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January 5th-6th snow threat.

BadTrends

By BadTrends,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

FWIW Jason on the 13 news showed Asheville with 2.7 inches of snow which of course was from one computer model.  Northern Mtns. had anywhere from 4-6.   He said last night he looked for more snow out of this next system than we had on this last one and also the snow would fall to the valley floors very quickly Sunday evening.  I never thought I'd be hoping for just 2.7 inches but at the rate we've been going I'll take it for sure.      :snowwindow:

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

0z GFS looked a little wetter for portions of the NC piedmont than the previous runs. Even though it's possible, I'm still skeptical of anything more than a few back-end token flakes as the front rolls through. This is a fairly unique situation, so we'll see.

RAH does mention the possibility of rain changing to a quick burst of snow at the end for mainly the NW piedmont.

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

FFC talking about possible WSW.   Seems a little overkill.  

 

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST
OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD
AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE
INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME
TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS
LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.
AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS
OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC
GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED
WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD
CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING
RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

0z GFS looked a little wetter for portions of the NC piedmont than the previous runs. Even though it's possible, I'm still skeptical of anything more than a few back-end token flakes as the front rolls through. This is a fairly unique situation, so we'll see.

RAH does mention the possibility of rain changing to a quick burst of snow at the end for mainly the NW piedmont.

 

 

In a sense 0z gfs was more aggressive about developing h7 ull over the se and the base of the h7 trough and along the surface front. It still does on 6z that but later over the coastal area which will be nothing more than a dryer frontal passage.

gfs_namer_057_700_rh_ht.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

FFC talking about possible WSW. Seems a little overkill.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT

SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES

BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST

OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR

PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD

AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE

INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME

TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS

LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING

RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.

AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS

OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC

GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED

WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW

QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD

CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING

RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS

POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

I've seen this same sentiment posted a few times now with this and other events. It's not overkill. I WSWatch is a very good tool to use to alert the public to a potentially high impact winter event. Temps plunging rapidly, rain changing to snow, and the potential for icy roads during morning or evening rush would qualify as a high impact event. Most likely, they would issue the WSWatch at a longer lead and change it to a WWAdvisory before the event begins. A WSW can be issued at long leads in order to raise awareness. It does not mean it will turn into a WSWarning, and it is not overkill.

A Warning would be overkill, though. :)

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

In a sense 0z gfs was more aggressive about developing h7 ull over the se and the base of the h7 trough and along the surface front. It still does on 6z that but later over the coastal area which will be nothing more than a dryer frontal passage.

Yeah, makes sense. It would be awesome to see a quick inch of snow. It would be on the ground for a day or so. Best not to get hopes up yet, though.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Yeah, makes sense. It would be awesome to see a quick inch of snow. It would be on the ground for a day or so. Best not to get hopes up yet, though.

 

I think for folks like me stuck just east of the mountains our chances are around like 2% unless the models come in really wetter. We never luck out when it's got little going for it in the first place then has to go over the mountains. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Well on a good note the 12z NAM has come in juicier than it's previous run. Still looks like a cold chasing rain for most outside of the mountains. 

RAH is keeping an eye on this potential. They have added a chance of rain/snow showers to my back yard forecast. This is not much to hope on but it is something.

 

RAH:

MONDAY... A TRANSITION DAY FROM MILD TO BITTERLY COLD AND WINDY

WEATHER. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE FIRST IN THE NW AND SURGE SE

THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE

MORNING WILL BEGIN MILD... UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN

THE NW PIEDMONT. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT

WITH RAIN LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS TIME AS THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH.

THE LATEST EC AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/GFS SHOW JUST ENOUGH

MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT IN WHICH A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW

COULD FALL FOR AN HOUR OR SO OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE

MORNING. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS

THE BITTERLY COLD AIR SURGES IN - IT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIOD OF

SNOW BETWEEN 12Z-15Z IN THE NW ZONES... WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE POSSIBLY

ENDING AS A FLURRY IN THE NE ZONES WELL BEFORE NOON. TEMPS WILL

SHARPLY FALL DURING THE DAY... REACHING THE LOWER 20S AT GSO... 30

AT RDU AND 35 AT FAY BY 00Z/TUE. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS

POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT - WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY

OF A QUICK BURST OF SNOW AS THE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET. CONFIDENCE

IS LOW ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL... BUT VERY HIGH ON THE TEMPERATURES

PLUMMETING DURING THE DAY FROM THE NW. -BADGETT

 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

RAH is keeping an eye on this potential. They have added a chance of rain/snow showers to my back yard forecast. This is not much to hope on but it is something.

 

 

 

I know this means little right now but looking at 12z comp radar it shows nothing for anyone outside of the mountains once the front passes through. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking today's early arrival of almost full overcast, may help with freezing drizzle / rain in the morning? Local guys keep showing moisture return in the morning and temps getting down to 32-35 degree range. Today was supposed to get to 45 , but that will likely bust pretty badly as was supposed to be sunny with increasing clouds

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I know this means little right now but looking at 12z comp radar it shows nothing for anyone outside of the mountains once the front passes through. 

We would have to think this will be the ultimate outcome. As many have stated (many times), these types of situations do not normally produce.

 

But, as others have stated this is not a normal situation (cold wise). Models may be having some difficulties. At least that's what I'm hoping.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

GFS is definitely wetter this run. I have no idea if the precip all ahead of the front or not. The 6 hour panels show that the front has moved over probably more than half the state between the frames. The precip showing up behind the front probably all falls prior to the front moving through, but I can't tell from eWall.

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BillT

BillT

Posted
Posted

the air mass coming is something not seen often in this area, i think it will be cold enough and thick enough to extend the snow growth area very close to the surface and squeeze every bit of moisture around out of it as snow, a fine powdery type of snow, some of the snow wont show on radars because it isnt high enough in the atmosphere occurring under their scans......as i look at water vapor it seems energy in the new mexico and west texas area is gaining some moisture from the pacific and a couple of tiny flows of moisture are moving north from the gulf........this to me is more of a nowcasting event because the models havent had experience with this severe an air mass......feel free to correct in errors in my thoughts on this unfolding event

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Bsudweather

Bsudweather

Posted
Posted

the air mass coming is something not seen often in this area, i think it will be cold enough and thick enough to extend the snow growth area very close to the surface and squeeze every bit of moisture around out of it as snow, a fine powdery type of snow, some of the snow wont show on radars because it isnt high enough in the atmosphere occurring under their scans......as i look at water vapor it seems energy in the new mexico and west texas area is gaining some moisture from the pacific and a couple of tiny flows of moisture are moving north from the gulf........this to me is more of a nowcasting event because the models havent had experience with this severe an air mass......feel free to correct in errors in my thoughts on this unfolding event

I'm speaking for my area but it looks like the cold is gonna be chasing the moisture out. But even with that I think we see some flurries and possible snow showers but I could be wrong. Jmo

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

I'm speaking for my area but it looks like the cold is gonna be chasing the moisture out. But even with that I think we see some flurries and possible snow showers but I could be wrong. Jmo

Agreed... Unless we get a wave forming along the front, all you will see is perhaps a brief changeover...mood flakes.

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ASU2014

ASU2014

Posted
Posted

New GFS is much wetter with the FROPA, even a little .50 QPF showing up near TN border, up to .25 in AVL almost into the foothills. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

Please no more rain. Those amounts won't be too bad though unless it creates black ice.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

New GFS is much wetter with the FROPA, even a little .50 QPF showing up near TN border, up to .25 in AVL almost into the foothills. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

does this translate to snow sunday night, I'm not seeing anyone saying anything about the over night snow sunday night for the mtns.  n ga. had a wsw out yesterday I thought this morning gsp would have a wwa out for asheville for sunday night and monday morning.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

does this translate to snow sunday night, I'm not seeing anyone saying anything about the over night snow sunday night for the mtns.  n ga. had a wsw out yesterday I thought this morning gsp would have a wwa out for asheville for sunday night and monday morning.

The mountains could do ok with this... but east of the mountains its the theme the season. Cold chasing moisture.

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