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Surprise Ice Event across the CAD areas of NC/SC?


BullCityWx

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just like here, it's really warm right off the surface over the nc piedmont per soundings.... even with all that precip.

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CAE......

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
IMPULSES WILL MOVE NE INTO SC AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH A DRY OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

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Parts of central NC could be in for a big surprise if 18zNAM precip is right. Some places showing over .50 of precip. Of course temps may hold at 33-34 though and it's just a cold rain.

Temps go right above freezing as soon as the precip starts. You may start out as freezing drizzle, then it changes over to rain.
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Parts of central NC could be in for a big surprise if 18zNAM precip is right. Some places showing over .50 of precip. Of course temps may hold at 33-34 though and it's just a cold rain.

 

Too warm. Need to be further west closer to the mountains but not too far west to see no moisture. Winston Salem area needs to be included in the advisory.

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It certainly looks and feels like we could get some wintry precip. Funny thing is these little surprises usually are when we actually get something around here. It rarely pans out if the models show something more than 48 hours out.

Just a suggestion, but maybe put that this event is for tonight in the thread title.

NWS Raleigh has 34 and rain for Raleigh. :) You have a rain/snow mix in the forecast for Monday.
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It certainly looks and feels like we could get some wintry precip. Funny thing is these little surprises usually are when we actually get something around here. It rarely pans out if the models show something more than 48 hours out.

Just a suggestion, but maybe put that this event is for tonight in the thread title.

 

 

Used to be we sweated for 48 hours to bring home a storm :axe: , NOW we can't find 12 hours of notice before some kind of event :clap: !!!

Thinking the sdame thing Brickster..

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33/ 11. How it rains tonight and doesnt drop into the upper 20's at onset is beyond me. Guess Rah NWS counting on light precip/no precip/late start time/warm surge ? Oh well be interesting to watch.

Light precipitation/ warm surge. The places with the freezing rain advisory are the areas that will get the freezing rain. An area or two outside of those areas may have a shot a some light freezing rain/drizzle.
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I guess the temp is going to roar upward tonight in this neck of the woods. 37/10 right now.

Dps are slowly coming up... Have been around 10 today now at 12.

 

Guess we can officially say it has started to ice or not to ice is the ??  Light returns showing up on radar south of Columbia, SC

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

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Dps are slowly coming up... Have been around 10 today now at 12.

 

Guess we can officially say it has started to ice or not to ice is the ??  Light returns showing up on radar south of Columbia, SC

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

just saw someone say it was drizzling in blythewood which is the north side of town. 

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Light precipitation/ warm surge. The places with the freezing rain advisory are the areas that will get the freezing rain. An area or two outside of those areas may have a shot a some light freezing rain/drizzle.

I appreciate you weighing in our situation up here responding to my post and a couple of others in this thread. I've noticed you invest a lot every time a threat comes to my region.  :arrowhead:

 

If precip develops tonight this will be an insutu-cad situation. The only way MBY would warm above freezing would be (A)latent heat release from rain freezing  or (B)top-down which would require heavier than forecasted qpf. Both situations could only occur if A or B happened first. Which imo would warrant a freezing rain advisory. So Rah must be banking on lack of qpf.

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So Rah must be banking on lack of qpf.

 

If the latest models hadn't come in warmer there would be an advisory...but all in all it probably just delayed it for the Winston area I still think there could be one.

 

as of 255 PM Saturday...

The latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the western

Atlantic and a wedge front beginning to develop over the state.

Isentropic lift associated with the in situ cad has already begun to

help spread stratus clouds over the area from SW to NE. Moisture in

the low levels will eventually increase enough to cause light

precipitation to break out over the area with the western Piedmont

the most favored area due to strongest lift. With low level dry air

taking a long time to saturate...this precipitation may take a while

to form and is not anticipated to get going until after 6z Sunday.

At this time temperatures in The Triad will be hovering around

freezing and it is possible that some patchy freezing rain may occur

between the hours of 6 and 12z. Confidence in this is low at this

time as the latest run of models has come in a degree or two warmer

which will hinder freezing rain development even further. Lows

tonight in the low 30s northwest to upper 30s southeast. 

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