chubbs Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Global surface temperatures have been rising steadily since last La Nina and recently temperatures have been warmer in second half of year. So currently on pace for a record setting year. Note GISS in hundredths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Global surface temperatures have been rising steadily since last La Nina and recently temperatures have been warmer in second half of year. So currently on pace for a record setting year. Am I reading that right, GISS has 2014 warmer than 2011 by 14 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Am I reading that right, GISS has 2014 warmer than 2011 by 14 degrees? GISS in hundredths of a degree. Edited post to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 What is most striking about Jan-June 2014 is the ENSO state. There is definitely a return to the background warming trend. it appears the stint of a possible -AMO run has been stunted tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Here is NOAA. All three series warmed by 0.08 - 0.09C vs first 6 months last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 If the warm NPAC/NATL SSTs remain elevated/expand into the autumn despite the lengthening wave train/lack of a Niño, and the MJO remains weak, I could see a record being set on at least GISS and NCDC, perhaps HADCRUT4 as well. I'm not ruling that out. However, I don't see any supporting evidence for that right now, neither statistically nor dynamically. For the time being, I think 2014 will end up 2nd on the aggregated land surface avg, behind 2010. I'd give 50/50 of breaking on the aggregate. Thus far all three are .08-.09C warmer than the first 6 months last year, and last year only fell short by around .05 from 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 There hast be some sort of GHG NH peak insolation feedback going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 There hast be some sort of GHG NH peak insolation feedback going on. That's truly an uncanny difference between the hemispheres. The NPAC is pretty nicely explained by the "stubborn" ridge that's been sitting there for months, but I wonder what's heating the North and Central Atlantic like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's truly an uncanny difference between the hemispheres. The NPAC is pretty nicely explained by the "stubborn" ridge that's been sitting there for months, but I wonder what's heating the North and Central Atlantic like that. This has been happening every year since 2010 and appears to be more pronounced as we move forward. Southern Hemisphere SSTA will peak in the summer as well but the signal is not as strong. NH SSTA should decline into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's truly an uncanny difference between the hemispheres. The NPAC is pretty nicely explained by the "stubborn" ridge that's been sitting there for months, but I wonder what's heating the North and Central Atlantic like that. The thread I posted looks at how this sort of behavior has occurred in the past as a feedback to a warming planet..leading to serious consequences. The Hadley cells over both basins are very broad and oriented poleward of their average. Both Cells have behaving oddly in recent summers over the NH. Could definitely be a feedback to AGW, or it could be a natural oscillation of some sort, not sure which. It is assumed to have occurred in the 1930s/1940s as well. Haven't seen anything like that over the Southern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The Hadley cells over both basins are very broad and oriented poleward of their average. Both Cells have behaving oddly in recent summers over the NH. Could definitely be a feedback to AGW, or it could be a natural oscillation of some sort, not sure which. It is assumed to have occurred in the 1930s/1940s as well. Haven't seen anything like that over the Southern Hemisphere. Just thinking out loud, the troposphere temperature hasn't increased as much as modeled too at the current CO2 levels. The Hadley cells have been unusually large. Could the Hadley cells be dispersing CO2 induced tropospheric heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 That's truly an uncanny difference between the hemispheres. The NPAC is pretty nicely explained by the "stubborn" ridge that's been sitting there for months, but I wonder what's heating the North and Central Atlantic like that. Spurious. Perhaps it should be thoroughly investigated and debunked in a peer-reviewed paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Spurious. Perhaps it should be thoroughly investigated and debunked in a peer-reviewed paper. It's pretty challenging to debunk empirical observations. Assuming you were posting in jest. The cold pockets just tend to linger where most people live or around the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Weatherbell finished with an anomaly of +0.05. Most likely we see a July GISS anomaly between +0.60-+0.65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Can we get to .40C+ on the weeklies next week? There is going to be a big blow back come SON. Might average .75C+ on GISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Re: the NH anomaly, this is getting a big off topic regarding current global temps, but was reading discussion about the Hadley cells and Earth's climate in the past and it has been suggested that from ~30 My to ~3 My ago the SH had the 3-cell configuration currently seen today but the NH had a more equable climate with 1 cell only. During this period Antarctica had an ice cap whereas Greenland was ice free. Of course this was before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama, but as the planet warms, one would still expect the NH to return to equable conditions much sooner than the SH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Re: the NH anomaly, this is getting a big off topic regarding current global temps, but was reading discussion about the Hadley cells and Earth's climate in the past and it has been suggested that from ~30 My to ~3 My ago the SH had the 3-cell configuration currently seen today but the NH had a more equable climate with 1 cell only. During this period Antarctica had an ice cap whereas Greenland was ice free. Of course this was before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama, but as the planet warms, one would still expect the NH to return to equable conditions much sooner than the SH. If you get time can you post what one cell looks like? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Weatherbell updated at least for me finally. We are starting August around 0.13C. Starting this month with near or record SSTA probably leans that August will be another top 5 warmest month on the surface record charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Global SSTA's have passed 2013. Now around .385C+. This is 3-4 weeks earlier than the 2013 peak. And it's probably not over. Weatherbell monthly so far is 0.152C+ with the dailies around .175C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Global SSTA's have passed 2013. Now around .385C+. This is 3-4 weeks earlier than the 2013 peak. And it's probably not over. Weatherbell monthly so far is 0.152C+ with the dailies around .175C+ This August is very likely to break the monthly record for SSTa again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 UAH comes it at 0.31 for July. Good for the 5th warmest July for the dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 RSS came in at .35C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 This August is very likely to break the monthly record for SSTa again. With 4 days of data in? Seems way too early to say. I will say that with the blocking high pressure over much of the Arctic over the next 7+ days, we will see increased throughiness over parts of the North Pacific and north Atlantic, and will likely seeing some cooling in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 With 4 days of data in? Seems way too early to say. I will say that with the blocking high pressure over much of the Arctic over the next 7+ days, we will see increased throughiness over parts of the North Pacific and north Atlantic, and will likely seeing some cooling in spots. You are right, it's a premature call. Here is what I basing my assessment on, however. The August monthly average was higher than the week one SST level 7 out of the last 10 years. While this is not a full indicator of whats to come, I think it's fair to say that I'm playing the odds of a later august/early September SST peak. I'm betting on a horse that is way ahead of the pack out of the gate and is statistically proven to finish strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 You are right, it's a premature call. Here is what I basing my assessment on, however. The August monthly average was higher than the week one SST level 7 out of the last 10 years. While this is not a full indicator of whats to come, I think it's fair to say that I'm playing the odds of a later august/early September SST peak. I'm betting on a horse that is way ahead of the pack out of the gate and is statistically proven to finish strong. Fair enough. But we can definitely say that part of the reason the SSTAs in the NH are so warm is due to persistent patterns...if those change (and what we're seeing now is something of a change), that could definitely cause cooling from current levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 7, 2014 Author Share Posted August 7, 2014 Very weird looking SSTAs. The NH is torching, while the SH is about average. Question is what caused the sudden spike this summer? It's reflected in the CERES radiation data too, big jump in OLR, actually set the NH record by a wide margin. http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php It's to the point now where the NH is now emitting more than it's receiving, which is unusual at this stage of orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Thru a little over 6 days for August Weatherbell is at .152C for the monthly and just under .20C for the last daily update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Weatherbell dailies have shot up to .24C or so and the monthly is up to .157C thru the first week. The August record for GISS is .68C in 1998 and 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 The W Southern Hemisphere waters have warmed up a bit. The NATL has cooled slightly. So .40C+ may not happen but it will be close. Either way the Earth is torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Very weird looking SSTAs. The NH is torching, while the SH is about average. Question is what caused the sudden spike this summer? It's reflected in the CERES radiation data too, big jump in OLR, actually set the NH record by a wide margin. http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php It's to the point now where the NH is now emitting more than it's receiving, which is unusual at this stage of orbit. I wonder how much of this is due to relatively stable weather over NH oceans. Wind and storm systems churn surface heat out, without any major action, surface temps start to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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