Jonger Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So the Argo data is being manipulated too? No, but it is adjusted upward and that adjustment took a steep incline to a flat line almost immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 No, but it is adjusted upward and that adjustment took a steep incline to a flat line almost immediately. So what is your point? Also, as explained many times to you before, there is sufficient data to form statistically significant estimates of OHC rise since mid 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 CFS dailies have hit .30C now and the monthlies up to .081C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Getting to .30 and above in a negative neutral ENSO state is enough proof that OHC is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Getting to .30 and above in a negative neutral ENSO state is enough proof that OHC is rising. Huh? OHC rising fast would actually help suppress sfc temps...as the ocean is taking up the heat rather than it going into warming the atmosphere. At least that has been the basis of papers that have attributed at least some of the slowdown in warming in the past 12+ years to ocean heat uptake down to 2000m and even below that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Getting to .30 and above in a negative neutral ENSO state is enough proof that OHC is rising. You can't make that conclusion from the CFS dailies. The OHC data proves the OHC is going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Huh? OHC rising fast would actually help suppress sfc temps...as the ocean is taking up the heat rather than it going into warming the atmosphere. At least that has been the basis of papers that have attributed at least some of the slowdown in warming in the past 12+ years to ocean heat uptake down to 2000m and even below that level. Many are inclined to condemn or ignore ARGO data completely while only focusing on the land temperature records, what more do you want. We still have too many deniers and agenda pushers in the real world, who are preventing critical action. About the OHC, it would appear that last year's rapid rise is just now beginning to affect climate and is falling again as the heat enters the atmosphere. It's mind-blowing that we are only a few tenths of a degree from the 0.8c benchmark yet there is no el nino event. Assuming that you accurately extrapolate from the CFS. The only way to confirm is to wait for GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Many are inclined to condemn or ignore ARGO data completely while only focusing on the land temperature records, what more do you want. We still have too many deniers and agenda pushers in the real world, who are preventing critical action. About the OHC, it would appear that last year's rapid rise is just now beginning to affect climate and is falling again as the heat enters the atmosphere. That is because they are bias and ignorant. But that doesn't change what ORH said. But yeah you are most definitely correct about that. The latest ONI was -0.3 again. And yet we have been running near or at global records for a while now. And once again after barely getting to normal on CFS temps are back scorching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Many are inclined to condemn or ignore ARGO data completely while only focusing on the land temperature records, what more do you want. We still have too many deniers and agenda pushers in the real world, who are preventing critical action. About the OHC, it would appear that last year's rapid rise is just now beginning to affect climate and is falling again as the heat enters the atmosphere. Ignoring ARGO actually is worse for any denier than accepting it. ARGO data shows a slowing down of OHC increase. That, along with the temperature flattening, might suggest that a change in forcing is driving at least a chunk of the slowdown in the sfc temp rise...rather than the forcing remaining the same and all the extra heat is being stored into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Ignoring ARGO actually is worse for any denier than accepting it. ARGO data shows a slowing down of OHC increase. That, along with the temperature flattening, might suggest that a change in forcing is driving at least a chunk of the slowdown in the sfc temp rise...rather than the forcing remaining the same and all the extra heat is being stored into the ocean. Good post, I think the slowdown of the OHC ended in 2013 and the ARGO data does not yet reflect this completely in the longer-term trends. I have heard the recent solar minimum is causing a 10% negative forcing in radiative imbalance, perhaps not quite enough by itself to explain this trend. Probably a culmination of enhanced heat transport to the deep ocean (below ARGO's observation depth) and atmospheric sulfates caused by air pollution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Good post, I think the slowdown of the OHC ended in 2013 and the ARGO data does not yet reflect this completely in the longer-term trends. Because of a few patches of warm surface anomalies, you do realize that -EPO induced warm water spot is just surface, it could vanish in a week of turbulent weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Because of a few patches of warm surface anomalies, you do realize that -EPO induced warm water spot is just surface, it could vanish in a week of turbulent weather. SSTs are not measuring OHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Good post, I think the slowdown of the OHC ended in 2013 and the ARGO data does not yet reflect this completely in the longer-term trends. I have heard the recent solar minimum is causing a 10% negative forcing in radiative imbalance, perhaps not quite enough by itself to explain this trend. Probably a culmination of enhanced heat transport to the deep ocean (below ARGO's observation depth) and atmospheric sulfates caused by air pollution. Reformulation of distillate fuels and SCR devices have caused sulfate aerosols to plunge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I would not be surprised if that data is accurate. China is still mostly coal-based, as well as India. These countries have expanding economies in recent years and could account for some negative forcing. However since they are now releasing more carbon emissions, the additional positive forcing would cancel out the negative forcing of sulfates to some extent. The search for the "missing heat" continues. According to Hansen, current warming has been abated by about half due to particulates/aerosols. So we’d be at around 1.6 C warming now without them. Long-term warming according to paleoclimate at a constant 400 ppm CO2 is about 3-4 degrees C. It’s not yet certain that the current, large and rapid forcing caused by the initial pulse of GHG’s is enough to set off a runaway or a mini runaway. But the risk, at least for a mini runaway, is currently there (and a mini runaway is a mass extinction event). http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/06/11/world-co2-emissions-set-new-record-in-2012-at-31-6-gigatons-on-current-path-world-locks-in-dangerous-2-degree-warming-before-2029/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Somehow the CFS dailies are still around .29C. The longest sustained period of these temperatures is no longer than 15 days, at least according to last year. Let's see if they fall back to the average range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Somehow the CFS dailies are still around .29C. The longest sustained period of these temperatures is no longer than 15 days, at least according to last year. Let's see if they fall back to the average range. I thought we should see a drop by today. But it went up a bit . monthlies up to .092C now. Once the epo reloads it should cause enough cool land to slow it down back closer to normal on CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jonger your sulfur emissions graph only runs to 2000. The sulfur boom in China was after that. From 2000-present chinese coal consumption went from 1.5 to 3.8 billions tons. The lack of pollution control in China means this has big increase on sulfur emissions. Global coal consumption went from 5.3 to 8.1 billion tons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jonger your sulfur emissions graph only runs to 2000. The sulfur boom in China was after that. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-low-sulfur_diesel Thanks for alerting me to this, this chart won't capture any of the ULSD emission reductions that have taken place since the mid 2000's. This was almost 1/4th of global sulfur emissions before hand. (Oil) http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/pix/special/pollution/pollute_vitale.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jonger your sulfur emissions graph only runs to 2000. The sulfur boom in China was after that. From 2000-present chinese coal consumption went from 1.5 to 3.8 billions tons. The lack of pollution control in China means this has big increase on sulfur emissions. Global coal consumption went from 5.3 to 8.1 billion tons. We could clear this up with an updated graph I suppose... I can't find anything solid after 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Another interesting interview with Professor Wadhams, University of Cambridge. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-PITZo7qOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 CFS is up to .108C now for the month through Jan 18th 18z. The dailies are hovering between .18C and .20C the last 36 hours. This would put it at a .66C(.61-.71) on GISS. January of 2013 finished at .080C on CFS and .63C on GISS. This made it literally a .55C perfect match. Here is AMSU channel 6 temps for Jan 16th from 2003 to 2014. In parenthesis is where they ended up on UAH as an anomaly. Remember these are one day snapshots as well as them being channel 6 they have very little influence on the outcome of the monthly TLTs from UAH. Dark red = warmer Bright red = warmest Orange = middle Blue = cooler black = 2014. 01/16 237.417(.29C)237.341(.19C) 237.276(.31C) 237.105(.20C) 237.204(.42C) 236.827(-.23C) 237.072(.18C) 237.628(.56C) 237.141(.02C) 236.771(-.14C) 237.586(.50C) 237.321(???) ENSO has pulled a 180 all of a sudden. ENSO 3-4 has dramatically cooled. ENSO cooling has kept things in check big time. Global ssta reached almost .24C two weeks ago before dropping back to around .19C. The temp anomaly graphic that happens to use a 1981-2010 baseline that looks awfully like the CFS output. Shows the ENSO cooling having immediate effects on the surface. But it's TLT effects are typically 2 months down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 According to the SST anomalies map, ENSO regions made a huge jump basically overnight and this came out yesterday. This just means more heat is once again being transported to the deep ocean. I wonder how warm it is down there after years and years of negative anomalies. It's probably causing untold damage in the long run. The OHC charts tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 According to the SST anomalies map, ENSO regions made a huge jump basically overnight and this came out yesterday. This just means more heat is once again being transported to the deep ocean. I wonder how warm it is down there after years and years of negative anomalies. It's probably causing untold damage in the long run. The OHC charts tell the story. If the CFSv2 forecast were to verify, one would probably be looking at a global anomaly around +0.7°C (GISS). However, the CFSv2 has overstated temperatures e.g., the most recent week had a Region 3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C. Also, I'd be surprised if a moderate El Niño were to develop by summer as depicted on the CFSv2. I suspect conditions might begin to approach El Niño levels during the fall or winter, but that isn't assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If the CFSv2 forecast were to verify, one would probably be looking at a global anomaly around +0.7°C (GISS). However, the CFSv2 has overstated temperatures e.g., the most recent week had a Region 3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C. Also, I'd be surprised if a moderate El Niño were to develop by summer as depicted on the CFSv2. I suspect conditions might begin to approach El Niño levels during the fall or winter, but that isn't assured. Yes, I'm not ready to take the CFS verbatim at this point but I'm confident a weak el nino is guaranteed by the OND (October, November, December) period. Looking at the long range models for the rest of the month, temperatures could ultimately top out around 0.7 C. This is a key clue considering the ENSO state, it would be the warmest January on record without an el nino. As a result, we could probably observe as high as perhaps 0.8 C on GISS with a moderate el nino and god help us if we ever get a strong el nino (Sorry about the sensationalism). The elusive 1.0 C benchmark does not seem as distant anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If the CFSv2 forecast were to verify, one would probably be looking at a global anomaly around +0.7°C (GISS). However, the CFSv2 has overstated temperatures e.g., the most recent week had a Region 3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C. Also, I'd be surprised if a moderate El Niño were to develop by summer as depicted on the CFSv2. I suspect conditions might begin to approach El Niño levels during the fall or winter, but that isn't assured. The dynamical models have been pretty abysmal with ENSO the past 3 years. I know you've mentioned such at times in your discussions, but it is something I have also noted in the "off season" winter threads in the New England forum. The statistical models, which have performed much better, seem to be going for warm-neutral conditions by autumn. Though they tend to perform much better after the "spring blind spot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The dynamical models have been pretty abysmal with ENSO the past 3 years. I know you've mentioned such at times in your discussions, but it is something I have also noted in the "off season" winter threads in the New England forum. The statistical models, which have performed much better, seem to be going for warm-neutral conditions by autumn. Though they tend to perform much better after the "spring blind spot". I agree with you, Will. I suspect that it is probably more likely than not that a weak El Niño could develop toward or during the next winter. Where things stand during the summer should provide greater clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yes, I'm not ready to take the CFS verbatim at this point but I'm confident a weak el nino is guaranteed by the OND (October, November, December) period. Looking at the long range models for the rest of the month, temperatures could ultimately top out around 0.7 C. This is a key clue considering the ENSO state, it would be the warmest January on record without an el nino. As a result, we could probably observe as high as perhaps 0.8 C on GISS with a moderate el nino and god help us if we ever get a strong el nino (Sorry about the sensationalism). The elusive 1.0 C benchmark does not seem as distant anymore. Last September and November were very warm despite the absence of El Niño conditions. It will be interesting to see where things stand following January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes, I'm not ready to take the CFS verbatim at this point but I'm confident a weak el nino is guaranteed by the OND (October, November, December) period. Looking at the long range models for the rest of the month, temperatures could ultimately top out around 0.7 C. This is a key clue considering the ENSO state, it would be the warmest January on record without an el nino. As a result, we could probably observe as high as perhaps 0.8 C on GISS with a moderate el nino and god help us if we ever get a strong el nino (Sorry about the sensationalism). The elusive 1.0 C benchmark does not seem as distant anymore. 1. I think the NINO would have have 0.5C+ ONI monthlies like no later than June to have a shot at .8C Let's presume Jan-June is .60C on GISS. July threw December would have to be 1.0C. That would be really hard even with a moderate nino. I can easily see .85-.9 from July to December though. If Jan-June is .65C. THen it would have to be .95C. While OHC has gone up a lot the last 15 months. Without a huge equatorial burp of heat a jump that high will be tough. I think .7C+ if we go to positive neutral by say April/May and stay there or higher till November is sure fire. 2. I can see 1.0C on a year before 2020 if OHC say trended like it did in the 1990s. 3. As of 12zjan19 CFS is up to .112C with the dialies at .21C. Lately the warmest part of the day is the 00z update. Without a sharp drop soon January is going to possibly end up around .65 to .67C on GISS. .20 to .30C on UAH. 4. An HP moves into the arctic with cold dumping into each continent. So we should see some cooling. But at the same time a big HP over the tropical Atlantic, SATL will cause some big ocean warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm going to be honest despite some criticism I will probably receive. A big part of the record warm predictions hinges on the two-pronged effects of a build up of OHC that occurred last year and continues to happen coupled with changes in atmospheric methane. FWIW, this latest spike in OHC will also not be completely impactful until 2015. It seems that we are now setup in place for a couple of warm years. The biggest uncertainty surprisingly is not the ENSO state, at least for me. The recent increase of methane in the mid and upper latitudes along with another big year for CO2 emissions could possibly culminate in such a way that records become broken by larger margins than we are accustomed to. Causing the climate to break away quickly from the hiatus instead of slowly. Here is a comparison between last year and this year, according to methanetracker.org. There are slight differences but it is probably the largest year-to-year increase that we have observed. The small increase is compensated by the large positive forcing of methane which has GHG forcing that is 4.3 times greater than CO2 in a single year and 86 times greater than CO2 over 20 years. The IPCC reports that, over a 20-year time frame, methane has a global warming potential of 86 compared to CO2, up from its previous estimate of 72. Given that we are approaching real, irreversible tipping points in the climate system, climate studies should, at the very least, include analyses that use this 20-year time horizon. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/10/02/2708911/fracking-ipcc-methane/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not sure the obsession with OHC in here when predicting 2014 global temps. Do ya'll realize that OHC is below the surface of the oceans and we are predicting global land and ocean surface temperatures? (and lower tropospheric temperatures when looking at the satellites) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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