AvantHiatus Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 For comparison purposes, 4/21/14 GFS surface temp anomaly relative to 1979-2000 baseline from site below is 0.72C. Looks like the gfs temps from this site run 0.35-0.4C higher than the wxbell cfs2 http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php WxBell is a 1981 - 2010 baseline, not sure if that accounts for all of the difference but it's a significant detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 WxBell is a 1981 - 2010 baseline, not sure if that accounts for all of the difference but it's a significant detail. Differences in baseline, model and perhaps other factors. They appear to be correlated, since the gfs values have also spiked recently, but with an offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 4-21-F2014 12z CFS: +0.37 C. April: +0.127 C From weatherguy: 12z was 0.38C with a monthly anomaly of 0.132C. Damn. I was right about April having a big toasting ending but I was wrong about global ssta going up again. I don't agree with Bob Tisdale's BS about climate change. But his graphics are nice. Global ssta dropped to 0.29C+ for the weeklies. The last three weeks have been .30, .31, .29. So some temporary stability in terms of daily global temps at the oceans surface. Which means some of the recent warming could be lag from the step up that took place from .22C+ to .30C+ in two weeks. That would yield almost .10C of extra warming. Also land factors must be at play for the Earth to be roasting versus averages. with no NINO yet at all. But we are enso positive now. But we have a hell of a way to go before we peak. Nino is about to explode onto the scene. We are currently rocking a .87C+ GISS equivalent anomaly. Since CFS is a 4 times per day sampling its pretty damn accurate and reliable with the comparison method ORH and Skier devised. We can track the global temps on a daily timescale now. Hell really a 6 hour timescale which is remarkable. Can we convert UAH or is it to off from the surface? OHC DATA FOR JFM SHOULD BE OUT SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Weatherbell dailies are up to 0.41 and the monthly sits at .137. It looks likely we will end the month between .15-.18 barring any sudden cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 We are currently rocking a .87C+ GISS equivalent anomaly. Since CFS is a 4 times per day sampling its pretty damn accurate and reliable with the comparison method ORH and Skier devised. OHC DATA FOR JFM SHOULD BE OUT SOON. I thought that the equivelant GISS temp was to adjust the CFS by .55 + a few hundreds?? So the month currently sits a .137...which equates to about .68 or so....how do you get +.87?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I thought that the equivelant GISS temp was to adjust the CFS by .55 + a few hundreds?? So the month currently sits a .137...which equates to about .68 or so....how do you get +.87?? I think he meant the daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 What is the GISS record for April? Highest I could find was April 2010 with an anomaly of 0.82C. It has been a while since we have broken with a warmest Spring month on record. However, November 2013 was the warmest on record. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I thought that the equivelant GISS temp was to adjust the CFS by .55 + a few hundreds?? So the month currently sits a .137...which equates to about .68 or so....how do you get +.87?? FWIW, March was 0.70C+ with a 0.127C+ anomaly on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I hear as of 12z today cfs is .45C+ Daily equivalent to GISS is .95C+. If this doesn't slow down ASAP April will quickly end up closer to .75C+ then .70C+. A large region of the equatorial Pacific is very warm attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 12z CFS: 0.38C and the monthly was 0.152C. Damn. If GISS is .75C+ in April the year would be : .6475C(.65C+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 12z CFS: 0.38C and the monthly was 0.152C. Damn. If GISS is .75C+ in April the year would be : .6475C(.65C+) Outside chance of breaking April 2010 (0.82C+)? Global temperatures will need to stay above 0.30C+ on WxBell CFS for the remainder of the month, which will be a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Outside chance of breaking April 2010 (0.82C+)? Global temperatures will need to stay above 0.30C+ on WxBell CFS for the remainder of the month, which will be a challenge. I doubt it. Maybe .73 to .74C+ at the most I think. We will see. Global ssta are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Pacific is still torching, NH SSTA are somehow less anomalous than the Southern Hemisphere. 360 from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 DMI ssta showing enso 1/2 region by SA dramatically warming. This would be in right proximity of the sub surface warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 It appears as if ENSO is finally going to let NINO shine. On multiple data sets we now have a very warm area of water off the SA coastline showing up at the surface. with the forecasted weakening of the trades again we should see this warm area of water to surface from 80W to 120W or so. The Indian Ocean is going bonkers now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 From NCDC on March: Global HighlightsThe combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was the fourth highest for March on record, at 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average of 12.3°C (54.1°F). April as of now would be about a .70C+ on GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The Indian Ocean haw warmed umm a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Global ssta have remarkably bounced back up to .32C+. The SH weeklies bounced back up to .34C+ from .28.5C+. The NH weeklies are steady at .305C+. This is pretty much terrible attm. All of a sudden the Equatorial Central Pacific is blowing up with huge ssta. The North and Central Indian ocean all dramatically warmed the last couple of days. Around Australia as well. And finally ENSO is appearing off the SA coast. This may be a time when we take a major jump up in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Wxbell dailies is at .05+ from a peak of .45+ month is at .147+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Global ssta have remarkably bounced back up to .32C+. The SH weeklies bounced back up to .34C+ from .28.5C+. The NH weeklies are steady at .305C+. This is pretty much terrible attm. All of a sudden the Equatorial Central Pacific is blowing up with huge ssta. The North and Central Indian ocean all dramatically warmed the last couple of days. Around Australia as well. And finally ENSO is appearing off the SA coast. This may be a time when we take a major jump up in temps. PDO signature much different than the past 3 years as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Wxbell dailies is at .05+ from a peak of .45+ month is at .147+ I love how global temperatures have actually been dropping, but you would think the opposite from Friv's posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I love how global temperatures have actually been dropping, but you would think the opposite from Friv's posts... They follow wave-like patterns, .05C is pretty warm if today is the end of the cooler trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I love how global temperatures have actually been dropping, but you would think the opposite from Friv's posts... Yeah, this is not really relevant. In fact, the following the weatherbell dailies is more for entertainment than actual global temperature analysis. The SST trend (which is very high for this time of year) are a more important measure of where we may go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The .05C+ is equivalent to a .60C+. The .147C+ is equal to a .70C+ on GISS. The top April months on giss by year: 2010: .82C+ 2007: .71C+ 2005: .67C+ 1998: .63C+ This means April will likely be the 3rd warmest on GISSTEMP. It's not really cool at all. And we haven't even gotten started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Yeah, this is not really relevant. In fact, the following the weatherbell dailies is more for entertainment than actual global temperature analysis. The SST trend (which is very high for this time of year) are a more important measure of where we may go from here. The SST trend can easily reverse this time of the year. Even during developing El Ninos. They aren't much different from analyzing the weatherbell trends...in fact, the weatherbell maps would be more accurate since they include land. SSTs will become more relevant in late summer and autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I think at the level we are currently at the global ssta are plenty relevant in terms of how this April is so warm. The only time this early in the year have the global ssta been this high was in April of 1998 when we were coming out of a super nino. Which finished at .63C on GISS. May of 1998 finished at a .68C and June was a .75C with nino collapsing during April-May. The warmest months of May from GISS: 2010: .70C+ 2012: .70C+ 1998: .68C+ 2007: .64C+ Global ssta in 1998 remained along and above .30C until late Summer. Global ssta in 2007 were around the .20C mark going from April into May. Global ssta in 2010 were above .30C+ thru April until the last or second to last week. Before they dropped into the .25C range into June. Global ssta in 2012 were around .15C in April and up to .20C in May. This will ensure that May is warm. I am looking forward to seeing how far the global ssta carry May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The SST trend can easily reverse this time of the year. Even during developing El Ninos. They aren't much different from analyzing the weatherbell trends...in fact, the weatherbell maps would be more accurate since they include land. SSTs will become more relevant in late summer and autumn. Disagree. SSTs are on weekly timescale which inherently matter more than the daily weatherbell update due to temporal resolution alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Disagree. SSTs are on weekly timescale which inherently matter more than the daily weatherbell update due to temporal resolution alone. We'll agree to disagree then....they don't provide that much usefulness in terms of predictive power until the later summer when you can lag ENSO pretty well. They change all the time and they often will not line up that well with LOTI GISS...we at least know how the weatherbell maps relate to GISS....Friv's OISST anomaly graphs are mostly speculation. Maybe someone can provide some hard mathematical stats on how the OISST anomalies correspond with GISS temps much like we were able to do with the weatherbell maps. Until then, they don't provide much usefulness other than prior week SST anomalies. You can't tell us if they are going to increase or decrease in the next couple of weeks at this point based on that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Also a little warning about OISST maps: they've been found to be deceptive by NOAA at least during one very unforgettable (for me at least) period. Does anyone recall how much sudden warming OISST maps were showing in 3.4 ~late October of 2012, which lead others and myself to believe a weak El Nino was actually getting started? People that had access to daily Nino 3.4 were posting the daily strong warming updates. It turned out these maps were showing some kind of either false warming or misleading warming that reversed very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 I find the NESDIS data to be the most accurate, by far..here's today's update: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif Also, I'm astonished at how people fixate on every blip in global temperatures, then try to extrapolate the blip and draw large-scale conclusions from it...global temperatures can swing by over 1C in 10 days. It's wiser to look at this on a 12-18 week resolution, rather than try to analyze noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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