2014 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Climate Analyzer shows a massive torch about to kick off globally.

 

El Nino is now taking over.

 

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Update on the CFS global temp anomaly, for anyone interested. Since these are now pay walled, I can report on them every now and then.

Looks like an underlying warming trend overall, with the usual ups and downs:

[nflwxman]

More for entertainment purposes, but a major global warmup seems likely to start in the next 72 hours according to the GFS.  This could be the start of the ENSO positive regime being felt on the surface.  The daily average per the GFS over the next 7 days is a 0.7C anomaly.  For reference, 0.7C on the Climate Reanalyzer is approximately 0.91C on GISS and 0.52C on CFSv2.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

The forecasted warming is likely a result of a drop in the AAO and increased latent heat release via the anomalous MJO wave over the IO..almost a 2 sigma event.

The same thing happened in January of 2013. The effect of El Niño won't be too strong until Fall/Winter.

[nflwxman]

The forecasted warming is likely a result of a drop in the AAO and increased latent heat release via the anomalous MJO wave over the IO..almost a 2 sigma event.

The same thing happened in January of 2013. The effect of El Niño won't be too strong until Fall/Winter.

Agreed, but I would imagine the borderline la nina conditions we had over the winter are starting to have less of an impact on Global Temperatures at this point.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Here is some really awesome comparison info from Bob Tisdale about ENSO.

 

ENSO 1-2 has exploded upwards.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS is out.  a .73C+ for April.  so far .64C+ on the year.

 

 

This is slightly below the 2010 record of .65C+.  

 

 

sounds like the talk of no chance of a new record was way off. 

[tacoman25]

GISS is out.  a .73C+ for April.  so far .64C+ on the year.

 

 

This is slightly below the 2010 record of .65C+.  

 

 

sounds like the talk of no chance of a new record was way off. 

 

Any other sources close to on pace for a record year?

[ORH_wxman]

Any other sources close to on pace for a record year?

 

 

No...but GISS usually revises downward as the year goes on. January is down another 0.01 and Feb went down 0.01 too. Even after the year is over, you might see revisions downward. Last year was revised downward again too....it is down to +0.59 after the prelim release back in January being +0.61...it was revised down to +0.60 a month later, and now +0.59 this month.

 

So you have to wait a bit.

[AvantHiatus]

Any other sources close to on pace for a record year?

Well, are you going to believe surface observations or satellites? You can average these two sources and global temperatures are still quite elevated.

[nflwxman]

No...but GISS usually revises downward as the year goes on. January is down another 0.01 and Feb went down 0.01 too. Even after the year is over, you might see revisions downward. Last year was revised downward again too....it is down to +0.59 after the prelim release back in January being +0.61...it was revised down to +0.60 a month later, and now +0.59 this month.

 

So you have to wait a bit.

This isn't exactly true.  Many years in the past have been revised up (2011, 2012 both prime examples).  I wouldn't say it's always revised down further out in time.

 

A 2014 global temperature record seems like a 50% chance at this point and even more likely for 2015.  NOAA has been a very elevated level thus far this year as well.  I can not speak to HADCrut4, however.  

 

We currently sit at 0.64C with almost entirely an ENSO negative influence (assuming a 2-3 month lag).  Pretty telling, IMO.  The Sat datasets are much more sensitive to changes in ENSO, thus a 2015 record seems more probable for UAH.

[ORH_wxman]

This isn't exactly true.  Many years in the past have been revised up (2011, 2012 both prime examples).  I wouldn't say exactly it's been all down further out in time.

 

A 2014 global temperature record seems like a 50% chance at this point and even more likely for 2015.  NOAA has been a very elevated level thus far this year as well.  I can not speak to HADCrut4, however.  

 

We currently sit at 0.64C with almost entirely an ENSO negative influence (assuming a 2-3 month lag).  Pretty telling, IMO.  The Sat datasets are much more sensitive to changes in ENSO, thus a 2015 record seems more probable for UAH.

 

 

Well now you are talking about years prior to their shift from OISST to ERSST.vb3 back last January...when they shifted to that dataset, it revised a lot of recent years upwards. The OISST dataset had a decadal trend of +0.09C while the ERSST dataset was +0.11. This is since 1981 when OISST started. (it is satellite-aided) GISS used HADISST dataset prior to 1981. Now it just uses ERSST the whole length. ERSST used to use satellite data too, but they removed it on their newest version, and the subsequent trend jumped. Probably because they lost a lot of southern ocean data.

 

Ever since the switch, the bias has definitely been that the initial readings are warmer than later readings.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global SSTA went up slightly on the last weekly update to .33C+

 

 

The SH SSTA are running very warm for this time of year. 

 

 

climate reanalyzer is warm thru mid May.

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

Weatherbell Update: 

 

CFSv2 dailies- +0.23

 

Monthly Value- +0.085

[StudentOfClimatology]

Here's the graph, for anyone interested..definite warming trend

[Jonger]

Why are we looking at a temp chart that spans 17 months?

[nflwxman]

Why are we looking at a temp chart that spans 17 months?

The CFSv2 was not designed to study long term trends in climate.  It has recently had a very solid correlation to the surface data sets (GISS, NOAA, etc.).  We use it mostly to forecast monthly values of sfc temp.

[frosty]

Apart from natural climate variability no recognisable warming since the late

nineties. Weak solar cycle 24 on the downturn and a forecast much weaker 25cycle

to come. No matter how much the governments and funded agencies try to ram this

warming money spinning propaganda lie down our throats global temperatures are

likely to head south despite a temporary blip from enso.

[ORH_wxman]

Apart from natural climate variability no recognisable warming since the late

nineties. Weak solar cycle 24 on the downturn and a forecast much weaker 25cycle

to come. No matter how much the governments and funded agencies try to ram this

warming money spinning propaganda lie down our throats global temperatures are

likely to head south despite a temporary blip from enso.

 

 

Quite unlikely. The reduced solar output will help offset anthropogenic warming, but its not strong enough to reverse it into a cooling trend unless we literally see something like a Maunder Min...and even then it would probably just be a slight cooling and only for a decade or two before warming resumed.

[nflwxman]

Very nice graph comparing the evolution of global temperatures and the Nino3.4 region between 1997 and 2014.  As you can see, 2014 is averaging about 0.26C higher through April with a similar 3.4 profile.

 

[Msalgado]

If the El Nino influence is primarily in the 2nd half of the year for global temps then I think there will be a good chance 2014 will be a record breaker.  But I really can't say thats the case off one graph.  I'd be interested to see what a statistical analysis would say for all El Ninos.

[nflwxman]

If the El Nino influence is primarily in the 2nd half of the year for global temps then I think there will be a good chance 2014 will be a record breaker.  But I really can't say thats the case off one graph.  I'd be interested to see what a statistical analysis would say for all El Ninos.

Just eyeballing the 1997 graph, it looks like the ENSO influence did not truly occur until September. However, it's obviously not that black and white.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Barring a Volcano we will almost certainly see a GISS record this year.

[tacoman25]

Barring a Volcano we will almost certainly see a GISS record this year.

 

Still waiting for a year that sets records across the board. The 1997-98 El Nino caused every single global temperature source to blow away their previous records (despite whatever flaws people want to point in the various sources, they all agreed that year was by far the warmest yet). Hasn't happened since.

[ORH_wxman]

Still waiting for a year that sets records across the board. The 1997-98 El Nino caused every single global temperature source to blow away their previous records (despite whatever flaws people want to point in the various sources, they all agreed that year was by far the warmest yet). Hasn't happened since.

 

 

I think next year has a good chance to be a record for all the datasets...esp if the El Nino can peak around or above 2.0C on the trimonthlies.

[tacoman25]

I think next year has a good chance to be a record for all the datasets...esp if the El Nino can peak around or above 2.0C on the trimonthlies.

 

No doubt. It's just funny how far ahead of the other sources GISS is at this point. Without us even officially being in El Nino yet.

[ORH_wxman]

No doubt. It's just funny how far ahead of the other sources GISS is at this point. Without us even officially being in El Nino yet.

 

 

We'll see what hadcrut and ncdc do over the next few months...GISS may be revised downward a bit too as we go along...I mentioned above how ever since the flip in their SST data source from OISST to ERSST in January 2013, they tend to bias warm in their initial measurements.

 

I'm not sure why they even switched datasets on the SSTs either...they never gave an explanation for the switch that I am aware of. OISST was good because it had satellite coverage where the surface coverage was sparse.

 

But oh well...that's why we have multiple datasets. To compare.

[AvantHiatus]

Barring a Volcano we will almost certainly see a GISS record this year.

 

 

 

The year 1998 is, at best, rank 3 – in the currently best data set of Cowtan & Way, 1998 is actually only ranked 7th. Even 2013 is – without El Niño – warmer there than 1998. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013/#sthash.jBw2ny7v.dpuf

 

https://www.skepticalscience.com/cowtan_way_surface_temperature_data_update.html

 

The different between the top 5 warmest years is very minimal, thus the record will be easily broken.

[nflwxman]

We'll see what hadcrut and ncdc do over the next few months...GISS may be revised downward a bit too as we go along...I mentioned above how ever since the flip in their SST data source from OISST to ERSST in January 2013, they tend to bias warm in their initial measurements.

 

I'm not sure why they even switched datasets on the SSTs either...they never gave an explanation for the switch that I am aware of. OISST was good because it had satellite coverage where the surface coverage was sparse.

 

But oh well...that's why we have multiple datasets. To compare.

It's tough to say how NCDC and hadcrut4 will compare at this point since their April is not out yet.  Through March..

 

NCDC is the 7th Warmest.

 

GISS is the 6th Warmest

 

HadCrut4 is the 8th Warmest

 

I'm not sure any of them are "outliers" or "anomalous."  I have a strong preference against HadCrut4 since they miss a large portion of the arctic as shown in Cowtan and Way paper linked below.  Due to this missing data, it's clear the dataset is more tied to ENSO than GISS.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/abstract

[StudentOfClimatology]

It's tough to say how NCDC and hadcrut4 will compare at this point since their April is not out yet. Through March..

NCDC is the 7th Warmest.

GISS is the 6th Warmest

HadCrut4 is the 8th Warmest

I'm not sure any of them are "outliers" or "anomalous." I have a strong preference against HadCrut4 since they miss a large portion of the arctic as shown in Cowtan and Way paper linked below. Due to this missing data, it's clear the dataset is more tied to ENSO than GISS.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/abstract

Its kind of semantical as the long term trend will always show warming, regardless of those obsessing over ever little hiatus

That said, it's not just in the Arctic where HADCRUT4 and GISS diverge. There is also a divergence over the tropics, predominately over the oceans, and it seems to be rather recent, rather than a longer term issue. It should also be notes that GISS has larger spatial grids for data input, so it features a much larger month-to-month swing in temperatures, on average, than both NCDC and HADCRUT4.

I personally prefer NCDC over the other datasets, as it essentially splits the difference.