2014 Global Temperatures

[tacoman25]

The Cowtan and Way method too has its own issues...they either kringe land data or infill satellite data over polar ocean areas rather than use OISST data. I'm not sure why they would choose to kringe land temps or use data from 3,000 meters high over water where satellite SST is available....while this didn't make a huge difference in the arctic (which is where most of the commentary was focused), it makes a significant difference over the southern ocean...it severely lessens the southern ocean cooling trend when you replace with TLT data or kringing land data.

 

 

The Arctic isn't the only problem, though. GISS uses ERSST3 for ocean skin temperatures, while HADCRUT/NCDC use HADSST/Reynolds. This is actually responsible for most of the divergence between GISS and HADCRUT/NCDC. I verified this by supplementing satellite data over the Arctic domain into all three datasets, and found the arctic data actually made very little difference post-2005, if any.

GISS was actually closer to NCDC/HADCRUT before it made the switch to ERSST. I don't know why GISS did this, as I personally think it's a less efficient incorporation method.

 

Every time these points are made, they are virtually ignored.

[Bhs1975]

What thoughts do you have on the deeper ocean's impact, if any, on the top 100 meters? 

 

http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/heatcontentchange_26dec2013_ph.pdf

What thoughts do you have on the deeper ocean's impact, if any, on the top 100 meters? 

 

http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/heatcontentchange_26dec2013_ph.pdf

Looks like its stair stepping so we may be in a 25 year hiatus.

[nflwxman]

Every time these points are made, they are virtually ignored.

I actually did the same statistical analysis as SOC.  While the ENSO region does contain a difference, I find the arctic/africa missing data from HadCrut4 weighs more heavily on the overall global anomaly than the tropics.  Remember, you can't just look at the anomalies in the tropics and the arctic and compare the two and call it a day- you need to weight it by the amount of area each area takes up.  Not all regions are "equal" on that basis.  It's nonsensical to think the missing arctic data from Hadcrut4 caused "no difference" between Hadley and NASA.  Cowtan and Way accounted for their respective spatial domains in their analysis.

 

SOC makes a solid point about the difference between GISS and HadCrut4 in their respective tropic ocean anomalies.  They are quite different, but that's only a small portion of the difference of the global anomaly spatially.  

 

As far as Will's point- It's all fair critique, but I still find it hard to believe that no data is better than extrapolation in any instance.  The problem lies in the uncertainty of the data in such a short time period, which reinforces the point that we should not be looking at the last 10 or so years with any broad brush conclusions.

[nflwxman]

Looks like its stair stepping so we may be in a 25 year hiatus.

I highly doubt there will be a 25 year hiatus in surface temperatures.  Ocean or land.

[Jonger]

Using this, we are almost certain to flat line or fall. Amazing how drastic of a rise 1910 to 1950 was, with little co2 as well. It shouldn't take many more year to figure out the next step.

 

10ppm caused almost the same rise as the 75ppm between 1970 through 2014.

 

 

[tacoman25]

I actually did the same statistical analysis as SOC.  While the ENSO region does contain a difference, I find the arctic/africa missing data from HadCrut4 weighs more heavily on the overall global anomaly than the tropics.  Remember, you can't just look at the anomalies in the tropics and the arctic and compare the two and call it a day- you need to weight it by the amount of area each area takes up.  Not all regions are "equal" on that basis.  It's nonsensical to think the missing arctic data from Hadcrut4 caused "no difference" between Hadley and NASA.  Cowtan and Way accounted for their respective spatial domains in their analysis.

 

SOC makes a solid point about the difference between GISS and HadCrut4 in their respective tropic ocean anomalies.  They are quite different, but that's only a small portion of the difference of the global anomaly spatially.  

 

As far as Will's point- It's all fair critique, but I still find it hard to believe that no data is better than extrapolation in any instance.  The problem lies in the uncertainty of the data in such a short time period, which reinforces the point that we should not be looking at the last 10 or so years with any broad brush conclusions.

 

Right...and the tropics are a significantly larger region than the Arctic. Along with the southern ocean, which GISS's method has as much warmer.

[ORH_wxman]

Using this, we are almost certain to flat line or fall. Amazing how drastic of a rise 1910 to 1950 was, with little co2 as well. It shouldn't take many more year to figure out the next step.

 

10ppm caused almost the same rise as the 75ppm between 1970 through 2014.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How is using that make it "almost certain to flat line or fall"?

 

 

If we completely ignore that we have a backround positive forcing that is stronger than any previous year on that graph...then you might make sense. Otherwise, no.

[nflwxman]

Right...and the tropics are a significantly larger region than the Arctic. Along with the southern ocean, which GISS's method has as much warmer.

I would suggest you do the analysis yourself.  GISS and HadCrut4 are different in the tropics, but HadCrut4 has no data in the arctic period, so it has no weighting at all.  I'm not saying GISS is superior in what it measures in tandem with Hadley, i'm saying that the missing data makes a big difference.  Cowtan and Way only did their analysis with Hadley, they only mentioned GISS in passing.  It changed the Hadcrut4 15 year trend from 0.065 C/decade to 0.12 C/decade. 

[nflwxman]

Using this, we are almost certain to flat line or fall. Amazing how drastic of a rise 1910 to 1950 was, with little co2 as well. It shouldn't take many more year to figure out the next step.

 

10ppm caused almost the same rise as the 75ppm between 1970 through 2014.

 

 

Lol.

 

The PDO has flipped to negative, 75% all months since 2008 have been ENSO negative.  Solar has been and century lows.  We haven't dropped in temperature yet, it ain't happening.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I want to highlight that the analysis I did only focused on the post-2005 divergence between GISS and the NCDC/HADCRUT4 compilations upon GISS's switch to ERSST. I'll try to dig it up and post it here, but I don't have access to that computer at this moment. However, I did attain very conclusive results, in my opinion.

The satellite data I used was processed by UAH. Post-2005, there isn't any statistically significant warming within the Arctic domain on UAH to begin with, hence the addition of that data to the NCDC/HADCRUT4 compilations made essentially no difference. Whatever Cowtan/Way et al did, it did not involve satellite observations.

By far, the largest diversions between GISS and NCDC/HADCRUT4 post-2005 occurred over the southern ocean, tropical pacific and tropical/southern Atlantic oceans. This accounted for a large majority of the divergence, but was only the case after the switch to ERSST. So in my view that is the clear culprit for the divergence, rather than some funny business in the Arctic.

[skierinvermont]

The 2009-10 event was a fairly recent, very potent Nino. Would it have beaten 1998 if it were > +2.0c? Possibly. If it did, it's still difficult to isolate causation variables and their corresponding percentage influences. 

 

On GISS 2010 is tied for 2005 as warmest year on record (both warmer than 1998).

 

On HadCRUT4 2010 stands alone as the warmest year on record.

 

On NCDC 2010 stands alone as the warmest year on record.

 

Conservatively, a 1998 El Nino event in 2010 would have been another .1C warmer, thus widening the margin on these temperature sources.

 

 

On UAH, 2010 was a hair cooler than 1998 (by .02C), but a 1998 El Nino would have produced, conservatively, another .2C of warming. Again blowing away all previous years by far. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

SSTS have really blown up all around NA.

 

ENSO continues to cool out West.

 

The entire water exchange from NE to Baffin is roasting.

 

The NH ssts are getting absurd every Summer.

[tacoman25]

For the Pacific, it's clear the SSTAs have been aided by the persistent pattern this year of ridging over much of the North Pacific, and lower heights over much of inland North America.

 

Which has produced this anomaly over the U.S.

 

 

[GaWx]

For the Pacific, it's clear the SSTAs have been aided by the persistent pattern this year of ridging over much of the North Pacific, and lower heights over much of inland North America.

 

Which has produced this anomaly over the U.S.

 

 

YearTDeptUS.png

 

 The chicken/egg debate is always interesting when it comes to SST anomaly patterns and associated prevalent weather patterns. I'm talking about way more than just when analyzing AGW related issues.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well wake me when the "cold" ssta pattern comes back.

[tacoman25]

Well wake me when the "cold" ssta pattern comes back.

 

For the North Pacific, the -PDO/+NPI phase favors ridging in general.

[Isotherm]

For the Pacific, it's clear the SSTAs have been aided by the persistent pattern this year of ridging over much of the North Pacific, and lower heights over much of inland North America.

 

Which has produced this anomaly over the U.S.

 

 

YearTDeptUS.png

 

 

 

Agree. It's a pattern that essentially began almost exactly a year ago. I believe the initial causation was upward propagating Rossby wave activity, originating in the WPAC. But once the regime of strong mid level ridging developed over the NPAC, SST's responded accordingly, and has created a positive feedback cycle in which the +SSTA signal continues to bolster NPAC ridges and -EPO's. This type of regime is actually a pretty classic +ENSO precursor, as seen before the El Nino of 2009-10 in the 2008-09 period (see the strong -EPO) and 1993-94, preceding the 94-95 Nino.

 

Very warm SST's all across the northern hemisphere have very likely been a factor in the heightened global temperatures over the past several months.

 

[Jonger]

I would be lying if I said that I wanted the pattern to reverse.

[tacoman25]

Agree. It's a pattern that essentially began almost exactly a year ago. I believe the initial causation was upward propagating Rossby wave activity, originating in the WPAC. But once the regime of strong mid level ridging developed over the NPAC, SST's responded accordingly, and has created a positive feedback cycle in which the +SSTA signal continues to bolster NPAC ridges and -EPO's. This type of regime is actually a pretty classic +ENSO precursor, as seen before the El Nino of 2009-10 in the 2008-09 period (see the strong -EPO) and 1993-94, preceding the 94-95 Nino.

 

Very warm SST's all across the northern hemisphere have very likely been a factor in the heightened global temperatures over the past several months.

 

 

Just amazing SSTA difference between NH/SH.

[nflwxman]

Hadley agrees with NCDC on the warmest June globally by a good amount.  Since GISS infills arctic data coverage, it was likely cooled by the arctic and only came in as the 3rd warmest June.  All surface data sets are on pace to break their global temperature records in 2014 barring a return to La Nina conditions. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssts warmed again last week in spite of ENSO cooling.

 

Now back up to .35C+ for the first time in 2014.  Only one week at the end of August in 2013 was warmer globally.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Hadley agrees with NCDC on the warmest June globally by a good amount. Since GISS infills arctic data coverage, it was likely cooled by the arctic and only came in as the 3rd warmest June. All surface data sets are on pace to break their global temperature records in 2014 barring a return to La Nina conditions.

There's a lot more that goes into global temperature variations than ENSO, including the tropical-stratospheric interactions through the QBO and external forcing on the annular modes which influences the Rossby train and the BDC...so I'd argue that a record is anything but certain. I've seen this play out enough times to make me cautious about predicting a record...I actually don't think it will happen without at least a moderate El Niño.

[nflwxman]

There's a lot more that goes into global temperature variations than ENSO, including the tropical-stratospheric interactions through the QBO and external forcing on the annular modes which influences the Rossby train and the BDC...so I'd argue that a record is anything but certain. I've seen this play out enough times to make me cautious about predicting a record...I actually don't think it will happen without at least a moderate El Niño.

You are preaching to the choir. We all know there is a lot more to do with Global temperature than just ENSO, TSI, ect.  One of the largest drivers is essentially how much land is taken up with high heights versus low heights.  There are no guarantees in weather or climate, but it's true that all surface datasets are on pace for a global temperature record.

 

SSTs are currently at almost a record high while 3.4 sputters near zero. Based on that alone, I believe that all 3 surface datasets will break their global temperature record, albeit by a small amount.  Any nino that bubbles up this fall will actually impact 2015 quite a bit more than this year.

[StudentOfClimatology]

If the warm NPAC/NATL SSTs remain elevated/expand into the autumn despite the lengthening wave train/lack of a Niño, and the MJO remains weak, I could see a record being set on at least GISS and NCDC, perhaps HADCRUT4 as well. I'm not ruling that out.

However, I don't see any supporting evidence for that right now, neither statistically nor dynamically. For the time being, I think 2014 will end up 2nd on the aggregated land surface avg, behind 2010.

[Jonger]

Looks like SSTA are going to peak at the exact same time as last year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Why would 2014 be colder than 2013 in the SOND period?

 

Its likely to be about .60C+ or higher on GIS for July.  .65 to .70C+ on Hadcrut and NCDC. 

 

Unless August tanks the SOND period should be sufficient enough.

[nflwxman]

Looks like SSTA are going to peak at the exact same time as last year.

Not if a Nino is realized.  They could peak a bit later this time around.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not if a Nino is realized.  They could peak a bit later this time around.

 

And or be steady at  a warmer level.

 

There is way more thermal intertia in the LT right now than in 2013.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Not if a Nino is realized. They could peak a bit later this time around.

Even if a Niño is realized they'll still probably peak in August or early September, like they did in 2009 despite the developing Niño.

The high latitudes are warming faster than the tropics and feature a clear maximum in late summer due to sea ice loss and broadening Hadley Cells. As we enter Autumn, sea ice expands and the Hadley Cells contract, which dilutes the anomaly.

[tacoman25]

Not if a Nino is realized.  They could peak a bit later this time around.

 

No sign of that occurring.

 

At this point, if one does develop, it probably won't be until early fall. In which case the LT effects wouldn't really be felt until very late in the year.