StudentOfClimatology Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Now that we're in the new year of 2014, someone mentioned a new temp thread should be started. So, what are your thoughts? My prediction is if we develop a moderate niño or higher, we will set a new global temp record on UAH or GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 DonS will probably start at projection thread at some point, but if we are doing that here to start... Predictions for 2014 GISS: .65 Above 1950-1980 baseline UAH: .3 Above 1980-2010 baseline I expect neutral conditions until late summer in which then we MIGHT be able to have a weak nino by october. This is all speculative of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Any updates one how 2014 has started out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Any updates one how 2014 has started out? Pretty much 0.00 on weatherbell maps right now through the first 6 days (that would equate to about +0.55 on GISS). Still early obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Global SSTA are about a few weeks and currently 0.05 to .075C above last years anomalies. Probably much cooler on UAH like .15C or so and about .60C on giss is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Weather-bell is the coolest it has been to start a month at -.007C through the first week. It looks like things cool off a bit more the next few days. Then I expect things to get warmer slowly because there isn't cold enough waters out there. Nor an insane PV over Southern Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Weather-bell is the coolest it has been to start a month at -.007C through the first week. It looks like things cool off a bit more the next few days. Then I expect things to get warmer slowly because there isn't cold enough waters out there. Nor an insane PV over Southern Eurasia. Just an observation, there are always massive spikes in sea surface temperature anomalies after the summer solstice in the southern and northern hemispheres. This year is getting off to a warm start down there. Cold pool off South America keeping it out of record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 You are right. Way warmer than 2011. And a few weeks ahead of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 As I expected, CFS goes el nino and begins torching the oceans everywhere. The longer we go without an el nino the more severe the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Daily CFS has moved up to .15 to .20C the last day. The montly dipped down to 0.007C but is now up to 0.016C and will rise rapidly if the dailies stay above .15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The dailies are back up to .23C or so. That was nice reprieve from near record warmth while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 CFS has exploded upwards the last couple of days. Sitting at .25C or so on the dailies and is up to .051C on the monthlies which is equivalent to a .60C on GISS. January of 2013 was a .63C on giss. It will probably end up around that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CFS is up to a .074C now. Sitting around .275C on the dailies for three days now. I expected a warm up but not like this. The NPAC is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As I expected, CFS goes el nino and begins torching the oceans everywhere. The longer we go without an el nino the more severe the response. Hope you're right. California is running on empty & needs a fill-up. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CFS is up to a .074C now. Sitting around .275C on the dailies for three days now. I expected a warm up but not like this. The NPAC is on fire. That warm pool in the NPAC has been semi-persistent for about a year or more. I don't think it is even possible to remove such SST anomalies quickly. 3+ C anomalies over water is alot of thermal energy. In many ways it's becoming a second el nino event since it keeps expanding every month due to the massive record EPO block. The entire area is simply torching along with other regions near the Arctic and in the Southern Hemisphere. You will have big problems when the ocean transitions from a net absorber of heat to a net re-leaser of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 it has totally offset the recent ENSO 3-4 cooling. We never see cold pools get so big and anomalous anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 it has totally offset the recent ENSO 3-4 cooling. We never see cold pools get so big and anomalous anymore. Those are the warmest December into January SST's on record for that small section of the NE Pacific under the record breaking ridge. December time series Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Those are the warmest December into January SST's on record for that small section of the NE Pacific under the record breaking ridge. December time series Your right. Unfortunately it seems if the ridge breaks down or moves the large area of warmth will just move somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Those are the warmest December into January SST's on record for that small section of the NE Pacific under the record breaking ridge. December time series DEC.png Using such a targeted breakdown, isn't it possible to find a record just about any year at any one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That warm pool in the NPAC has been semi-persistent for about a year or more. I don't think it is even possible to remove such SST anomalies quickly. 3+ C anomalies over water is alot of thermal energy. In many ways it's becoming a second el nino event since it keeps expanding every month due to the massive record EPO block. The entire area is simply torching along with other regions near the Arctic and in the Southern Hemisphere. You will have big problems when the ocean transitions from a net absorber of heat to a net re-leaser of heat. While it looks compelling on the anomalies, the amount of heat released into the atmosphere during a ENSO spike is much more than that of a NPAC spike. There is so much more heat at stake in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Using such a targeted breakdown, isn't it possible to find a record just about any year at any one point? Yes, you can pick any spot on the globe and create a chart for it. We saw record warmth in the North Atlantic during 2010 in association with the record low AO. Temperatures have fallen off there with the decline in blocking this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Using such a targeted breakdown, isn't it possible to find a record just about any year at any one point? I'm guessing more regions would have record highs rather than record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm guessing more regions would have record highs rather than record lows. I guess it depends on how much faith you put into a OHC measuring network that operated on 1/100th the resolution before 2003. I don't have much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Somewhat irrelevant since post-ARGO temps are higher than pre-ARGO. The rate of increase trend seems logical when dealing with a slow process like OHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Somewhat irrelevant since post-ARGO temps are higher than pre-argo. The rate of increase trend seems logical when dealing with a slow process like OHC. They are, but who knows where we really started from. You would laugh if you saw the monitoring network today to even 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 They are, but who knows where we really started from. You would laugh if you saw the monitoring network today to even 10 years ago. There is no direct correlation between global temps and OHC but I imagine there is a general consensus trend between them. OHC was probably much lower pre-1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 There is no direct correlation between global temps and OHC but I imagine there is a general consensus trend between them. OHC was probably much lower pre-1990. OHC was sky-rocketing upward until a higher resolution measuring network started up. Actually, ARGO showed a drop in OHC and is currently adjusted UPWARD to the level you see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 OHC was sky-rocketing upward until a higher resolution measuring network started up. Actually, ARGO showed a drop in OHC and is currently adjusted UPWARD to the level you see now. I would not be surprised if the drop is just an anomaly and that we have been on a continuous OHC increase for decades. 1998 El Nino probably fooled the low resolution observations, which exaggerated the warm anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So the Argo data is being manipulated too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So the Argo data is being manipulated too? Yep, that's the canard we still like to hang on to in this subforum when data doesn't agree with our viewpoint/worldview. Those elite scientists are part of the socialist conspiracy, dontcha know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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