A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 cref_sfc_f24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 +sn. Flat out ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 serious snowfall rates here. Rip City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 very light here...just spitting a flake out here and there...good sized ones when they do float down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 serious snowfall rates here. Rip City yeah....solid SN brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well, maybe the 18z RGEM ain't that bad for LAF. Close though. Yeah I thought it looked about the same for us but hard to tell with the time intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN pretty much holding its ground. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH407 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT......BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY ANDSUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE STORM WILL USHER INTHE COLDEST WEATHER IN 20 YEARS.INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-060-061-050515-/O.UPG.KILN.WC.A.0001.140106T1000Z-140107T2200Z//O.NEW.KILN.WC.W.0001.140106T0900Z-140107T2200Z//O.EXT.KILN.WS.W.0002.140105T1000Z-140106T0900Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...PIQUA...URBANA...EATON...DAYTON407 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AMEST MONDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINDCHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM ESTTUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BYEXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOMEHEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWWILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLINGTEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLYMONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROMMONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOREDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE FRIGIDCONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE.PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.* WINDS...WINDS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ONMONDAY...REACHING VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON MONDAY NIGHT.TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.* WIND CHILL READINGS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOWZERO ON MONDAY MORNING...FALLING TO 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO FROMMONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 very light here...just spitting a flake out here and there...good sized ones when they do float down though. What part of the city are you in? It's actually starting to snow pretty decently here now. Probably pushing low-end moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://vidanay.dyndns.org:8080/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 acsnw_sfc_f24.png Oh man. I would sell my left nut for that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Oh man. I would sell my left nut for that scenario. Saved for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://vidanay.dyndns.org:8080/ nice legit +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Heavier band moved in and it was pouring snow pellets...But now rippage with increasing flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Saved for future reference. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Right by Genesis East in East Davenport Cyclone... snow has really picked up in the last five minutes or so now. approaching moderate intensity, good sized flakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Right by Genesis East in East Davenport Cyclone... snow has really picked up in the last five minutes or so now. approaching moderate intensity, good sized flakes too. Ah, cool. Hope it continues. QCA definitely walking a fine line with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Even under the lighter returns, good rate continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Picked up 0.5" earlier, steady light snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z 4km NAM Allegan area gonna get smoked lol. That would suck here. Though it is looking more likely it's gonna happen here. Euro is also showing something similar here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOT... WE UPGRADED A MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO A WINTER STORMWARNING THIS MORNING. THE MAIN REASONS FOR DOING THIS WAS THAT ITAPPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTWILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES RIGHT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METROAREA AND POINTS WEST. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS FARNORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATEDWITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLDFRONT. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF THE PRECIP BEGINNINGIN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET PRIOR TO SWITCHING OVERTO SNOW. LOCAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF MDW INDICATE A SHALLOW WARMLAYER AROUND 800 MB JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRYAIR IN THIS LAYER...EVAPORATION COOLING IS LIKELY LEADING TO THEQUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS MIX...IHAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HANDLE IT WITH NOWCASTS.HIRES GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...CONTINUESTO SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF FGEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THENIGHT RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-88CORRIDOR. THE ASSOCIATED FGEN CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BECOMPLEMENTED BY INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THERIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPINGALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EMERGING LARGER SCALE UPPERTROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOODFORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE DGZ FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIMETONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATETHAT COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW THE DGZ TO BECOME DEEPER THROUGH THENIGHT...WITH A NEGATIVE EPV LAYER RISING ABOVE 550 MB. THIS SHOULDRESULT IN SOME FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS...IN THE 15 TO 1RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THISCOULD RESULT IN 0.5 TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES WITH AQUICK 4 TO 7 INCHES BY MORNING ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THISFRONTAL FORCING APPEARS TO BE LESS PROGRESS THEN PREVIOUSLYTHOUGH...HENCE THE FORECASTED HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH.DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUSTHINKING. IT STILL APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSSTHE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF MY AREA ON SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEEVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSSEAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE DAY. THISWILL BE THE BE THE REGION WHERE THE BEST STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCINGFOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THEDEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.SO OVERALL...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS FARNORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT...AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ANDNORTHWESTERN INDIANA ON SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR THAT THEY WILLFALL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WARNED AREA.HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. MODELBUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAKE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE ALLTHAT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNTIL YOU GET NORTH OF THEILLINOIS WATERS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HINTS ATSOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT GETTING INTO AREAS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERNILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA SHORES ON SUNDAY. BETTERTHERMODYNAMICS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SET UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THEBITTERLY COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE QUICK SWITCH TO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOWMAY RESULT IN MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITYIMPACTING THE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORES.THE OTHER INCREASING CONCERN WILL BE FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW...AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAYNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILLINCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO OR ABOVE 35 MPH DURINGTHIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSSALL OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BLIZZARDCONDITIONS COULD BE MET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ANDSOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING. WETALKED ABOUT THE IDEA OF UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORMWARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE WILL HOLDOFF...BUT I WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT AND HIT ITHARDER IN THE WSW.SNOWFALL WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITHTHE EXCEPTION OF ARES IN PORTER COUNTY...WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS MAY LINGER. THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE DANGEROUS COLDTHAT WILL SPILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 agreed with the fine line here cyclone.... could see a winter storm warning being needed east of the Mississippi river and south of 80 for the IL counties in that area bordered by maybe a tier or two of Winter Weather advisories. May be one of those situations where KMLI gets 5 or 6" of fluff and KDVN only gets a couple inches at best...very tight gradients over a 10-20mi wide zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 My call is 7.2" for Detroit, mainly because we will miss out on the arctic front snow. That said, this is all pending the snowfall rates with the deformaton axis, and how long it pivots overhead. I can envision a quick 12" Sunday Afternoon/Evening if it trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOT mentioned possible upgraded to blizzard warnings, passing it along to next shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There's now a 90 mile gap between Environment Canada's snowfall warning and Cleveland's winter storm warning. 4-8" for Erie according to CLE, but 2-4" according to EC with rain for areas near Lake Erie in Ontario. Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm in 2012 when NWS had Srn ON surrounding with blizzard/winter storm warnings, but EC wouldn't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z GFS with a decent jump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Gfs taking a jog nw at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN AFD not using NAM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH419 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A MIX OFHEAVY SNOW AND RAIN. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THESTORM FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAINWILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THISEVENING...AS CURRENT HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPEROHIO VALLEY MOVE NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WINTERSTORM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOWOVER THE REGION...AND CLOUDS MOVING IN...IT APPEARS THAT MIN TEMPSWILL AGAIN BE REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACETEMPERATURES (AND CERTAINLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT) WILL ALREADY BEWARMING BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD BACK TO AFTER 12Z ASIDE FROM THE FARNORTHWEST CWA...THOUGH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD POSSIBLYLEAD TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 06Z ELSEWHERE IN THEWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTEDTO OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDSWILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH IN MOST PLACES.PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTOWESTERN LOCATIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THATWILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRALOHIO WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE.06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPINGLOW THAT WILL RIDE UP THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATESUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z/06Z NAM RUNS APPEAR TO TAKE THE LOWTOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. SO FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE FORMERMODELS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHTHE DAY. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXEXCEPT IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND MUCH OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHEREIT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION COULD TURN TO ALL RAIN FOR A GOODPART OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOTWARM AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MIXEDPRECIPITATION COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX.HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THEREGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF SUNDAY. ALSO THIS WILL ALLOWCOLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW.PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND END DURING THEOVERNIGHT HOURS.WHERE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...SNOWTOTALS COULD END UP APPROACHING A FOOT. MOST PLACES WILL NOT GETTHAT MUCH DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINMIXING IN DURING SUNDAY. BUT EVEN SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BESUBSTANTIAL. HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORMWATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. EAST OF THE WARNING A NEW WATCHHAS BEEN POSTED. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BELATER /LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/ IN THE NEW WATCHAREA. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHEASTCOUNTIES. BUT THAT IS STILL WELL OUT IN TIME. SO HAVE KEPT THEMENTION OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO FOR THERE.ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THECENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDSWILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUTALLY LOW WIND CHILLS REMAININ THE FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...THESTRENGTH OF THE FORECAST SIGNAL ALONG WITH THE RARITY OF THE EVENTWARRANTS POSTING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 agreed with the fine line here cyclone.... could see a winter storm warning being needed east of the Mississippi river and south of 80 for the IL counties in that area bordered by maybe a tier or two of Winter Weather advisories. May be one of those situations where KMLI gets 5 or 6" of fluff and KDVN only gets a couple inches at best...very tight gradients over a 10-20mi wide zone. Wow, it looks like DVN didn't issue an advisory for Scott/Rock Island/Whiteside. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 18z GFS with a decent jump NW. Classic GFS baby stepping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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