2014 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

The concern of the NINO is causing big time unrest in the denier community.

 

You know considering global record temps will totally crap on the denier community hardcore.

 

ENSO or not it can't still be warming can it?  haha. 

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/11/the-201415-el-nino-part-2-the-alarmist-misinformation-bs-begins/#more-107333

 

 

 

We haven't even gone into a NINO period yet this year.

 

 

Global ssta are at .30C+.  The nino is going to push those into the .40 to .50C range if the NINO is going strong in SON things could crush those records.  We will have to see.

 

Even so GISS has come in at .70, .45, and .70C.  Which is .62C+ and this is before NINO has even started.

 

 

The enso warming subsided.  There is a new pulse coming up but it is being shredded for the moment.

 

The SH Ocean between roughly 30-60S is way warm.  Also parts of the Southern Indian ocean have dramatically warmed.  The North Pacific is also warming a bit.

 

The gulf stream area of the Alantic should warm up substansially soon.

 

 

The thermocline is being knocked down.  In fact really has been a lot.

 

It's going to be warm to torching for a while.  Hopefully a big nina forms on the back of this.

 

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Check out how fast coastal water temps warmed up today. Gulf Stream is still toasty, it has been constantly torching by 5C+ since 2009 at least.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44009

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

TAO shows continued slow subsurface warming over the Eastern Pacific.

 

 

\

 

 

Global ssta weeklies came in light a hair above last week.  Two weeks in a row now above .30C+.

 

We still have yet to see the nino take hold.  There was a burst of warmth right along the eqautro

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

However in the last couple of days warming over ENSO has shown up a little bit.  But not just along the equator.  Quite a bit of warming between 0-20N Pacific basin wide. In-fact there has been strong warming along the Eastern Eurasian coast and the Northern Indian ocean to a lesser extent.

 

The NE Pacific has warmed as well.  There has been slight cooling over the equatorial Atlantic.  I think global ssta will probably go up closer to .33 to .35C+ by the next update.  If ENSO starts to show up consistently then probably .40C+ by May.

 

 

I look forward to the next NODC OHC update.  I think its going to be a new record for the trimonthly of JFM.

 

[bluewave]

Cooling on the latest ENSO update as the WWB faded and the trades returned.

 

02APR2014 25.2-0.7 27.8 0.5 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.7
09APR2014 24.9-0.8 27.6 0.1 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.7

[The_Global_Warmer]

Cooling on the latest ENSO update as the WWB faded and the trades returned.

 

02APR2014 25.2-0.7 27.8 0.5 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.7

09APR2014 24.9-0.8 27.6 0.1 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.7

Dang and global ssta still went up.

[SVT450R]

Wxbell since last update slowly dipped to .09c- before moving back up to .15c+ month is .095c+

[ORH_wxman]

GISS comes in at +0.70C for March. Good for the 4th warmest March on record.

 

 

January was revised downward slightly to +0.69C and February remained at +0.45C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wxbell since last update slowly dipped to .09c- before moving back up to .15c+ month is .095c+

 

The rest of the month will have to see a steady warm period like .15-.20C or so on Weatherbell or a torch period to get April up to the .70C+ mark on GISS.

 

 

Given that global ssta have now spent two weeks at or above .30C+. 

 

 

And the AAO is expected to go neutral. 

 

And Russia just being flooded with warmth and snow cover that is being ravished i think we will see a .25 to .35C+ week on weatherbell or so.

 

I don't know because there is so much going on with ENSO being so close to really warming up the Epac.

 

We will see. 

 

 

[nflwxman]

Dang and global ssta still went up.

This is pure speculation, but I truly believe that even if the Nino does not form this year (which seems unlikely), we have a pretty reasonable shot of breaking the global temperature record on GISS.  The winter months have averaged .62 with essentially a borderline nina ONI in the background.  The winters have been notoriously cold since 2008, but that has appeared to turn around this year.  The summers/fall continue to warm relatively unabated, leading to my speculation.  That with a positive ONI could just do it.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is pure speculation, but I truly believe that even if the Nino does not form this year (which seems unlikely), we have a pretty reasonable shot of breaking the global temperature record on GISS.  The winter months have averaged .62 with essentially a borderline nina ONI in the background.  The winters have been notoriously cold since 2008, but that has appeared to turn around this year.  The summers/fall continue to warm relatively unabated, leading to my speculation.  That with a positive ONI could just do it.

 

 

The ONI for JFM was -0.7C.  -0.6C for DJF.

 

 

It sure seems like the baseline has moved a little bit the last few years.

 

This year is almost guaranteed to break .65C+ on GISS.

 

 

If the rest of the year averages .75C+ on GISS.  2014 would end up .715(.72C)

 

If the rest of the year averages .70C+ on GISS.  2014 would end up .678(.68C)

 

 

The record is now .66C+ set in 2005 and 2010.

 

 

 

Just to tie .66C+ the rest of the year only has to average .676C+.

 

To break it about 68.5C+.

 

 

Currently weatherbell would convert to about a .64-65C+ in April.

 

 

I still think it will be around .70C+ or slightly above.

[SVT450R]

The rest of the month will have to see a steady warm period like .15-.20C or so on Weatherbell or a torch period to get April up to the .70C+ mark on GISS.

 

 

Given that global ssta have now spent two weeks at or above .30C+. 

 

 

And the AAO is expected to go neutral. 

 

And Russia just being flooded with warmth and snow cover that is being ravished i think we will see a .25 to .35C+ week on weatherbell or so.

 

I don't know because there is so much going on with ENSO being so close to really warming up the Epac.

 

We will see. 

 

 

Yea at this point in the month it looks like Antarctica is helping offset the torch going on in Russia as the entire continent is below normal as we would most likely have had a much higher month to date on weatherbell if it hadn't.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yea at this point in the month it looks like Antarctica is helping offset the torch going on in Russia as the entire continent is below normal as we would most likely have had a much higher month to date on weatherbell if it hadn't.

 

For sure, on the flip side tho:

 

SH SSTA from 0 to 60S are as warm as 2002 and almost as warm as 2010 and 1998.

 

I have no idea what the ultimate impact will be and how long they will stay really warm.  We are actually into the time of year they are supposed to be dropping off quickly.

 

So they will drop and as that happens the Southern Hemisphere will probably see a really warm period for a little while.

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU channel 6 temps are 2nd warmest on record a little bit behind 2005.

 

2005 was coming out of weak nino at this time and was still well enso positive.

 

2014 is coming out of two months of weak nina, not long enough for classification.

 

Obviously the recent warming does have some impact on the heat content in the lower troposhere.

[StudentOfClimatology]

2005 was coming out of weak nino at this time and was still well enso positive.

2014 is coming out of two months of weak nina, not long enough for classification.

Global temperatures can swing 0.5 - 1.0C over 10-15 days, due to shifts in tropical convection/MJO, the annular modes, etc. If minor differences in ENSO are a factor in these readings, it will only show up on a multi-month scale.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global temperatures can swing 0.5 - 1.0C over 10-15 days, due to shifts in tropical convection/MJO, the annular modes, etc. If minor differences in ENSO are a factor in these readings, it will only show up on a multi-month scale.

 

 

Most definitely.

 

We are seeing that in the fact that inspite of ENSO state being negative going back over a year and also reaching -0.6 and -0.7C for a couple months.

 

Since September of 2013 GISS has averaged .65C+.

 

Overall the oceans are warmer than in 2009/10 mid 2000s and 1998 when nino conditions were happening.

 

Even more so this time of year.

 

 

I only went back to 2007 so it would be discernable.  But we can see that inside of enso events.  This time of year global ssta are typically lower for the enso conditions we have had since the Spring of 2012. 

 

 

It's just an all over general warming.  While a .305C+ anomaly doesn't seem like a lot the ocean surface is quite large.

 

 

The warmth just trumps the cool anomalies except when ENSO goes nina or neg for a while.  We have been oscilating between .20-.30C+ for a while.

 

 

The Southern Hemisphere has to cool off some as they head into winter.  But the Northern Hemisphere oceans start torching the further North you go every mid Summer to early Fall now.

 

 

And we are on the cusp of a nino.

 

We are probably going to jump at some point to monthly records back to back to back and so on.

 

 

I bet UAH is .25C+ for April as well starting it's rise with the lower troposphere warming.

 

 

 

Roy Spencer posted this on his blog.  It really makes sense.  in terms of matching up to heat uptake.  Inspite of this.  Something is offsetting this.

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Most definitely.

We are seeing that in the fact that inspite of ENSO state being negative going back over a year and also reaching -0.6 and -0.7C for a couple months.

Since September of 2013 GISS has averaged .65C+.

Overall the oceans are warmer than in 2009/10 mid 2000s and 1998 when nino conditions were happening.

Even more so this time of year.

I only went back to 2007 so it would be discernable. But we can see that inside of enso events. This time of year global ssta are typically lower for the enso conditions we have had since the Spring of 2012.

It's just an all over general warming. While a .305C+ anomaly doesn't seem like a lot the ocean surface is quite large.

The warmth just trumps the cool anomalies except when ENSO goes nina or neg for a while. We have been oscilating between .20-.30C+ for a while.

The Southern Hemisphere has to cool off some as they head into winter. But the Northern Hemisphere oceans start torching the further North you go every mid Summer to early Fall now.

And we are on the cusp of a nino.

We are probably going to jump at some point to monthly records back to back to back and so on.

I bet UAH is .25C+ for April as well starting it's rise with the lower troposphere warming.

Roy Spencer posted this on his blog. It really makes sense. in terms of matching up to heat uptake. Inspite of this. Something is offsetting this.

Fantastic post, and I agree wholeheartedly. I think global temps may be in the cusp of another "jump", like what we saw in 1998, based on observations and statistical analysis.

As for Dr. Spencer's graph, it's hard to draw a conclusion from it because the ever present "imbalance" is influenced by dozens of factors over many timescales. So I think it's a dumb graph.

The system is hyper-sensitive to perturbation, but when you have a whole slew of perturbations tugging it in different directions, the response(s) lose coherence. So you have climatologists struggling to explain large climate shifts of the past, and possibly under-estimating future warming, because they still hold a binary, two-directional perspective on the imbalance and system response.

[Jonger]

The trend line before 1998 was upward and at a steep angle, it's been a much more muted trend over the last 13 years. The 13 years before 1998 probably jumped .20 -.30+ in that same timespan. Had we followed that trajectory, the GISS baseline would be closer to +1.10 or better.

I guess we will see.

[chubbs]

Persistant cold anamolies over Canada are finally going to weaken by the weekend

[The_Global_Warmer]

TAO triton is showing 5C+ just below the surface along the 100W region. 

 

 

 

 

In terms in it reaching the surface.  Another enso pulse is taking place.  I should say warm pulse along the surface.  Looks like it is surfacing to about 90W.  However given how close the warm pool is to the SA coast I think at least a while this will reach the SA coast.

 

 

Look at the big warming as well west of Cali out thru the central Pacific.

 

Indonesia region cooled off quite a bit.  But the Mediterranean/Baltic region warmed up a lot as well as the Northern Indian Ocean.

 

Look at the NEPAC blowing up pretty big again.  And the West coast of Africa over the tropical Atlantic. 

 

I think ssta this week will warm up a bit to .32-.33C.

 

If NINO conditions do take hold then .35C to .40C the week after update(about 11 days from now).

 

 

Then around .40C+ thru Summer into Fall. Peaking above .50C+ for however long, impossible to say.

 

 

 

 

 

I am told weatherbell is up to .195C+ on the dailies.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What a difference a year makes. 

 

Ignore the red circle I have no idea what it's for I found this image in the sea ice thread.

 

This was 12 days ago.  But still the only comparison I have.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Modern temperature and climate forecasts overlayed with the paleoclimate temperature record. Click to zoom in.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The warming over the central Pacific along the ENSO equatorial belt then North between 0-20/25N basin wide is pretty impressive.

 

It looks like there is a large area of high pressure sprawled out over the Pacific.  Especially the central/Epac.

 

With SLPs over the NPAC.  We should probably see some cooling here pretty quickly over the NPAC with that kind of set up.

 

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

The NOAA/NESDIS data (50km reso compiled) shows a ton of warming in the Atlantic and North Pacific.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Enso has stagnated for the last 3 days or so.

 

But the warmth over the East Central Pacific has exploded.

 

 

and over the European region.  I think the central Pacific is going to warm a lot and the Npac will cool

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

TAO now showing a 6C+ anomaly right along the 100W mark below the surface.

 

It is pretty clear now this NINO is going to be East based with the warm subsurface waters now reaching the SA West coast.

 

also I am told weatherbell dailies are up to .28C+ with the monthly at .105C

 

The AAO is plummeting the next two days.  Australia is expected to become well above normal.  North half of Africa is running warm.  we will probably see most of the rest of this month stay above .20C+ on weatherbell.

 

So I think the month will finish around .15C+ and .70C+ on GISS.

 

 

Before any nino has got going at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am told weatherbell through 12z today has:

 

0.37C Daily

0.121C Monthly.

 

 

 

Damn.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I am told weatherbell through 12z today has:

0.37C Daily

0.121C Monthly.

Damn.

I have access to the WxBell CFS. So far ~ 0.14C from Apr 1-20. So about .08C warmer than the average of the past 18 months.

[wolfpackmet]

4-21-2014 12z CFS: +0.37 C.    April: +0.127 C

[chubbs]

For comparison purposes, 4/21/14 GFS surface temp anomaly relative to 1979-2000 baseline from site below is 0.72C. Looks like the gfs temps from this site run 0.35-0.4C higher than the wxbell cfs2

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php