BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The 12z NAM came in with a very icy solution across the NC and SC Foothills and Piedmont areas. Things in favor of this event: relatively light precip amounts(.10-.15) thus limiting any quick warmup as precip falls very cold ground temps(close to freezing across most of NC west of 77) very cold antecedent airmass cloudcover rolled in early to potentially keep temperatures down event occurs with the sun down Things not in favor of this event: No parent high to reinforce cold air Southerly Flow Freezing Rain is a self limiting process in most cases Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wetbulbs should be aob freezing which will help as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see some WWAs go up this evening/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kakh.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kfqd.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 You might wonder what the big deal is with a tenth of an inch of QPF that's ice but if that verifies, there could be serious travel impacts across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 AS OF 645 AM...OF NOTE...THE 06Z NAM (WHICH IS INITIALIZING THECLOUD DECK FAIRLY WELL)...HAS COME IN MUCH WETTER AND COLDER FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. I TWEAKED POPS UP FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING...SINCE THE CAMPOP SUPPORTS THE NAM. AS FOR OVERNIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...I/M STILL SKEPTICAL OF THE NAM...BUT THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. GSP agrees with your assessment. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/PRODUCTS/afd.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kakh.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kfqd.txt Queencitywx, you've got to help me out with these airport codes, man. The big ones are obvious, but where is kakh and kfqd? Could you reference the actual cities when you post these sounding data? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Queencitywx, you've got to help me out with these airport codes, man. The big ones are obvious, but where is kakh and kfqd? Could you reference the actual cities when you post these sounding data? TIA those are gastonia and rutherfordton, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I just like winter weather, so I would like to see this little even occur. The thing that worries me is: the southerly flow- raising dewpoints before precip arrives, and temps getting up to 36-38 degrees today, below forecast , but clouds not letting temps fall below freezing tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GSP had ZR in the forecast for the southern NC Piedmont for days, now they've switched to rain when it looks like we could get ZR? Someone explain the logic, it's escaped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kakh.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kfqd.txt that .11 would cause some damage. Thanks for posting KFQD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Current temp 33 with a dp of 11. Looking like a legit threat! Should only get 2 or 3 more degrees of heating. Just have to see how much moisture we can get up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the euro agrees with the NAM on the ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 As Mackerel said above since this cloud cover has came over in our area, im just wondering too if temps will fall far enough. with being said we do have very low DPs and that should allow some evaporational cooling which should allow wet bulb temps to fall below freezing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ever the eternal optimist, even though the odds of anything down my way are near zero, I can't help but notice the rather large area of clearing moving up from S Ga. Just for kicks, I'll watch with interest to see if after a solid cloud deck all day, if a few hours of fair skies this evening rolls in and puts me in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 32, DP 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 32 dp 10...hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not much of a surprise the NWS has been on top of it. A day or two ago they said possible freezing rain advisories in the AFD's. I think they follow the WPC guidance and they have been showing ice probs for days now. Highest in the NC foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Im showing 34 with a DP of 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not much of a surprise the NWS has been on top of it. A day or two ago they said possible freezing rain advisories in the AFD's. I think they follow the WPC guidance and they have been showing ice probs for days now. Highest in the NC foothills. The simulated radar shows moisture going from barely GSP through Charlotte then NE . Looks like it misses most of NC foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You might wonder what the big deal is with a tenth of an inch of QPF that's ice but if that verifies, there could be serious travel impacts across the region. One thing that will make this a little more of a big deal is the cold ground. Without sunshine today, the roads will not have a chance to warm all that much. Combine that with an early am time frame and you have more of an event than the total precip numbers would indicate. Going to be interesting to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We have had sunshine all day but temps around 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You might wonder what the big deal is with a tenth of an inch of QPF that's ice but if that verifies, there could be serious travel impacts across the region. Have sort of been keeping an eye on tonight as this set up has been known to generate a little ice. While the lack of good qpf is keeping optimism tempered you are so right. As cold as it has been even freezing drizzle could cause driving issues. A couple of dec ago there was like maybe .05 frz drizzle not forecasted and there were more wrecks than with snow. Will be interesting to see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The simulated radar shows moisture going from barely GSP through Charlotte then NE . Looks like it misses most of NC foothills Looking at the NAM/EURO the cutoff line will be in the mountains. GFS is being discounted too far east according to NWS Raleigh. Temp profiles also best the further west. Simulated radar probably not picking up on the upslope. Revised temperatures have implications for ptype overnight. With the deck appearing more solid than suggested by earlier models and holding temperatures a few degrees warmer...freezing rain looks to be restricted to a smaller area...mainly the NC foothills. Not yet having full 12z guidance suite...I declined to make changes to quantitative precipitation forecast or ice accums at this time. There is still the question of how much cloud cover really survives the day and how much temperatures are affected this evening by this...as well as by any evaporational cooling at onset of rain. Thus I will do some more investigation before proceeding with any advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC417 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014NCZ007-021>024-038-039-050930-PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-417 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BEPOSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD AND THE FAR NORTHERNPIEDMONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE MONDAY INTOTUESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLSTO THE AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN5 AND 10 DEGREES. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 20S.WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 7 BELOW ZERO AND ZERO ARE EXPECTEDBETWEEN 200 AM AND NOON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We have had sunshine all day but temps around 35. Interesting.... we have had overcast skies since mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This is a couple of hours old, but GSP has their eyes open now. 1215 PM UPDATE...STRATUS HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE MTNS...A FACT SUGGESTED BY SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER MOIST LAYER SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR SOME CLOUDS TO OVERRUN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CLEAR AREA...WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE LIKELY TO RAISE THEM FURTHER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING UNDER THE CLOUD DECK THRU THE AFTN. WILL TAKE VERY CLOSE LOOK AT OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS WELL AS QPF FOR AFTN PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looking at the NAM/EURO the cutoff line will be in the mountains. GFS is being discounted too far east according to NWS Raleigh. Temp profiles also best the further west. Simulated radar probably not picking up on the upslope. Revised temperatures have implications for ptype overnight. With the deck appearing more solid than suggested by earlier models and holding temperatures a few degrees warmer...freezing rain looks to be restricted to a smaller area...mainly the NC foothills. Not yet having full 12z guidance suite...I declined to make changes to quantitative precipitation forecast or ice accums at this time. There is still the question of how much cloud cover really survives the day and how much temperatures are affected this evening by this...as well as by any evaporational cooling at onset of rain. Thus I will do some more investigation before proceeding with any advisory. Our dew point is 10 degrees. and a surface temp of 35. Current WB is roughly 26.7 degrees. Don't know if enough precip will fall to saturate the atmosphere, but if it does we will surely have freezing rain here. That is, unless dewpoints rise and the temps remain constant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Used to be we sweated for 48 hours to bring home a storm , NOW we can't find 12 hours of notice before some kind of event !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ever the eternal optimist, even though the odds of anything down my way are near zero, I can't help but notice the rather large area of clearing moving up from S Ga. Just for kicks, I'll watch with interest to see if after a solid cloud deck all day, if a few hours of fair skies this evening rolls in and puts me in the game. You are as much "in the game" as anyone else. Temps and dewpoints are pretty much the same everywhere and tonights temps will be fairly uniform as well. Even if you get some clear skies and the temperature dropped, as soon it clouds back over your temp would go back up. In fact, even though right now it's pretty cold and dry at the surface after looking at it more closely, it's so warm aloft and close to the ground, I'm thinking now it might not do anything at all except for areas north of 85, the upstate, and western nc but even there 950mb temps are 4 or 5c, even in charlotte. Normally if temps are as warm as they are so close to the surface, it will be just a cold rain even though temps/dewpoints initially support freezing rain since the cold is so shallow. But since the precip is so light, maybe it will give it a chance because if it's heavier at all, warmer temps aloft would quickly mix out or warm any subfreezing layer I would think. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Temp now is 35 with a dp of 18. That's up from 12 earlier. Temp has been more or less steady the last 2 hours. So I might hit 36 today with some other places, like gainesville, maybe not getting above 34...they are still 33. FFC was forecasting 44 today last night and as late as this morning 42 so a decent size bust in temps it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You are as much "in the game" as anyone else. Temps and dewpoints are pretty much the same everywhere and tonights temps will be fairly uniform as well. Even if you get some clear skies and the temperature dropped, as soon it clouds back over your temp would go back up. In fact, even though right now it's pretty cold and dry at the surface after looking at it more closely, it's so warm aloft and close to the ground, I'm thinking now it might not do anything at all except for areas north of 85, the upstate, and western nc but even there 950mb temps are 4 or 5c, even in charlotte. Normally if temps are as warm as they are so close to the surface, it will be just a cold rain even though temps/dewpoints initially support freezing rain since the cold is so shallow. But since the precip is so light, maybe it will give it a chance because if it's heavier at all, warmer temps aloft would quickly mix out or warm any subfreezing layer I would think. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Temp now is 35 with a dp of 18. That's up from 12 earlier. Temp has been more or less steady the last 2 hours. So I might hit 36 today with some other places, like gainesville, maybe not getting above 34...they are still 33. FFC was forecasting 44 today last night and as late as this morning 42 so a decent size bust in temps it would appear. to your point its 39 here at 2500 feet. Of course we have had sunshine all day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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