting absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Friv, I expect August and September to be close to if not record warm due to the higher northern hemispheric temperatures. Here is a nice new graph Weatherbell has for free using a smoothed 48 hour mean for the CFSv2. With the AAO tanking and a likely EKW bubbling up by mid September in the ENSO region, this upcoming SON period will probably break records and be enough to pull 2014 to a global record on most if not all surface datasets, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Friv, I expect August and September to be close to if not record warm due to the higher northern hemispheric temperatures. Here is a nice new graph Weatherbell has for free using a smoothed 48 hour mean for the CFSv2. With the AAO tanking and a likely EKW bubbling up by mid September in the ENSO region, this upcoming SON period will probably break records and be enough to pull 2014 to a global record on most if not all surface datasets, IMHO. Yeah it shows the dailies well up there in the .16C range right now with August right at .10C normally equal to about a .65C on giss. Just keeps getting nastier. The NPAC and NATL are incredible in terms of the spatial coverage of the above normal ssts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Weatherbell dailies have shot up to .28C+ now. A giss equivalent of .83C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The NPAC continues to explode in heat in incredible fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 The NPAC continues to explode in heat in incredible fashion. Weatherbell is up to .36C+ on the daily today and 0.117C+ on the month. Or a daily GISS equivalent of .91C+ and a monthly of .67C+ so far. Obviously the monthly is going to keep rising fast for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 GLOBAL SSTS HAVE SMASHED THEIR OWN RECORD AGAIN. Now slightly above .44C+ for the week. On top of that the Indian ocean at large has also started to warm up. This is the third record setting week for global ssts this year. This marks the fifth record setting week for the NH ssts this year. Both set their warmest anomalies on record this past week. To add fuel to the burning flames the kelvin wave continues to press Eastward enhancing another pool of above normal warmth heading for the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Friv, Can you post the graph of SSTs going back to 1997 or so? I'd just like to see the current spike in context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Friv, Can you post the graph of SSTs going back to 1997 or so? I'd just like to see the current spike in context. Here is a chart going back to 1990 but doesn't include the latest weekly anomaly. This week's value is noticeably higher than 1998 and 2010 despite the lack of a Niño, and the highest anomaly ever on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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