Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Having those sub-490 thicknesses so close to a baroclinic zone in the Great Lakes region is almost unprecedented. Interesting point...I wonder how common it is. Even the 1978 blizzard didn't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For YYZ; Nam: 2-3" GFS: 7-9" GGEM: 7-10" Take it FWIW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 All the tv mets here in Chicago are showing snowfall maps generally ranging from 4 to 8 inches for ORD. WSW coming I think if the EURO shows the trend too. > 42 hours. Wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah GGEM is further NW, especially with frontal snows. do you have a total qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 do you have a total qpf map? Look above. More coming for folks eastwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Look above. More coming for folks eastwards. sorry about that must've been posting at same time appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep I agree Geos. WSW will likely be expanded north in LOT if trends continue. Not sure if they would go all the way to the WI line. But you can't/won't be denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For YYZ; Nam: 2-3" GFS: 7-9" GGEM: 7-10" Take it FWIW! What site r u using for GEM snowfall? Wxbell/meteocentre maps not fully updated yet. Ukie looks like a huge hit around here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep I agree Geos. WSW will likely be expanded north in LOT if trends continue. Not sure if they would go all the way to the WI line. But you can't/won't be denied! WWA areas north of current Watch....warning issued when depths at ORD hit 7inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 So basically the 00z runs of the GFS/GGEM/UKMET all have the same track. NAM/RGEM on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Glad to see the 4km NAM lost the dry slot Sheesh, significant differences in PV placement on the NAM and GFS. Almost as if the models aren't used to dealing with the polar vortex visiting Lake Superior with a potential bomb close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah GGEM is further NW. Yep. SLP tracks across SW. IN and then to DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Glad to see the 4km NAM lost the dry slot Almost as if the models aren't used to dealing with the polar vortex visiting Lake Superior with a potential bomb close by Haha, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 > 66 hours. Indiana looks great still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 So basically the 00z runs of the GFS/GGEM/UKMET all have the same track. NAM/RGEM on their own. The GGEM is in the NW camp. 12z had a 1002mb SLP just SE of Cincinnati. 0z has a 1002mb SLP over DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What site r u using for GEM snowfall? Wxbell/meteocentre maps not fully updated yet. Ukie looks like a huge hit around here too. I have a friend who has access to this stuff. He just texts me when it comes in. Thats what he told me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I have a friend who has access to this stuff. He just texts me when it comes in. Thats what he told me, lol. Looking at wxbell maps, its 3-5" through the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looking at wxbell maps, its 3-5" through the GTA. Are you still confident we could see 6-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looking at wxbell maps, its 3-5" through the GTA. Precip maps dictate all snow in the GTA. But im assuming he used wrong ratios. It would equate to 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 SREF has a mean of 10-15" but that's only because there are three outputs over 20", with about 10 models at or below 7". I think 6-8" is pretty solid for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 WPC not using NAM MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1154 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014VALID JAN 04/0000 UTC THRU JAN 07/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORTRANGE FORECASTS.NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW(S) IMPACTING THEN-CNTRL U.S. TODAYCOLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON 00Z NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z NAM WHICHSLOWED DOWN WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY TODAY OVER THEN-CNTRL STATES. THE PREVIOUS 12Z NAM APPEARED OKAY AND IT IS NOTCLEAR WHY THE RECENT NAM SHIFTED SLOWER. REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCEFORMS A GOOD COMPROMISE.BURGEONING TROUGH MID-CONTINENTSURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKESFROM SAT THROUGH MON~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACELOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC BY MONMORNING...WITH THE EC...GEFS...AND CMC MEMBERS MOSTLY AGREEING ONA POSITION NOW. THE 12Z UKMET IS LIKELY TOO SLOW GIVEN A VASTMAJORITY OF QUICKER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NAM IS THE STRONGESTOF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMCHAVE GOOD AGREEMENT AND REPRESENT THE BEST COMPROMISE OF THECURRENT AVAILABLE MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Precip maps dictate all snow in the GTA. But im assuming he used wrong ratios. It would equate to 4-6".Heres a closer look. Widespread 4-5" amounts in the GTA. Areas north of newmarket get into the 6"+ snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Heres a closer look. Widespread 4-5" amounts in the GTA. Areas north of newmarket get into the 6"+ snows. image.jpg Hmm its a sharp dividing line, but thanks for that! A general 4-6" is the common theme amongst most models since 12z today expect the 0z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the hi-res NMM and ARW do with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For YYZ; Nam: 2-3" GFS: 7-9" GGEM: 7-10" Take it FWIW! Local Toronto T.V mets are saying 10-20 cm. maybe. Have always watched Don Paul on WIVB in Buffalo for general regional overview. He had a light mixed precip. on his maps. Nothing much for synoptic system in Golden Horseshoe... what he seemed concerned about was wind chills and lake snows after. There isn't an agreed general consensus for this storm in YYZ anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 hi-res ARW popping a nice LES band as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sharp and close cut off south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Skilling via FB .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 So both the hi res NMM/ARW with .50"+ liquid here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.