Herb@MAWS Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Didn't see a thread on this, so what the hey! Seems like with temps in the 20s and onset of precip Sunday morning, maybe a wintry mix or ZR for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Frz drizzle overnight is becoming more likely. I love frz drizzle. It lays a sneaky coat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm all for it. I really want to preserve at least some of my snowpack for Monday night. Might not get out of the 30's before fropa but the rain will take its toll for sure. It will be interesting to see how low temps can drop tonight before waa clouds move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I don't event think we can get sleet in this setup so it's all timing based probably. Maybe some in situ cad but temps should be warm enough after sunrise. Could be some slick spots tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12Z NAM has 0.13" of FZRA for tomorrow here. Would be enough to make the trees pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm in HGR visiting my sis...maybe I can get a little bit of fun before heading back to the heat island tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Even the threat of Freezing drizzle, we got our butts out and took down the outside holiday decorations. I did not want to deal with having frozen precip on it and having to keep it up for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 259 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014 MDZ007-009>011-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-052-053-501-502-WVZ051>053- 050400- /O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0001.140105T1100Z-140105T1700Z/ HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK... FAIRFAX...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN 259 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH. * TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES AT ONSET...SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...A COLD GROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT...PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know it'll never happen, but I'd be interested in seeing NWS go away from county based warning/advisory system. They kinda already do it for Baltimore County by splitting it into Northern and Southern halves. Really no reason why they couldn't do it for other counties, although I suppose its probably not worth the trouble. I doubt there will be any difference between the amount of freezing drizzle/rain that I receive vs. say, Elkridge in eastern Howard County. Sorry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know it'll never happen, but I'd be interested in seeing NWS go away from county based warning/advisory system. They kinda already do it for Baltimore County by splitting it into Northern and Southern halves. Really no reason why they couldn't do it for other counties, although I suppose its probably not worth the trouble. I doubt there will be any difference between the amount of freezing drizzle/rain that I receive vs. say, Elkridge in eastern Howard County. Sorry for the rant. I was going to side with you and say AAco is in the same boat, however, I don't know if it would make much of a difference in their forecasts or not. It seems they don't know much about nuttin'. We all know where to come for our weather reports and nowcasts. So, my point -NOAA is not the end all /be all just because they say this county has a warning and this one doesn't. Just look at this past storm- they had me at 1-3 inches and I got 5-6 inches and the Advisory didn't come until after the storm got started. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z NAM has .23 ZR for IAD through 1PM...I'd think that is overdone, but temps could end up lower than simulated with the cold ground and snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's cold enough...I guess temps rise as precip comes in but it's gonna be low 20s to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This is not an event I want to see overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 22.1 now. Not sure I get much colder. Anything that falls will freeze for a couple hours. Prob a non event after 9am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 20 here, but cloudiness developing should limit the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 22.1 now. Not sure I get much colder. Anything that falls will freeze for a couple hours. Prob a non event after 9am or so. I'm thinking once the clouds move in temps rise and will rise faster at the onset of precip my area never does "well" and the warm air floods in faster than the models say 98% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm thinking once the clouds move in temps rise and will rise faster at the onset of precip my area never does "well" and the warm air floods in faster than the models say 98% of the time I agree. Especially after sunrise. Even with a cold start this one will be low impact. Wouldn't mind a glaze on the snow to try and keep it around as best as possible for Monday night. Won't have full coverage of course but there might be some decent leftovers to get all glacial and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The NWS national radar looks weird. I've never seen such a straight streak of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 hard to believe that the 7PM 850 temps are well above freezing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_000_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=000&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 was never like this for the past 4 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 18 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 27/14 here. This is one example of good fortune in living where I do. The clouds will easily cause my temp to rise to 33 degrees overnight, and at any rate any precip I get will be light until the warm air scours out the present airmass. I really feel for the folks farther north and in elevated valleys where the cold air will hang tough, and where freezing rain will accrete the longest. I also have a SSE wind that's bringing in milder air already. With any luck, I'll rise above freezing overnight, then just get plain rain all day Sunday with the forecast high of 45. Sometimes, I love living in the southern Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 20 here, but cloudiness developing should limit the drop.Terrible nowcasting in this post. Down to 14 and dropping steadily.Skies cleared off again and barometer is steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 18, my forecast low is 26. Should be interesting when the rain starts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 18, my forecast low is 26. Should be interesting when the rain starts tomorrow. Looks like the chance of anything early is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 19.5. Low deck approaching from the south. my micro climate in full force at the bottom of a bowl. expect to jump up in temperature very soon. Being at 245 elevation when surrounding areas are 390 all around me is like fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Up to 29.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Inversion breaking. Quickly up to 22.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't know how accurate Wunderground is with temp readings, but my nearest station in Reisterstown is recording 16 degrees (compared to the 25 it's showing on the NWS site). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm at 17 right now. Station in Perry Hall right down road from me has 17.8 so my station should be correct. I know exactly where the station is located as shown by Google maps on WUnderground. I notice my area usually is 2 degrees cooler from Perry Hall proper which is pretty cool climatologicaly. Anyways, with sky still clear in some areas, I can see it being a bit tougher to rebound temp wise. Areas to my north around Cockeysville up toward Parkton and Monkton may stay below freezing till around 1-3pm tomorrow before the SE winds finally break the threshold of cold air at the surface. It doesn't take much to cause issues with ZR putting a glaze over everything, so morning could be treacherous. Stay safe all. Should be interesting to see how temps respond in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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