2014 Global Temperatures

[AvantHiatus]

Here's a more detailed article on today's volcanic eruption. Looks like the plume of ash is at least 12 miles up. Good pictures now coming in.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2644253/Incredible-moment-huge-volcano-erupts-Indonesia-sending-ash-spewing-thousands-feet-sky.html

Whether or not it affects global temperatures remains to be seen. I'm guessing this'll end up being a VE3 scale eruption.

Where does Mount Pinatubo rank on the scale?

[Msalgado]

Pinatubo was a VE6, or  ~1000 times larger than a VE3.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a more detailed article on today's volcanic eruption. Looks like the plume of ash is at least 12 miles up. Good pictures now coming in.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2644253/Incredible-moment-huge-volcano-erupts-Indonesia-sending-ash-spewing-thousands-feet-sky.html

Whether or not it affects global temperatures remains to be seen. I'm guessing this'll end up being a VE3 scale eruption.

 

 

A VEI 3 would be basically nothing for global temps. If it was a 4, then we might see a small effect.

[PhillipS]

Pinatubo was a VE6, or  ~1000 times larger than a VE3.

So it would take 1,000 volcanos of this magnitude to have roughly the same effect as Mt Pinatubo?  I wonder what the VE scale equivalent of China's aerosol pollution would be?

[The_Global_Warmer]

So it would take 1,000 volcanos of this magnitude to have roughly the same effect as Mt Pinatubo?  I wonder what the VE scale equivalent of China's aerosol pollution would be?

 

I don't know but I've seen papers showing a 3-7W/M2 drop in down welling shortwave insolation(modeled) in very localized areas.

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU channel 6 temps have sky rocketed into 2nd place only behind 2010.

 

Except UAH to come in well above .30C+ for May and probably come in above .30C+ the rest of the year each month.

 

 

Weather CFS is public again for now.  Maybe they are not allowed to sell CFS data.  I have no idea why they opened it up again.

 

The dailies are at .20C+.  So we start June at .20C+. 

 

May finished at .158C+  Or a .71C GISS equivalent.  Recently GISS has been running a bit warmer then the .55C+ we add to the weatherbell total.

 

 

 

 

 

Global ssta for May

 

 

 

Global ssta weeklies have dropped slightly back to .304C+.

 

This marks 5 weeks in a row of .30C+ and 7 of 8 wees of .30C+.  This is extremely impressive.  Equatorial warming has helped maintain this level during climo showing this is the coolest time of the year. 

 

SH SSTA have started to fall. They are at .25C and typically fall into the .10 to .20C range during  NH summer.

 

NH SSTA have been slowly rising well above seasonal climo at this point hence why the global ssta are so warm. 

 

Now the problem is for the Earth torching horse balls is that SH SSTA always stay warmer than normal during ENSO which means they may not drop much more and stay in the .20C+ range.

 

Northern Hemisphere SSTA are going to peak in the .50C+ range climo wise.  But with the NINO + continued stronger and stronger arctic amplification.

 

That will probably be .60C to .70C+

 

 

I think we will creep up into the .40C+ weekly range at least before August and possibly peak in the .50C+ range in September.

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

UAH comes in at 0.33 for May.  This is the 3rd warmest May on the sat record behind 1998 and 2010.  Relatively impressive given the negative ONI tied to the month (assuming a 3 month lag).

 

UAH is now the 5th warmest year to date.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Volcano? The timing of the latest drop seems to coincide with the Indonesian eruption.

[SVT450R]

Wxbell dailies are a .08+ month is a .096+

[skierinvermont]

So it would take 1,000 volcanos of this magnitude to have roughly the same effect as Mt Pinatubo?  

 

No not necessarily. The ash cloud has to be tall enough to reach the stratosphere to have the maximum effect. No matter how many VEI3s you put together the ash isn't reaching the stratosphere. But a large amount of sulfate emissions into the troposphere could do still have some effect (Laki in Iceland for example). 

[roardog]

Was the latest eruption a VEI 3?

[Msalgado]

I doubt that drop is because of the volcano.  Its not even determined to be a VEI3 yet and I'm not sure that VE3 would have that big of an impact that quickly.  The plume didn't go above the tropopause as it only rose to 50,000 feet, so I don't see how it would have had a sustained effect over more than a very limited area.

[Msalgado]

You're looking at 3ish days of high SO2 emissions in that region.

 

http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/pix/daily/0614/lsunda_0614z.html

[The_Global_Warmer]

The drop is because of the AAO state folks.

 

[illinois]

I doubt that drop is because of the volcano. Its not even determined to be a VEI3 yet and I'm not sure that VE3 would have that big of an impact that quickly. The plume didn't go above the tropopause as it only rose to 50,000 feet, so I don't see how it would have had a sustained effect over more than a very limited area.

It is my understanding that the plume was approximately 12 miles high or about 67,000 feet, the statosphere typically begins around 60,000 feet in the tropics so I wouldn't be sure it didn't get high enough to send some material into the stratosphere. Don't get me wrong this is no where in the realm of Pinatubo but still impressive.

[Msalgado]

It is my understanding that the plume was approximately 12 miles high or about 67,000 feet, the statosphere typically begins around 60,000 feet in the tropics so I wouldn't be sure it didn't get high enough to send some material into the stratosphere. Don't get me wrong this is no where in the realm of Pinatubo but still impressive.

 

Do you have a source for that?  The site i saw said 50,000 feet.  I agree with you if it indeed got that high.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's the AAO state guys.

 

Secondly SSTA have been at .30C+ for about 2 months+ now.  They have been steady as a mug globally.  that is very stable heat output from the ocean to the atmosphere.

 

 

GISS has seen mostly cooling in their updates as well.  Interesting.

 

Focusing on the current trend.  The tropics were not the driving force of the May UAH anomaly.

 

The tropics being at .173C+ is nothing.  During the 09-10 and 97-98 NINOs they would reach the .70 to .85C range monthly in 2010 and over 1.0C+ in 1998.

 

We have a long way to go.
 

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 17 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.093
2014 5 +0.329 +0.326 +0.333 +0.173

This is the 3rd warmest May in the satellite record:
1998 +0.56 (warm ENSO)
2010 +0.45 (warm ENSO)
2014 +0.33 (neutral)

John Christy thinks the coming El Nino will give us a new temperature record, since it is superimposed on a warmer baseline than the super El Nino of 1997-98. I’m not convinced, since we are in the cool phase of the PDO, which favors weak El Ninos (like 2009-10).

As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….but we are talking small adjustments here…hundredths of a deg. C.

 

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

New update from Dr. Spencer on UAH version 6. I'm very suspicious of his continued downward adjustments to the UAH data. Why isn't anyone auditing this? So he can just adjust the data without anyone else's input?

Here's his quote:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2014-0-33-deg-c/

As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….but we are talking small adjustments here…hundredths of a deg. C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

New update from Dr. Spencer on UAH version 6. I'm very suspicious of his continued downward adjustments to the UAH data. Why isn't anyone auditing this? So he can just adjust the data without anyone else's input?

Here's his quote:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2014-0-33-deg-c/

 

 

 

This has happened with the last few versions. 

[ORH_wxman]

The adjustments happen all the time.

 

GISS changed their SST methodology in January 2013 to use ERSST3 which stopped using satellite SST data where there was sparse data....the old version of GISS used HADISST data and OISST data since 1982 (satellite enhanced)....the current version of ERSST3 never had a paper submitted for why they stopped using satellite enhancement in spots where data was sparse. GISS never submitted a formal paper for their change in SST datasets. Nobody in here is complaining about GISS' change in methods causing a slight increase in the warming rate since 1980.

 

 

 

If there are big errors, then papers will be submitted to debunk the datasets.

[PhillipS]

New update from Dr. Spencer on UAH version 6. I'm very suspicious of his continued downward adjustments to the UAH data. Why isn't anyone auditing this? So he can just adjust the data without anyone else's input?

Here's his quote:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2014-0-33-deg-c/

 

 

The UAH data are generated by a small team at the University of Alabama at Huntsville and so far as I know they work without much oversight.  Satellite temp data are proxy measurements, in this case microwave emissions from O2 in the atmosphere, and are produced by a series of models.

 

1.  The physics-based model of how microwaves are emitted based on temperature and pressure.

 

2.  The model of the performance of the radiometer sensors on the spacecraft.  Radiometer performance degrades over time (space is a harsh environment) so this model has to be tweaked periodically.

 

3.  The spacecraft dynamics model.  In order to accurately know where the sensor is pointing UAH has to know the orbital parameters and the spacecraft roll, pitch and yaw.  But satellite orbits drift constantly so this model is frequently updated.  Several of the past revisions to the UAH published data were due to problems with this model.

 

Changes to any of these models ripples through the temperature dataset.  If you look at the UAH data over time you'll see eye-opening changes.  Nothing underhanded - just fixes being applied as their understanding improves.

[Typhoon Tip]

Top 10 Warmest Years (1880–2013) (NOAA)
The following table lists the global combined land and ocean annually-averaged temperature rank and anomaly for each of the 10 warmest years on record.

RANK 
1 = WARMEST 
PERIOD OF RECORD: 1880–2013	YEAR	ANOMALY °C	ANOMALY °F
1	                        2010	      0.66	      1.19
2	                        2005	      0.65	      1.17
3	                        1998	      0.63	      1.13
4 (tie)*	                2013	      0.62	      1.12
4 (tie)*	                2003	      0.62	      1.12
6	                        2002	      0.61	      1.10
7	                        2006	      0.60	      1.08
8 (tie)*	                2009	      0.59	      1.07
8 (tie)*	                2007	      0.59	      1.06
10 (tie)	                2004	      0.57	      1.04
10 (tie)	                2012	      0.57	      1.03
*Note: Tie is based on temperature anomaly in °C. 

What I find interesting about these numbers is that in order, 2003 - 2007 took place, we skip 2008, then pick in back up with 2009 and 2010, drop 2011, then 2012 and 2013.   Pretty remarkable to cluster most mass in the last 10 years like that.

 

Not sure how telling that is, and/or what it means, but sufficed it is to say, there can be no argument: we are in a local multi-decadal warm climate mode.  

 

Now ... whether that mode is on a curve that is still rising, leveled off, or falling again, who knows.  But for the time being, it is what it is.  

 

What I'm interested in is what this may look like near amid 2017, when the local solar max is over the min is well on under way.  

[nflwxman]

GISS is in for May.  It's 0.76 above the 1951-1980 mean.  Warmest May on record by a good amount.  Through 5 months 2014 is the 4th warmest year on record.

 

Assuming a continued growth towards El Nino conditions, which will impact the temperature record later this year, a annual temperature record is likely.

 

 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2001 41 46 57 51 56 53 58 48 52 47 68 52 52 50 38 55 53 56 2001
2002 71 74 89 56 62 54 58 52 62 54 58 42 61 62 66 69 55 58 2002
2003 71 54 55 51 60 46 53 64 62 72 52 72 60 57 56 55 55 62 2003
2004 55 67 63 58 40 40 22 40 49 60 70 46 51 53 65 54 34 60 2004
2005 68 54 67 67 61 63 61 59 73 76 72 64 65 64 56 65 61 74 2005
2006 53 65 59 45 43 60 50 66 59 66 69 74 59 58 61 49 59 64 2006
2007 93 66 67 71 64 55 58 57 61 56 54 46 62 65 77 67 57 57 2007
2008 23 31 69 48 46 43 54 39 59 62 63 50 49 49 33 54 45 61 2008
2009 56 48 49 57 59 61 66 61 64 58 71 57 59 58 52 55 63 64 2009
2010 65 74 87 82 70 59 56 59 56 65 74 44 66 67 66 80 58 65 2010
2011 45 44 57 60 47 54 70 68 51 59 50 47 54 54 45 55 64 53 2011
2012 39 42 52 61 70 58 50 57 67 72 69 46 57 57 43 61 55 70 2012
2013 62 53 61 47 55 60 50 60 72 60 75 60 59 58 54 54 57 69 2013
2014 67 43 71 73 76*********************************** ********* 57 73********** 2014

[Msalgado]

The March April May period for GISS is also higher than any year other than 2010.

 

Of course, in 2010 we were coming off of an El Nino and as such the early part of the year was warmer

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

This time around, we're just starting to warm up as we move INTO an El Nino.

[chubbs]

Running 5-year average GISS is at a record of .612 previous record was mid 2005-10

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH was very warm for May.

 

AMSU channel 6 temps are way above every other year record wise.

 

Weatherbell is warming back up.  Probably going to start horse torching all Summer.

[SVT450R]

Wxbell dailies are a .05+ month to date is .072+

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU Channel 6 temps have risen well into 1st place and are still rising and will need to continue to rise to maintain 1st but damn.

 

Here we go folks.

 

I can say with great confidence that June on UAH will come in very warm.

 

 

 

 

 

Global ssta weeklies have rocketed back up to .33C+

 

 

The yearly NH warmup is just starting as well..  I think GISS and NCDC are pretty much locks for new records at this point.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS is in for May.  It's 0.76 above the 1951-1980 mean.  Warmest May on record by a good amount.  Through 5 months 2014 is the 4th warmest year on record.

 

Assuming a continued growth towards El Nino conditions, which will impact the temperature record later this year, a annual temperature record is likely.

 

 

 

 

 

The current GISS record is .66C+ for the year in 2010.

 

We are currently on a weather-bell pace for .62C+ for June.  Which would surprisingly be 3rd warmest on record.

 

I expect it to be more like .65C+.

 

But the AAO going up a ton will probably cool off Antarctica while warming the SH oceans slowing the immediate warming but aiding in even more warming later.

 

 

 

The Pacific equatorial region is warm from one side to the other.  With some big ENSO warming taking place again. 

 

The NPAC and other NHM water bodies starting to torch.  Probably see parts of the Hudson really warm up the next week.

 

The Indian Ocean is also really warm.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow enso is exploding and to think we already have such warm ssts and amsu channel 6 temps are record warm already and still steadily rising.