RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Kinda surprised that LOT didn't extend the winter storm warning farther north. Seems like there's more than enough evidence at this point. Perhaps it's a duration thing though... I think it was a safe play because confidence is high in the southeast counties included in the warning that were already in the watch, but if current trends continue into 12z, the day shift will have time to adjust and provide adequate enough lead time since the snow is not starting until late in the day. Could definitely make a case for Cook and Will though because 12z guidance yesterday consistently pegged the southeastern portion of the counties for 6-7" amounts. Gino is working so we'll be in good hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS stays consistent. It's not as amped up as the other models but there was a more subtle shift in that direction. I'd be very worried if I were near the southern edge of the heavy snow band on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 AFD not out yet, but DTX is staying watch for now, probably due to the fact it won't start here until this evening. Edit: AFD out and they are going with a Warning yet the zones remain with a watch... As of now looks like north of Detroit say from flint to bad axe looking like the best spot. Frontal snow and the main show. Curious to see if dtx will continue to say heavier amounts to the se... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 IWX goes Warning 6-9" across the west and 8-12" for the eastern 2/3rds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 As of now looks like north of Detroit say from flint to bad axe looking like the best spot. Frontal snow and the main show. Curious to see if dtx will continue to say heavier amounts to the se... I think there will be 2 maximums in the area, one along the water and another probably running from Jonger up to Bad Axe where the frontal snows will be the best. This is not to say that most of the current watch/soon to be warning won't see a solid 6-10" isolated to 13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Depending on the method you use...The 6z NAM has 10.9-17.7" for ORD (0.91" QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 DTX says least snow along the far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH522 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AHEAD OF THENEXT STORM SYSTEM. ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL CROSS THE AREA ONSUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXTWEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. SHOULD ONLY SEESOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN.FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS CONSENSUS.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDSWILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH IN MOST PLACES.PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTOWESTERN LOCATIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THATWILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRALOHIO WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE.06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPINGLOW THAT WILL RIDE UP THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATESUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z/06Z NAM RUNS APPEAR TO TAKE THE LOWTOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. SO FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE FORMERMODELS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHTHE DAY. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXEXCEPT IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MUCH OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHEREIT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION COULD TURN TO ALL RAIN FOR A GOODPART OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOTWARM AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MIXEDPRECIPITATION COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX.HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THEREGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF SUNDAY. ALSO THIS WILL ALLOWCOLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW.PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND END DURING THEOVERNIGHT HOURS.WHERE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...SNOWTOTALS COULD END UP APPROACHING A FOOT. MOST PLACES WILL NOT GETTHAT MUCH DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINMIXING IN DURING SUNDAY. BUT EVEN SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BESUBSTANTIAL. HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORMWATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. EAST OF THE WARNING A NEW WATCHHAS BEEN POSTED. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BELATER /LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/ IN THE NEW WATCHAREA. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHEASTCOUNTIES. BUT THAT IS STILL WELL OUT IN TIME. SO HAVE KEPT THEMENTION OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO FOR THERE.ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THECENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDSWILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUTALLY LOW WIND CHILLS REMAININ THE FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...THESTRENGTH OF THE FORECAST SIGNAL ALONG WITH THE RARITY OF THE EVENTWARRANTS POSTING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z GFS is very different for us here in chicago with it dropping from 8-12 inches on areas that are forecasted to currently get 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Our favorite WRF-RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 High res liking the Benton Harbor to Bad Axe maxima idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Definitely need to start thinking rain for here, for a time anyway. 3z SREF are bringing those possibilities into Indy. Nonetheless, 3z snowfall plumes for Indiana locales BMG: 6.2" (12.7" high, 1.9" low) HUF: 9.8" (16.4" high, 3.1" low) FWA: 9.6" (17.9" high, 3.4" low) IND: 9.3" (17.7" high, 3.0" low) LAF: 10.5" (17.5" high, 4.9" low) MIE: 9.1" (16.5" high, 2.1" low) OKK: 10.7" (18.8" high, 5.1" low) SBN: 14.5" (27.0" high, 6.2" low) les enhancement here VPZ: 12.2" (19.9" high, 6.0" low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Definitely need to start thinking rain for here, for a time anyway. 3z SREF are bringing those possibilities into Indy. Nonetheless, 3z snowfall plumes for Indiana locales BMG: 6.2" (12.7" high, 1.9" low) HUF: 9.8" (16.4" high, 3.1" low) FWA: 9.6" (17.9" high, 3.4" low) IND: 9.3" (17.7" high, 3.0" low) LAF: 10.5" (17.5" high, 4.9" low) MIE: 9.1" (16.5" high, 2.1" low) OKK: 10.7" (18.8" high, 5.1" low) SBN: 14.5" (27.0" high, 6.2" low) les enhancement here VPZ: 12.2" (19.9" high, 6.0" low) Very very little chance of rain in IND and especially LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z models say i'm gonna get buried. Nice. Even the GFS now close to .70". EDIT: GFS over .70" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 DTX says least snow along the far SE. You guys have had a good run, it's the NW's turn for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Very very little chance of rain in IND and especially LAF. I agree, I just don't see much rain for either location, now if you get east of Dayton, all bets are off there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Geos special, lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Our favorite WRF-RIP Looks like lots of places will be ripping according to the RIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Spaulding Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The Weather Channel is showing a lot of green (rain) for us here in Dayton/SW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Point for Geos has only an inch, i'm having a hard time seeing any model showing amounts that low, in fact he almost looks like jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 DTX says least snow along the far SE.Reread the discussion. DTX says least snow with the fgen band but the most snow with the main storm. I don't mind if the NW burbs get a jackpot as they are certainly overdo (we surprisingly have been hogging all the biggies the last few years) but I will be mega mad if I sonehow get rain (would take a further shift west of the most wesy models, but as is CLE sees rain per nam and rgem).Obviously a snowpack is locked in place regardless, but this can give us some pretty epic depth if it goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The RAP is really hanging the fgen band up over the heart of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If LAF can stave off rain, this could be nice for some short time rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If LAF can stave off rain, this could be nice for some short time rippage. 6z 4km nam 36 radar.gif jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 seeing some reverse virga -Dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Reread the discussion. DTX says least snow with the fgen band but the most snow with the main storm. I don't mind if the NW burbs get a jackpot as they are certainly overdo (we surprisingly have been hogging all the biggies the last few years) but I will be mega mad if I sonehow get rain (would take a further shift west of the most wesy models, but as is CLE sees rain per nam and rgem). Obviously a snowpack is locked in place regardless, but this can give us some pretty epic depth if it goes right. I don't think you will see plain rain, but IP is quite possible. You know the drill though, for NW to do better, rain/IP has to usually be in play for the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Overnight model summary for YYZ is below. Euro has stayed consistent on amounts but the GFS is slowly warming up temp profiles towards the consensus. The GFS has come down from the 9"+ amounts that it previously had to accums near 7" as ratios have lowered to near 10:1. Nice to know we've reached a consensus. 0z euro: 6-7" 6z GFS: 7-9" 6z NAM: Trace SREF mean: 4.8" RGEM: 2-4" Ec ENS: 5-6" GEFS/R: 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I don't think you will see plain rain, but IP is quite possible. You know the drill though, for NW to do better, rain/IP has to usually be in play for the river.That's the dilemma. When we cream you guys snowstorm wise (dec 26, 2012...dec 14, 2014...dec 31, 13 - jan 3, 14) you get pixie dust. When you cream us, its pick which evil is at play (dryslot, sleet, rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What are my chances of getting into O'Hare at 9:45 tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That's the dilemma. When we cream you guys snowstorm wise (dec 26, 2012...dec 14, 2014...dec 31, 13 - jan 3, 14) you get pixie dust. When you cream us, its pick which evil is at play (dryslot, sleet, rain). The only time we ever seem to beat downriver during very cold events is where a lucky band sets up over central Oakland over to Shiawassee county. Usually we always get poor snowfall rates in storms like this past weekend when cold air isn't an issue for either of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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