The_Global_Warmer Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Why is UAH lower than GISS? Because of the faux NINA we had. Out of the last 46 months. 40 have been enso negative. 6 have been enso positive 17 have been classified NINA. 0 have been classified NINA Concerning 2013-14: Since December of 2012 every ONI monthly update has been negative. A peak negative from December of 2013 to now has been: -0.4, -0.6, -0.6, -0.5. UAH shows in 2014 the tropics being mostly below normal. Obviously that means the entire lower troposphere over the tropics was below normal. That is a large area to blend together spatially versus a surface area chart. Hence why UAH lags GISS in this regard. Land temps in the NH and the arctic have been driving the GISS and NCDC warmth. The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.3862013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.1952013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.2432013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.1652013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.1122013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.2202013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.0742013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.0092013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.1902013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.0312013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.0202013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.0572014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.0292014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.1032014 3 +0.170 +0.337 +0.002 -0.0012014 4 +0.190 +0.359 +0.020 +0.092 It's not going to stay like this for much longer. UAH is going to start putting up large anomalies and probably record breaking monthlies from Aug/Sept onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 https://www.skepticalscience.com/cowtan_way_surface_temperature_data_update.html The different between the top 5 warmest years is very minimal, thus the record will be easily broken. Haven't heard of that source, but they have the warmest trend of anyone since the 1990s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Why is UAH lower than GISS? Because of the faux NINA we had. Out of the last 46 months. 40 have been enso negative. 6 have been enso positive 17 have been classified NINA. 0 have been classified NINA It's not going to stay like this for much longer. UAH is going to start putting up large anomalies and probably record breaking monthlies from Aug/Sept onward. That doesn't really explain it when making the comparisons to 1997, though. 1997 was also following a prolonged weak -ENSO period (21 straight tri-monthlies with -ENSO ONI), and yet GISS was not nearly so much warmer than UAH through April 1997 as it has been in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 It's not going to stay like this for much longer. UAH is going to start putting up large anomalies and probably record breaking monthlies from Aug/Sept onward. Also should be noted that in 1997, UAH didn't really see the anomalies jump until Nov/Dec. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Also should be noted that in 1997, UAH didn't really see the anomalies jump until Nov/Dec. FWIW. Jared, you're alive! Come back to Western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 What is the latest global daily and monthly anomaly on the WxBell CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Wxbell dailies .15c+ hovering around .20c+ past week month is a .120c+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 "The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F)." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 "The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F)." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4 Through April NCDC and GISS are both the 6th warmest years on record. Solid chance for a record on both this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The NCDC record is only .65C+ in 2010 and 2005. So far this year is .64C+ We have to remember NCDC doesn't have data at the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 Update on the CFS. Gradual warming into El Niño is evident: Meanwhile, AMSU (lower troposphere) remains colder than 2013. If it doesn't spike within 10-12 weeks, we might have to wait for 2015 to break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 It looks like NCDC and GISS will pummel their records while UAH will likely end up 3rd warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Jared, you're alive! Come back to Western. What's the new link again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Through April NCDC and GISS are both the 6th warmest years on record. Solid chance for a record on both this year. That speaks volumes to how much global temps have warmed recently in the SON period. Because both are only 0.01C below the yearly records but only running 6th warmest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 That speaks volumes to how much global temps have warmed recently in the SON period. Because both are only 0.01C below the yearly records but only running 6th warmest so far. Since 1984 (30 years), we've warmed at an annual J-D rate of 0.17 C/decade versus the SON period of 0.23 C/decade. Since 1998 (15 years), we've warmed at an annual J-D rate of 0.07 C/decade versus the SON period of 0.16 C/decade. One can speculate that ENSO has less of an impact in the fall, causing the bigger split in the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Since 1984 (30 years), we've warmed at an annual J-D rate of 0.17 C/decade versus the SON period of 0.23 C/decade. Since 1998 (15 years), we've warmed at an annual J-D rate of 0.07 C/decade versus the SON period of 0.16 C/decade. One can speculate that ENSO has less of an impact in the fall, causing the bigger split in the last 15 years. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 What's the new link again? http://theweatherforums.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Weatherbell CFSv2 Update: Monthly- 0.135C Daily- 0.25C Looks like May will come in around 0.7C above the 1951-1980 baseline on GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 If May comes in at .70C+ it will be above the yearly record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 If May comes in at .70C+ it will be above the yearly record. I don't think it's possible for May 2014 to avoid being the warmest on record. Record global temps should persist until the 30th/31st in conjunction with a -AAO phase. Climate Re-analyzer is 0.65C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 I don't think it's possible for May 2014 to avoid being the warmest on record. Record global temps should persist until the 30th/31st in conjunction with a -AAO phase. Climate Re-analyzer is 0.65C. Looks like our OHC connection is holding pretty strong. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are 3rd warmest on record slightly behind 2003 and 2010 and rising. The entire Lower troposphere is responding. It won't be long before they are warmest on record. I would expect UAH to be pumping out big numbers from here on out. Oh and we can't forget arctic amplification season is underway. What will be the results be? nflwxman posted the recent trends above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Looks like our OHC connection is holding pretty strong. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are 3rd warmest on record slightly behind 2003 and 2010 and rising. The entire Lower troposphere is responding. It won't be long before they are warmest on record. I would expect UAH to be pumping out big numbers from here on out. Again, in 1997 UAH didn't see major warming until the fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 Major, explosive eruption in Indonesia today, latest data suggests the plume is well into the stratosphere despite early reports. I guess we'll see what affect this has on things. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD41290.shtml http://www.wired.com/2014/05/explosive-eruption-at-sangeang-api-in-indonesia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Major, explosive eruption in Indonesia today, latest data suggests the plume is well into the stratosphere despite early reports. I guess we'll see what affect this has on things. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD41290.shtml http://www.wired.com/2014/05/explosive-eruption-at-sangeang-api-in-indonesia/ Interesting...thanks for the update. I think this would need to be at least a VEI 5 to have any type of noticeable effect on global temps. It doesn't sound like its that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 How is WxBell doing? Climate reanalyzer remains elevated and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 How is WxBell doing? Climate reanalyzer remains elevated and warm. Daily: 0.3C Monthly: 0.15C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 How is WxBell doing? Climate reanalyzer remains elevated and warm. It's at +0.28 today, + 0.1531 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 It's at +0.28 today, + 0.1531 for the month. That is like 0.72C on GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 GISStemp record for May is .70C+ set in 2010. Looking more and more likely for another record month. AMSU channel 6 temps have blown by 2013 and if they don't slow down in rising will be at record levels in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 Here's a more detailed article on today's volcanic eruption. Looks like the plume of ash is at least 12 miles up. Good pictures now coming in. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2644253/Incredible-moment-huge-volcano-erupts-Indonesia-sending-ash-spewing-thousands-feet-sky.html Whether or not it affects global temperatures remains to be seen. I'm guessing this'll end up being a VE3 scale eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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