mitchnick Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM showing it well now trough is tilting negative as it approaches us http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 surprisingly, NAM has the surface a bit above freezing GFS has had this event and always showed surface temps at or below once it began, so hopefully NAM is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Arctic fronts in general come in with a bang and some surprises, this one especially so as it will blow into a moist air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It'll probably mostly come down to coverage and rates. Getting snow to stick to snow (where it lasts, which might be some everywhere at this rate) is relatively easy at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 it looks to be like non accumulating snow with sfc too warm when it falls...hopefully we can get some snow squalls/showers to lag back and hit us once we go below...we probably will, but they might be localized and in the favored locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think some squalls will happen, stuff like 1" in 20-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think some squalls will happen, stuff like 1" in 20-30 minutes. that'd be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think some squalls will happen, stuff like 1" in 20-30 minutes. I hope so. Those are the best especially since we don't see fronts like this very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The wind may blow it all around (unfortunately). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think some squalls will happen, stuff like 1" in 20-30 minutes. Those would be cool to see.. we don't get that very often down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 for hypothetical timing purposes, would this event be during the day Monday or in the early morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 for hypothetical timing purposes, would this event be during the day Monday or in the early morning? 8am-ish - 11am-ish it looks like. Tomorrow this time passage of the front and any anafrontal precip will be better known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the Maryland Convergence Zone for good snows with the arctic fropa. Also the usual higher elevation suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think some squalls will happen, stuff like 1" in 20-30 minutes. would be like violent thunderstorms in winter lol but instead of torrential rains , it would be very heavy snow for about a half hour putting down a quick inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be coming down horizontally so it's going to be hard to get it to stick anywhere but the sides of buildings. This is mainly a windchill event. I can see there being a few squalls behind the front though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be coming down horizontally so it's going to be hard to get it to stick anywhere but the sides of buildings. This is mainly a windchill event. I can see there being a few squalls behind the front though. gonna be a lot of flash freezing too. as temps will tank hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 would be like violent thunderstorms in winter lol but instead of torrential rains , it would be very heavy snow for about a half hour putting down a quick inch Kinda what Howie said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Guidance doesn't get the surface below freezing before main precip from the front is well east of us from what im seeing. We would have some snow but it prob wouldn't stick if that happens. I'm kinda bearish on the prospect of stickage. I hope.tomorrow's ice helps preserve my snowpack. Sub zero or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wind with snow is my absolute favorite. The higher the wind the better. If this pans out I'm gonna enjoy it more than 2 inches of boring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's patently obvious how important a block is. This arctic outbreak is going to be in and out so fast its unbelievable. I'd take 4 inches of snow with a week of highs around 32, lows around 24 with a block. It really does not matter how incredibly cold an arctic airmass is, what the southern Mid Atlantic needs is decent blocking. Without a block we're toast. We're going to punt the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Guidance doesn't get the surface below freezing before main precip from the front is well east of us from what im seeing. We would have some snow but it prob wouldn't stick if that happens. I'm kinda bearish on the prospect of stickage. I hope.tomorrow's ice helps preserve my snowpack. Sub zero or bust Euro doesn't get the area below freezing at the surface until 18z despite 850's being good way before that. Looks like precip shuts off by late morning so maybe an hour or two of snow but it's hard to tell. Most models are under .10 qpf. The question will be what variety the snow takes. Will it be light showery or a more organized burst. The wildcard will be whether the atmosphere squeezes out some heavier snow showers or even an intense short squall once the cold air is here for real sometime in the early to mid afternoon. Fronts with this kind of power usually deliver a surprise for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Best arctic front I can remember happened here back around 2004 or so. It was a day that I took my wife to work because we were going shopping afterward. When we left the house that morning, it was 62 degrees and raining. By the time we got to her work 40 minutes away in it was in the low 40's with snow mixing in with the rain. Then, by the time I got back home, the temp had crashed to 28 degrees with heavy snow, and about a quarter to half inch on the ground. It didn't last long and I don't even think we got over 2 inches from it, but the temperature crash and the changeover to heavy snow was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's patently obvious how important a block is. This arctic outbreak is going to be in and out so fast its unbelievable. I'd take 4 inches of snow with a week of highs around 32, lows around 24 with a block. It really does not matter how incredibly cold an arctic airmass is, what the southern Mid Atlantic needs is decent blocking. Without a block we're toast. We're going to punt the rest of the month. I'm actually kinda glad the cold will be transient. Scary cold like that worries me if it goes on and on too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 NAM is backing down like I asked it for a date I suspect the others will follow oh well, better luck next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm actually kinda glad the cold will be transient. Scary cold like that worries me if it goes on and on too long. The folks up in the northern plains need a break too. Some of my relatives live in Wisconsin. They have been well below normal for temps for some time now. They are forecast to fall to -32 degrees with -55 windchills (for overnight lows, that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 NAM is backing down like I asked it for a date I suspect the others will follow oh well, better luck next time Don't give up Mitch. Fronts like this can sometimes be potent little suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12 Z GFS looks a bit more promising for this one. Hopefully we can get a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12 Z GFS looks a bit more promising for this one. Hopefully we can get a quick inch. Don't see it. The sruface temp is still plus 5C at 12Z. its zero line lags the 850 zero line. You may gt lucky and see a few flakes but unless you have elevation your chances of seeing accumulating snow are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I normally dont get any accumulating snows from just a frontal passage. I need something more organizd where I Live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So how are things looking for at least a brief snow shower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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