2014 Global Temperatures

[ORH_wxman]

I don't disagree with your point about improving GCMs, but would like you to understand why saying "CLIMATE MODELS FAIL LOL" is a really poor statistical argument.  Not saying you are making that argument personally, btw.

 

 

Well saying "climate models fail, lol" isn't a very scientific statement to begin with.

 

 

I think many of us get caught up in the extremist arguments which unfortunately are all over the blogosphere...but not really relevant to the central debate/uncertainty in climate change. These are then used too often to make points when it is really not necessary. I have been guilty of it too.

[StudentOfClimatology]

HadCrut4 has poor arctic coverage, so using the GISS dataset instead, that surface temperature is closer to the ~75-80% confidence interval of CIMP5 Ensemble Mean (see what I did there?). It's not really a service to statistics to use such short periods of time for this reason alone. My point is not refute the statistical methods of the study you posted, but to refute the drastic (IMO) conclusion that it claims.

I'd actually pick Ncdc over either Giss or Hadcrut4. Most of the divergence between Giss and Hadcrut4 is actually over the oceans, because of the methods Giss uses to incorportate SSTs/temps off the coastlines, and Giss's larger grids. The result is much larger month-to-month swings on Giss, and Hadcrut4 missing warming.

Ncdc accounts for the Arctic warming unlike Hadcrut4, but it doesn't do ridiculous things over the oceans like Giss.

[ORH_wxman]

In the end, arguing over how fast the temperature rises is a mute point since a doubling of CO2 has been scientifically proven to produce at least a temperature rise of 3.0C (+- 1.0C) (Up from 2.0 C a couple years ago). Uncertainties are larger towards the upper range based on paleoclimate.

 

We need to actively reforest the planet and oceans or pull carbon from the atmosphere, it's really that simple. Claiming that AGW is not an urgent problem is a foolish mistake. Action is required as the damage keeps accumulating every second we waste on debates. We can deal with the problem now or wait, either way change is required at some point if we want to sustain civilization in its current form. Claiming that GHG Models should be "downgraded"  or "rebuilt" because they are too warm as of some specific date is an issue of seeing the trees before the forest.

 

 

 

 

We'll agree to disagree....there is peer reviewed literature out there that can counter just about everything you said.

 

There's literature to support your claims too, but saying blanket statements such as "CO2 has been proven to produce at least a temperature rise of 3.0C" is unsupported.

[skierinvermont]

I keep reading articles and posts about how GCM's just use CO2 forcing and ignore albedo and aerosol feedbacks. Additionally, they do not apply other positive feedbacks, which is not even possible due to unknown variables and complexity. James Hansen has even voiced his concern over the validity of GCM's on decadal timescales and the non-linear aspects of global climate. I will try to find the interview on youtube.

 

All CMIP5 models include aerosol forcing it would be completely impossible to make projections without it. I'm not sure about albedo forcing. It's not that important since it is not that large of a global forcing. Some may include it some may not.

[SVT450R]

Wxbell dailies have slowly declined from last update to .10c+ with month at .157c+

[Jonger]

We'll agree to disagree....there is peer reviewed literature out there that can counter just about everything you said.

 

There's literature to support your claims too, but saying blanket statements such as "CO2 has been proven to produce at least a temperature rise of 3.0C" is unsupported.

 

Yea, I really would like to see how any future predictions can be listed as "proven". I think the only thing proven is that climate models are scraping at the bottom of the 95% confidence interval, not anything to really crow over.

[AvantHiatus]

We'll agree to disagree....there is peer reviewed literature out there that can counter just about everything you said.

 

There's literature to support your claims too, but saying blanket statements such as "CO2 has been proven to produce at least a temperature rise of 3.0C" is unsupported.

So you are denying basic physics. Some people can't accept the fact they need to change their lifestyles and live in equilibrium with the environment. I hope that the "change" proposed by Obama is not the only option.

 

If you're more of a history guy and cannot work with numbers, paleoclimate provides alot of insight for you.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Antarctica has been really cool with the big +AAO.

 

Conversely Southern Hemisphere SSTA have gone up to levels we haven't seen since 2009-10 NINO.

 

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

So you are denying basic physics. Some people can't accept the fact they need to change their lifestyles and live in equilibrium with the environment. I hope that the "change" proposed by Obama is not the only option.

 

If you're more of a history guy and cannot work with numbers, paleoclimate provides alot of insight for you.

What is the "basic" science to come up with 3.0?? Yes it's basic if you throw out all the "uncertainty" surrounding the numerous feedbacks.

And, LOL....you lecturing Will!!

[ORH_wxman]

So you are denying basic physics. Some people can't accept the fact they need to change their lifestyles and live in equilibrium with the environment. I hope that the "change" proposed by Obama is not the only option.

 

If you're more of a history guy and cannot work with numbers, paleoclimate provides alot of insight for you.

 

 

You clearly need to read up on the literature if you think "basic science" supports "at least a 3.0C increase" per doubling of CO2.

 

 

Basic science shows about 1.1C increase per doubling of CO2 and the further warming after that is all in the feedbacks. If you still don't believe this, then we can't really have an intelligent debate until you read up on basic literature.

 

 

Now, the feedbacks are highly supported by the literature to be positive, so we expect a warming further beyond the ~1.1C that CO2 alone would account for....but reaching 3.0C is far from agreed upon and far from certain...nevermind "at least 3.0C". One of the most disagreed upon aspects of climate change is just how much the feedbacks contribute to extra warming. That is why the IPCC has such a broad range of 1.5C to 4.5C per doubling of CO2.

[AvantHiatus]

What is the "basic" science to come up with 3.0?? Yes it's basic if you throw out all the "uncertainty" surrounding the numerous feedbacks.

And, LOL....you lecturing Will!!

Nothing personal, I think that the temperature rise from a doubling of CO2 is about 2.5C without considering additional slow feedbacks and including water vapor and albedo feedbacks and this number would be inside the 95% percentile. Will, the at least 3.0C was from including the slow and fast feedbacks. I should of worded my post more thoroughly.

 

I'm aware of the uncertainties and I'm making these claims with caution. They should not be used as an official benchmark as they are not based on sufficient scientific reasoning. We will be able to observe how important positive feedbacks are in the coming decades and hopefully these observations will help us narrow the confidence range.

 

 

 

Using only the data from the decade from 2000-2009 we find a 5-95% confidence interval for equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.2 - 3.9 °C. We compare the range to the range of the CMIP5 models of 2.2 - 4.7 °C saying that the range overlaps but is slightly moved to lower values. If we use the data from 1970-2009, also including the last decade, instead we find a 5 - 95% confidence interval of 0.9 - 5 °C for equilibrium climate sensitivity. 

 

Comparing these ranges directly to the IPCC's range for climate sensitivity from AR4 is difficult. For one, the IPCC didn't directly give a 5 - 95% confidence interval (i.e. no upper 95% limit), and secondly, the IPCC range is not derived formally from an analysis of data, but is a consensus expert assessment of all the different lines of evidence underlying the IPCC report. Hence the IPCC's likely range of 2.0 - 4.5 °C is not directly comparable to a 17 - 83% confidence interval derived from our study. IPCC typically down-grades confidence levels from those reported in individual studies to account for "unknown unknowns".

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/alex-otto-article

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global weekly ssta is now back up to 0.30C+

 

[PhillipS]

UAH posted for March:

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't think UAH will break it's record.  But I think it will be very close to 1st and 2nd.

 

Southern Hemisphere SSTA are the warmest they have been since the 2009 nino.

 

GLOBAL SSTA have taken some wild turns with the seasonal change and another one just took place as enso cools off a bit right along the equator.

 

 

This is a bad one for sure.  Look at the Southern Hemisphere tropical regions.  Huge warming in ssta along the 10-25S line in the Indian Ocean all the way to Indonesia.  This is major realestate here. 

 

Now look West of Africa along the 0-20S region.  That is a new area of big warming along the large realestate regions of the oceans. 

 

 

 

As for Enso.

 

TAO shows major ssta subsurface?  Damn.

 

 

 

Looke like OHC is peaking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

Yeah, we've seen a resurgence in the trade winds over the past week or so. However, with the SST anomaly established near the dateline (and affecting the atmosphere), this is probably temporary. In fact, most guidance shows the start of another WWB event and near complete shutdown of the trades near and west of the dateline over the next ~week. TC, WWB, and MJO activity could help send the OHC values higher. This month will be pretty critical for determining the ultimate strength of the event.

[The_Global_Warmer]

wow that will definitely thrust us into NINO by May.

[chubbs]

March PDO up to 0.97. Highest monthly value since 2006.  

 

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014**  0.30 0.38 0.97

[nflwxman]

March came out to .70 on GISS.  The yearly average is now .613 versus .580 recorded the same time last year.  On weatherbell, the daily is about 0.09 and the monthly is about the same for April. 

 

2001 41 46 57 51 57 53 59 48 52 48 68 52 53 51 38 55 53 56 2001
2002 72 74 89 56 62 54 59 53 62 55 59 42 61 62 66 69 55 59 2002
2003 72 54 55 52 60 47 54 65 63 73 53 72 60 57 56 56 55 63 2003
2004 56 66 63 58 41 40 23 41 50 61 70 47 51 53 65 54 35 60 2004
2005 68 54 67 67 61 64 62 59 74 77 72 64 66 64 56 65 62 74 2005
2006 54 66 59 45 44 60 50 66 59 67 69 75 59 59 61 49 59 65 2006
2007 93 66 68 71 64 55 58 57 61 57 54 46 63 65 78 68 57 57 2007
2008 23 32 69 48 46 43 55 39 59 62 62 51 49 49 33 55 46 61 2008
2009 57 48 49 57 59 62 67 61 65 59 72 58 59 59 52 55 63 65 2009
2010 66 75 87 82 70 59 56 58 56 65 74 44 66 67 66 80 58 65 2010
2011 45 44 58 60 47 53 69 68 51 60 50 48 54 54 44 55 64 54 2011
2012 38 42 52 60 70 58 50 57 68 72 69 46 57 57 43 61 55 70 2012
2013 62 53 59 47 56 60 52 61 72 61 75 60 60 59 54 54 58 69 2013
2014 69 45 70

[AvantHiatus]

March came out to .70 on GISS.  The yearly average is now .613 versus .580 recorded the same time last year.  On weatherbell, the daily is about 0.09 and the monthly is about the same for April. 

 

2001 41 46 57 51 57 53 59 48 52 48 68 52 53 51 38 55 53 56 2001

2002 72 74 89 56 62 54 59 53 62 55 59 42 61 62 66 69 55 59 2002

2003 72 54 55 52 60 47 54 65 63 73 53 72 60 57 56 56 55 63 2003

2004 56 66 63 58 41 40 23 41 50 61 70 47 51 53 65 54 35 60 2004

2005 68 54 67 67 61 64 62 59 74 77 72 64 66 64 56 65 62 74 2005

2006 54 66 59 45 44 60 50 66 59 67 69 75 59 59 61 49 59 65 2006

2007 93 66 68 71 64 55 58 57 61 57 54 46 63 65 78 68 57 57 2007

2008 23 32 69 48 46 43 55 39 59 62 62 51 49 49 33 55 46 61 2008

2009 57 48 49 57 59 62 67 61 65 59 72 58 59 59 52 55 63 65 2009

2010 66 75 87 82 70 59 56 58 56 65 74 44 66 67 66 80 58 65 2010

2011 45 44 58 60 47 53 69 68 51 60 50 48 54 54 44 55 64 54 2011

2012 38 42 52 60 70 58 50 57 68 72 69 46 57 57 43 61 55 70 2012

2013 62 53 59 47 56 60 52 61 72 61 75 60 60 59 54 54 58 69 2013

2014 69 45 70

March 2014 in relation to previous years, 3rd warmest on record!

 

 

Historically on GISS March has had some big anomalies mostly from ENSO or both NH continents torching.

 

March of 2002 had a .89C+ because of warm tropics but almost all of Eurasia, arctic, and Antarctica torched together.

 

March of 2005 had a .67C+ as El Nino(previous 3 month trimonthly averaged out to (0.6C+) was coming to an end.

 

March of 2007 had a .68C+ as again El Nino was coming to and end.

 

March of 2010 had a .87C+ in the midst of a strong winding down to moderate Nino.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Forecasts for Russia/arctic region are showing 2C+ for the first time in close to 3 weeks at least.

 

 

Wild times ahead.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

March 2014 in relation to previous years, 2nd warmest on record!

 

I think that is 3rd warmest behind 2010 and 2002.

[AvantHiatus]

I think that is 3rd warmest behind 2010 and 2002.

See my post above, Typo...those charts are hard to read and see the separations of numbers. 2C+ anomalies are serious business this time of year and going forward. You posted way back about how summer time temperatures have traditionally been less deviant from the average in relation to the winter state.

[The_Global_Warmer]

ENSO has slowed in terms of warming at the surface.  But TAO Subsurface is still showing the warm waters getting closer.

 

 

 

CPC shows the same thing.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

See my post above, Typo...those charts are hard to read and see the separations of numbers. 2C+ anomalies are serious business this time of year and going forward. You posted way back about how summer time temperatures have traditionally been less deviant from the average in relation to the winter state.

 

It's still really early.

 

The Summer mode probably doesn't start until June.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

It's still really early.

 

The Summer mode probably doesn't start until June.

 

Feels like Summer locally, Eastern NA will be racking up some big temperature departures next few days. I have not followed the spring-time melt progression so I will be reliant on your good judgement.

 

 

Scandinavia/Barents Sea region has been an all out torch ice-free zone all year around. That would be where you would see progress if there was to be a "century-break" recovery this year.

[AvantHiatus]

The March PDO was the warmest before a developing El Nino since 1986  back during the +PDO era that

makes this very rare since we are in a -PDO era now. The readings since we entered a -PDO era in 1999 have been

much lower in March before an El Nino was declared later in the year. I cant find any years that this happened

during the last -PDO era from 50 to 76.

 

JFM before a summer or fall El Nino develops:

 

1986 1.12 1.61 2.18

1987 1.88 1.75 2.10 

1988 0.93 1.24 1.42

1989 -0.95 -1.02 -0.83 

1990 -0.30 -0.65 -0.62

1991 -2.02 -1.19 -0.74 

1992 0.05 0.31 0.67

1993 0.05 0.19 0.76 

1994 1.21 0.59 0.80 

1995 -0.49 0.46 0.75

1996 0.59 0.75 1.01 

1997 0.23 0.28 0.65

1998 0.83 1.56 2.01

1999 -0.32 -0.66 -0.33

2000 -2.00 -0.83 0.29 

2001 .60 .29 0.45 -0.31

2002** 0.27 -0.64 -0.43 

2003** 2.09 1.75 1.51

2004** 0.43 0.48 0.61 

2005** 0.44 0.81 1.36 

2006** 1.03 0.66 0.05

2007** 0.01 0.04 -0.36

2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 

2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 

2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 

2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97

[bluewave]

^^^^^

 

Very unusual pattern for this time of year as the the impressive early March WWB wind pattern

has reversed very quickly. You can see a similar reversal of the SOI to more positive now. The

cooler waters off South America were able to creep a little further west this week and maintain

a nice spread between Nino 1-2 and 4.

 

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Noticed you deleted your post from the ENSO thread, feel free to PM if you want deleted. Personally, I think it's the most useful post i've read in weeks.

 

Still early in the year for ENSO changes.

 

It may be too late to stop the bleeding, for those who think the recent SOI reversal can prevent a major event.

 

 

 

This process tends to be extremely efficient because of what we call the thermocline, or the area in the ocean that represents the changes between the warmer surface water and the colder waters at large depths. The thermocline tends to be very close to the surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, but at large depths in the Western Equatorial Pacific. Thus, there is often a much more readily available source of cold water to be upwelled further east, but that is not the case further west. However, if enough westerly wind burst progression occurs, the warm water that gets pushed east and downwells will replace the colder water to the east, and change the entire state of the thermocline — making it deeper further east. That way, during any upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave, the waters being brought up to the surface are still warm.  This is what helps to sustain an El Nino event, as opposed to just leading to minor short time-scale fluctuations. Once we see the warmer downwelling waters being pushed very far eastward in association with a strong westerly wind burst, as well as the slope of the thermocline decreasing, that’s when we begin to get concerned about a very strong El Nino.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's to early to tell because models will be hampered big time by how much snow cover there is this week over parts of Russia.

 

But this gives us a rough idea of how far North the warm and large region of sun will reach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Noticed you deleted your post from the ENSO thread, feel free to PM if you want deleted. Personally, I think it's the most useful post i've read in weeks.

 

Still early in the year for ENSO changes.

 

It may be too late to stop the bleeding, for those who think the recent SOI reversal can prevent a major event.

 

I was trying to edit it and messed up the formatting so I just deleted it. It will be interesting to see what happens

in the next few months as we get past the spring forecast barrier.