cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm getting close to that NW edge also. Still pouring though. I'm screaming at the radar screen like in golf....biiiiiiiiiiiiiite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm screaming at the radar screen like in golf....biiiiiiiiiiiiiite!!! Hahaha. Give it a little backspin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hahaha. Give it a little backspin Ha, indeed. Poor DVN. Always with these extreme gradients of some form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 1.5-2 inches here in South Elgin (I'm at work right now and just took a quick estimate while brushing my car off on my dinner break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 18z NAM valid at 0z looks like it may be a *touch* too far north with arctic boundary when compared to 23z sfc analysis but it's not significant. I hope it makes more progress to the SE obviously but I wouldn't be forecasting that at this point. Unless you're seeing something that I'm missing. So you think the Euro and GFS are totally off? They both had 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 850s get so baggy over the fgen band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 HRRR picking up on a LES band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 1.6" here thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So you think the Euro and GFS are totally off? They both had 5-7" I think the higher resolution models may be picking up on the more robust development of the sfc low. Considering that the GFS and EURO inched westward, they may be playing catchup. My thinking is 1-2" of slop in Toronto before a change over to rain. But if the RGEM and NAM are off by as little as 25 miles it may double those numbers or a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I was just given a 2" estimate at home in Elgin (west of Randall)...5WSW of downtown according to LOT wen I submit reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 850s get so baggy over the fgen band. jet location is setting up nicely ... near perfectly.... steady snow for quite awhile now into the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think the higher resolution models may be picking up on the more robust development of the sfc low. Considering that the GFS and EURO inched westward, they may be playing catchup. My thinking is 1-2" of slop in Toronto before a change over to rain. But if the RGEM and NAM are off by as little as 25 miles it may double those numbers or a bit more. I'm saying no rain or a very brief mix of rain/snow during the day tomorrow and widespread 5" except less along downtown/lakeshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just not seeing any great rates and accumulations out here. Warm temps. are certainly impacting accumulations at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 snowing lightly here. The biggest snow we ever had was back in 1967. That storm tracked from Chicago towards me. Hoping what ever Chicago gets I'll get the same this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just not seeing any great rates and accumulations out here. Warm temps. are certainly impacting accumulations at this point. really? I'm actually seeing pretty nice accumulation on busy main streets. Snow is definitely more wet though, caking nicely to trees. Combined with the existing pack, it looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just not seeing any great rates and accumulations out here. Warm temps. are certainly impacting accumulations at this point. Not surface temps...But UA temps a bit. Still should see ratios increase as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 loaded up on beer and snacks. looked like people were stocking up for a hurricane...mob scene Man, the wife went to Krogers around 2:30 or so this afternoon. It was packed solid and the entire parking lot was full. She said the shelves were starting to empty out and if she'd been another hour later she likely wouldn't have got what we needed. Luckily, we just stocked up a few days ago and didn't really need a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just not seeing any great rates and accumulations out here. Warm temps. are certainly impacting accumulations at this point. +1 here too. I dont think we will exceed 4" on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 +1 here too. I dont think we will exceed 4" on this one likely to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Small flakes falling. Definitely not the huge puffballs from earlier. Riding the edge, NW edge approximately 15-20 miles away. Should have a good amount more time under the band. As cyclone said, "bite!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm saying no rain or a very brief mix of rain/snow during the day tomorrow and widespread 5" except less along downtown/lakeshore My final call posted a few pages back is for 1-3" for Toronto. But as SSC mentioned, any slight shift to the E by the NAM and RGEM could be huge. If that happens, there will be a longer period of snow before a brief change to rain (if it happens). I expect the low to track somewhere around our area. Where it exactly tracks will determine how much snow we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm saying no rain or a very brief mix of rain/snow during the day tomorrow and widespread 5" except less along downtown/lakeshore Ok, let's see. Were you calling for 7" earlier or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Aaaand it's completely shut off now. Hope we see it return at some point later tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Digging this part from IWX's AFD. Also, don't be driving around tomorrow N IN peeps. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ACTUAL SFC LOW AND IT CONTINUED DEEPENING ANDNW SHIFT IN TRACK TRENDS. AT PRESENT THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SET TOTRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LIMA AND COLUMBUS OHIO SUNDAY EVENING. THISTRACK FORCES A NEED TO EXPAND HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS NW WITHMODELS/HPC GUIDANCE ALL LEANING TOWARDS UPWARD OF A HALF INCH OF QPFFOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON. LOCATIONS INTHE FAR NW REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AS ANY FURTHERTRANSITION NW IN TRACK WILL INCREASE TOTALS FURTHER. 4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL JUST IN THE ABOVE NOTED 6 HOUR WINDOW ASINSANE FORCING AND ABUNDANT MSTR ALL COMBINE TO GIVE WHAT MAY END UPAS 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES. THE MORE NW TRACK ALSO HASIMPLICATIONS ON ARRIVAL OF GUSTY WINDS...CAUSING A DELAY IN THESTRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF BLOWING SNOW INNW AREAS TILL AFTER 18Z AND ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALLHEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW BUT EXTENSION IN TIME WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED WELL INTO THE LONG TERM WITH THREAT FOR BLOWINGSNOW CONTINUING. TRAVEL SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY STARTING DURING THEAFTERNOON...IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You're gonna get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Fgen band is wider and a bit further south than I thought it would be in MI. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 COLTS WIN! Bring on whatever we get now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just about every local met I've talked to likes a ECMWF/GGEM/GFS blend rather than the RGEM/NAM combo. Works with me but it's a dangerous game to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 A little nostalgia, but back in the WWBB and early EUSWX days...this was our go to map during winter storms. The old unisys 3 hour pressure change map. Things were simpler back then. But it usually led to arguments about where the storm was heading. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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