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January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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18z NAM valid at 0z looks like it may be a *touch* too far north with arctic boundary when compared to 23z sfc analysis but it's not significant. I hope it makes more progress to the SE obviously but I wouldn't be forecasting that at this point.

 

Unless you're seeing something that I'm missing.

 

So you think the Euro and GFS are totally off? They both had 5-7"

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So you think the Euro and GFS are totally off? They both had 5-7"

 

I think the higher resolution models may be picking up on the more robust development of the sfc low. Considering that the GFS and EURO inched westward, they may be playing catchup.

 

My thinking is 1-2" of slop in Toronto before a change over to rain. But if the RGEM and NAM are off by as little as 25 miles it may double those numbers or a bit more.

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I think the higher resolution models may be picking up on the more robust development of the sfc low. Considering that the GFS and EURO inched westward, they may be playing catchup.

 

My thinking is 1-2" of slop in Toronto before a change over to rain. But if the RGEM and NAM are off by as little as 25 miles it may double those numbers or a bit more.

 

I'm saying no rain or a very brief mix of rain/snow during the day tomorrow and widespread 5" except less along downtown/lakeshore

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Just not seeing any great rates and accumulations out here. Warm temps. are certainly impacting accumulations at this point.

 

 

really?  I'm actually seeing pretty nice accumulation on busy main streets.  Snow is definitely more wet though, caking nicely to trees. Combined with the existing pack, it looks pretty sweet.

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loaded up on beer and snacks.

 

looked like people were stocking up for a hurricane...mob scene

Man, the wife went to Krogers around 2:30 or so this afternoon. It was packed solid and the entire parking lot was full. She said the shelves were starting to empty out and if she'd been another hour later she likely wouldn't have got what we needed. Luckily, we just stocked up a few days ago and didn't really need a lot. 

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I'm saying no rain or a very brief mix of rain/snow during the day tomorrow and widespread 5" except less along downtown/lakeshore

My final call posted a few pages back is for 1-3" for Toronto. But as SSC mentioned, any slight shift to the E by the NAM and RGEM could be huge. If that happens, there will be a longer period of snow before a brief change to rain (if it happens). I expect the low to track somewhere around our area. Where it exactly tracks will determine how much snow we will get.

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Digging this part from IWX's AFD. Also, don't be driving around tomorrow N IN peeps.

 

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ACTUAL SFC LOW AND IT CONTINUED DEEPENING AND
NW SHIFT IN TRACK TRENDS. AT PRESENT THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SET TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LIMA AND COLUMBUS OHIO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
TRACK FORCES A NEED TO EXPAND HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS NW WITH
MODELS/HPC GUIDANCE ALL LEANING TOWARDS UPWARD OF A HALF INCH OF QPF
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON. LOCATIONS IN
THE FAR NW REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AS ANY FURTHER
TRANSITION NW IN TRACK WILL INCREASE TOTALS FURTHER. 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL JUST IN THE ABOVE NOTED 6 HOUR WINDOW AS
INSANE FORCING AND ABUNDANT MSTR ALL COMBINE TO GIVE WHAT MAY END UP
AS 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES.
THE MORE NW TRACK ALSO HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON ARRIVAL OF GUSTY WINDS...CAUSING A DELAY IN THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF BLOWING SNOW IN
NW AREAS TILL AFTER 18Z AND ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW BUT EXTENSION IN TIME WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WELL INTO THE LONG TERM WITH THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW CONTINUING. TRAVEL SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY STARTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

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A little nostalgia, but back in the WWBB and early EUSWX days...this was our go to map during winter storms. The old unisys 3 hour pressure change map. Things were simpler back then. But it usually led to arguments about where the storm was heading. Good times.

 

sfc_con_3pres.gif

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