WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 NAM too north as per usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Look at the upper level dynamics everything is easily 50-75 miles North. I am and I am not seeing any major differences between the current run and the previous 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That is quite different IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 SLP near Vincennes, IN this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 I am and I am not seeing any major differences between the current run and the previous 2. It's easily farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 SLP near Vincennes, IN this run. Yeah 36hr map compared to 42/48hr maps from 00/18z do show that it is a bit stronger later in the run. Everything up until that point however was a carbon copy. Looks like the PV is a bit shifted East which is allowing more phasing/further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It's easily farther NW. Read above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 SLP near Vincennes, IN this run. Beautiful. North of EVV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Historic for the STL metro. It's at least 50% wetter than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN upgraded watches to warnings and added watches eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 988mb near London Ontario, if this were to verify DTX might need Blizzard Warnings at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It's easily farther NW. I'm almost fighting mixing on this run. I guess this is officially the first time I am a touch concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm almost fighting mixing on this run. I guess this is officially the first time I am a touch concerned. lol, I hear ya but unless the SLP track over us it won't matter the rain/snow line will hug the SLP. But yeah. Seeing the rain/snow line over me right as it starts is a bit scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm almost fighting mixing on this run. I guess this is officially the first time I am a touch concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 405 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATIONS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING 8 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. * OTHER IMPACTS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOT goes WSW for SE counites and WWA for central counties... Including ORD/Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 AFD not out yet, but DTX is staying watch for now, probably due to the fact it won't start here until this evening. Edit: AFD out and they are going with a Warning yet the zones remain with a watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Great post and great thoughts, I have to agree with you here especially about the fgen. If I had to pick a track with the synoptic system I would probably pick something close to the RGEM from 00z maybe a touch east of that. The NAM is a bit unrealistically left on this one, and like we have seen all winter, will correct east some throughout the day today. Like you mention though, I also agree the GFS/Euro combo is a bit too far east on this one and will probably correct left a bit throughout the day. Thanks, figured I'd throw some of that into the mix for this event. I can tell you that one of our forecasters was pretty impressed with the fgen and did mention similar thoughts that a model such as the NAM will be more likely to resolve that feature. The trends with the 6z higher res guidance are pretty interesting, who knows maybe the meso models will lead the day on this one, but it is tough to completely discount the global guidance (the GGEM being farther NW than the Euro and GFS notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILX issues Winter storm warning for everyone along and E of IL River and a WWA for west of the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOT FOR THE SNOWFALL...THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL BE A STRONGSOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. THESHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEDEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WITH THE EXCEPTIONOF THE 00Z NAM WHICH IS TRENDING STRONGER AND FASTER THAN THE OTHERGUIDANCE. HAVE ACTUALLY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST ATHE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A REASONABLE CONSISTENTSOLUTION...TRACKING THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICHWOULD FAVOR THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIESTSNOWFALL. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ON HOW THE SRN STREAMSHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND COLDFRONT...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE COLD...DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLDFRONT WILL FILTER IN OVER THE CWA FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ARELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE SNOWFALL...WITH ACCUMULATIONSDROPPING OFF QUICKLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE PREFERRED QPFGUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWFAND THE 06Z 6HRLY WPC QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE HEAVIEST...AND MOSTUNIFORM QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THEILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS. SO...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTERSTORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THECOLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONTBEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASSIN PLACE...INITIAL SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUTAS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THISEVENING...THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL SLOW AND ACCUMULATION RATESSHOULD INCREASE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE WITH THE STRONGISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM. THEHEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ANDPERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULDGENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GARY TO PONTIAC WHERE UPWARDS OF 6TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.HAVE ALSO OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OFTHE AREA NORTH OF THE GARY TO PONTIAC LINE TO A LINE ROUGHLY FROMTHE NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS TO NORTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY WHERE ASWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE FAR NORTHERN ANDNORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO AREAWILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE MAYBE A WILDCARD IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THELOCAL HIGH RES 8KM WRFARW DEVELOPS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME ALONG ACONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE SFC TO 850MB DELTA-TSHOULD BE AROUND 13C WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG SO LOWLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE...THE CONCERNS WILL BE ADEQUATEINVERSION DEPTH AND STRONG NORTH WINDS DISRUPTING LAKE EFFECTTHERMALS. SO...HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT A LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTHE CURRENT SNOW TOTALS FOR NWRN INDIANA...BUT THIS WILL BE AFEATURE TO WATCH FOR ON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN upped total. Had 6-10 earlier and now says 8-12. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH420 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT......BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY ANDSUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE STORM WILL USHER INTHE COLDEST WEATHER IN 20 YEARS.INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-060-061-041730-/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0001.140105T0500Z-140106T0900Z//O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0002.140105T1000Z-140106T0600Z//O.NEW.KILN.WC.A.0001.140106T1000Z-140107T2200Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...PIQUA...URBANA...EATON...DAYTON420 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM ESTMONDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AMSUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS ALSO BEENISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BYEXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOMEHEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER OFF SUNDAYEVENING. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAYNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOREDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE FRIGIDCONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE.PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY.* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 BELOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...15TO 20 BELOW MONDAY NIGHT...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ON TUESDAY.* WIND CHILL READINGS...15 TO 25 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THENDROPPING TO 30 TO 40 BELOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAYMORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Significant amounts of snow on the 06Z RGEM. Detroit barely misses Rain/Snow line and cashes in on hefty snow totals. Really couldn't afford any track further N/W than this without p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Kinda surprised that LOT didn't extend the winter storm warning farther north. Seems like there's more than enough evidence at this point. Perhaps it's a duration thing though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 6z GFS is coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Kinda surprised that LOT didn't extend the winter storm warning farther north. Seems like there's more than enough evidence at this point. Perhaps it's a duration thing though... Don't think they are buying into the NAM/RGEM. These two models seem to always shift way northwest close to event only to begin correcting back SE. The EURO/GFS and it's ensembles are in great agreement on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I guess they don't follow the RGM Waiting on the AFD to update but earlier they said they leaned heavily on the GFS. Pretty obvious that hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Here we go..already can tell by 6hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Don't think they are buying into the NAM/RGEM. These two models seem to always shift way northwest close to event only to begin correcting back SE. The EURO/GFS and it's ensembles are in great agreement on track. Even the Euro and GFS bring 6+ into at least part of Cook county/Chicago factoring in higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOT could of issued warnings. 6z GFS already with .50"+ by 9z Sunday right through chi metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS stays consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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