CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I agree with just about everything you say here. I know I always edit our preset calls-to-action to make sure they fit the situation (i.e. no large hail wording with a squall line, etc). This doesn't help, that we as a region do poorly with updating SVRs with follow up statements. I looked back after I saw this graphic and we had some seasons with nearly 3/4ths of the SVRs without an update. Every TOR we issued on 6/1/11 didn't have an update! It's a great way to remove errors, and there is no rule that they can't be issued immediately following a SVR. It's also a great way to update as conditions change within the warning (hail size goes up or down, winds become stronger/weaker). 1002420_10101080776561905_419922462_n.jpg We also should be making greater use of NWSChat and social media when it comes to warnings. AWIPS II coming on board soonish will also give us an opportunity to re-work our calls-to-action too. I just chuckle when I see what OUN does on NWSChat during an event. It's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I just chuckle when I see what OUN does on NWSChat during an event. It's nuts. Seriously. They're sending messages about storms they are "watching" and what they expect their evolution will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Seriously. They're sending messages about storms they are "watching" and what they expect their evolution will be. I don't know how they do it (plus a prolific and incredible twitter acct). And their CWA is also gigantic. Anyways... I'm excited for svr season! Even our lame SNE convection I find fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't know how they do it (plus a prolific and incredible twitter acct). And their CWA is also gigantic. Anyways... I'm excited for svr season! Even our lame SNE convection I find fun. It's pretty easy when they're all junkies for that stuff. I'm sure they're just like me and would come in and do that stuff for free if asked. I don't think we're as highly motivated in this region to have a well-oiled severe weather program. Pushing through the idea of verification (making phone calls for reports rather than the other way around) and follow up statements was a hard enough sell here. Social media presence is the next hill to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's pretty easy when they're all junkies for that stuff. I'm sure they're just like me and would come in and do that stuff for free if asked. I don't think we're as highly motivated in this region to have a well-oiled severe weather program. Pushing through the idea of verification (making phone calls for reports rather than the other way around) and follow up statements was a hard enough sell here. Social media presence is the next hill to take. I find this fun to do lol. Although sometimes it can be quite hard to get a detailed enough description of what you're asking for. The overnight posts in this thread between you and Ryan were fantastic. I agree with all points. I do feel as well we have seen more warnings for borderline or below storms the past few years. What would be really nice to see is a verification percentage of all warnings issued dating back for say 5 years or so. I've also noticed we've seen an increase in warnings being issued well in advance of storms. I completely understand and believe this is a great idea b/c the goal is always as much lead time as possible but we've seen warnings extended so far out that by the time the storms approach those areas they are basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 You guys just gave me a great idea!!!! How possible is it to obtain the number of severe warnings issued say for like the past 3 years or so along with the date of each warning issuance as well as the time? What you could then do is obtain a list of all severe reports for each of the dates and match the times with the length of the warnings...although I would think the NWS probably has the stats on warning verification's which would ease the work load. Then you could get radar data for each event and take a look at dbz's, VIL's, storm top height and some other variables. Would be a cool little presentation for the conference!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The videos on Youtube from Chasercon are pretty great. Check out Howie Bluestein and Chuck Doswell on El Reno. Worth a watch if you have a couple hours. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzb-AIDCGC4&t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The videos on Youtube from Chasercon are pretty great. Check out Howie Bluestein and Chuck Doswell on El Reno. Worth a watch if you have a couple hours. Good stuff. I remember seeing Bluestein's radar along the side of the highway leaving the area southeast of the El Reno storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Good stuff. I remember seeing Bluestein's radar along the side of the highway leaving the area southeast of the El Reno storm. All the anticyclonic tornado stuff picked up by the RAX is really interesting. It's amazing how much we don't know about tornadogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Will try and watch tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 SO CLOSE!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mentally I kind of check out of winter around March 1...with marginal or light events no longer really an interest to me here along the shoreline. With the warm up this week...I expect to officially be ready for spring after tomorrow's snow event. Unfortunately we still have to get through March and April...my least favorite months of the year weather-wise. Can only hope we have another March like 2012...that was an epic stretch of early warmth that really helped get through the post-winter funk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mentally I kind of check out of winter around March 1...with marginal or light events no longer really an interest to me here along the shoreline. With the warm up this week...I expect to officially be ready for spring after tomorrow's snow event. Unfortunately we still have to get through March and April...my least favorite months of the year weather-wise. Can only hope we have another March like 2012...that was an epic stretch of early warmth that really helped get through the post-winter funk. I'm looking forward to warmer weather myself...the cold/wind get annoying after a while. I just want to be able to go outside and enjoy myself and not have to freeze at the bus stop in the morning going to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 hoping to see my third tornado this year that would be awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Only 69 days to go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Mentally I kind of check out of winter around March 1...with marginal or light events no longer really an interest to me here along the shoreline. With the warm up this week...I expect to officially be ready for spring after tomorrow's snow event. Unfortunately we still have to get through March and April...my least favorite months of the year weather-wise. Can only hope we have another March like 2012...that was an epic stretch of early warmth that really helped get through the post-winter funk.+1Unless we truly continue winter this march, bring on summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 This time next week it will be March and we'll only have one more full month until May!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Some of the talk in the March thread yesterday got me thinking. I remember from out at DVN that they found severe weather season to be more active in parts of the Midwest coming out of a La Nina. Now I know technically we've been ENSO neutral, but the background state has been a little more Nina-like. It certainly appears we're headed more towards the warm phase now, so I'll be curious to see how the severe season plays out now (other than still very meh up here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Some of the talk in the March thread yesterday got me thinking. I remember from out at DVN that they found severe weather season to be more active in parts of the Midwest coming out of a La Nina. Now I know technically we've been ENSO neutral, but the background state has been a little more Nina-like. It certainly appears we're headed more towards the warm phase now, so I'll be curious to see how the severe season plays out now (other than still very meh up here). I've been thinking...for the better part of winter we've seen a pattern configuration which has featured more in the way of ridging across the west and troughing here in the East...while we have seen troughs push into the west at times and progress through the country, more of the troughs have pushed in from Canada and moved south and east through the Plains. Basically...seeing a pattern configuration similar through the next few months could really hinder severe weather season across the Plains, however, it could lead to increased activity across the southeastern United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I've been thinking...for the better part of winter we've seen a pattern configuration which has featured more in the way of ridging across the west and troughing here in the East...while we have seen troughs push into the west at times and progress through the country, more of the troughs have pushed in from Canada and moved south and east through the Plains. Basically...seeing a pattern configuration similar through the next few months could really hinder severe weather season across the Plains, however, it could lead to increased activity across the southeastern United States Still a couple months until the Plains are supposed to be active, there's time. What we don't want is cold fronts to continually drive to the Gulf and scour out the building warmth there. That is the pool for high dews. If it is below normal SST there it makes moisture return that much harder for areas north of OUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Still a couple months until the Plains are supposed to be active, there's time. What we don't want is cold fronts to continually drive to the Gulf and scour out the building warmth there. That is the pool for high dews. If it is below normal SST there it makes moisture return that much harder for areas north of OUN. Yeah that's something else to really watch over the next month-plus. Also want to start seeing some stronger +SSTA values in the Gulf of Mexico as well but that is something that can turn around rather quickly...as long as you don't have those often driving cold fronts like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Some of the talk in the March thread yesterday got me thinking. I remember from out at DVN that they found severe weather season to be more active in parts of the Midwest coming out of a La Nina. Now I know technically we've been ENSO neutral, but the background state has been a little more Nina-like. It certainly appears we're headed more towards the warm phase now, so I'll be curious to see how the severe season plays out now (other than still very meh up here). There was a recent paper by Thompson and Roundy that found tornado outbreaks were more likely during phase 2 MJO events. I wonder if those are more common transitioning towards a warmer ENSO state. Here's the paper: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00173.1?prevSearch=roundy+tornado&searchHistoryKey= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Probably because of a SW ULL. The killer are those PNA ridges out west. Usually La Nina favors those Dixie Alley outbreaks like we saw in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Maybe this is the year I see a repeat of July 21 1962 or May 19 1964.... What do you think wiz? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Maybe this is the year I see a repeat of July 21 1962 or May 19 1964.... What do you think wiz? Lol. why not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 why not lol I was surprised to find any in my area, including an apparent F3 on 9/29/74. (But that was more in northern Essex county I'm pretty sure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 May 1st is never going to come weather wise at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 TWO MONTHS TO GO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Barring some major pattern shift, the severe weather season overall across the central and eastern CONUS may start sluggish. There's still plenty of time to things to change and all it takes is one major event to leave a mark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I can't wait until May 1st where I can start to make fun of the severe wx weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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