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January 3-6th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Geos is riding the line like a boss...still think we take him down this time

 

It'll probably snow by you longer than here, so I would expect you to pass my total up later.

 

Right now it is ripping hard core.

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1.2" the total here.  These last few bursts have been nice.  Thought we'd have more when I went to measure, but the snow is wetter than I thought.  Got so used to the high ratio fluff lol.  Good quality snow though.  Back edge is right here, but it is slowing in it's southeast progress.  Prob a bit too late though, as it looks like we're in for a dry stretch. 

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Euro and GFS.

 

Current obs match closer to them than the NAM and GEM initialization

 

18z NAM valid at 0z looks like it may be a *touch* too far north with arctic boundary when compared to 23z sfc analysis but it's not significant. I hope it makes more progress to the SE obviously but I wouldn't be forecasting that at this point.

 

Unless you're seeing something that I'm missing.

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You could make a case that the fgen band is a hair south of the 18z NAM in particular but it's not by much.  Also, how this would affect the main system is not entirely clear...there have been some runs that have gone south with that band and north with the main system, etc.  There's not a lot of mystery pieces left to be sampled at this point.  My guess is fairly status quo on the 00z runs...maybe shifts up to 20-30 miles either way which could make a difference if you're riding the edge.

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You could make a case that the fgen band is a hair south of the 18z NAM in particular but it's not by much.  Also, how this would affect the main system is not entirely clear...there have been some runs that have gone south with that band and north with the main system, etc.  There's not a lot of mystery pieces left to be sampled at this point.  My guess is fairly status quo on the 00z runs...maybe shifts up to 20-30 miles either way which could make a difference if you're riding the edge.

The problem with this is the the SE edge of snow has a spread of over 75 miles which becomes a pretty big issue if there's only minor trends. One or both model camps need to cave or converge into a good track. Whether that's rain or snow here I don't know but we won't be seeing a 100 mile shift out of this storm anymore. 

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