2014 Global Temperatures

[SVT450R]

Wxbell dailies .018+ month is a .071+

[nflwxman]

NCDC agrees with GISS- Warmest May on Record

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/5

[SVT450R]

I think the wxbell climate site is not paywalled anymore, so anyone can check out the graph.

True good to know i pay so i wouldn't know.

[The_Global_Warmer]

With AMSU Channel 6 running the warmest on record. NCDC and GISS pummeling monthly records.  UAH finally jumping up.

 

 

 

 

With records dating back to 1880, the combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces reached a record high for May, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) higher than the 20^th century average. This surpassed the previous record high anomaly of 0.72°C (1.30°F) set in 2010. Four of the five warmest Mays on record have occurred in the past five years: 2010 (second warmest), 2012 (third warmest), 2013 (fifth warmest), and 2014 (warmest); currently, 1998 has the fourth warmest May on record. Additionally, May 2014 marked the 39^th consecutive May and 351^st consecutive month (more than 29 years) with a global temperature above the 20^th century average. The last below-average global temperature for May occurred in 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month occurred in February 1985.

The average land surface temperature for the globe was the fourth highest for May in the 135-year period of record, at 1.13°C (2.03°F) higher than average. The seven warmest Mays over land have all been observed during the 21^st century, with the four warmest occurring since 2010. At the hemispheric scale, while the Northern Hemisphere land areas were sixth warmest for that particular region of the globe, the Southern Hemisphere land was record warm for May, surpassing the previous highest May temperature (set in 2002) by 0.17°C (0.31°F).

 

 

 

Global ssta have also jumped way up.

 

 

 

.35C+ in June is incredible.  I would say it's 99% certain we are in unprecedented territory global ssta wise for this time of year ENSO or not.

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

ORH_wxman, on 19 Nov 2013 - 1:25 PM, said:

1990 was ENSO neutral and broke a record. That was the last one to break a record in a non-Nino year. 2014 won't break a record unless we develop a late Nino this winter and somehow sustain it. The first half of the year will end up too cold otherwise.

On what basis can you claim it will be too cold?  Based on the global temperatures in the past few winters?

 

Let's look at the past 6 years (since 2008) winters and ENSO:

 

2008: Strong La Nina impacting the winter

2009: Weak La Nina conditions 

2010: Strong El Nino conditions- warmest Jan-April conditions globally by a good amount

2011: Strong La Nina conditions

2012: Weak La Nina conditions

2013: First half of the winter ENSO positive, Second half ENSO negative

 

I'll let her roll right here.  It seemed pretty clear there was at least some possibility for a global temperature in 2014 even without a bonified Nino (Just ONI positive neutral).  While it's early, it appears that doesn't seem far off.  

[ORH_wxman]

 

ORH_wxman, on 19 Nov 2013 - 1:25 PM, said:

 

I'll let her roll right here.  It seemed pretty clear there was at least some possibility for a global temperature in 2014 even without a bonified Nino (Just ONI positive neutral).  While it's early, it appears that doesn't seem far off.

 

 

 

ENSO developed pretty darn early this year (April was about on par with 1997)...so my caveat is actually occurring. Though I will admit it has been warmer early on than I expected. We'll see how warm the summer is and we'll see how much revision occurs on GISS throughout the year....I predicted a 0.64 anomaly on GISS which is only a bit below the record of 0.66.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42371-predict-the-2014-global-temperature-anomaly/?p=2679147

[nflwxman]

ENSO developed pretty darn early this year (April was about on par with 1997)...so my caveat is actually occurring. Though I will admit it has been warmer early on than I expected. We'll see how warm the summer is and we'll see how much revision occurs on GISS throughout the year....I predicted a 0.64 anomaly on GISS which is only a bit below the record of 0.66.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42371-predict-the-2014-global-temperature-anomaly/?p=2679147

I think we might all bust low except for Weatherguy and his 0.71.  If an El Nino develops, things should get very toasty late summer even compared to now. 

[AvantHiatus]

I think we might all bust low except for Weatherguy and his 0.71.  If an El Nino develops, things should get very toasty late summer even compared to now. 

If I recall, PhillipS was also around 0.70C. That prediction of 0.71 was trend adjusted because la nina and neutral years are progressively warmer. Global SSTA has also been elevated from the start, definitely not helping.

[GaWx]

 In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

 http://www.tropicalt...ysis/nino34.png

 

 The TAO buoys never warmed much above +0.5 C in 3.4. NOAA pretty much went with temperature anomalies consistent with the buoys. This kind of discrepancy makes me wonder about the reliability of satellite based temp.'s in general when trying to assess AGW. 

[ORH_wxman]

 In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

 http://www.tropicalt...ysis/nino34.png

 

 The TAO buoys never warmed much above +0.5 C in 3.4. NOAA pretty much went with temperature anomalies consistent with the buoys. This kind of discrepancy makes me wonder about the reliability of satellite based temp.'s in general when trying to asses AGW. 

 

 

The satellites will have some trouble with the SSTs with significant cloud cover...but this is usually transient and localized. Globally, it doesn't seem to be a big problem...but on shorter timescales of a week over a specialized region like 3.4 nino, it can have its issues. At least this is how I have understood it reading over satellite-based SST data.

[GaWx]

The satellites will have some trouble with the SSTs with significant cloud cover...but this is usually transient and localized. Globally, it doesn't seem to be a big problem...but on shorter timescales of a week over a specialized region like 3.4 nino, it can have its issues. At least this is how I have understood it reading over satellite-based SST data.

 

Will,

 But wouldn't that transient trouble with sig. cloud cover mean a cold bias rather than a warm bias on the satellites? If that is the case, how do you explain the transient strong and sudden warming and cool back of 0.7 on CDAS satellite based temp. graphs that totally disagreed with the TAO buoys, which held pretty steady and is where NOAA went with yesterday's weekly update? A similar thing occurred in Nov. of 2012.

[ORH_wxman]

Will,

 But wouldn't that transient trouble with sig. cloud cover mean a cold bias rather than a warm bias on the satellites? If that is the case, how do you explain the transient strong and sudden warming/cooling of 0.7 on CDAS satellite based temp. graphs?

 

 

I don't know what the bias would be...if there is warmer rain falling over a region of the eastern Pacific which is normally inhabited by colder SSTs, it could bias it warm...but that is just a WAG as I'm not certain how the exact measuring alogrithms work and at which altitude the clouds/rain would be a problem.

[nflwxman]

UAH at .3 for the month of June. Good for the 4th warmest June.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH at .3 for the month of June. Good for the 4th warmest June.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

 

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 18 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009

2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190

2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031

2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020

2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057

2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029

2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103

2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001

2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092

2014 5 +0.327 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175

2014 6 +0.303 +0.315 +0.290 +0.509

 

 

 

 

The tropics were very warm and on UAH that covers 20S to 20N.  NH and SH cover 0-85N/S so the tropics are factored into both.  So clearly they were both cooler away from the equatorial regions.

 

With the potential ENSO falling to crap.  The potential for the big .4+ SSTA will be tougher and probably confined to the August-September period. 

 

A lot of OHC is still being dumped into the atmosphere but now more will clearly stay in the oceans unless something abruptly changes which doesn't look likely.

 

This probably eliminates UAH from any chance of a 2014 record because it would need a run of big months to end the year.  While I expect mostly .30C+ the rest of the year that is obviously not enough.

 

I do think GISS and NCDC will still both set new records. 

 

I am near 100 percent sure about GISS.

 

 

 

 

The weeklies are about .35C.  Tisdale didn't update the current value on this graphic.

 

 

 

The weekly Global sea surface temperature anomalies had been basically above an anomaly of 0.3 deg C for more than 13 weeks.  They are presently about +0.35 deg C.

 

 

 

 

Currently Weatherbell shows sharp cooling because Antarctica is in the deep freeze.

[nflwxman]

HadSST3 (Met Office) quietly reported their warmest sea surface anomaly of all time last month.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

HadSST3 (Met Office) quietly reported their warmest sea surface anomaly of all time last month.

 

 

 

Is hadSST3 the same as Hadcrut4?

 

or is there a hadsst4 as well?

 

Just wondering.  I don't know much about Hadcrut except that it was revised warmer recently in the arctic from had3 to had4 IIRC.

 

Global ssta are running very warm even tho NINO has totally failed.

 

Pretty much thanks to very warm NH conditions again during our summer.

 

[GaWx]

HadSST3 (Met Office) quietly reported their warmest sea surface anomaly of all time last month.

 

 

nflwxman,

 How trustworthy is Hadsst3? After the very recent confusion/instability of CDAS satellite based ENSO SST's, is anyone wondering about this at least a little bit?

[ORH_wxman]

nflwxman,

 How trustworthy is Hadsst3? After the very recent confusion/instability of CDAS satellite based ENSO SST's, is anyone wondering about this at least a little bit?

 

 

That graph is actually pretty cool in how obvious the 1877-1878 monster El Nino is.

[nflwxman]

nflwxman,

 How trustworthy is Hadsst3? After the very recent confusion/instability of CDAS satellite based ENSO SST's, is anyone wondering about this at least a little bit?

Hadsst3 uses direct measurements (and contour interpolation) and not remote sensing to derive the SSTs.  A lot of the issues arise with this type of approach as their is quite a bit of missed data points throughout the world that can bias the short term temperature trends.

 

Friv,

 

Hadsst3 is part of HadCrut4 and was a big portion of the upgrade from HadCrut3.  We are still missing large portions of the arctic and africa despite this upgrade.  The image below outlines the issue graphically.

 

[nflwxman]

That graph is actually pretty cool in how obvious the 1877-1878 monster El Nino is.

Yeah.  I wonder how much of that is measurement bias at the time. 

[Jonger]

The bigger mystery is how they got those sea surface temps with no measurements over most of the ocean. Data was sparse in the 1980's, let alone the 1880's.

[nflwxman]

HadSST3 uses a mix of proxies (corals, ect) and ship observations prior to 1910 for the most part.  Land based observations used mostly meteorological stations, even at that time.  Notice how large the error bars are prior to 1920.

 

http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/research/earthtemp/themes/1_in_situ_satellite/Morice_EarthTemp_Edinburgh_2012_Poster.pdf

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah.  I wonder how much of that is measurement bias at the time. 

 

 

There's some interesting literature on the 1877-1878 El Nino...it is believed that it could have been nearly on par with the '97-'98 Nino. There was also a Super El Nino in 1888-1889...though not as strong as the 1877-1878 one...at least as much as one can gather from the limited data at the time.

 

The 1877-1878 Nino had some ridiculous regional effects. Many of the northern plains states stations that have records back that far had their warmest winter on record that year...and by a lot. Crushing anything recently which is amazing for that time period. It also caused widespread famine in Brazil and Asia with the reduced rainfall. (it is estimate that 20 million people may have starved to death from this event)

 

The actual values for a single year have large errors bars and definitely should be taken with a grain of salt...but there is no doubt that there was a large spike in temps that year...and in general around that time as all 3 global datasets show a strong 30 year cooling trend from roughly 1880-1910, and not just on SSTs. There was some assistance of a large peak in the postive phase of the AMO in the 1870s as well which declined rapidly around 1900 and went severely negative by 1910.

[GaWx]

There's some interesting literature on the 1877-1878 El Nino...it is believed that it could have been nearly on par with the '97-'98 Nino. There was also a Super El Nino in 1888-1889...though not as strong as the 1877-1878 one...at least as much as one can gather from the limited data at the time.

 

The 1877-1878 Nino had some ridiculous regional effects. Many of the northern plains states stations that have records back that far had their warmest winter on record that year...and by a lot. Crushing anything recently which is amazing for that time period. It also caused widespread famine in Brazil and Asia with the reduced rainfall. (it is estimate that 20 million people may have starved to death from this event)

 

The actual values for a single year have large errors bars and definitely should be taken with a grain of salt...but there is no doubt that there was a large spike in temps that year...and in general around that time as all 3 global datasets show a strong 30 year cooling trend from roughly 1880-1910, and not just on SSTs. There was some assistance of a large peak in the postive phase of the AMO in the 1870s as well which declined rapidly around 1900 and went severely negative by 1910.

 

Will,

 Don't forget that 1880-1910 was also a pretty weak period for the sun. I have wondered for awhile if a large portion of the 1880-1910 cooling trend could have been due to the weak sun.

[StudentOfClimatology]

But the sea ice is just the result of a calibration problem... Its really not the result of cold SST or air-masses....

/sarcasm

I lol'ed, but don't harmonize with your stance on climate change

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

is it just me, or does it seem like the north-east could be heading towards one of the coolest summers on record.

[nflwxman]

NASA comes in at 0.64 for June. Which is good for the 2nd warmest June. As many pointed out throughout the years, June appears to be the month that has warmed the slowest historically.

GISS would have to register 0.68 the rest of the year to break a record. At this point, this seems like a greater than 50% probability

 

[AvantHiatus]

is it just me, or does it seem like the north-east could be heading towards one of the coolest summers on record.

Sharp gradient, slightly above average-summer here. The cold fronts bleed east and die out. KPHL reached it's first 90-degree day 1.5 months before KLGA.

[StudentOfClimatology]

is it just me, or does it seem like the north-east could be heading towards one of the coolest summers on record.

We've had some bursts of 97-99 degree heat down in DC, and are running above avg this summer...but nothing too sustained yet.

You NE'ers don't get heat like we do

[The_Global_Warmer]

NASA comes in at 0.64 for June. Which is good for the 2nd warmest June. As many pointed out throughout the years, June appears to be the month that has warmed the slowest historically.

GISS would have to register 0.68 the rest of the year to break a record. At this point, this seems like a greater than 50% probability

As blizzard said best above, this is consistent with a non warming world

 

RSS had a .3448C June.  Not sure how RSS ranks on the year.  But I would assume it's one of the warmer Junes on record.

2014   1    0.26172014   2    0.16172014   3    0.21442014   4    0.25152014   5    0.28592014   6    0.34482014   7  -99.90002014   8  -99.90002014   9  -99.90002014  10  -99.90002014  11  -99.90002014  12  -99.9000